Twins Fantasy Fix (6/11): Making the Case for Correa

[Mike Rose]

Carlos Correa has not been a good fantasy contributor so far, but could better days be ahead? Here’s a case for staying patient.

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! I probably don’t have to tell you that Carlos Correa has been struggling. He’s batting only .212 overall coming into Sunday, and as noted by Twins Daily’s Parker Hageman, a lot of it can be traced to a lack of success against fastballs. Nick Nelson of Twins Daily also pointed out that Correa has struggled with runners in scoring position. These are troubling trends.

Not surprisingly, the poor production has led many fantasy managers to part ways with Correa. His ownership is around 73 percent in ESPN leagues and his trade value may be at an all-time low. I’m going to go against the grain, however, and say that it might be a good time to buy low. Why? As Parker notes in his thread, Correa’s swing has been a bit different so far this year, and it’s possible that he tinkers it moving forward. The shortstop made some in-season adjustments last year and it paid off when everything was said and done. 

In 2022, Correa started to take off in June, as he posted a 1.012 OPS with six home runs. It’s getting a little late this June for Correa to replicate those numbers, but it’s possible that a big month of games is still right around the corner, and his big grand slam on Saturday could be the jump start he needs. The 2022 version of Correa also raked in September and October, posting a 1.001 OPS with seven home runs and 19 RBI. Fantasy managers may not have the patience to wait it out this year, but a month like that could be exactly what’s needed to win a league. It’s understandable if you don’t believe Correa will turn it around, though his history of making in-season adjustments and his strong numbers toward the end of 2022 lend some hope. Plus, he shouldn’t be in any serious danger of being benched at any point. If nothing else, Correa could be a fun lottery ticket if your team needs to mix it up or cover for any injured players.

Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates

Jorge Polanco
Expected return: TBD
For the second time this year, Polanco is dealing with a hamstring strain, and this one might be a little more severe. He missed 11 games last time, so expect a longer IL stint this time around. Edouard Julien stands to benefit the most, as he was recalled from Triple-A and should fill in at second base most days. He’s a good low-budget option in daily leagues, especially when he’s leading off.

Byron Buxton
Expected return: Possibly June 13-15
Buxton took a pitch to the ribs during the Cleveland series and has been out ever since. He avoided a fracture, so it shouldn’t be a long-term absence. Buxton may be able to rejoin the Twins when they start their next homestand.

Joey Gallo 
Expected return: Week of June 12
Gallo hit the injured list last week with a left hamstring strain. He began a rehab assignment with the Saints on Friday and could be ready to return after the weekend. His monster home run for St. Paul on Saturday is a good sign that he’s ready to roll.

Kenta Maeda
Expected return: June
Maeda made his most recent rehab appearance for the Saints on Saturday and cruised through four shutout innings, tossing 60 pitches in the process. It seems like the team wants to get Maeda back in the rotation at some point, possibly quite soon, which could push Louie Varland to a long-relief role or back to Triple-A.

Stock Rising: Pablo Lopez
ESPN ownership: 93%
It’s only one start, but fantasy managers have to be encouraged by Lopez’s most recent outing. He allowed just one run across seven innings and struck out six. Lopez’s 4.25 ERA is higher than his 3.98 career mark, though his 3.78 FIP suggests that better days could be ahead. He also has a strong 10.6 K/9, which is up from 8.7 last season. Lopez isn’t available in a ton of leagues, though you might want to trade for him now if you think he can sustain his recent form. There are certainly signs that he should be able to. 

Stock Falling: Max Kepler
ESPN ownership: 3%
Like Correa, Kepler hit a big home run on Saturday, but also like Correa, the outfielder has mostly struggled this year. He’s batting just .197 with a .655 OPS entering Sunday. The difference with Kepler is that the team may be less patient with him than they likely will be with Correa. That’s because the Twins have some other options for the corner outfield spots, including Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Gallo when he returns. Alex Kirilloff can also play the corner outfield when Donovan Solano plays at first, and Willi Castro can play in the outfield, too. This could leave Kepler on the outside looking in if he doesn’t turn things around. He’s already mostly off the radar in fantasy leagues and that probably doesn’t need to change.

Prospect Spotlight
Austin Martin  (Current team: Triple-A, playing rehab games in Fort Myers)
Martin has been on the injured list all year, though he recently began a rehab assignment and could return to St. Paul in the near future. His prospect stock has fallen since coming over in the Jose Berrios trade, though there are still a few things to like. Martin doesn’t seem like he’ll hit for much power at the MLB level, but he should be able to get on base and run plenty. Last year with Double-A Wichita, he recorded a .362 on-base percentage with 34 stolen bases in 39 attempts. Those steals came in just 90 games, too, so he could steal 40 or more bases with extended playing time. If he stays healthy and looks decent with the Saints, Martin could be in line for his MLB debut later this year.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
2 Games vs Brewers (Corbin Burnes, Colin Rea)
4 Games vs Tigers (Matthew Boyd, Joey Wentz, Jack O’Loughlin, Reese Olson)
After a tough stretch of games on the road, things ease up a bit as the Twins return home. The Tigers are last in the majors in runs, and the Brewers are only 25th, so it should be a good week for Minnesota pitchers. In terms of ERA, Milwaukee is a bit better at 12th, though Detroit is 21st and has some fairly inexperienced starters at the moment.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 
Lopez lines up to start Tuesday and Sunday. As noted above, he was good in his last start and has been missing plenty of bats all year. Both of these matchups look good, so I’d roll the righty out with confidence.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
Burnes is an ace, but he’s the only pitcher that looks particularly intimidating in the coming week. In particular, I’m looking at the Detroit series as a great chance for Minnesota hitters to feast. Southpaw Boyd has been around for a while, but he’s got a subpar 5.55 ERA this season. Meanwhile, the lefty Wentz has a 7.49 ERA and is allowing righties to bat .291 against him. In daily formats, it might be a good time to fire up Buxton, assuming he’s returned by then. Correa also is very much in play, along with Solano, who excels against southpaws.

After Boyd and Wentz is O’Loughlin, who would be making his MLB debut. He’s also a lefty, so the same right-handed batters look like good options. The week ends with Olson, who just made his MLB debut on June 2. There’s obviously not a ton of data on him yet in the majors, though you could definitely consider a stack against Olson, possibly targeting a left-handed bat like Gallo if he’s back in the lineup. 

Do you still believe in Correa in fantasy? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

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[weitz41]

My teams are on Yahoo, and I have picked up Correa off waivers on a couple teams in the last week hoping for the summer warm up. Buxton and Polanco are the Twins I find more frustating..

[Mike Rose]

20 hours ago, weitz41 said:

My teams are on Yahoo, and I have picked up Correa off waivers on a couple teams in the last week hoping for the summer warm up. Buxton and Polanco are the Twins I find more frustating..

I think this makes a lot of sense. Very small sample size of course, but finished the Toronto series 4-for-12 with two doubles and that big grand slam. And he’s got a .903 OPS so far this month. It’ll take more sustained success to convince folks, but the early signs of a turnaround are there.

[weitz41]

15 hours ago, Mike Rose said:

I think this makes a lot of sense. Very small sample size of course, but finished the Toronto series 4-for-12 with two doubles and that big grand slam. And he’s got a .903 OPS so far this month. It’ll take more sustained success to convince folks, but the early signs of a turnaround are there.

He's been a good pickup so far. I try to keep it to two or less Twins position players on a team. I have Buxton, Polanco and Kirilloff mixed in with Correa. If my IL fills up I may have to move on from Polanco because of the injury bug just won't leave him alone this season.