These Were the Minnesota Twins' 10 Most Valuable Pitches in 2022

[Adam Neisen]

From Griffin Jax's slider to Jhoan Durán's curve to Joe Ryan's four-seamer, these were the pitches that did the most work for Twins pitchers last year.

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching in today's game is more advanced than ever. Fastballs are faster. Breaking pitches break more. All of that leads to pitching being more exciting than ever. The Twins are no stranger to this, as their staff has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, but who truly had the best pitch on the Twins in 2022? 

To measure, I am using Run Value (RV). Run Value looks at run expectancy in each unique situation and how a specific pitch affects that run expectancy. Run Value is through the eyes of the pitcher, so a negative number represents a good pitch because it lessens the chance of a run and vice versa. It is important to note that run value is an accumulative stat, meaning that the more innings someone pitched, the more RV they can acquire, and now on to the top ten.

10: Griffin Jax's slider: -7 RV
9: Sonny Gray's curveball: -7 RV
8: Jovani Moran's changeup: -7 RV
7: Caleb Thielbar's four-seamer: -8 RV
6: Jhoan Durán's curveball: -8 RV

5: Chris Archer's slider: -9 RV
Archer was largely ineffective last year, with lousy walk numbers, and he didn't go far into games, leading to a WAR of precisely zero. The lone bright spot of his season was the slider, which snuck into the top five. Archer's slider rate ticked up this past season, and for a good reason: it was his only effective pitch. Opponents batted .202 against it, and he got a 26.5 whiff% with his slider.

4: Michael Fulmer's slider: -9 RV
Acquired at the trade deadline, Fulmer's arsenal is slider heavy, throwing it over 60% of the time. He averages 90.3 MPH, which is top ten in the league. He was effective in his time in Minnesota with an ERA of 3.70 and an ERA+ of 106. His slider was a big part of that, as it held opponents to a .342 SLG and had a 24.7 put away%. 

3: Jhoan Durán's four-seamer: -9 RV
Arguably the most dominant pitch on this list, it doesn't rank higher in RV due to the lack of innings pitched. Duran had the highest velocity fastball in MLB last year with an average speed of 100.8 MPH, beating out other flamethrowers such as Edwin Diaz and Ryan Helsley. Topping out at 103.8 MPH and averaging more inches of movement than his curveball, Duran made opposing hitters look lost with a 25.9 K% on his fastball.

2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV
Gray uses his fastball much less than the other top five on the list, at just 28.3%, but his results were just as effective. Nothing instantly jumps out; his velocity and strikeout numbers are average to below average. His opponent slugging however, was .345, 50 points below the league average. Gray's four-seamer has run similar to a two-seamer, and he was able to dominate the left side of the plate. 

1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV
Somewhat of a surprise due to his low velocity, but Ryan's fastball was elite. In terms of run value, that pitch ranked ninth in MLB and the fourth-best fastball, only behind Justin Verlander, Nestor Cortes, and Carlos Rodon. Thrown a whopping 60.1% of the time, it held opponents to a mere .174 batting average. Ryan's lower arm slot makes the pitch look like it's rising, making it especially difficult for hitters to pick up on. 

Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran should be staples on this list for years to come, but spots are up for grabs. Which new pitches could emerge next year? Which pitches surprised you? Can anyone take Ryan's top spot? Leave your thoughts below!

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[IndianaTwin]

Since this is a cumulative stat, it's noteworthy to me that Moran has a pitch listed despite only pitching 48.2 innings. And that Duran has two pitches, though only pitching 67.2. 

Of course, that doesn't take into account that relievers are often throwing fewer different pitches. If 60 percent of Fulmer's pitches over 63 innings, that's not much difference in total than Gray's 28 percent fastballs over 123 innings. 

[Blyleven2011]

Thanks , run value  is another stat I was unaware of , I'll try and watch the game and compare my eyes with what you have written  ...

Location and pitch selection are always important , nibbling is not (  Gibson was a nibbler and so are pagan and a few others )  ....

Go get em Mano o Mano  ...

[umterp23]

What no Pagan?  Worst 10 pitches list would be interesting to see.

[ToddlerHarmon]

2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV
...

1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV

 

Cue "that escalated quickly" meme