Article: Inefficient Managing of "Dollars and Years"

[Willihammer]

Um, I'm not sure I'm following this...

 

Yeah that was confusing. I meant, as I posted earlier in more detail, that the spread between the best-worst fielding LFers and SS is almost exactly the same. (Its actually greater for LFers). Ergo, you can afford to sacrifice leather at SS for power just as you would, conventionally, at the corners. Like with Hanley, who is probably the worst SS in baseball no matter what metric you like. And yet just by being a 6 hole type bat, he's a starter and a overall a pretty valuable one at that.

[LoganJones]

Nope. Hopeng that I would get the data.

Well, the only player who the Twins have who has comparable data for the past 3 seasons is Carroll. He's been worth 2.6,2.2 and 2.4 WAR Compared to Johnson's 5.8, 2.2, .7.

 

I do have to take back my claim he's only had good fielding years on turf. He actually was rated highly in 2010 in the field, too. Thanks to a strong 2010 He's been worth one win more than Carroll. Florimon was worth .3 win last year based on defense and base running. Weird.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If we buy the idea that Ronny Cedeno is suddenly getting better at hitting, just kinda out of the blue, then we also have to consider the idea that Florimon can get better with some time.

 

No, we don't. Florimon hasn't posted an OPS above .700 since A ball and never posted a season anywhere close to .800.

[ThePuck]

Yeah that was confusing. I meant, as I posted earlier in more detail, that the spread between the best-worst fielding LFers and SS is almost exactly the same. (Its actually greater for LFers). Ergo, you can afford to sacrifice leather at SS for power just as you would, conventionally, at the corners. Like with Hanley, who is probably the worst SS in baseball no matter what metric you like. And yet just by being a 6 hole type bat, he's a starter and a overall a pretty valuable one at that.

 

So, your comment wasn't just about pure defense look? Because a guy who gloves like, say, Hardy or Ryan at shortstop should be way more valuable on the defensive side than even an Alex Gordon in LF...if just looking at what their value is on defense on an even scale, if you get what I mean.

[snepp]

No, we don't. Florimon hasn't posted an OPS above .700 since A ball and never posted a season anywhere close to .800.

 

Add in, while Cedeno was putrid as a really young player in the minors, he posted a 900+ OPS in his time at AAA, and generally improved as he went up the ladder.

 

The two players obviously aren't a great comparison offensively.

[LoganJones]

No, we don't. Florimon hasn't posted an OPS above .700 since A ball and never posted a season anywhere close to .800.

Cedeno was a terrible hitter in the minors, too. His numbers get puffed up a bit from playing in the PCL, but beyond that his track record looks pretty much the same. I'm not hating on the guy, he's a fine slick fielding no-hitting big league shortstop. I just don't see where he's worth a look when Florimon is following in his footsteps.

[ThePuck]

Fangraphs has Ryan with 27 defensive runs saved. Tops for the qualifying shortstops. They have Jeter last at -16.4 runs saved. So a gap of 43.4.

 

Fangraphs has Gordon with 24 defensive runs saved. Tops for qualifying LF. Gonzalez and Willingham are tied with -13. A difference of 37.

[old nurse]

In trying to assess what player brings the stat guys are using strictly batting statistics, wouldn't WAR be a little more reflective of the total effect of the player. Or in using WAR alone, the problem is that it might show the Twins should have hung onto Casilla?

[panolo]

Whatever the decision is, it'll be made before ST if it hasn't been made already (and it likely has). ST isn't gonna change anything.

 

I don't know if I totally agree with that but... I can see Dozier having a very good spring and him starting the season AAA so as he doesn't have extra pressure on himself. Not that I would like that move.

[ThePuck]

I don't know if I totally agree with that but... I can see Dozier having a very good spring and him starting the season AAA so as he doesn't have extra pressure on himself. Not that I would like that move.

 

The last three big ST battles we had...or at least that I can remember:

 

2008 ST battle for CF: When Gomez 'won' the CF battle, Span had better numbers.

2010 ST battle for 3B: Harris out played Punto. Punto won. You remember. Punto is my starting shortstop (Twins trade for Hardy)...um, okay, Punto is my starting 2B (Twins sign Hudson)...um, ok Punto and Harris will battle for 3B. Oh, surprise surprise, Punto 'wins'

2011 rotation battle with supposedly six quality starters but only 5 spots. The guy who had the best ST ERA (Slowey) was the one who ended up out of the rotation.

[old nurse]

His point being, you routinely demand proof of others, while never providing any yourself.

 

The post was using statistical data and I was interested in more. I see you have a problem with that. So it is wrong to ask for more data from someone who presents data? You have the moderator behind your name, so you tell me? Should I not ask for more data and information from people? Or should I do as some and write mostly snark?

[panolo]

The last three big ST battles we had...or at least that I can remember:

 

2008 ST battle for CF: When Gomez 'won' the CF battle, Span had better numbers.

2010 ST battle for 3B: Harris out played Punto. Punto won. You remember. Punto is my starting shortstop (Twins trade for Hardy)...um, okay, Punto is my starting 2B (Twins sign Hudson)...um, ok Punto and Harris will battle for 3B. Oh, surprise surprise, Punto 'wins'

2011 rotation battle with supposedly six quality starters but only 5 spots. The guy who had the best ST ERA (Slowey) was the one who ended up out of the rotation.

 

 

I remember and maybe just hope things get finalized without some pre-determined outcome. So maybe against my better judgement I won't agree totally with you

[TheLeviathan]

God forbid a team adds more assets.

[ThePuck]

I remember and maybe just hope things get finalized without some pre-determined outcome. So maybe against my better judgement I won't agree totally with you

 

Fair enough :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Cedeno was a terrible hitter in the minors, too. His numbers get puffed up a bit from playing in the PCL, but beyond that his track record looks pretty much the same. I'm not hating on the guy, he's a fine slick fielding no-hitting big league shortstop. I just don't see where he's worth a look when Florimon is following in his footsteps.

 

Minor league numbers don't really matter when the player has 2500 Major League plate appearances, with the last 1300 of them being of a respectable OPS+ (somewhere in the mid to high 80s).

 

Even if Florimon was following Cedeno's footsteps (and there's no real reason to think that), Cedeno had 1200 plate appearances of pretty awful offense early in his career. Is that what the Twins want from Florimon over the next two seasons?

[Twins GFP]

I guess we are scraping the bottom of the barrel if we have been relegated to complaining about the potential of a $2 million vesting option on a fringe starting middle infielder.

 

Can we officially now say that there is nothing left for us to complain about when it comes to the Twins?

[jokin]

I guess we are scraping the bottom of the barrel if we have been relegated to complaining about the potential of a $2 million vesting option on a fringe starting middle infielder.

 

Can we officially now say that there is nothing left for us to complain about when it comes to the Twins?

 

Conveniently ignoring the part about him being 40 in 2014 and initially signed as a FA in the role of "utility infielder".

[Willihammer]

So, your comment wasn't just about pure defense look? Because a guy who gloves like, say, Hardy or Ryan at shortstop should be way more valuable on the defensive side than even an Alex Gordon in LF...if just looking at what their value is on defense on an even scale, if you get what I mean.

That's what I thought would be the case before I cracked into some numbers. You can look at the data for 2010-2012 players here (min 1000 Innings): https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-X21zdHI4cVgwY3c/edit?usp=sharing

 

Although SS will have more balls hit to him, there is just as much variation from the mean in terms of balls fielded, as with LF. This is the case whether or not you include out of zone balls in your totals. (Previously I just looked at in-zone opps and plays made).

 

For LFers:

[TABLE=width: 336]

[TD=colspan: 7]Bottom Range of Total Plays made / 1500 Inn[/TD]

[TD=align: right]260[/TD]

[TD=colspan: 7]Upper Range of Total Plays made / 1500 Inn[/TD]

[TD=align: right]398[/TD]

[TD=colspan: 4]Mean Total Plays / 1500 Inn[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]310

STDEV

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]34.4

[TD=colspan: 2]2 STDEV Low Limit[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]241

[TD=colspan: 2]2 STDEV High Limit[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]379

[/TABLE]

 

For SSs:

[TABLE=width: 306]

[TD=colspan: 6]Bottom Range of Total Plays Made / 1500 Inn[/TD]

[TD=align: right]361[/TD]

[TD=colspan: 5]Top Range Total Plays Made / 1500 Inn[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]470

[TD=colspan: 4]Mean Total Plays / 1500 Inn[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]424

STDEV

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]30

[TD=colspan: 3]2 STDEV Low Limit[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]364

[TD=colspan: 3]2 STDEV High Limit[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]484

[/TABLE]

 

When you think about it, its not surprising. IN today's game, Brett Gardner, Ben Revere and Juan Pierre are playing in the corners. Meanwhile Derek Jeter, Ricky Weeks, and Dan Uggla have MI jobs. Things have leveled out.

[Willihammer]

Fangraphs has Ryan with 27 defensive runs saved. Tops for the qualifying shortstops. They have Jeter last at -16.4 runs saved. So a gap of 43.4.

 

Fangraphs has Gordon with 24 defensive runs saved. Tops for qualifying LF. Gonzalez and Willingham are tied with -13. A difference of 37.

I don't know how they're arriving at a run value. All I'm looking at is simple: total inzone and out of zone plays over innings, and scaling to 1500 innings.

[Han Joelo]

It's not minutiae when the team is coming off back-to-back last place finishes, is fielding the same waaaaaaaay below average middle infield, and those combined "minutiae" players add up to over 10% of payroll (over 15% if you toss Nick Blackburn on the list, over 20% if Nishioka hadn't bowed out of his contract).

 

"Minutiae" adds up when you continue to pile up bad decisions.

 

I think we can agree that the Twins have a slim chance of contending this year. Why worry about the marginal value of MI's and 4/5 Starters? For the Twins to have had a decent chance of competing would have required throwing insane amounts of money at Greinke and Sanchez--far more than they signed for, to be complementary pieces on winning teams, vs. saviors on one of the worst, something I don't think either guy is exactly mentally suited for.

 

I'm not a big stat head, but the moves all this commenting has inspired might only improve the team by a win or two. I mean really, signing Kelly Johnson for MI or Kelly Shoppach to replace the Pariah or signing Kelly Marcum-Villaneuva-Baker-Saunders-Blanton is going to turn this team around? Hell no. If Gibson, Meyer, May, and Berrios develop, than we've got a juggernaut.

 

For me, these names and stats and contract figures are minutiae. Injury prone Marcum for 4 + 4 Mill for 1 year vs. Steady Correia for 10 for 2 years? Minimum wage Florimon vs. 2 Mill Cedeno? Who cares! They all suck. The difference is one or two wins. This team will blow as the winds of Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, and the cast of youngsters Seth outlined in his post takes them. If the winds blow favorably, like Luke Skywalker/Death Star or Frodo/Mt. Doom favorable, the unspent payroll will come in exceedingly handy come trade deadline. Maybe the pitching is adequate and the offense awesome and the competition horrible and the Twins are in striking distance at the deadline. Maybe Lincecum is revived in a walk year with a big contract. That cash in the Pohlad's bank will come in handy.

 

If not, they've gotten a good look at some failed decisions. And we'll hopefully get to watch a bunch of (hopefully) promising young prospects get their feet wet in MLB instead of a bunch of has beens.

[old nurse]

I don't know how they're arriving at a run value. All I'm looking at is simple: total inzone and out of zone plays over innings, and scaling to 1500 innings.

Since you appear to be advocating best bat possible for short than why not Doumit for SS? Since Doumit is a better LF than Willingham, Willingham to short and Doumit to left. Beloit moved Sano to third rather than short because of defense. Under your theory of having better defenders on the outside, that would appear to be a mistake as his replacements did not hit nearly as well as he did. Point really being you have to balance the defense with the offense. Yes it is putrid to have a .600 ops guy at short but there is a balance point somewhere with defense and offensive skills. Hanly has superior offensive skills that more than balance the defense as did Jeter in his younger days.

[Kwak]

The last three big ST battles we had...or at least that I can remember:

 

2008 ST battle for CF: When Gomez 'won' the CF battle, Span had better numbers.

2010 ST battle for 3B: Harris out played Punto. Punto won. You remember. Punto is my starting shortstop (Twins trade for Hardy)...um, okay, Punto is my starting 2B (Twins sign Hudson)...um, ok Punto and Harris will battle for 3B. Oh, surprise surprise, Punto 'wins'

2011 rotation battle with supposedly six quality starters but only 5 spots. The guy who had the best ST ERA (Slowey) was the one who ended up out of the rotation.

 

You forgot about last year's battle for 3B. Luke Hughes "won" and started at 3rd. But as soon as he struggled he was DFA'd and Plouffe became the starting 3B man despite a worse than Butera BAVG.

[edavis0308]

Since you appear to be advocating best bat possible for short than why not Doumit for SS? Since Doumit is a better LF than Willingham, Willingham to short and Doumit to left. Beloit moved Sano to third rather than short because of defense. Under your theory of having better defenders on the outside, that would appear to be a mistake as his replacements did not hit nearly as well as he did. Point really being you have to balance the defense with the offense. Yes it is putrid to have a .600 ops guy at short but there is a balance point somewhere with defense and offensive skills. Hanly has superior offensive skills that more than balance the defense as did Jeter in his younger days.

 

That's not what he meant and you know it.

[ThePuck]

You forgot about last year's battle for 3B. Luke Hughes "won" and started at 3rd. But as soon as he struggled he was DFA'd and Plouffe became the starting 3B man despite a worse than Butera BAVG.

 

Luke Hughes played 4 games for the Twins last year and never started at 3B

[ThePuck]

That's what I thought would be the case before I cracked into some numbers. You can look at the data for 2010-2012 players here (min 1000 Innings): https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-X21zdHI4cVgwY3c/edit?usp=sharing

 

Although SS will have more balls hit to him, there is just as much variation from the mean in terms of balls fielded, as with LF. This is the case whether or not you include out of zone balls in your totals. (Previously I just looked at in-zone opps and plays made).

 

For LFers:

 

 

For SSs:

 

 

When you think about it, its not surprising. IN today's game, Brett Gardner, Ben Revere and Juan Pierre are playing in the corners. Meanwhile Derek Jeter, Ricky Weeks, and Dan Uggla have MI jobs. Things have leveled out.

 

I appreciate your work on this, but I can't agree with your conclusions. Interesting take though.

[jokin]

That's not what he meant and you know it.

 

If I had a nickel for every time that was thought or stated in response to an ol'nurse post.....

[johnnydakota]

I agree with you, Roger, 100 percent. I tortured myself reading the Correia comments yesterday, and was kind of dismayed. Thanks Logan for fighting the good fight, but apparently at TD, one man's vitriol is another man's snark.

 

All this angst over such minutiae! I hope they need the saved money for a big mid season trade.

 

so the saved money is for a midseason trade? as in we will have to acquire a player who is paid so much we will need an extra 20 million to pay half his salary, or we are going to throw in an extra 20 mil. plus a prospect?

[johnnydakota]

If we buy the idea that Ronny Cedeno is suddenly getting better at hitting, just kinda out of the blue, then we also have to consider the idea that Florimon can get better with some time. The reason I'm not jumping off the Correia cliff is that I see him as a worthy upgrade over what the Twins had to offer. Cedeno & Johnson? Not true upgrades. If they'd signed Johnson, I would have been cool with it, as he's likely to hit some key homers. Cedeno would have mystified me since they already have him in Florimon.

 

I havent looked at cedeno,or johnsons stats, but im guessing they hit better then the .220 florimon did...

[old nurse]

That's not what he meant and you know it.

 

He in his original post is claiming that corner defense is more important because the damage done by having lesser players in those roles is worse than having less of a glove at shortstop. If indeed the shortstop position can be manned by a poor defensive player to get the best bat possible then the current best bat on the Twins is Doumit. Please try to tell me among the bench players there is a better bat without a position. If his solution to the current Twins dilemma is to get as good as bat as possible given the current state of the Twins and Rochester rosters there wouldn't be many options. That he justifies it with Ben Revere as a corner outfielder because of his defense ignores the fact that one of the two center fielders had to play right.

[edavis0308]

He in his original post is claiming that corner defense is more important because the damage done by having lesser players in those roles is worse than having less of a glove at shortstop. If indeed the shortstop position can be manned by a poor defensive player to get the best bat possible then the current best bat on the Twins is Doumit. Please try to tell me among the bench players there is a better bat without a position. If his solution to the current Twins dilemma is to get as good as bat as possible given the current state of the Twins and Rochester rosters there wouldn't be many options.

 

So your point is we should play a pitcher at center! Butera should be a starting pitcher! Morneau starts at short! We get your nonsensical argument but if you're going to be dense enough to not think he was limiting his argument to only players that are only classified at each given position, albeit the below average players both offensive and defensively, then.. well....grow up.