Should Aaron Hicks bat leadoff?

[mikecgrimes]

Yes, Aaron Hicks should be batting leadoff for the Rochester Redwings. How far do you go before you hurt a players future by leaving him up at a level that he is clearly not ready to handle. And this has absolutely nothing to do to keep his service time under control.

 

I think that is the path you have to take with 90% of prospects Joe Benson being a great example. Hicks seems to be a different type of kid. His failures early may be the best thing that ever happened to him. As he's used it as a learning experience and hasn't seemed to take it into the next at bat or into the field.

 

A lot of kids go 9 for there first 30 and then you never notice they struggle just as much as Hicks as it takes forever for there statistics to stick out. The kid is already a better player then Ben Revere even as a .161 hitter. If he wasn't getting better he would have been sent down long ago, but at this point the kid belongs here. And by the way if he had been in Rochester the last 4 or 5 weeks he would be putting up the kind of #'s that would have fans begging for him to be called back up.

[Oxtung]

Aaron Hick's Slash lines in 2 week chunks. BA/OBP/SLG

 

April 1 - 14: .047/.109/.155

April 14-30: .188/.341/.219

May 1 - 14: .216/.293/.568

May 14-28: .180/.196/.340

 

Where is this improving? Seems to me you would have had an argument 3 weeks ago but the last two weeks he has once again cratered. I guess he's not been abysmal, stab my eyes out with a railroad spike, bad but he hasn't even sniffed mediocre in the last two weeks. The kid is struggling. There is no reason to keep tossing him to the wolves except that the Twins never made a contingency plan for CF apparently.

[darin617]

Aaron Hick's Slash lines in 2 week chunks. BA/OBP/SLG

 

April 1 - 14: .047/.109/.155

April 14-30: .188/.341/.219

May 1 - 14: .216/.293/.568

May 14-28: .180/.196/.340

 

Where is this improving? Seems to me you would have had an argument 3 weeks ago but the last two weeks he has once again cratered. I guess he's not been abysmal, stab my eyes out with a railroad spike, bad but he hasn't even sniffed mediocre in the last two weeks. The kid is struggling. There is no reason to keep tossing him to the wolves except that the Twins never made a contingency plan for CF apparently.

 

Thanks for putting his stats out.

 

I think when the Twins traded both Span and Revere it reminded the Twins of the Santana trade. Meaning they thought they had to play Hicks to justify their deals. Just think if the Twins would have kept Carlos Gomez in the minors to actually figure things out he could still here and CF would be a strength.

[mikecgrimes]

Finding a 2 week segment when a guy is hitting .180 isn't hard speaking of which the 1-2 with a 2.000 slugging average so far tonight moves those #'s a long ways. Ben Revere by the way leads the career extra base hit's race 37-12 by the way.

[Badsmerf]

Just think if the Twins would have kept Carlos Gomez in the minors to actually figure things out he could still here and CF would be a strength.

 

Nice assumption, doesn't always work that way.

 

I just wish Benson would have played a little better. Then the Twins would at least have another option. Before cutting bait with him, I would have at least given him a shot with the Twins to give him that change of scenery in-house. So much of professional sports is mental, and it was obvious he was beat.

 

Unfortunately, the Twins really have no option right now. I'm on the Clete Thomas bandwagon right now (and there is plenty of room lol). Not that I think Clete will be a world beater, but he would probably play better than Hicks right now and allow Hicks to get a little time in AAA to find himself. I doubt it will happen.

 

The Twins can spout the BS about Hicks not letting the game get to him, but I just don't buy it. Any competitor is going to be frustrated after failing so badly. If he isn't frustrated, that isn't a very good sign either. You don't just kick the dirt and say dang-it after hitting .150 for 2 months.

[mikecgrimes]

Thanks for putting his stats out.

 

I think when the Twins traded both Span and Revere it reminded the Twins of the Santana trade. Meaning they thought they had to play Hicks to justify their deals. Just think if the Twins would have kept Carlos Gomez in the minors to actually figure things out he could still here and CF would be a strength.

 

The Mets played Gomez in the majors when he was at Hicks stage of development. And he put up decent #'s his first full year with the Twins. Triple A is for the Brian Doizer type players not high end prospects.

[Oxtung]

Finding a 2 week segment when a guy is hitting .180 isn't hard speaking of which the 1-2 with a 2.000 slugging average so far tonight moves those #'s a long ways. Ben Revere by the way leads the career extra base hit's race 37-12 by the way.

 

But finding a player hitting <.190 in 3 out of 4 two week stretches is hard. There is almost nothing redeeming about Hicks offensive contributions so far. He is flat out struggling. The only small slice of saving grace I can find is he has an unsustainable sub-.200 babip for the season.

[Brad Swanson]

He's slugging almost .500 in May. Plus, the BABIP, plus a better line drive rate in May, plus a better ground ball rate in May, plus a better strikeout rate in May. I apologize for the terrible sentence, but there are reasons to believe he is improving.

[Brock Beauchamp]

OPS being an apples+oranges stat, it sorta works (when it works) for typical cases but can fall down when applied to extreme cases. Which Hicks, an extreme work-in-progress, is. The man's season can be broken down into "eras" that stand out even when accounting for SSS. First was the "can't recognize a pitcher's out-pitch" era for two weeks, followed by "base on balls 50% of the time because no one is fool enough to throw him three strikes" for a week, followed by an era of making some useful contact, followed by this current era of ten games where for some reason he has gotten *zero* walks.

 

In one sense, you have to add these all up into one "season" - it is what it is. But for trying to get a bead on this guy? We're just not there yet. Because he's just not there yet. An OPS is either going to be cherry-picking of one of his "eras" or else a hopeless mishmash of two or more eras that give you very little predictive power for thinking about what to do with him.

 

I agree fully. What you also just explained are the ups and downs a typical rookie goes through as he figures out MLB pitching. And if a guy is going through those motions and producing at all, that means he's adjusting somewhat.

 

Which Aaron Hicks appears to be doing. He's not great. He might not even be good right now. But he appears to be learning and that's what really matters.

[ashbury]

I agree fully. What you also just explained are the ups and downs a typical rookie goes through as he figures out MLB pitching.

 

Yep. I was basically quibbling about even trying to use OPS, whether it be .500 or .700 or .900, to understand anything about even part of this season of his, but I failed to come back around to that original point. We can use aggregate stats to say something useful about a Nick Punto or Drew Butera, but not yet about Aaron Hicks's major league future. And, despite rookies having their ups and downs, I'm not sure they all lead to undecipherable aggregates for two months like I see Hicks's being. In the analytic/synthetic paradigm, synthesis does not yet have a place.