Justin Morneau's Fate with Twins Hinges on the Month of June

[Chris Schad]

Morneau's month of May is impressive, but he's not going to help the Twins long-term (or enhance his trade value) until he starts hitting for power.

 

Y! SPORTS

[Riverbrian]

I continue to believe that Morneau will not be traded unless a team goes way over the top in pursuit.

 

I also believe that the Twins will reach an agreement with Justin and his career will continue in Minnesota.

 

I should also point out that... I could be wrong.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I'm not sure at this point what we could get in return for Morneau. He still has value to the franchise, so you don't give him away like Liriano or Young. But given his health history and relative lack of production this year (compared to previous years pre-injury) may cut down what would be offered in return for a trade.

 

Do we know if Justin wants to stay here? Or is he seeking to test the FA market? I don't think he can do both - I can't see us offering him a contract similar to the one he is finishing up.

 

Does anyone know/have a guess what the level of a qualifying offer will be this off-season?

[nicksaviking]

Does anyone know/have a guess what the level of a qualifying offer will be this off-season?

 

Last estimate I saw was $14 million. Clearly more than he is worth, but it's not like the Twins will be anywhere near their self-impossed salary ceiling. And as has been discussed before, there's really no such thing as a bad 1 year contract, especially for a guy who has meant so much to the team.

 

On the other hand, Terry Ryan sometimes seems more concerned with getting the better end of a deal than with getting a usable commodity.

 

Let's play pretend for a minute. Let's say that the Twins somehow land Kris Bryant in the draft. I'd guess that one of he or Sano would then be moved to 1B immediately as both would likely be at similar levels during the next two years. If the Twins had Morneau as a stop gap in 2014 Sano/Bryant would hopefully be ready to take over in 2015.

 

I will have to set a reminder in my phone to come back next week and delete that last paragraph seeing as drafting Bryant is unlikely.

[Tcrose3636]

I can't imagine Morneau signing a 1 year deal unless the Twins tender him a contract and he accepts. But that would probably be the only way he is a stop gap. I would think a 3/4 year 10m/per year would probably cut it.

[mikecgrimes]

I say trade him and see if between saving 4 or 5 million and getting a marginal prospect or two we accomplished something. I hate the idea of losing him but I also hate the idea of paying him 10+ million. This also could be a case where you trade him but make an effort to sign him back. You make as many Dave Hollins for David Ortiz type trades as you can because sometimes they work.

[LaBombo]

I can't imagine Morneau signing a 1 year deal unless the Twins tender him a contract and he accepts. But that would probably be the only way he is a stop gap. I would think a 3/4 year 10m/per year would probably cut it.

First basemen who can't hit home runs don't get a 10 million dollar/ 1 year deal, let alone 10 a year for 3 or 4, do they?

[Tcrose3636]

I don't think he will sign with the Twins for less than $10m when they were paying him $14m this year. Also, what if he drives in over 100 with less than 10 homeruns...still productive.

[LaBombo]

I don't think he will sign with the Twins for less than $10m when they were paying him $14m this year. Also, what if he drives in over 100 with less than 10 homeruns...still productive.

When was the last time a player drove in 100 runs in a season while hitting just 10 homers?

[Tcrose3636]

I believe Molitor did it in 96 ish

[Tcrose3636]

So, a while ago. but he is on pace to do it this year.

[LaBombo]

I believe Molitor did it in 96 ish

By batting .341. Not quite sure what that has to do with Justin Morneau, who has batted over .300 in a full season only once, pre-concussion.

 

Morneau's probably going to pick up the home run pace, but will have an awfully hard time sustaining his non-homer RBI pace.

 

At any rate, RBI is one of the most meaningless hitter metrics in the game, and if the Twins pay any attention to it in their valuation of Morneau, they deserve to fail as an organization.

[Tcrose3636]

You just asked when the last time someone hit less than 10 homers and 100 RBI's. Morneau is currently on that pace to do both with a lower batting average, which to me seems like he can continue a pace. If he was hitting .400 and doing it, then no way...

[Tcrose3636]

Totally agree with you on RBI's because people have to be on base. But market usually pays for RBI's like HR's.

[nicksaviking]

I say trade him and see if between saving 4 or 5 million and getting a marginal prospect or two we accomplished something. I hate the idea of losing him but I also hate the idea of paying him 10+ million.

 

But is that hate just your pride? Because it's not as if paying Morneau more than he deserves would be a financial detriment to the team.

 

This also could be a case where you trade him but make an effort to sign him back. You make as many Dave Hollins for David Ortiz type trades as you can because sometimes they work.

 

That kind of trade is likely no longer available. Ryan pulled that move many times in the late 1990's which is how he got his reputation as a shrewd GM. He was trading somewhat useful vets for well regarded prospects because the other GM's were making expendable all but their top 1 or 2 farmhands. Ryan took advantage of the win-now mentality, however Ryan's stratagy has now become common practice throughout the league and now he has lost his advantage.

[LaBombo]

Totally agree with you on RBI's because people have to be on base. But market usually pays for RBI's like HR's.

From a talent standpoint the Twins can't afford to value a player like Morneau the old-school way. From a financial standpoint it's hard to argue that the Twins couldn't afford Morneau with the low-rent squad they're currently fielding.

[Tcrose3636]

From a talent standpoint the Twins can't afford to value a player like Morneau the old-school way. From a financial standpoint it's hard to argue that the Twins couldn't afford Morneau with the low-rent squad they're currently fielding.

I am very bias because I have a Mauer and Morneau autograph twins jersey hanging up in the Bar in our basement...so I would like them to sign him and have him retire here, but I get not paying him $10m per year.

[Willihammer]

We have all seen Morneau shake his head disgusted after getting thrown out by 20 feet at 2nd base after clobbering a ball of Target Field's 23 foot wall in right. In many parks, those will be home runs, or at the very least, doubles. Is there any chance that Justin finishes the year slightly worse than 2012, is extended a QO, and feels its in his career's best interest to turn it down so he can try to move to a more LH friendly park?

[Badsmerf]

You just asked when the last time someone hit less than 10 homers and 100 RBI's. Morneau is currently on that pace to do both with a lower batting average, which to me seems like he can continue a pace. If he was hitting .400 and doing it, then no way...

Wrong. His RBI pace will return to where it should be by the end of the year. He is relying on an unstably high BA w/ RISP. I do think he will start hitting HR's though. I'm still willing to bet he ends with more than 20.

[stringer bell]

Wrong. His RBI pace will return to where it should be by the end of the year. He is relying on an unstably high BA w/ RISP. I do think he will start hitting HR's though. I'm still willing to bet he ends with more than 20.

Since the year is almost 1/3 over and Morneau would have to hit 19 more homers to hit "more than 20" as you've said, that would a pretty sharp upturn. I can see him hitting 15 or so, but not much more than that. Still, he isn't going to come close to the good numbers he had earlier in his career.

[Mr. Brooks]

Since the year is almost 1/3 over and Morneau would have to hit 19 more homers to hit "more than 20" as you've said, that would a pretty sharp upturn. I can see him hitting 15 or so, but not much more than that. Still, he isn't going to come close to the good numbers he had earlier in his career.

 

Yeah, IMO it is highly unlikely Morneau finishes over 20 HR's. He'd have to finish the year at a 30 HR/yr. pace to get to 21, which means he would have to return to his pre concussion self for 4 consecutive months, I just don't see that happening.

He probably hits 12 to 15 max.

[Badsmerf]

So you're all taking that bet? Considering how cold its been this spring, and how he's been starting to make better and better contact. It is only a matter of time. Hitting 20 HR is much different than hitting 30 IMO. Players can get hot and reach 20, but to hit 30 takes a little more than a few hot streaks. I think it starts tonight. He takes Lohse deep and keeps him from beating all 30 teams.

[stringer bell]

We have all seen Morneau shake his head disgusted after getting thrown out by 20 feet at 2nd base after clobbering a ball of Target Field's 23 foot wall in right. In many parks, those will be home runs, or at the very least, doubles. Is there any chance that Justin finishes the year slightly worse than 2012, is extended a QO, and feels its in his career's best interest to turn it down so he can try to move to a more LH friendly park?

I recall one such case this year, but I'm sure there could be a couple more. Morneau isn't going to be given a qualifying offer unless he really, really comes on in the last two-thirds of the season. Of course, if he does that, the Twins probably should trade him anyway. Morneau hasn't homered on the road and many of his doubles have gone oppo and a couple were bloopers. The power just hasn't been there, period.

[stringer bell]

So you're all taking that bet? Considering how cold its been this spring, and how he's been starting to make better and better contact. It is only a matter of time. Hitting 20 HR is much different than hitting 30 IMO. Players can get hot and reach 20, but to hit 30 takes a little more than a few hot streaks. I think it starts tonight. He takes Lohse deep and keeps him from beating all 30 teams.

Yep, I'll take that bet. What are the stakes? I'll bet any amount of virtual dollars.

[Badsmerf]

Yep, I'll take that bet. What are the stakes? I'll bet any amount of virtual dollars.

One. Million. Dollars.... What? Ok, ok, One. Billion. Dollars.

[Westgaard66]

Players can get hot and reach 20.

 

See: Plouffe, Trevor from May 16 to July 3 (I believe he hit 18 in that time)

 

Morneua goes on a tear like that, he's good as traded.

[Riverbrian]

See: Plouffe, Trevor from May 16 to July 3 (I believe he hit 18 in that time)

 

Morneua goes on a tear like that, he's good as traded.

 

OR... Re-upped with a fresh contract.

 

Im just saying... Don't be surprised.

[LaBombo]

I am very bias because I have a Mauer and Morneau autograph twins jersey hanging up in the Bar in our basement...so I would like them to sign him and have him retire here, but I get not paying him $10m per year.

You're in the majority of the fan base as far as wanting to bring him back. He's one of the most popular Twins of the last 10 years, and it's hard for the front office to ignore that with attendance in the toilet last year.