Twins vs Astros (4/7-7/9): Home Opener Series Preview!

[Steven Trefz]

The Astros are missing Jose Altuve and Justin Verlander, but they're still the bullies of the American League. 

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Twins got destroyed by the Astros at Target Field in 2022 by a combined 18 runs, and lost all six games to the eventual World Series champions. In 2021, however, the Twins actually won the season series 4-3. This season finds the Twins coming home after a winning road trip, while the Astros are limping into town at 3-4. 

 

The Twins returned to the land of a thousand frozen lakes Wednesday night after gutting out a 4-2 start to the 2023 season. The frigid temps caused the Home Opener to be pushed back a day, but that only added to the anticipation for the Twins' faithful. Unfortunately for the home team, the guests for the weekend will be none other than the defending World Series champions, and perpetual bully, the Houston Astros.

The starkest difference between the two teams thus far is their pitching. The Astros bring in a 4.02 ERA and 1.319 WHIP, while the Twins have been consistent and effective with a 1.90 ERA and a .962 WHIP. The offense of both squads appear evenly matched, with the Astros generating 2-3 more baserunners a game, and almost an entire run per game.

Fun Fact: The home opener kicks off with breakfast on the plaza from 6-9am, and most importantly, the Twins Daily Social Club Home Opener Pregame festivites at Tom's Watch Bar from 11am-3pm!

Weather Factor: The home opener was moved to Friday in order to capitalize on the temperatures "rising" to the low 50's at game time. Coming from the 88 degree and humid tropical heat of Miami will present its own set of challenges to both pitchers and batters. Saturday and Sunday look slightly warmer, with plenty of sunshine.

Now let's take a look at the Pitching Probables for the Twins' second series of the season:

Game 1 – Friday, April 7th, 2023 – 3:10pm CDT – Right-handers Sonny Gray (Twins) and Jose Urquidy (Astros) will square off in the Twins' home opener. Gray comes in at 1-0, with no runs allowed in five innings against the Royals on opening weekend. Urquidy, on the other hand, got a no-decision against the White Sox while giving up three runs over four innings.

Of the Astros' potential lineup, Jose Abreu has the most experience by far with 24 at-bats versus Gray, but with only a .250 batting average. For the season, Kyle Tucker comes into town batting a salty 1217 OPS, with Yordan Alvarez and Chas McCormick also notching an OPS over 1000. The Twins are somewhat struggling at the plate, having scored two runs or less in four of their first six games. Joey Gallo and Trevor Larnach bring an OPS over 1000 so far this season.

Game 2 – Saturday, April 8th, 2023 – 1:10pm CDT – Right-handers Joe Ryan (Twins) and Luis Garcia (Astros) take the mound in an afternoon tilt where the temperature is expected to be climbing into the low-60's. Ryan brings a 1-0 start and a 1.50 ERA/0.83 WHIP into the matchup. Garcia took the loss against the White Sox on opening weekend, allowing three runs in four innings.

Neither team has much history against the starters, but if Ryan can continue in the vein of his previous home performances, this matchup should lean towards the Twins. Getting a healthy Max Kepler back by this point in the series would also add a key left-handed bat.

Game 3 - Sunday, April 9th, 2023 – 12:10pm CDT - Right-hander Tyler Mahle (Twins) faces off yet another right-hander, youngster Hunter Brown (Astros). Mahle comes in at 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA after defeating the Marlins on the road, while Brown took a no-decision against the Tigers in his first start, allowing four runs over 4.2 innings.

The Twins have no at-bats yet against Brown, who is making only his 9th MLB start. Mahle similarly will be facing most of the Astros hitters for the first time as he continues to become familiar with AL line-ups.

Prediction Time!

What's your prediction for this series? Get out the brooms, or something in between? Who do you think can catch fire in the Twins line-up? Will the Twins starters continue their dominant ways? Let's go Twins Territory! It's the first series of the year at Target Field!

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Steve Trefz - On a mission to go to a Twins series in every stadium over 2023-24. The journey continues in New York!
Follow me on Twitter: @TwinsTrefz
Statistical help from StatHead.com

 

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[Melissa Berman]

So excited for the Opener tomorrow!! Best day of the year- such a happy day full of fun traditions!

[Doctor Gast]

It's time for the bullies get what's coming to them. They didn't look impressive against DET or CWS. We need to hit them hard & often. As our pitching will keep them down. Go Twins!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, Melissa Berman said:

So excited for the Opener tomorrow!! Best day of the year- such a happy day full of fun traditions!

What are some of the Opening Day traditions which you enjoy?

[Steven Trefz]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

What are some of the Opening Day traditions which you enjoy?

My brother and I went for three years in a row to Target for the home opener, so meeting somewhere random in western MN and getting our families into one vehicle for the journey into the city from our various SD locations.  
 

That last stretch of driving was always special.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Steven Trefz said:

My brother and I went for three years in a row to Target for the home opener, so meeting somewhere random in western MN and getting our families into one vehicle for the journey into the city from our various SD locations.  
 

That last stretch of driving was always special.

I bet that was so much fun.