FanGraphs: Twins most improved playoff odds at deadline

[Otto von Ballpark]

According to this FanGraphs article, the Twins improved their chances of making the postseason more than any other team at the trade deadline (+7.4%):

Which Teams Improved the Most at the Trade Deadline?

Of course, that's due to a few factors:

• the Twins additions
• the lack of additions for Cleveland and Chicago (who saw the second and third largest playoff odds declines, respectively)
• starting with a pessimistic projection for the Twins, so we had more room to improve it (Fangraphs still has the Twins projected to narrowly finish 2nd -- no respect! )

The article also includes odds of winning the World Series, and the Twins didn't move that needle much -- just +0.2%. The Padres were the only big gainer there (+3.5%), as you might imagine.

What do you think? Do you expect a photo finish in the division? Do you think we'll go in as a wild card instead?

[Otto von Ballpark]

In case anyone is wondering, this is where we stand today per FanGraphs:

For another perspective, here are today's odds from Baseball-Reference:

Current			Remaining			Average			90% Confidence											Change
	Tm	Lg	D	SRS	rSOS		W	L		W	L		W	L		Best	Worst		Post	WC	Div	LDS	LCS	Pennant	Win WS		1 Day	7 Days	30 Days
AL Central
1	Minnesota Twins	AL	C	0.0	0.0		55	49		28.9	29.1		83.9	78.1		90-72	78-84		49.0%	11.5%	37.5%	21.1%	6.0%	1.9%	0.6%		-1.4%	-11.8%	-26.7%
2	Cleveland Guardians	AL	C	-0.1	-0.1		54	50		29.2	28.8		83.2	78.8		89-73	77-85		44.2%	12.2%	32.0%	20.6%	7.5%	2.4%	0.5%		+1.1%	+3.0%	+6.0%
3	Chicago White Sox	AL	C	-0.2	-0.3		53	51		29.7	28.3		82.7	79.3		89-73	76-86		40.4%	9.9%	30.5%	19.8%	6.0%	1.5%	0.6%		+0.8%	+8.8%	+11.3%

[Doctor Gast]

Very interesting, I have always said if we get the trades we need, we can catch "lightning in a bottle" and go all the way. We made the trades so hold onto your seat.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

According to this FanGraphs article, the Twins improved their chances of making the postseason more than any other team at the trade deadline (+7.4%):

Which Teams Improved the Most at the Trade Deadline?

Of course, that's due to a few factors:

• the Twins additions
• the lack of additions for Cleveland and Chicago (who saw the second and third largest playoff odds declines, respectively)
• starting with a pessimistic projection for the Twins, so we had more room to improve it (Fangraphs still has the Twins projected to narrowly finish 2nd -- no respect! )

The article also includes odds of winning the World Series, and the Twins didn't move that needle much -- just +0.2%. The Padres were the only big gainer there (+3.5%), as you might imagine.

What do you think? Do you expect a photo finish in the division? Do you think we'll go in as a wild card instead?

This analysis was really favorable to the Twins.  Thanks Otto for bringing this to our attention. And it seems to have ignored the addition of Leon. If not for Leon, who would be the Twins second string catcher?  The writers keep ignoring Leon, but I predict that the addition of Leon will prove to be a wise move by the FO. 

[bean5302]

Almost exactly how I feel/felt about the Twins chances immediately post deadline. I moved the Twins up from 20% to 35% largely at the expensive of the Guardians.

[wsnydes]

Seems about right on all fronts.  I still don't trust Cleveland or Chicago to maintain a pace to catch the Twins given their inconsistency.  I'd likely say that about all three of these teams in any order though, and give the advantage to the team in 1st.  

Also not surprised that they didn't move the needle much on winning it all.  While improved, the pitching still doesn't look good enough in my view and the bats are too inconsistent.  The bats rely way too much on the long ball and I still don't think that's a recipe for success in the playoffs facing better pitching every game.