Max Kepler

[Sssuperdave]

I've been intrigued by Max Kepler ever since the Twins signed him almost four years ago as a 16 year old out of Germany. He has raw tools that make the scouts rave and a very unique background as the son of two professional ballet dancers. According to the Washington Post, he was considered possibly the best European prospect ever when he was signed in 2009.

 

With that, here is some key info:

 

Name: Maximilian Kepler

Position: OF

Bats: Left

Throws: Left

Born: 2/10/93

Signed: July 2009 (International - Germany)

Height: 6'4"

Weight: 180 on Baseball Reference, 220 according to Ashley Marshall's article this past January

 

Kepler should be spending this year with the Cedar Rapids Kernels, but is currently in extended spring training rehabbing an elbow injury. According to Mister-Baseball.com, he will be joining the Kernals around the end of April.

 

There's been a lot of great articles written about Kepler, here are links to a few:

 

Articles from 2009:

• Wall Street Journal article by John Miller - "Baryshnikov in Baseball Cleats"
  
• Washington Post article by Cameron Smith - "The Top European Prospect Ever"
  
• MLB.com article by Kelly Theiser - "Twins' Kepler-Rozycki is in his element"
  

 

Article from 2012:

• heinnews article by David Hein (Q&A session) - "One-on-One: Minnesota Twins’ German outfielder Max Kepler"
  

 

Articles from 2013:

• Twins Daily article by Nick Nelson - "TD Top Prospects: #10 Max Kepler"
  
• Twins Daily article by Cody Christie (inlcudes links to writeups by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Keith Law) - "How Max Kepler can help conquer Europe"
  
• Pioneer Press article by Tom Powers - "Minnesota Twins' German prospect considered wunderbar"
  
• Mlb.com article by Ashley Marshall - "Passport Prospects: Max Kepler"
  

 

Over the next couple of weeks, I plan on posting some stats, video, and my own analysis of his breakout 2012 season.

[Sssuperdave]

As promised, here is some video of Kepler.

 

First, there are two videos from the WBC qualifying round on his mlb.com page:

Max Kepler Stats, Video Highlights, Photos, Bio | MLB.com: Team

 

Next, here's a video from 2010 in the Gulf Coast League:[video=youtube;hTTZu1BF4cI]

 

The biggest thing that jumps out to me from these three videos is how awesome his swing looks. I'm not a scout by any stretch, but there are a few players whose swings just look great to me - no excess movement, smooth and strong. Kepler is definitely one of those.

[Sssuperdave]

Here is a video of Kepler taking batting practice that was uploaded this past December:

[video=youtube;nL1OxzlhmhE]

[Sssuperdave]

And lastly... here is an interview with Kepler by MLB Europe during the qualifying round of the WBC:

 

[video=youtube;RwPnzi6rbZc]

[raindog]

Thanks for posting this. I'm such a fan of this guy. Like you said, I'm no scout either, but I love his swing.

[kab21]

He's still lean but you can see how much he has filled out since 2010.

 

It looks like the one knock on Kepler is still there. He has a nice swing that should result in a high BA with a lot of line drives but there might not be enough loft to hit many HR's. I'm still pretty excited about him but I'm concerned that there will be some that are disappointed if he only hits 15 HR's as a LF/RF'er.

[Sssuperdave]

Kepler's stats from his three years as a professional are below:

[TABLE=width: 956]

Tm

Lg

Lev

Aff

G

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Twins

GULF

Rk

MIN

37

153

140

15

40

6

1

[/TD]

11

6

1

13

27

0.286

0.346

0.343

0.689

Elizabethton

APPY

Rk

MIN

50

221

191

29

50

11

3

1

24

1

1

23

54

0.262

0.347

0.366

0.714

Elizabethton

APPY

Rk

MIN

59

269

232

40

69

16

5

10

49

7

27

33

0.297

0.387

0.539

0.925

[/TABLE]

 

As you can see, 2012 was quite a breakout year for Kepler. OBP was up 40 points, Slugging up 160, resulting in OPS up 200. He hit 10 homeruns vs 1 in the prior two seasons, and increased his walks while reducing strikeouts. As a result of all of these improvements Kepler jumped multiple spots on pretty much everyones top prospects list.

 

However, a closer examination of his 2012 season reveals that he may have made some intriguing changes to his approach mid-season. I followed him closely last year, and was getting discouraged by mid July that he hadn't hit any homeruns. Then, starting with a grandslam on July 16th, he went on a tear, hitting 7 home runs in two weeks. Then, his power seemed to cool off a bit the rest of the year.

 

To follow up on what I thought I saw last year, I analyzed his 2012 season by breaking it into three segments. Here they are:

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 600, align: center]

Segment

G

AB

HR

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

1. June 19 - July 15

22

81

[TD]18

8

.296

.452

.407

.859

2. July 16 - July 27

11

45

7

2

8

.267

.313

.778

1.090

3. July 28 - Aug 28

26

106

3

7

16

.311

.354

.538

.892

[/TABLE]

 

The drastic difference between segemts 1 and 2 jumps out at me. In the last two weeks of July, his average was 30 points lower and his OBP was over 100 points lower than the first month of the season, but his SLG and OPS were dramatically higher, obviously driven by his new-found homerun swing. His walks dropped precipitously and he had as many strikeouts in 2 weeks as the previous 4. This suggests to me that his homeruns were not just a matter of some additional strength and fly balls carrying a bit further (which I think Mauer's 09 season was), rather a wholesale change of approach at the plate.

 

The third segment (the last month of the season) seems to be a compromise between the first two. He still hit some home runs, though not at such a torrid pace, and his AVG and OBP came back up a bit, with average actually higher than the first month, and OBP not as high but still strong at .354.

 

This approach change is supported by something Kepler is quoted as saying in an article by Ashley Marshall earlier this year:

 

"I came into the league an oppo [opposite-field] hitter, being fairly slim at 180 and being a pretty fast guy for my size. I'm 220 now -- I gained like 40 pounds -- and I've really learned to pull the ball this last season."

 

"I'd say the long ball is my thing now. It used to be slapping the ball, getting on base, stealing bases. But I've changed that around and I will keep growing if I stay healthy. I just love running and stealing bases and I hope I don't lose my speed because of my size. I want to be big and fast."

 

So, what do we make of all this? To me, it is nothing but encouraging. He's now shown he can hit for power, average, and exercise plate discipline. The question is whether he will move even further in the power-hitter direction, or try to balance things out to become a more well-rounded threat. That last month of 2012 is actually the most encouraging stretch to me. He had the best average of the season and brought his OBP back up while still hitting a few home runs.

[Sssuperdave]

I had an email exchange with Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette yesterday and asked him if he had heard anything about when Kepler might join the team. Here was his response...

 

Talked to Brad Steil about Kepler this week, actually, and he just mentioned the elbow injury and that it improved and then he had a setback. They don’t think it’s anything serious.

 

No timetable for a return to playing.

 

Good to hear they don't think it's serious, but it's too bad that he's missing so much time. I was looking forward to seeing how he would fare in his first full season.

[Einstein]

Does anyone have an update on Kepler?

[fairweather]

I'm seriously high on this kid. Can't wait to watch him at Target Field in a couple years.

[Sssuperdave]

Terry Ryan was on Reusse and Mackey this afternoon and Reusse asked him about Kepler. Ryan said a lot of very complimentary things including that Kepler was a "big, strong kid," that he was definitely ready for low-A ball if not for the injury, and that he was "the real deal." However, Ryan confirmed that Kepler is still out with the elbow issue but didn't say anything very specific. All he said was that Kepler had a "sore elbow" and hadn't been able to play. He said Kepler was supposed to play today in EST for the first time in a while and that he would be checking the box score carefully to make sure he did. (Side note - does anyone know if EST boxscores are online anywhere???)

 

I'm probably reading too much into this, but Ryan sounded pretty frustrated when he was talking about Kepler's elbow. This seems to me like one of those classic Twins injury situations we've seen over and over again in the past few years. Someone looks like they'll be out for a few games and end up out for a couple months with no clear injury other than something that is bruised, sore, etc. I imagine this happens to all teams, but it sure is frustrating! As frustrating as it is for us as fans, I have to think it is countless times more frustrating for the players themselves.

 

I'm hoping for the best for Kepler as he gets into games in EST, hopefully we will see him in Cedar Rapids soon!

[Smcginnity]

What is going on with Kepler? When is he coming back?

[Steve Lein]

I hope it's soon! He's also one of my favorite prospects we have down in the system. I too like his swing. The year before this I got to watch quite a bit of him at Spring Training, where he was playing with the Beloit roster (that included Sano, Vargas, Rosario), and he was the best in-game hitter without a doubt. You tend to notice when everything he hit was a line drive somewhere. This one was especially well-struck: Max Kepler lines a double down the opposite field line (video) on Twitpic

 

Never like to hear the injury questions when it comes to Twins players like this though, hasn't boded well for them in recent times...

[Steven Buhr]

Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette is reporting that Kepler is headed to Cedar Rapids. In a follow-up Tweet, however, he also added that he's heard Kepler's elbow is "still not good enough to throw."

 

Jake Mauer had previously told the media that Kepler would not be sent up to the Kernels until he could play in the field. Should be interesting to see what's up when he gets to CR.

[Sssuperdave]

As other folks have noted, Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette has posted that Kepler will be joining the Kernels starting Thursday after their all-star break. According to the blog post below Jake Mauer said over the weekend that Kepler's elbow was still preventing him from playing in the field. Perhaps he'll be the DH for a while? Either way, I am certainly excited to hear he'll be back in action soon.

 

Kepler headed to Kernels; end of line for Buxton? | TheGazette

[Sssuperdave]

Kepler saw his first action of the year this week playing in 4 games for Cedar Rapids. He played LF on his first day back so evidentally they felt his elbow was ready for the test. On the week Kepler had 5 hits (3 of the doubles), 2 walks, 3 RBI, and 4 strikeouts, resulting a 4-day slash line of .278/.350/.444, which is a .794 OPS.

 

It will be interesting to see how much time he gets in CF now that Buxton has been promoted to Fort Meyers. Last week he played 2 games in LF and was the DH twice.

[Sssuperdave]

SD Buhr posted a great article today than includes an interview with Kepler. Check it out!

 

Kernels Post-Buxton Era Begins: Welcome Max Kepler - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

 

Here's my favorite quote:

 

SDB: Do you have a particular hitting philosophy? Do you see yourself as a power hitter or are you just concerned about driving the ball and if it goes over the fence, fine?

Kepler: I used to strictly see myself as a contact hitter. I came to the Twins as a contact hitter, just going (opposite field) all the time.

Now, basically, it’s just a start to a new season, first couple games, just see the ball right now and hit it. But when I’m in a groove, I like it to go far, the ball to go deep.

 

SDB also asks lots of great questions about Kepler's parents and growing up in Germany playing baseball.

[Sssuperdave]

Big day for Kepler today with a homerun and a double. In addition, he played centerfield due to the Buxton promotion.

[Steven Buhr]

Glad you enjoyed the article, Sssuperdave. I really enjoyed talking to Kepler Sunday.

 

Then again, I've enjoyed interviewing all of the Kernels I've had a chance to sit down with this season. They've all been fun to talk to and obviously a terrific team to watch play ball.

[goulik]

First CR Kernels game and Max really helped me get over missing the Buxton era...was supposed to see them April 17th but was rained out. Kepler looks like the real deal but with his size does he really project as CF prospect? I thought he looks more like a corner outfield long term.

[Sssuperdave]

I just found this writeup of Jeff Johnson's from a couple days ago:

 

Kernels’ new CF “ist ein guter baseball-spieler”

 

In the article Kepler has this to say about his elbow injury:

 

“It took me awhile to get back, but it’s better. A lot better, a lot stronger,” Kepler said of his elbow. “It was depressing, very depressing to go through. It felt like I went through a depression. But injuries are a part of baseball. You’ve just got to fight through it.”

 

In other news, Kepler got a single and walked in a run yesterday, meaning he's on a 6 game hitting streak. Not bad for only playing 7 games! Hopefully the elbow issues are entirely behind him.

[2wins87]

First CR Kernels game and Max really helped me get over missing the Buxton era...was supposed to see them April 17th but was rained out. Kepler looks like the real deal but with his size does he really project as CF prospect? I thought he looks more like a corner outfield long term.

 

He probably fits best in LF. He's not as fast as he was when he was younger and smaller and his arm is probably just average.

[Sssuperdave]

First CR Kernels game and Max really helped me get over missing the Buxton era...was supposed to see them April 17th but was rained out. Kepler looks like the real deal but with his size does he really project as CF prospect? I thought he looks more like a corner outfield long term.

 

In an interview a couple of summers ago Kepler mentioned more than once that he aspired to be a Josh Hamilton type. Hamilton is listed on Baseball-Reference as 6-4, 225, which is the same height and just a few pounds heavier than Kepler now. Hamilton has played plenty of CF, so I don't think it's out of the question based on size alone. I don't think Kepler would ever be playing CF on the same team as Buxton or Hicks though.

[Steven Buhr]

Kepler had the game-winning walk-off single Sunday afternoon for Cedar Rapids. That's their 10th straight win to start the second half of the MWL season.

 

The Kernels Board of Directors has a tradition where they treat the team to dinner at an Amana Colonies restaurant any time they put together a 10 game winning streak, so yesterday's win accomplished that. If you're not familiar with the Amana Colonies, it's a German community and the restaurants specialize in German food (as well as American) and largely serve "family style" which means the side dishes, etc., are pretty much unlimited.

 

Kepler's quote from the MSR postgame account:

 

"Free meal? That's awesome," said Kepler, who grew up in Berlin. "So schnitzel and bratwurst? Sauerbraten? I'm really excited. I haven't had German food in awhile, so I'm really excited for that."

 

Check out Jim Ecker's full article:

Kepler earns German feast with big hit

[Sssuperdave]

Kepler had quite a week, especially considering it was his first full week in A-ball. He hit .273/407/636 (1.044) on the week including 2 doubles, 2 homeruns, and a walkoff single to give the Kernels their 10th straight win and a free meal. Check out the metro sports report article linked in the post above for a couple nice quotes. In the field, Kepler played center field in 4 games, right field in 1, and was the DH once.

 

Here's an interesting stat - Kepler has 11 hits so fat this year, and only 4 of them are singles. The other 7 are 5 doubles and 2 homeruns. All of that makes his slugging percentage (.550) exactly double his average (.275)

[Steven Buhr]

Kepler launched a mammoth home run, against the wind, in Monday night's game and then added a triple later. Gotta wonder if Mike Pelfrey tried to stuff Kepler in the trunk of his car and take him back up to Minneapolis with him.

[Sssuperdave]

Kepler had an up-and-down week at the plate, with monster games on Monday (HR and Triple) and Friday (4 for 5 including a double), but went 0 for 3 on Thursday and 0 for 5 on Saturday. All together he had a great slash line for the week of .345/.367/.553 (.918). His 4 hits on Friday brought his average for the year over .300, and his full year slash line is now .304/.377/.551 (.927).

 

Kepler played 4 games in Center,2 at DH, and one game at first base on Wednesday. He played 3 games at first back in 2011 at Elizabethton, but other than that has always been an outfielder.

[Seth Stohs]

Seeing Kepler in 2 games and batting practice, and SDBuhr may agree... Kepler is incredibly impressive. Size, good speed, decent defense. Incredibly quick, powerful bat! Jake Mauer glowed about him. The only question is how big he will get and what position he will play.

[Sssuperdave]

Kepler had a rough week, going 1 for 22 with 9 strikeouts. This slump brought his numbers for the year down quite a bit to .242/.303/.429 (.732). Hopefully things will turn around this week!

[clutterheart]

His splits are concerning. He is flailing against lefties. 10 SO in 23 ABs against lefties is very poor. He is going to have to get better.