Article: Pickin' Berrios

[nicksaviking]

Anyone think Berrios pitches in A+ this coming summer?

 

Nope, the Twins make nearly all HS players stay a full year at low A. Arcia got to skip out after half a season but he was a hitter. Berrios will get no higher than CR this year.

[mnfanforlife]

Nope, the Twins make nearly all HS players stay a full year at low A. Arcia got to skip out after half a season but he was a hitter. Berrios will get no higher than CR this year.

 

I don't like it, but I agree that is the wisest course of action for Berrios. We need pitching NOW in Minnesota, but its not worth risking guys like J.O. before they are ready for a big-league workload

[kab21]

prospects need time. you don't rush a prospect because of need. Plus the Twins have Gibson, May and Meyer in AA/AAA.

[mnfanforlife]

prospects need time. you don't rush a prospect because of need. Plus the Twins have Gibson, May and Meyer in AA/AAA.

 

And a ton of college arms that are not even on the Top 20 list by MLB.com

[mnfanforlife]

How about a future rotation of:

 

1. Meyer

2. May

3. Berrios

4. Gibson

5. Boyd/Baxendale/Hendriks/Mata/ whoever is good

[nicksaviking]

prospects need time. you don't rush a prospect because of need. Plus the Twins have Gibson, May and Meyer in AA/AAA.

 

You don't want to push a guy who's not ready, but if he is proving himself, a quick advancement is not necessarily rushing a young player. Had the Twins been fortunate enough to have gotten their hands on Felix Hernandez or Clayton Kershaw, would those players still have reached the majors at the young ages of 19 and 20 years old? No one can say, but i suspect not.

[mnfanforlife]

You don't want to push a guy who's not ready, but if he is proving himself, a quick advancement is not necessarily rushing a young player. Had the Twins been fortunate enough to have gotten their hands on Felix Hernandez or Clayton Kershaw, would those players still have reached the majors at the young ages of 19 and 20 years old? No one can say, but i suspect not.

 

There is absolutely NO WAY the Twins EVER start a 19-yr-old at ANY position in the big-leagues. Mauer was a rare exception at 20. No one will ever get to Minnesota that quickly ever again.

[kab21]

You don't want to push a guy who's not ready, but if he is proving himself, a quick advancement is not necessarily rushing a young player. Had the Twins been fortunate enough to have gotten their hands on Felix Hernandez or Clayton Kershaw, would those players still have reached the majors at the young ages of 19 and 20 years old? No one can say, but i suspect not.

The thing is that Berrrios isn't Kershaw or Felix. If he's dominating at the all star break then he should be promoted. I am expecting him to be good but not great next year.

[ThePuck]

The thing is that Berrrios isn't Kershaw or Felix. If he's dominating at the all star break then he should be promoted. I am expecting him to be good but not great next year.

 

No Berrios isn't Kershaw or Felix, but when those two were that young, did everyone know they'd turn out exactly how they did? I wonder who people were saying those two weren't when they were that young...

 

Berrios' numbers in rookie ball were better than Kershaw's...arguably better than King Felix's...at least stat-line wise. We could really have something here.

[mnfanforlife]

Great point! And yes, we could really have something special in Berrios

[kab21]

I think you need to reign in your expectations a little.

[righty8383]

I think you need to reign in your expectations a little.

 

Perhaps, but when an 18 year old dominates a notorious hitters league, it is worth getting excited about.

[kab21]

I agree that it is worth getting excited about but it's a small sample. He was a supplemental pick, he is not ranked in top 100 lists and most scouting reports say he has #3 upside. Kershaw was the #7 pick, ranked about #25 overall and had #1 upside. Berrios is a very good prospect but I am going to wait untilhe has at least played full season ball to suggest that he will dominate and get promoted to FT Myers.

[mnfanforlife]

I agree that it is worth getting excited about but it's a small sample. He was a supplemental pick, he is not ranked in top 100 lists and most scouting reports say he has #3 upside. Kershaw was the #7 pick, ranked about #25 overall and had #1 upside. Berrios is a very good prospect but I am going to wait untilhe has at least played full season ball to suggest that he will dominate and get promoted to FT Myers.

 

 

For sure kab21, I think we all agree he should not be rushed. But let's detach ourselves from the #3 starter projections, and become enchanted with the mystery of what Berrios could become. We should never pigeon-hole a prospect with dominant numbers, and say ,"well, he is only gonna be a 2nd tier guy in the bigs. So we can reign in our expectations and not expect anything great from him."

 

I suggest we imagine what is possible, rather than downplay whatever summit a player may reach.

 

Its a lot more fun anyway. And with all these teenagers in the Twins system, there are a whole lot of summits that will be reached far in to future seasons.

[ThePuck]

John Sickels scouting report:

 

Minor League Prospect Note: Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins

 

One of my favorite pitchers from the 2012 draft is Jose Berrios (sometimes referred to as J.O. Berrios), a high school pitcher from Puerto Rico drafted in the supplemental first round by the Minnesota Twins. Berrios has been outstanding in pro ball. He threw five shutout innings for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League on Friday, allowing two hits, walking nobody, while fanning 11.

 

 

Overall, in 25.2 innings split between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League, Berrios has allowed two runs (0.70 ERA), just 10 hits, only four walks, while fanning 43. That's right, 43/4 K/BB in 25.2 innings with 10 hits allowed.

 

Standing 6-0, 190, the 18-year-old Berrios is showing a mid-90s fastball, and both his breaking ball and changeup are exceeding his pre-draft scouting reports. The breaking ball is variously described as either a hard curve or a slider, depending on which source you're talking to, but either way it is effective. His changeup is advanced for his age. He also tinkered with a cutter and a slow curve as an amateur. Although he doesn't have much physical projection remaining in terms of size, he is athletic, repeats his mechanics well, and has mature mound presence.

 

 

The Twins used him in relief at first in the Gulf Coast League to get him acclimated to pro ball, but he's starting now and has the arsenal to stick there. His control has been very sharp, and obviously his performance has been outstanding so far. I like him a lot and he could end up being one of the best pitchers in the draft class.

[ThePuck]

From The Scouting Book

 

Drafted as a teenager from Puerto Rico to open 2012's compensation round, Jose Orlando Berrios is a smallish righthander with good arm strength from a compact but strong frame. His short delivery bodes well for mechanical soundness, with a fastball that can pop at 96mph and a breaking ball that looks like a real plus offering. He'll slow-cook in Minnesota after signing, but if he stays healthy, it won't be long before he's seen as a TOP-FLIGHT PHENOM in a system good at maximizing pitcher value.

[mnfanforlife]

He'll slow-cook in Minnesota after signing, but if he stays healthy, it won't be long before he's seen as a TOP-FLIGHT PHENOM in a system good at maximizing pitcher value.

 

Thats right, get out your crock pots. We are cooking up an ACE.

 

Great info about Jose's progression!

[ThePuck]

Thats right, get out your crock pots. We are cooking up an ACE.

 

Great info about Jose's progression!

 

Heck, if he ends up being a decent #2, or a very good #3 (and I don't mean decent #2 or very good #3 based on current Twins value), it's still very good. I don't see any reason not to be high on him.

[kab21]

Heck, if he ends up being a decent #2, or a very good #3 (and I don't mean decent #2 or very good #3 based on current Twins value), it's still very good. I don't see any reason not to be high on him.

Who is not hi

[kab21]

Heck, if he ends up being a decent #2, or a very good #3 (and I don't mean decent #2 or very good #3 based on current Twins value), it's still very good. I don't see any reason not to be high on him.

Who is not high on him?

[mnfanforlife]

Yeah, I think we all agree a good #3 starter would be a miracle for the Twins rotation. Shoot, if Meyer, May, and Berrios can develop into good #2's, we got something tasty in that slow cooker. Might have to make a trip to Iowa this August, assuming Berrios will still be in low A.

[THE DFC]

No Berrios isn't Kershaw or Felix, but when those two were that young, did everyone know they'd turn out exactly how they did? I wonder who people were saying those two weren't when they were that young...

 

Berrios' numbers in rookie ball were better than Kershaw's...arguably better than King Felix's...at least stat-line wise. We could really have something here.

 

Thank you. It's absolutely absurd to see the definitive statements in this thread--he's not Kershaw, he won't get past CR, he won't have another astounding season.

 

The likelihood based on the rarity of elite pitching prospects and mind-blowing performances by very young pitchers coupled with Berrios's previous scouting report make the most probable answer that he'll have a good but semi-volatile season in A- ball. But, I think the notion that if he comes out dominating anywhere near the level that he did last season that there's still zero chance he gets to A+ ball or is a truly elite prospect is absurd. Sure, this scenario isn't likely, but given his performance last season, it's intriguing to not have to rule it out. I'm excited for Berrios mainly because he's put himself in a position to ponder that hypothetical scenario. That could bode very well for his long term future.

[mnfanforlife]

I see Berrios being somewhat like Linecum....in that he is not a large-bodied pitcher, but can still throw gas with movement. His off-speed stuff is nasty (like Lincecum), and all we need is a chance to see him in a legit minor league.

[mnfanforlife]

We will see Berrios pitch for P.R. in the WBC!!!!!

[Badsmerf]

Some of you guys need to be realistic about your expectations for him. He is advanced for his age, which why he dominated. The big question is if his stuff is going to play at higher levels. It's hard to really judge a pitcher after his first season of pro ball, especially young ones. Low-A should start to give him more challenges, but I don't think he'll have much trouble there and get promoted to the FSL halfway through the season. Hitters in this league still struggle with plate discipline and pitch recognition. Berrios has very good control and 3 very good pitches. With his make-up I think he wont get pushed until AA when hitters start to take mistake pitches over the fence.

[kab21]

John Sickels scouting report:

 

Minor League Prospect Note: Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins

 

One of my favorite pitchers from the 2012 draft is Jose Berrios (sometimes referred to as J.O. Berrios), a high school pitcher from Puerto Rico drafted in the supplemental first round by the Minnesota Twins. Berrios has been outstanding in pro ball. He threw five shutout innings for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League on Friday, allowing two hits, walking nobody, while fanning 11.

 

 

Overall, in 25.2 innings split between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League, Berrios has allowed two runs (0.70 ERA), just 10 hits, only four walks, while fanning 43. That's right, 43/4 K/BB in 25.2 innings with 10 hits allowed.

 

Standing 6-0, 190, the 18-year-old Berrios is showing a mid-90s fastball, and both his breaking ball and changeup are exceeding his pre-draft scouting reports. The breaking ball is variously described as either a hard curve or a slider, depending on which source you're talking to, but either way it is effective. His changeup is advanced for his age. He also tinkered with a cutter and a slow curve as an amateur. Although he doesn't have much physical projection remaining in terms of size, he is athletic, repeats his mechanics well, and has mature mound presence.

 

 

The Twins used him in relief at first in the Gulf Coast League to get him acclimated to pro ball, but he's starting now and has the arsenal to stick there. His control has been very sharp, and obviously his performance has been outstanding so far. I like him a lot and he could end up being one of the best pitchers in the draft class.

 

Berrios is one of Sickels favorites yet he didn't even include him in his top 50 pitching prospects. He was also asked about the bolded comment recently and he almost sounded surprised that he had earlier said that. He clarified that comment by toning it down but I can't find it because it's one random comment in a random post from the last couple of months.

 

The important thing when evaluating prospects is to stay grounded in your expectations. I really, really like Berrios and I'm very bullish on him. I even think that it's possible that he dominates the minors. But even if he does you need to consider how many elite prospects that have dominated AA/AAA with awesome scouting reports have struggled to become even #3's in the majors. Right now we're talking about someone that is ranked outside of the top 100 prospects and has thrown a few innings in rookie ball.

[mnfanforlife]

Some of you guys need to be realistic about your expectations for him. He is advanced for his age, which why he dominated. The big question is if his stuff is going to play at higher levels. It's hard to really judge a pitcher after his first season of pro ball, especially young ones. Low-A should start to give him more challenges, but I don't think he'll have much trouble there and get promoted to the FSL halfway through the season. Hitters in this league still struggle with plate discipline and pitch recognition. Berrios has very good control and 3 very good pitches. With his make-up I think he wont get pushed until AA when hitters start to take mistake pitches over the fence.

 

So, you think Berrios will fizzle out in Double-A?

[johnnydakota]

Pedro Martinez was only 5ft 11 inches , hope berrois at an even 6 foot is a better pitcher =)

[mnfanforlife]

Oh man, if Berrios even approaches the level of PJ Martinez then we have an ace

[kab21]

So, you think Berrios will fizzle out in Double-A?

 

You took what he said as fizzle out? There is a massive difference between being challenged and fizzling out.

 

Basically in this thread you are turning any critical comment about Berrios into the equivalent of 'he sucks'. You've based your super high optimism on 30 innings of rk ball and selectively reading scouting reports. He absolutely dominated those 30 innings but at the end of the day rk ball stats come close to meaningless since there is just a bunch of HS/college non prospects there.