Top Twins Players Not in the Hall of Fame: Joe Nathan

[Cody Christie]

At the age-29, Joe Nathan was a failed shortstop and a failed starting pitcher that had already undergone Tommy John surgery. There was little indication that he would find success at the big-league level and even fewer odds of him starting down a path that has a chance to end in Cooperstown. Relief pitchers have seen their roles change in the modern game and that can help Nathan’s case.Case for Induction

Even with the late start to his career, Nathan pitched into his 40s while making six All-Star teams. He accumulated six seasons with an ERA under 2.00 with a career 9.5 SO/9. One of the biggest stats attached to Hall of Fame relievers is saves and he finished eighth in careers saves and there were seven times he ranked in the top five in saves. Nathan also ranks sixth all-time in win probability added among relief pitchers.

 

Jay Jaffe, the man that literally wrote the book on Cooperstown cases, has Nathan among the two best relief pitchers outside the Hall. While Jaffe usually turns to JAWS, a scoring system he created for HOF players, he examines relievers through a different lens. Jaffe places Nathan in his top-7 overall relief pitchers through his hybrid average of WAR, WPA, and situational or context-neutral wins (WPA/LI). That certainly puts him among the best relief arms in baseball history.

 

Case Against Induction

Nathan didn’t become a big-league regular until late into his 20s and this makes it hard to accumulate some of the statistical measures connected to other Hall of Fame relief pitchers. Currently, there are only eight relief pitchers that have been inducted, the fewest of any Cooperstown group. This is going to make it quite the uphill climb for Nathan to have a chance at immortality.

 

Billy Wagner is a player currently on the Hall of Fame ballot to keep an eye on when it comes Nathan’s chances. Wagner was only on 10.5% of the ballots during his first year of eligibility back in 2017. That number was all the way up to 31.7% in 2020 as he is slowly gaining traction. Nathan has a slight edge in WPA compared to Wagner, while Wagner was able to accumulate more career WAR. If Wagner can gain election, it can help Nathan’s chances when he becomes eligible in 2022.

 

Prediction

Nathan is going to have a tough road to Cooperstown even though he is among the best relief pitchers in baseball history. Voters might begin to recognize the importance of relievers especially with their increased usage in the modern game. He is going to need some help to stay on the ballot, but he has a chance to slowly build a case like what has happened with Wagner in recent years.

 

What’s your prediction for when Nathan appears on the Hall of Fame ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[mikelink45]

For me he the Twins HOF is his highest honor.  I do not see him going to the big HOF and I have trouble with RP in the hall.  I know it is changing, but under the current situation I see problems for SP to get into the HOF.  

[jmlease1]

Twitchy was a heck of a reliever, but I think his biggest problem for the Hall is the fact that he overlapped with Mariano and while I do think he reached that level during his peak, Mariano's peak was much much longer. Add that in with the fact that voters are still struggling with how to evaluate relievers as part of the Hall, I think someone with a high peak, but relatively short one as an elite reliever is going to have trouble.

 

If Nathan had transitioned to relief in his early 20's instead of at age 28 I think his case would be much stronger.

 

Billy Wagner is a heck of a reliever and a great comp for Nathan. Elite relievers who never got signature post-season moments, long runs, or titles and so aren't getting much consideration. I gotta say...I'd take either Wagner or Nathan over Lee Smith, who is in the Hall.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Interesting case for Nathan. I had no idea he compared so favorably big picture. It should be tough to get into the HOF as a reliever. I agree with keeping the number of RPs in the Hall to a minimum.

[Shaitan]

A great pitcher.

 

But no rings, which matters at his position.