Potential 2013 Twins draft pick: Kohl Stewart

[cmb0252]

Kohl Stewart, RHP, 6'3" 190 lbs, Senior St.Pius X (HS) Houston

 

Experts take-" Stewart, who is committed to Texas A&M to carry a clipboard for a year behind Johnny Football on the football field, shows four pitches, including a knockout slider despite a rudimentary delivery. With pro instruction, he has top-of-the-rotation potential. delivery isn't ideal, as his hips are pretty stiff and his pitching arm doesn't pronate until fairly late, while he drifts forward off the rubber rather than taking a strong stride towards the plate. None of these things is a huge red flag for injuries, and it's possible that a pro coach cleans him up a little and unleashes even more fury out of that arm."- Keith law

 

Pitches- 92-94 fastball that can hit 97, wipe out slider in the 85-89s, a hard curve, and a change up in the 83-84 range.

 

Pros-Super Athletic, chance to have 4 pitches, current 2 plus pitches, ideal size

 

Cons- Strong commitment to play QB at A&M, type 1 diabetes, a "thrower not a pitcher", slowest season due to football injury

 

 

 

 

 

[cmb0252]

From Christopher Crawford-"After missing the beginning of the year due to a strained right shoulder, St. Pius X (Houston) High School's Kohl Stewart has been nothing short of dominant in his first five starts. Stewart went seven shutout innings against St. Thomas Catholic while giving up two hits and striking out 10. The Texas A&M football commit did walk four, but once again his stuff was upper-echelon, and he's sure to land in the top half of the first round."

 

I was actually at this game and Stewart was just dealing. I heard some people mentioned he hit 96 a few times.

[cmb0252]

From Jim call is chat today:

 

• 
  How does Kohl Stewart compare to former pitcher/quarterbacks like Archie Bradley and Zach Lee? Seems like he has Bradley-esque stuff with Lee's build. Anyone else come to mind for you? Thanks, Jim.
  

Jim Callis: In terms of stuff, I think Bradley has more (and showed it more consistently) than Stewart, who has more than Lee. In pro ball, Lee has settled in as a guy with average to solid stuff who can really pitch.

 

• Twins draft question. I think drafting a SP is imperative, but I don't think you pass on best available for best available that is closest to the majors, given their current roster make-up. So, if Appel and Gray are gone, which they most likely will be, do the Twins go Manaea or is there a high school SP that they should target even though it will require more patience? Thanks.
  

Jim Callis: I'd take Manaea. At his best, Kohl Stewart could put himself in that discussion, but I'd take Manaea over him.

[cmb0252]

From Keith laws chat

Ihave heard Kohl Stewart's name going as high as #5 to Cleveland. Is he top 10 for sure?[h=6]Klaw (1:29 PM)

[/h]

 

He's top 10 on talent, but not certainly going in that range. Also don't see Cleveland taking him, not if either Bryant or Moran is on the board.

[cmb0252]

Jim callis answered a pretty interesting question in his weekly Ask BA segment.

 

How would you rank the top 10 high school pitchers from the 2010-13 drafts?

 

I’m basing the rankings below on how the pitchers were regarded at the time of their draft. For instance, Jose Fernandez would rank No. 1 based on current status, but he ranked 20th overall on our 2011 Top 200 Draft Prospects list.

1. Dylan Bundy (Orioles, No. 4 overall pick, 2011)

So polished that scouts considered him equivalent to a college pitcher.

2. Jameson Taillon (Pirates, No. 2, 2010)

Pittsburgh took the next Josh Beckett between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

3. Archie Bradley (Diamondbacks, No. 7, 2011)

Had even more electric stuff than his Oklahoma high school rival, Bundy.

4. Max Fried (Padres, No. 7, 2012)

First lefty on this list is a slightly less powerful version of Clayton Kershaw.

5. Lucas Giolito (Nationals, No. 16, 2012)

Might have been first prep righty to go No. 1 overall if he hadn’t hurt his elbow.

6. Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X HS, Houston, 2013)

Has best high school arm this year, extra leverage as Texas A&M quarterback recruit.

7. Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros, No. 41, 2012)

Only signability dropped him to the sandwich round, where he landed $2.5 million.

8. Taylor Guerrieri (Rays, No. 24, 2011)

His stuff compared to Bradley’s in 2011, but maturity issues caused a slight slide.

9. Karsten Whitson (Padres, No. 9, 2010)

Failed to sign after contentious negotiations, then struggled and got hurt at Florida.

10. Trey Ball (New Castle, Ind., HS, 2013)

There’s no longer a split camp on two-way’s star future—he’s definitely a pitcher.

At first I thought Kohl at 6 is pretty low but the guys ahead of him are top end talent. All ace potential.

 

Full article below:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-who-are-the-2013-drafts-true-first-rounders/

[Badsmerf]

The guys ahead of him have had time in pro-ball to show their talent too. He is my pick at #4 right now.

[nicksaviking]

I'm all for my pro teams taking chances, so I'm game if he looks to have the most potential.

[cmb0252]

I'm all for my pro teams taking chances, so I'm game if he looks to have the most potential.

 

Out of the pitchers I think he is the only guy after Appel and Gray who profiles as an ace. Other people could emerge in the future but currently these are the only three I see.

[kab21]

My only hesitation is 'how much of a project is he'. His fastball is great. His slider has a lot of potential but is still a work in progress and his change isn't much currently. It's really a question of how much risk because it could really hurt the Twins to get nothing with this pick.

[Badsmerf]

My only hesitation is 'how much of a project is he'. His fastball is great. His slider has a lot of potential but is still a work in progress and his change isn't much currently. It's really a question of how much risk because it could really hurt the Twins to get nothing with this pick.

There is risk, but the reward is high too. The Twins have been really safe in their drafting strategy since Adam Johnson, and even he was a college guy that was supposed to be the deal. They compounded that draft by getting "The Real Deal" JD Durbin in the 2nd round. To get elite starting pitching, you have to draft guys that have a chance of getting there.

[Oxtung]

There is risk, but the reward is high too. The Twins have been really safe in their drafting strategy since Adam Johnson, and even he was a college guy that was supposed to be the deal. They compounded that draft by getting "The Real Deal" JD Durbin in the 2nd round. To get elite starting pitching, you have to draft guys that have a chance of getting there.

 

I feel like my work with you and Kab is paying off recently. I've seen you both use not only the "elite starter" tag but also you're advocating for the high upside arm pick. I feel a bit like Darth Sidious.

[cmb0252]

Kohl does have some mechanical issues, 99.9% of high school players do, but from what I have read they are very fixable. This isn't a Tyler Matzek where you need to change his mechanics due to injury concerns. It's more of cleaning up than changing. Obviously high school players bring more risk than college guys but as Twins fans we have seen with Wimmers..... Even the safest picks can fail.

[cmb0252]

During the 6 years Johnson has been the Twins scouting director he has only drafted 2 HS pitchers in the first 5 rounds (33 total picks). While his last two years he has taken Boyd and JO it still might be a mute point.

[nicksaviking]

Adam Johnson WAS the safe pick. He was the near ready college arm. I don't remember the draft chatter (it was 2000, was there such a thing?) but 5 of the next 6 pitchers taken were HS arms. None ever appeared in a MLB game.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Everyone thought Johnson was the real deal. It's sad that it didn't work out.

 

Personally, I'd want either Stewart or Manaea at this pick (assuming of course Appel or Gray are gone). I'm not going to complain much about either one of these guys. The question with Stewart is what it will take to sign him. At 4 overall, I think he signs. Once you get into the middle of the first round though, I'm not so certain.

[kab21]

I feel like my work with you and Kab is paying off recently. I've seen you both use not only the "elite starter" tag but also you're advocating for the high upside arm pick. I feel a bit like Darth Sidious.

 

I wouldn't take too much credit. Max Fried (last year's top HS pitcher) has been a favorite of mine for a long time. Stewart compares favorably to him for upside and risk. the thing with Stewart this year is that there aren't multiple college pitchers out there like last year. The Twins will likely have their pick of Bryant or Manaea and a trio of HS hitters (Meadows, Frazier and Denney) to pick from. Right now the HS hitters don't have buxton no doubt best player buzz going for them. That leaves one of the two college players and comparably risky HS hitters. I think it's close enough that Stewart can move ahead of the HS'ers. Bryant is no doubt #3 for me and I'm still unsure about Manaea. He is a college pitcher but he does have pretty good upside and less risk.

[Badsmerf]

I feel like my work with you and Kab is paying off recently. I've seen you both use not only the "elite starter" tag but also you're advocating for the high upside arm pick. I feel a bit like Darth Sidious.

I think our exploration just reinforced what I had previously thought. There is a proven way to get elite starters, you have to draft them in the first round. Considering the Twins have drafted in the 20's since taking Mauer in 2001, they haven't really drafted high profile arms and the evidence is the lack of them in the system. Waldrop in 2004 was a high school pitcher drafted at 25. He was the only HS pitcher drafted in the first round or supplemental round since Dan Serafini in 1992. Wow. Rainville was also drafted out of High School that year. Hudson Boyd was taken in 2011... at #55... pretty far down in the supplemental round. So really, it isn't surprising the Twins haven't had any elite starters... they don't even try to draft them! To get elite starters in the 20's it almost has to be HS pitchers right? There were a few college guys that fell that late in the 1st, but many top college guys like Appel will be gone right away.

[cmb0252]

Tons on Kohl Stewart from Jim Callis' weekly chat:

 

What are the chances Kohl Stewart signs if drafted? What sort of prospect ceiling would he have?

Jim Callis: I think he’ll go so high that it will be an easy choice to sign. And while he may want to play QB at Texas A&M, it’s no lock that reigning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel leaves in a year. So Stewart might not get to start at QB for the Aggies until 2015. He has a huge ceiling–potential No. 1 starter. I’d take him as the third pitcher in the draft, behind Appel and Gray.

 

Can you compare Kohl Stewart's current and potential to any HS pitchers from past few drafts?

Jim Callis: Talked to a scout who said he may be better than fellow Texan Jameson Taillon, who threw harder but couldn’t match the depth of Stewart’s repertoire. The same scout said on the Texas spectrum, he’d put Stewart behind Josh Beckett and ahead of Shelby Miller.

 

Can you see the Astros going with local, high-upside Kohl Stewart 1-1, saving some money as they did with Correa?

Jim Callis: Let’s shift to lighting-round mode … Don’t see that happening, and no HS RHP ever has gone No. 1 overall.

[Twins Twerp]

So glad that baseballamerica shows these chats for free. As far as the Twins draft goes, I have been thinking for awhile that the Twins will take either Stewart or Bryant, whichever one the Rockies don't take. I don't see Manea being an option because of the injury and such. Bryant's bat should be impactful/center of the lineup quality. I know we have Sano and other light fielding hitters, but I don't think you can have too many impact bats. Stewart scares me a little as RH HS pitchers are a little risky. He also has some leverage with Texas A & M. I just don't feel it. I know it is still early, but BPA might be Bryant and the Twins might jump on him. We had plenty of OF'ers last year and took Buxton. How did that work out?

[cmb0252]

From Christopher Crawford's chat:

[TABLE=width: 0]

[TD=class: chatmsgtext viewer_text][TABLE=width: 0]

[/TD]

Comment From Matt

is there any chance stewart still goes to school?

[/TABLE]

[/TABLE]

 

[TABLE=width: 0]

[TD=class: chatmsgtime, bgcolor: #F6F6F6]3:09

[/TD]

[TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]I think a slim, slim chance. Ten percent or so. He's just too talented to not end up on a baseball diamond though.[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

[cmb0252]

I have Stewart at 3 on my board and Bryant at 4 so I would be happy with either. There is risk in all players college or HS, Alex Wimmers, but I understand the concerns about taking a HS pitcher that high. After saying that, I'm not to worried about Stewart. Smart kid, already has 2 above average pitches, and is super athletic. Worth the risk IMO.

[drjim]

I have assumed that Appel, Gray and Bryant would go 1-3 in some order. In that scenario I still figured that the Twins would go with Manea.

 

However, with the current strong state of the system, a couple of quality arms (Gibson, Meyer) about ready to join the rotation and some decent pitching depth elsewhere maybe the Twins are poised to take on a little more risk for the higher upside of Stewart. I would be on board.

[kab21]

The thing is that Manaea is a bit different from the typical college pitcher. He's actually shaping up as a risky pick with a lot of upside. He has a good fastball and an inconsistent slider that could be plus-plus. His change is only average by most accounts. I think his prospect status could be anywhere from Meyer (looking awesome) and May (looking like a RP'er) in a year. As a potential #4 pick he will definitely get every chance to start but so will May.

 

Stewart is actually similar. He might have a little more upside but there is also more downside.

[cmb0252]

Regarding Stewart today in Keith Laws chat:

 

Law- Having talked to more scouts this week, I think I'll have Stewart a little lower on the next top 100 because of concerns about his durability. It's top-of-the-rotation stuff, but there are real concerns about whether he'll ever be a 200-inning guy.

 

Can you expand a little on why Stewart may not be durable? Are there mechanical issues?

[h=6]Klaw (1:15 PM)

[/h]

 

He's had a lot of minor injuries or other issues (not makeup stuff, all physical) that have kept him from making starts on time. It's a minor red flag, but something to consider if you're looking at him with a top 10 pick. I still think he's the best prep arm in the draft.

 

 

[cmb0252]

While I had heard concerns about his type 1 diabetes I hadn't heard overall health concerns. I'm still a big fan but it just gives us one more question mark for a guy the Twins might draft.

[nicksaviking]

I like Stewert and would be fine taking the risk, but he doesn't sound quite like a Bundy or Taillon. If the Twins took him and he busted, I would fear they may be scared off from drafting another HS arm high in the draft for the foreseeable future.

 

In other words, I'm not afraid of drafting a bust, but I'm afraid of the how the Twins would react if they do.

[cmb0252]

From Jim Callis draft chat:

 

Do you believe Kohl Stewart is potential ace and how much development is necessary for him to get there?

Jim Callis: I do. One scouting director told me his stuff is just as good as Appel’s and Gray’s, and he’s more athletic. Stewart will need some time to get acclimated to pro ball, do things like refine his command and use his changeup, build up the durability to pitch every fifth day. But with his stuff, he could be in the big leagues in 2015.

[BCTwins]

From Jim Callis draft chat:

 

But with his stuff, he could be in the big leagues in 2015.

 

That's a neat thought, what with the ETA for Berrios and a year or two of seasoning for Gibson and Meyer.

[Brodin4Calder]

I think unless for some odd reason Appel or Gray falls to the Twins they take Bryant or Stewart and maybe Manaea if they really like him. Bryant has the best overall bat in the draft IMO. It could be 2 straight years where the Twins get the best position player in the draft. Stewart is also a great option, I think hes the only pitcher other than Gray and Appel that could be a real ace. He could even be better than those 2 when he gets older and has better coaching. Manaea showed everyone he has ace stuff, he has similar stuff to David Price(In now way am I saying hes gonna be him or is as good as him) its just a question of if he can get better coaching can he be more consistent and can he reach his potential.

[diehardtwinsfan]

From Jim Callis draft chat:

 

Do you believe Kohl Stewart is potential ace and how much development is necessary for him to get there?

Jim Callis: I do. One scouting director told me his stuff is just as good as Appel’s and Gray’s, and he’s more athletic. Stewart will need some time to get acclimated to pro ball, do things like refine his command and use his changeup, build up the durability to pitch every fifth day. But with his stuff, he could be in the big leagues in 2015.

 

If he has a reasonable ETA of 2015, he just became my top choice (sans an Appel/Gray drop), as he could help out the next wave. 2017 is more reasonable though.