The Front Office Was Right to Bet on Their Roster

[jorgenswest]

If they add a couple of relievers and let go of Pagán as many suggested, are they better? Do Funderburk and Varland get an opportunity? I would suggest the bullpen is better having not made a deal for a reliever at the deadline. The performance of the relievers in MLBTR’s top 50 trade targets is more miss than hit.

The one deal it was reported by Heyman that they were close was for Pham. The DBacks ended up winning that deal right at the end. They gave up a top 50 international prospect. The Twins could have beaten that offer. Ariel Castro plus another might have done it. Pham (0.5 WAR) is performing a little better than Luplow (0.3 WAR) but your top international prospect plus more is not an insignificant cost for a marginal improvement.

[Riverbrian]

19 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

If they add a couple of relievers and let go of Pagán as many suggested, are they better? Do Funderburk and Varland get an opportunity? I would suggest the bullpen is better having not made a deal for a reliever at the deadline. The performance of the relievers in MLBTR’s top 50 trade targets is more miss than hit.

The one deal it was reported by Heyman that they were close was for Pham. The DBacks ended up winning that deal right at the end. They gave up a top 50 international prospect. The Twins could have beaten that offer. Ariel Castro plus another might have done it. Pham (0.5 WAR) is performing a little better than Luplow (0.3 WAR) but your top international prospect plus more is not an insignificant cost for a marginal improvement.

Sure you can make that argument and it looks great on paper... I can't argue the value of reliever X compared to what Funderburk and Varland are doing at the moment.

However... the argument assumes that Funderburk and Varland remain healthy and available and it also assumes that Funderburk and Varland actually perform decently which was not yet determined at the trade deadline either.   

It also assumes that nearly everybody in the bullpen remains healthy throughout August and September because a loss at the back end of the bullpen shortens the bullpen immediately. The same goes for all of our position players remaining healthy. 

The direct comparison argument to see if the move improved a team could be made for every team that bought.  

The following teams bought at the trade deadline:

Orioles: Fujimami, Flaherty

Jays: Cabrera, Hicks, DeJong

Rays: Civale, Sampson

Yankees: Middleton

Rangers: Chapman, Scherzer, Montgomery, Stratton, Hedges

Astros: Graveman, Verlander

Angels: Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone

Braves: Johnson, Lopez, Hand

Phillies: Castro, Lorenzen

Marlins: Robertson, Burger, Bell

Brewers: Santana, Canha, Chafin

Cubs: Candelario, Cuas

Reds: Moll

Dodgers: Kike, Rosario, Lynn, Kelly, Yarbrough

D-Backs: Sewald, Peterson, Pham

Giants: Pollack

Padres: Gamel, Hill, Choi, Barlow

The Guardians and Mariners sold and the Twins traded Lopez for Floro which is basically standing still if not a step down from Lopez. I'll also say that Reds... slightly bought with the only addition being Moll so they almost a stand still like the Twins. 

Everybody else plus some that shouldn't have... attempted to get better. 

 

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

However... the argument assumes that Funderburk and Varland remain healthy and available and it also assumes that Funderburk and Varland actually perform decently which was not yet determined at the trade deadline either. 

Mine was all hindsight. I didn’t make those arguments at the deadline. I couldn’t see Funderburk helping or a home run prone Varland adding so much in relief. At the all star break I thought they should move on from Kepler and Pagán. Who would have though their greatest need heading into the last six games would be third base and shortstop?

Looking at the results my assumptions were wrong. After the deadline they have been among the better teams in the AL. They have won many series where they couldn’t even put more than two together in the first 100 games. They had what they needed on the roster already to get better. I couldn’t see it. I can acknowledge the results though.

[KBJ1]

Comes down to.health, as usual for this team. Don't really see Correa recovering in two weeks, Buxton should be shelved.

Stewart, Paddock coming back give the bullpen hope.

Lewis is key. If he can't go full tilt, they are doomed.

Maeda clearly deserves to start game 3.

Ryan is is not needed in the first round and should be left off the roster as long as the last man in the bullpen isn't Kuechel, Hendrick, Sands, Winder, Moran, Floro or any of the other stiffs that have pitched out of the pen this year. 

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Mine was all hindsight. I didn’t make those arguments at the deadline. I couldn’t see Funderburk helping or a home run prone Varland adding so much in relief. At the all star break I thought they should move on from Kepler and Pagán. Who would have though their greatest need heading into the last six games would be third base and shortstop?

Looking at the results my assumptions were wrong. After the deadline they have been among the better teams in the AL. They have won many series where they couldn’t even put more than two together in the first 100 games. They had what they needed on the roster already to get better. I couldn’t see it. I can acknowledge the results though.

At the deadline... I wanted a Right Handed Bat that could hit both lefties and righties while not striking out above average. I wanted that bat because our strict platoon utilization was going to continue and because of the performance we were getting against left handed pitching at the deadline.

Candelario was the guy I had my eye on. He has hit horribly since the Cubs acquired him.  

This stuff is hard for us mere mortals. 

In hindsight... I still endorse the attempt even if it fails and I would have failed with Candelario. 

We had areas that could have (Should have) been improved upon at the deadline. Improvement should have been attempted at least... IMO.

August, September and the playoffs are long journeys ahead. It's your last chance to check to see if you packed enough socks.