Hicks leading candidate for CF job.

[jokin]

I don't know. Their assessment of Dozier's readiness and putting Parmelee on the roster to start the season last year didn't work out that well.

 

Batting .1000 today, Alex.

 

The Twins showed they really didn't know what they were doing from opening day last year. Anyone remember, the debate about Willingham in RF or LF and Doumit's adventures in outfielding, Parmelee never getting one single inning rep in the OF at AAA?

[Boom Boom]

The service time issue really only matters if Hicks becomes a mainstay and the Twins don't sign him to a major league contract by his last year of service.

 

If he flops, it doesn't matter that you used up a year of service time. If he lights it up, you can sign him to a contract and you wouldn't have to worry about service time.

[jokin]

The service time issue really only matters if Hicks becomes a mainstay and the Twins don't sign him to a major league contract by his last year of service.

 

If he flops, it doesn't matter that you used up a year of service time. If he lights it up, you can sign him to a contract and you wouldn't have to worry about service time.

 

All true, but fiduciarially, this is a decision that must be taken with long-term ramifications fully accounted for, and given the repeated proof of the Twins unwillingness to spend freely, Option One is the only way to go.

[snepp]

Or he lights it up and takes his services elsewhere.....a year earlier than he would have otherwise.

[Alex]

One other point of reference in comparison of Hicks to Hunter.

 

Hunter had 2540 plate appearances in the minors and struck out 446 times. (He walked only 178)

 

Hicks has 2110 plate appearances and has struck out 425 times. (Walked 313).

 

If Hicks starts the season in the majors, I think he could be very prone to strikeouts. He does have a lot more patience but it would be interesting to see how major league pitching affects his numbers. I think you could see him strike out a ton (maybe 150 times or more) and not walk nearly as much facing the superior pitching of the majors. I still think that his patience will be an asset long term and hope it translates but those K levels should be a concern and will be the major challenge of his transition.

[ThePuck]

Interesting comparison.

 

In AAA at 22 Hunter posted an .891 OPS in around 100 AB. Hunters's first two seasons were not impressive in the majors. His third season he crushed the ball and but still posted an OPS below .800 thanks to poor plate discipline and had an OPS + of 80. It's hard to say what would have happened with more seasoning, but the Twins certainly didn't get much out of his first three seasons.

 

Also, it's a minor point but one of Hick's season's above .800 was 45 games in the rookie league.

 

Look I'm not saying keep him down for the whole season, and if they start him I certainly hope he does well but some PAs in AAA wouldn't hurt, for multiple reasons.

 

Hunter's third season was pretty nice. 27 dingers, 92 RBI, OPS of .784 and an MVP vote or two. My point is this...he was brought up during a time when the rebuilding was going on and we weren't much of a team. He got his feet wet in the bigs, working out the kinks, without really hurting our ability to be contenders cause we weren't there yet. Same situation with Hicks.

 

Hicks has done better in the minors that Hunter...and he's a very similar player to Hunter overall. Some of the same weakness, a lot of the same strengths...and we're not going anywhere this season or next. I have no issues waiting to bring him up past the date where we get an extra yar of control, but I don't buy the whole seasoning reason, or whatever. He's had enough time.

 

Yes, Hicks is more prone to Ks than Hunter was in the minors, but he also gets on base at a much better clip...which is kind of what we need.

[ThePuck]

One other point of reference in comparison of Hicks to Hunter.

 

Hunter had 2540 plate appearances in the minors and struck out 446 times. (He walked only 178)

 

Hicks has 2110 plate appearances and has struck out 425 times. (Walked 313).

 

If Hicks starts the season in the majors, I think he could be very prone to strikeouts. He does have a lot more patience but it would be interesting to see how major league pitching affects his numbers. I think you could see him strike out a ton (maybe 150 times or more) and not walk nearly as much facing the superior pitching of the majors. I still think that his patience will be an asset long term and hope it translates but those K levels should be a concern and will be the major challenge of his transition.

 

'If Hicks starts the season in the majors, I think he could be very prone to strikeouts. '

 

One month in the minors won't fix that...

[jokin]

Hunter's third season was pretty nice. 27 dingers, 92 RBI, OPS of .784 and an MVP vote or two. My point is this...he was brought up during a time when the rebuilding was going on and we weren't much of a team. He got his feet wet in the bigs, working out the kinks, without really hurting our ability to be contenders cause we weren't there yet. Same situation with Hicks.

 

Hicks has done better in the minors that Hunter...and he's a very simliar player to Hunter overall. Some of the same weakness, a lot of the same strengths...and we're not going anywhere. I have no issues waiting to bring him up past the date where we get an extra yar of control, but I don't buy the whole seasoning reason, or whatever. He's had enough time.

 

Yes, Hicks is more prone to Ks than Hunter was in the minors, but he also gets on base at a much better clip...which is kind of what we need.

 

Puck, you're not implying with the "whole seasoning" thing that the opposing view suggests that the club should wait until September call-up for more "seasoning", just to "be sure"? He made a major hurdle last year, the FO offseason moves indicates that they have confidence that Hicks is on the verge of making the jump to starting CFer. What's wrong with fine-tuning the move fiduciarilly- and hopefully working out some of the aforementioned kinds that Alex mentioned with a brief stint at Roc. and lowering the pressure threshold and spotlight of an opening day start?

[Alex]

'If Hicks starts the season in the majors, I think he could be very prone to strikeouts. '

 

One month in the minors won't fix that...

 

No, it won't, but if he does well at AAA, it's more likely that those ratios are going to hold up in the majors. If he struggles more at AAA with those ratios, it would be a sign that he's not ready. I think it's tough to tell if a hitter like him is ready from AA stats, and frankly, I'm not confident in the Twins scouts right now.

[jokin]

'If Hicks starts the season in the majors, I think he could be very prone to strikeouts. '

 

One month in the minors won't fix that...

 

No it won't, but it's still just one more area he can work on without the glaring spotlight for 50-100 AAA ABs. Can't hurt him or the Twins in missing him in the lineup for a few games and any weaknesses to address will stay a work in progress in the majors

[DaveW]

Or he lights it up and takes his services elsewhere.....a year earlier than he would have otherwise.

 

Give me a break Snepp, the Twins certainly have their faults as an org, but keeping home grown talent that they WANT to keep around is not one of them, especially with current payroll/revenues etc.

 

The only one in recent memory was Santana, and that was more or less due to choosing to keep Nathan+Mauer+Morneau over him, and it ended up being the right choice.

 

*If Hicks lights it up, his last couple years of arb would be expensive anyways, *if he lights it up you do like every other team has been doing and you sign him long term after 2 or so good/great seasons in the majors.

[ThePuck]

Puck, you're not implying with the "whole seasoning" thing that the opposing view suggests th the club should wait until September call-up for more "seasoning", just to "be sure"? He made a major hurdle last year, the FO offseason moves indicates that they have confidence that Hicks is on the verge of making the jump to starting CFer. What's wrong with fine-tuning the move fiduciarilly- and hopefully working out some of the aforementioned kinds that Alex mentioned with a brief stint at Roc. and lowering the pressure threshold and spotlight of an opening day start?

 

no, I'm not implying that...if it reads that way, that's not what I meant.

 

I've heard people talk about seasoning...as in, just enough time for getting an extra year of control (which isn't much seasoning...so it's not really the reason, it's about the extra year...which is good business but not about his development)

 

Or seasoning, just enough time to avoid super two (again, less about his development than money).

 

Or just seasoning in general, as in just some kind of time in AAA.

 

I didn't mean a whole year. Not sure if I've heard anyone saying a whole year for him and waiting for a Sept callup.

[Alex]

Puck, you're not implying with the "whole seasoning" thing that the opposing view suggests th the club should wait until September call-up for more "seasoning", just to "be sure"? He made a major hurdle last year, the FO offseason moves indicates that they have confidence that Hicks is on the verge of making the jump to starting CFer. What's wrong with fine-tuning the move fiduciarilly- and hopefully working out some of the aforementioned kinds that Alex mentioned with a brief stint at Roc. and lowering the pressure threshold and spotlight of an opening day start?

 

Right. My concern would be his AA success doesn't translate against big league pitching, and I think you get a better sense if he's actually ready or might need another season in the minors.

 

I think it would be a shame if he's called up and after two months is on pace for 200 Ks and a .600 OPS and ends up getting sent down to AAA for the season anyway.

[ThePuck]

Right. My concern would be his AA success doesn't translate against big league pitching, and I think you get a better sense if he's actually ready or might need another season in the minors.

 

I think it would be a shame if he's called up and after two months is on pace for 200 Ks and a .600 OPS and ends up getting sent down to AAA for the season anyway.

 

If there's a guarantee that wouldn't happen after a bit of time in AAA (mathematical reasons aside of course), I'd be right there with you. Then again, what about the OBP?

 

Again, I've already said I have no issues, at all, with waiting till we have another year of control...

[snepp]

Give me a break Snepp, the Twins certainly have their faults as an org, but keeping home grown talent that they WANT to keep around is not one of them, especially with current payroll/revenues etc.

 

Two weeks is all it takes to ensure that it doesn't happen, an awfully small price to pay for a bit of additional security.

 

There's nothing stopping you from getting that extra year of control AND signing them later on if everything works out.

[ThePuck]

I think it's awesome we actually think so highly of a prospect we're even having this conversation.

 

And I like Arcia even more.

[DaveW]

Two weeks is all it takes to ensure that it doesn't happen, an awfully small price to pay for a bit of additional security.

 

There's nothing stopping you from getting that extra year of control AND signing them later on if everything works out.

 

It's more then two weeks because then you have to start worrying about super 2 status etc.

 

If the kid earns it, play him. If it costs us a few million extra down the road because he lights the world on fire then so be it, that is what we call a "good problem" to have.

 

Now if he was Bryce Harper/A Boras client, I would be signing a different tune.

[Alex]

I think it's awesome we actually think so highly of a prospect we're even having this conversation.

 

And I like Arcia even more.

 

Totally agree.

[snepp]

You can worry about super-2 if you want, but I sure as hell won't. The way the payroll is heading it won't make a lick of difference if he gets an additional year of arb.

[josecordoba]

I'm really a fan of Hicks. A career 9-12% walk rate plus plus defense in Center Field. Span last year was a 3.9 WAR player, Revere a 3.4 WAR Player. Hicks seems to be to be a pretty decent bet to be a 4 WAR player. This will make him a Top Ten Player in CF. This is assuming a .350 OBP. If Hicks has a .375 OBP- He's an All-Star. If Hicks could have a OBP near .400-He's a MVP Candidate. I realize this isn't the most likely outcome. But Hicks skill-set really has me excited.

 

I get the wisdom in keeping Hicks down in a probable 90 Loss Season. At the same time- other posters are right that he's the type of player (You shell out a big contract).

[jokin]

I think it's awesome we actually think so highly of a prospect we're even having this conversation.

 

And I like Arcia even more.

 

On the same page. As hard as it is to do, I just like to be careful and stay grounded in expectations and try to avoid Rohrschaching our "5-tool" expectations, hope and dreams into "deeming" the next Torii Hunter. I hope he exceeds Hunter's career, let's just not blow his potential by mishandling his call-up, developmentally and financially. For those who find my take as all-too-critical of the FO, this is just one (of many) cases where I applaud their patience. How many of the "experts" were out there, locally and nationally, only one year ago ready to cut the cord with Hicks? The Twins have some other high-talent, slow-adjusting legit prospects, currently enduring the minor league life and playing below lofty projections. Whether slowed by injuries, lack of confidence, etc., give the Twins FO credit for sticking a little longer with those currently laboring, but still possessed with higher-potential talent and/or skill sets. The "suspects" they stick with for far too long, are another story completely.

[Alex]

IThen again, what about the OBP?

 

.

 

Just for discussion purposes, that's the big question and hopefully something that can be maintiained.

 

Based on a scouting report last season that I read, minor league players that are patient can take a lot of walks because of the quality of pitching. The scout specifically said something about Hicks high number of Ks and high number of walks being because he took so many of both pitches, something that doesn't translate with as much success in the majors because of the quality of the pitching. I interpreted that to mean that while patient, he's not as discerning as you'd like to see.

[jokin]

I interpreted that to mean that while patient, he's not as discerning as you'd like to see.

 

That's the Rohrschaching part that needs to be avoided or you set yourself up for disappointment. Rather than set expectations, nothing less, than as high as Hunter, I think we all will be well-pleased with a flintier hybrid version of Span and Revere's best traits.

[freshinthehouse]

Two weeks is all it takes to ensure that it doesn't happen, an awfully small price to pay for a bit of additional security.

 

There's nothing stopping you from getting that extra year of control AND signing them later on if everything works out.

 

This makes sense. There is no reason not to wait if it is only 2-4 weeks. Getting an extra year of control is huge.

[drjim]

Batting .1000 today, Alex.

 

The Twins showed they really didn't know what they were doing from opening day last year. Anyone remember, the debate about Willingham in RF or LF and Doumit's adventures in outfielding, Parmelee never getting one single inning rep in the OF at AAA?

 

Yup, unheard of for marginal big league talent to struggle in their first full years in the bigs. Twins clearly don't know what they are doing when it comes to developing players.

 

I will agree the Twins flubbed the defense in OF, mostly because they catered too much to Willingham at the start and Morneau was able to play more 1B than they anticipated. This combined with Parmelee hitting worse than they hoped and Doumit probably hitting better (and staying healthy).

[jokin]

Yup, unheard of for marginal big league talent to struggle in their first full years in the bigs. Twins clearly don't know what they are doing when it comes to developing players.

 

I will agree the Twins flubbed the defense in OF, mostly because they catered too much to Willingham at the start and Morneau was able to play more 1B than they anticipated. This combined with Parmelee hitting worse than they hoped and Doumit probably hitting better (and staying healthy).

 

Huh? You ignored actually naming Dozier in your rant. What should have been a front-and-center concern and "fix" from the previous year's debacle with Nishi, slapped them yet again at the key spot on defense, and scrambling for yet 2 more outside placeholders, in-season. And it made no sense having "marginal talent", Parmelee, sitting on the bench for weeks on end at the start of the season, the Twins finally ended up admitting to these failures, in that both choices were ignominiously sent down after their all-too-predictably disastrous debuts trying to jump from AA to the majors.

 

You did admit to the other part of their cluelessness, although you glossed over their actual hope that Doumit could somehow play RF, as an abusrd, make-it-up-on-the-fly Plan B, after they wrongly assumed that Willingham would quietly acquiesce to the spot. And then, they had no spot for Parmelee because he hadn't had reps in the OF. And then, by default, out of favor Revere gets the gig, whose quite accidental showcasing in RF puts him in the nightly mix on ESPN and then even more quite accidentally, puts them in position to make the huge trade with Philadelphia.

 

I'll go with the Twins "don't know what they're doing" over "trust us, we have a plan" all day and every day.

[Badsmerf]

I thought we already did this

[Alex]

Yup, unheard of for marginal big league talent to struggle in their first full years in the bigs. Twins clearly don't know what they are doing when it comes to developing players.

 

I will agree the Twins flubbed the defense in OF, mostly because they catered too much to Willingham at the start and Morneau was able to play more 1B than they anticipated. This combined with Parmelee hitting worse than they hoped and Doumit probably hitting better (and staying healthy).

 

Yes, marginal big league talent will struggle, especially when pushed from the minors in AA in the case of Dozier (his short stint in AAA at the start that showed he wasn't really knocking the door down). Doesn't that seem like an even more valid criticism then?

 

Let's not forget that, especially in the case of Dozier, it was the Twins who were pushing and publicizing his readiness and thrust this "marginal" talent into a full time starting role. The fact that they sent him back down proved that they didn't expect this as "normal struggle" for even for first year players.

 

They advanced and moved him too quickly, and here's the thing, most stat people saw it coming (his success coming as one of the older players in the leagues in the minors) but those that trusted the Twins to evaluate him apologized away putting it to first year struggles. They didn't even call him back up for 40 man roster expansions.

 

The Twins are again hoping that a AA player makes the transition at a key position, and while I have more faith in Hicks for sure, it requires another leap of faith, not to mention they really didn't address the other position last year or this year.

 

Believe me, I would have been happy to say I was wrong in that case, and I'd be happy to be wrong here.

[darin617]

Why is everyone so against this? I get the whole service time issue but people need to relax, if Hicks really is the real deal it is highly likely the Twins will lock him up years before he ever hits free agency anyways.

 

If Hicks has a good spring training and earns the job you give him the job, if he struggles, then send him down for a bit, if he kicks ass then it's a great "problem" to have in regards to service time. I'd prefer the youngsters get as many at-bats this year against ML pitching so we can go into 2014 as strong as possible.

 

Hicks should start the season in Rochester to prove that he is ready for the next step. Hicks had a good year in 2012 but would benefit by not be rushed. Also, you need to prevent Super 2 status when you won't add any FA's to your team.

 

Joe Benson and Darin Mastroianni will share CF until Hicks can prove he deserves the promotion.

[snepp]

Also, you need to prevent Super 2 status when you won't add any FA's to your team.

 

What? That doesn't make any sense.