Could Jose Berrios be promoted?

[bird]

JO Berrios retweeted tweets from his girlfriend and mom prior to this last start. They were excitedly tweeting about their visit to CR for the game. One can imagine the kid being really amped up, so I'm in agreement with those who are cautioning ahainst reading too much into his behavior in this one game.

[beckmt]

Need to learn not to let things behind him affect him. It is hard to do, even at my age I still do it once in a great while. Once he conquers the mental game, he should move up fast.

[cmathewson]

I recall several Twins officials (including Antony) quoted as saying that he might be one exception to the one-level-at-a-time high school promotion schedule. But it depends on how well he adjusts and matures. Right now, he has enough rough edges that I don't think he'll be promoted any time soon. But I wouldn't be surprised if he gets promoted in August or so. One way or another, I expect him to start next year in Fort Myers.

[iastfan112]

This is a prime example of where minor league stats don't tell nearly the whole story. There are reasons Taillon is ranked near top-10 in all of baseball prospects and Berrios isn't mentioned in any top 100 lists. Just saying. Taillon is referenced everywhere as a potential ace-level pitcher, Berrios gets #2/3 projections. Will Berrios show up on those lists next year? It wouldn't surprise me, but it also won't be that high. Would his performance to date merit a promotion more than Taillon did? Sure. But that doesn't mean it should or would happen. I'd say he doesn't go to Fort Myers until August, if at all. They'll promote the guys with College experience in CR first. It's what they do.

 

Sickels thinks he could be close. "I love Berrios and he could be a Top 30 guy a year from now, maybe higher."

Minor League Ball Top 150 Prospects for 2013 - Minor League Ball

[30whales]

Sickels thinks he could be close. "I love Berrios and he could be a Top 30 guy a year from now, maybe higher."

Minor League Ball Top 150 Prospects for 2013 - Minor League Ball

 

That is interesting and pretty cool to here. It was a little interesting to see how he ranked Buxton at the time. I am sure that would be a little different now.

[clutterheart]

Twins wont promote him unless he dominates. His strike outs look good now but he is giving up hits and kind of laboring. But if he gets it on I could see him sent to FSL for the final month or two.

 

For now let him pitch some more and learn how to pitch.

[Steve Lein]

I actually don't think that he's going to fly through the minors but I find your analysis to be incredibly lazy. If you are going to make the claim that this how they handle these guys regardless of talent level then you should have an example of at least one if not several guys as talented as Berrios to back it up.

 

...

 

If a player is earning promotions then he will move quicker than this historical precendent of lesser prospects. I also think that a 10.8 K/9 and a 1.6 BB/9 to be fairly dominating.

 

It's definitely not laziness, and quite frankly, if you go by how some HS prospects were thought of at the time they were drafted or a year after like is the case with Berrios now, there has been plenty of guys who were thought to have similar upside:

 

Kyle Waldrop (many thought he had best curveball in his draft), Jay Rainville (Mid-90's FB, hard slider), B.J. Hermsen (thought his body projected him for increased velocity, and was refined already), Hudson Boyd (mid-90's heat, workhorse body), etc... You will notice it's not all that great of a list, so my advice is just to temper expectations for a while. You may think Berrios is far above these guys, and he might be, but it's very early for him, which is basically the main reason for a slow timeline right now.

 

As for "fairly dominating" - He is giving up more than a hit per inning to go along with it. When that is the case, you tend to get more opportunities for K's and suggests inconsistency with some of his pitches. He's kept the ball in the ballpark so far as well, and that's not going to be the case at higher levels.

[kab21]

Once again you name a bunch of guys that did absolutely nothing to deserve promotions in full season ball. Hermsen, Boyd and Waldrop were all sub 7 K/9 guys pretty much their entire MiLB careers. Rainville had some success but there were no illusions that he was dominating before he messed up his arm. They might have had a similar status to Berrios at draft time but Berrios has significantly distanced himself that pack. If that is the best set of comparables that you have against Berrios advancing quickly then you don't even have an argument.

 

Like I said earlier I actually don't think he will advance really quickly. Best case imo is 3 levels in 2 years. I just get sick of the constant complaint that the Twins promote slowly and (insert any young prospect) won't be called up for 4+ years. The Twins are conservative but they haven't had any hot prospects that were held back recently (possibly Sano last year). They have had some fringy guys that got stuck at a level for too long but these were guys that projected more as 4th Of'ers or utility players.

 

He's given up a lot of hits because he has a .400 BAPIP. I think you will see your 'he's given up more than a hit/inning' argument go away as this number declines.

[cmathewson]

Once again you name a bunch of guys that did absolutely nothing to deserve promotions in full season ball. Hermsen, Boyd and Waldrop were all sub 7 K/9 guys pretty much their entire MiLB careers. Rainville had some success but there were no illusions that he was dominating before he messed up his arm. They might have had a similar status to Berrios at draft time but Berrios has significantly distanced himself that pack. If that is the best set of comparables that you have against Berrios advancing quickly then you don't even have an argument.

 

Like I said earlier I actually don't think he will advance really quickly. Best case imo is 3 levels in 2 years. I just get sick of the constant complaint that the Twins promote slowly and (insert any young prospect) won't be called up for 4+ years. The Twins are conservative but they haven't had any hot prospects that were held back recently (possibly Sano last year). They have had some fringy guys that got stuck at a level for too long but these were guys that projected more as 4th Of'ers or utility players.

 

He's given up a lot of hits because he has a .400 BAPIP. I think you will see your 'he's given up more than a hit/inning' argument go away as this number declines.

 

He's already on the fast track by Twins standards. He's pitched at three levels in a total of 18 games as a 19 year old. When his WHIP goes down closer to 1 (as it will with the inevitable BABIP regression), he'll get the call.

[Steve Lein]

Once again you name a bunch of guys that did absolutely nothing to deserve promotions in full season ball.

 

Again, he's a High School Drafted pitcher, 19 years old, and will be on an innings limit (probably less than 130, certainly not any more than 150) because of this. He might go to Fort Myers for a few starts at the end of the year, but he's not going to get promoted before that unless he starts blanking teams every time out. And if bad plays during a game tend to bring out some emotions like people here are suggesting, that's another mark for holding him back this early in his career.

 

I'm not arguing against your promote based on performance thought. I'm telling you it's not going to happen soon because he is a pitcher drafted out of high-school in his first full season, not really anything more to it than that.

 

I honestly hope I'm wrong, as I've stated already I think his talent level right now is above Low-A, but you're arguing a point I'm not even trying to make, or one that I disagree with you on.

 

And I can find a few guys who got promoted after 7 starts in a league, but they were drafted out of college pitchers putting up better numbers than Berrios has so far, in a higher/tougher league (Gibson, Baker, Garza). Heck, it took Slowey 14 starts in High-A before being promoted, and he put up better numbers there than any of them.

[Steve Lein]

Also, look what D.J. Baxendale did at Fort Myers to earn his early promotion to New Britain. That's the type of dominating I think it would take.

[kab21]

Again, he's a High School Drafted pitcher, 19 years old, and will be on an innings limit (probably less than 130, certainly not any more than 150) because of this. He might go to Fort Myers for a few starts at the end of the year, but he's not going to get promoted before that unless he starts blanking teams every time out. And if bad plays during a game tend to bring out some emotions like people here are suggesting, that's another mark for holding him back this early in his career.

 

I'm not arguing against your promote based on performance thought. I'm telling you it's not going to happen soon because he is a pitcher drafted out of high-school in his first full season, not really anything more to it than that.

 

I honestly hope I'm wrong, as I've stated already I think his talent level right now is above Low-A, but you're arguing a point I'm not even trying to make, or one that I disagree with you on.

 

And I can find a few guys who got promoted after 7 starts in a league, but they were drafted out of college pitchers putting up better numbers than Berrios has so far, in a higher/tougher league (Gibson, Baker, Garza). Heck, it took Slowey 14 starts in High-A before being promoted, and he put up better numbers there than any of them.

 

If you read more carefully you will notice that I haven't actually lobbied for his promotion nor have I even thought he is going fly through the system. I just asked for you to do a little more analysis than 'the Twins promote HS pitchers slowly' which is based on a non-existent track record.

[Steve Lein]

Except it's not a non-existent track record (unless you stick to your very precise requirements), as much as you would like it to be or think it isn't. The same line(s) get spouted by the 'experts' when discussing the Twins and their promotions all the time, so there is obviously a correlation.

 

I'm just telling you the performance isn't going to factor much into the Twins decision to promote, or not promote, Berrios this year because he's a HS drafted pitcher playing his first full season - there are more important things for them to worry about with him this early in his career. It's not a question of if there's a guy to compare him to, even though you want this to be the case.

[kab21]

lol - it's not non-existent because we had these other HS pitchers that weren't very good so that means that a legitimately good prospect will also move slowly? Again I'm not saying that Berrios will move quickly. I'm saying that this is a weak analysis that was used recently with several young hitters recently based on hitters that didn't deserve promotions.

 

People are even making the same argument with regards to Stewart. There are some that have argued against drafting him simply because it will take 4+ years for him to help the Twins. That's always possible with a HS prospect but the Twins wouldn't be conservative with him because they promoted Rainville, Waldrop or Boyd slowly.

[Steve Lein]

So, where is your evidence to suggest that they would promote a HS pitcher this early in his career based on performance then?!...

 

I find this to be an interesting paradigm...

[grover738]

I think it's important not to tag the kid with a "bad attitude" at this point. From what I see, he just "wants it" so bad that he allows his emotions to cost him his focus at times. Over time, he'll figure out that it's a long season and you can't let every bad bounce get to you or you'll go crazy. Once they teach him that all he can control is what he does with the ball in his hand, he'll be fine, because he cand do plenty when the ball is in his hand.

 

I agree, I was just posting on what I saw in one game. The kid has fire, he wants to win. He was pissed at the errors, but I don't know that he was pissed at the defenders. Could have just been pissed that it happened. He was nice to my kids after the game. I'd much rather have a guy with electric stuff and some fire in him than a robot with a 90mph fastball.

[jimbo92107]

I saw his last start in CR. He gave up quite a few hits, and while some were more well placed than well struck, quite a few were hit well. But one thing you won't see in the box score is how he reacted (poorly) to defensive lapses. He should have gotten out of the first unscathed, but the 2B Pimentel completely botched a very routine grounder. Berrios was clearly upset with him, shaking his head, staring at the ground.

 

This is a great observation. Good players never cast blame on their fellow players. Berrios should have nodded to Pimentel and said, "No problem, we'll get the next guy." Part of being a good ballplayer is encouraging and otherwise supporting your teammates, no matter what happens.

 

When minor leaguers wonder how to behave, they should all ask themselves, 'What would Joe Mauer do?'