Maeda expectations

[mikelink45]

I keep seeing Maeda's name come up.  He is out for the year, but what should we really expect. 

In 2020 he was near Cy Young for 60 games.  Would he have been that for another 100?  

Since 2016 he is 59 - 41 with a 3.87 ERA - that is really good, but the fact is that only 2020 and his rookie years were below that ERA level.  It is brought down by 2020 because that year represented almost 10% of all his starts.  I think Maeda is a really good pitcher, but in his absence I think we project him to be more than what we should really expect. 

Last year before his injury he had a 4.66 era.  It was his highest was probably a symptom of his injury.  I would expect better than this when he returns, but not as good as 2020.  When he comes back next year he will be 35 and most pitchers are not Scherzer, Verlander or the other HOF pitchers who can keep on going into their 40s.  Fangraphs has a good aging article  which gives more to think about in aging staffs.

I think he is a #3 or 4 in the rotation, not the top two that everyone wants.  However, a rotation of Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Ober, Winder would look really good!

[Linus]

One thing he has going for him is that he never has been a power pitcher. To me this gives him a better comeback chance at an older age. 
if not it’s just another bad move by Falvine. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

well, went out late last year, so I don't expect him to do anything this season. He should be ready to go next spring, and hopefully his old self. 

[dex8425]

13 minutes ago, Linus said:

One thing he has going for him is that he never has been a power pitcher. To me this gives him a better comeback chance at an older age. 
if not it’s just another bad move by Falvine. 

He did have that ability. Reliever Kenta out of the bullpen could hit 96-97 for the Dodgers. But his strength was never throwing fastballs by hitters. Changeup moves LR, slider moves RL, and the occasional FB to keep hitters honest. 

[gunnarthor]

I was the low guy on Maeda last year. If he pitches at all, it'll only be like 20 innings this year. Going forward, I think he'll be a back-end starter type. Maybe they'll use him as a three inning opener or such. But he won't be the answer to our pitching issues. 

[TopGunn#22]

I agree that he should not be considered a #1 or #2.  But with youngen's like Ryan, Ober, Winder,  Balazovic and Canterino waiting in the wings he could/should make Archer and Bundy un-needed depending on what THEY show this year.