Braves interested in Josh Willingham

[biggentleben]

I would take Hanson, or Delgado, or Minor along with Teheran for Willingham and either Span or Revere

 

Hanson and Teheran, possibly, maybe on Delgado/Teheran, and no on Minor/Teheran on likelihood of those happening. And it'd certainly be Span over Revere.

 

If we can get two pitchers back, I would definitely approve trading Span and Willingham. It would make a lot of sense financially for the Braves.

 

I like Hanson but he has horrible mechanics and has lost close to 4 MPH from his fastball in the last 2 years. I think he's worth the gamble but there's a lot of risk there. Braves fans are worried about him being the next Jurrjens. I'd prefer Teheran over Delgado because of the higher ceiling but I would take either one as the other pitcher.

 

To replace Willingham's power you can sign Jonny Gomes .262/.377/.491 this past season in Oakland. He has severe splits but you can have Gomes, Parmelee, Morneau and Doumit for 1B/LF/DH/Bench bat. Move Revere to CF and sign a 1 year RF: Melky Cabrera or Grady Sizemore, Nate McLouth, Nate Schierholtz platooned with Mastroianni.

 

Good core of young pitchers: Teheran, Gibson, Diamond, Hanson, Hendriks

 

On Hanson - I've not heard Braves fans on any of the team forums I frequent compare him at all to Jurrjens. Hanson's mechanics are what they are, no argument there, but the MPH off his fastball were as much an organizational focus as any issue with Hanson. He has had some very sideways quotes on the method of working in a hard two-seamer rather than his four-seamer. Brandon Beachy bought into the program hard, and he had phenomenal success. His barely-used arm succumbed to the rampant use of the last couple of years. Hanson could mostly use a change of scenery, not because he's a bad apple, but because he's not pitching to his strength. I've felt through the whole year that attempting to create sink in his motion slowed his arm action. I don't have the technology to prove it, but I believe that 1. he lost velocity because of the new pitch strategy, and 2. he had a tip when he threw his four-seamer, which often rode up high in the zone. Basically, following the Bauer thread, it's a very similar case with Hanson. I think he's still got a ton of value, but you can't sell a pitcher with an ERA like he carried and sell him as an ace.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I brought this up a couple months ago & I stick to it.....Dan Uggla (as well as an obvious pitcher back) takes care of the RH hitter.

I am NOT scared off by his 3yr/39m left...esp with Morneau's deal coming off. This team has MLB's weakest middle infield and has for the past decade & refuses to address it.

Uggla was an all star last yr but had his worst statistical year.....86runs(2nd worse) 29doubles, 48XBH (worst ever) 19HR 78RBI(both worst ever) 94BB.....these numbers would make him the best hitting middle infielder since Knoblauch. He had an .803OPS on the road as his struggles were in ATL (.656OPS) & mostly June/July. Strong other 4 months.

He's been criticized for his defense (rightly so) but was excellent last season as ATL had the best team defense in baseball.

We've seen with Willy what can happen when hitters vary from the 'Twins Way' & let them swing for the fences

I am available for criticism on this but absolutely would personally love to get him

 

That's a great idea gg. Uggla+a young pitcher

[biggentleben]

I cannot see at all that Delgado/Minor/Medlen would go for anything short of a CF replacement.

 

DOB has been jonesing for Willingham for a long time, and he is a HORRIBLE writer at inserting his views as team views, so unless someone other than DOB put this out with a direct Wren quote, I'd not believe it if I were a Twins fan. Wren seems much, much more concerned about CF right now and will fill that first going by all his interviews this offseason.

 

Really good insight on David O'Brien, Ben. Thanks. And it's great that you are able to respond to some of these questions.

 

It's worth noting on similar threads. It might pay when there is a thread involving another team that we reach out to any fans/writers of that team with a link to give their thoughts.

 

No problem! And thanks!

 

I'm honestly not a huge fan of the two major Braves beat writers, O'Brien with the Atlanta Journal Constitution and Mark Bowden through mlb.com. DOB tends to be way too much sunshine and abhorrence for statistics. Bowden is anti-everything. I'd prefer a more fair and balanced view on the team.

[JP3700]

 

On Hanson - I've not heard Braves fans on any of the team forums I frequent compare him at all to Jurrjens. Hanson's mechanics are what they are, no argument there, but the MPH off his fastball were as much an organizational focus as any issue with Hanson. He has had some very sideways quotes on the method of working in a hard two-seamer rather than his four-seamer. Brandon Beachy bought into the program hard, and he had phenomenal success. His barely-used arm succumbed to the rampant use of the last couple of years. Hanson could mostly use a change of scenery, not because he's a bad apple, but because he's not pitching to his strength. I've felt through the whole year that attempting to create sink in his motion slowed his arm action. I don't have the technology to prove it, but I believe that 1. he lost velocity because of the new pitch strategy, and 2. he had a tip when he threw his four-seamer, which often rode up high in the zone. Basically, following the Bauer thread, it's a very similar case with Hanson. I think he's still got a ton of value, but you can't sell a pitcher with an ERA like he carried and sell him as an ace.

 

Here's a Link to an article mostly about Hanson.

[biggentleben]

 

On Hanson - I've not heard Braves fans on any of the team forums I frequent compare him at all to Jurrjens. Hanson's mechanics are what they are, no argument there, but the MPH off his fastball were as much an organizational focus as any issue with Hanson. He has had some very sideways quotes on the method of working in a hard two-seamer rather than his four-seamer. Brandon Beachy bought into the program hard, and he had phenomenal success. His barely-used arm succumbed to the rampant use of the last couple of years. Hanson could mostly use a change of scenery, not because he's a bad apple, but because he's not pitching to his strength. I've felt through the whole year that attempting to create sink in his motion slowed his arm action. I don't have the technology to prove it, but I believe that 1. he lost velocity because of the new pitch strategy, and 2. he had a tip when he threw his four-seamer, which often rode up high in the zone. Basically, following the Bauer thread, it's a very similar case with Hanson. I think he's still got a ton of value, but you can't sell a pitcher with an ERA like he carried and sell him as an ace.

 

Here's a Link to an article mostly about Hanson.

 

Yep, I know gondeee's viewpoints quite well. He's always been very anti-Hanson and very alarmist about him, suggesting in 2009 that JA Happ was by far the better long term pitcher. He's is VERY against Hanson's motion, so he weighs things that way. But even in that article, he didn't directly compare it to Jurrjens - which it isn't at all. Jurrjens never had velocity. He just forgot how to hit the strike zone. He said it could end up a similar situation - a high paid player who isn't good enough to be in the rotation anymore, much like Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and Jair Jurrjens have been in the last 3 years. For the Braves, that could simply be because they have better rotation options, frankly, not because of anything wrong with Hanson.

[ericchri]

Just for fun, read the comments to this thread from the Braves fan perspective. If Twins fans and Braves fans were allowed to make trades for the teams...

 

http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/11/07/braves-might-trade-pitching-for-lineup-needs/

[gil4]

"The Twins are looking for a RH replacement bat in return."

 

 

I'm torn on this:

 

 

Pro:

 

 

1. Selling high

 

2. He's getting old

 

3. He has an injury history

 

4. He's a defensive liability (not in the D-Young class, but not great)

 

 

 

Con:

 

1. He was healthy last year

2. When he's healthy, the man can hit

3. I don't trust TR to get value on a straight challenge trade

4. Why trade a RH bat who came here voluntarily for a RH bat that didn't?

5. Is Atlanta still a hitter's park? I know Target Field evened out somewhat last year. I'd be concerned about overrating their hitters vs. ours because of park factors.

 

I'd rather get a pitcher, unless the Braves surprise us with the offer.

[PseudoSABR]

Here's the tweet, Parker misrepresents the part about needing a RH bat in return a bit.

 

#Braves would also have interest in LF Willingham, but #Twins at this point seem unlikely to trade, would need to replace RH bat in lineup

 

 

[Big City]

Yes to Medlan, Minor, or Hanson. Yes, to Delgado if they included another pitcher prospect like Gilmartin or Graham. I think Ryan's just leveraging Span more by demanding a RH bat in return so, since the Braves can't provide it they'll have to settle on Span. This is a deal that needs to get done though, even if we do trade Willingham. What about signing Cody Ross to replace Willingham?

[Parker Hageman]

Here's the tweet, Parker misrepresents the part about needing a RH bat in return a bit.

 

Fixed.

[biggentleben]

Just for fun, read the comments to this thread from the Braves fan perspective. If Twins fans and Braves fans were allowed to make trades for the teams...

 

http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/11/07/braves-might-trade-pitching-for-lineup-needs/

 

AJC comments make STrib comments look very intelligent.

[biggentleben]

5. Is Atlanta still a hitter's park? I know Target Field evened out somewhat last year. I'd be concerned about overrating their hitters vs. ours because of park factors.

 

Turner Field is considered the most neutral park in baseball over long-term results.

 

There's not a hitter involved here. The Braves would be moving pitching for Willingham, then the Twins would need to get another RH bat. That's what the tweet said.

[biggentleben]

Yes to Medlan, Minor, or Hanson. Yes, to Delgado if they included another pitcher prospect like Gilmartin or Graham. I think Ryan's just leveraging Span more by demanding a RH bat in return so, since the Braves can't provide it they'll have to settle on Span. This is a deal that needs to get done though, even if we do trade Willingham. What about signing Cody Ross to replace Willingham?

 

Wow. You really think they'd include one of the top 3-5 prospects in their system along with their most proven rookie arm for Willingham? Not so much.

[JP3700]

 

Here's a Link to an article mostly about Hanson.

 

Yep, I know gondeee's viewpoints quite well. He's always been very anti-Hanson and very alarmist about him, suggesting in 2009 that JA Happ was by far the better long term pitcher. He's is VERY against Hanson's motion, so he weighs things that way. But even in that article, he didn't directly compare it to Jurrjens - which it isn't at all. Jurrjens never had velocity. He just forgot how to hit the strike zone. He said it could end up a similar situation - a high paid player who isn't good enough to be in the rotation anymore, much like Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and Jair Jurrjens have been in the last 3 years. For the Braves, that could simply be because they have better rotation options, frankly, not because of anything wrong with Hanson.

 

Jurrjens had plenty of velocity. He use to be 91-93, topping out at 96. Now he's 88-90 topping out at 92. Here's his PitchFx page.

 

There is a pretty solid comparison there considering the velocity drops and injuries. Jurrjens' knee and Hanson's shoulder. I wouldn't mind gambling on Hanson, but there's high risk there.

[biggentleben]

 

Here's a Link to an article mostly about Hanson.

 

Yep, I know gondeee's viewpoints quite well. He's always been very anti-Hanson and very alarmist about him, suggesting in 2009 that JA Happ was by far the better long term pitcher. He's is VERY against Hanson's motion, so he weighs things that way. But even in that article, he didn't directly compare it to Jurrjens - which it isn't at all. Jurrjens never had velocity. He just forgot how to hit the strike zone. He said it could end up a similar situation - a high paid player who isn't good enough to be in the rotation anymore, much like Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and Jair Jurrjens have been in the last 3 years. For the Braves, that could simply be because they have better rotation options, frankly, not because of anything wrong with Hanson.

 

Jurrjens had plenty of velocity. He use to be 91-93, topping out at 96. Now he's 88-90 topping out at 92. Here's his PitchFx page.

 

There is a pretty solid comparison there considering the velocity drops and injuries. Jurrjens' knee and Hanson's shoulder. I wouldn't mind gambling on Hanson, but there's high risk there.

 

Jurrjens was still quite effective at lower velocity along as he was precise with his command. He was a mid 6 k/9 guy, so his stuff was never swing and miss. Hanson has relied on swing and miss, so it's a very different thing.

[JP3700]

Biggentleben, as a Braves fan what do you think of this trade..

 

Denard Span, Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton and $2 million cash for Randall Delgado, Tommy Hanson, Nick Ahmed and David Hale

 

Prado in LF, Span in CF

Doumit catches til McCann is back and can play LF with moving Prado to 3B

Francisco at 3B vs. RH and Carroll vs. LH + Utility IF

Burton as the late inning RH to Kimbrel.

Leaves plenty of money to sign a Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum type pitcher and extensions for Prado and Heyward.

 

Seem pretty fair? Just fun to think about.

[Willihammer]

The Braves also have Simmons backing up Pastornicky at SS. That guy can flash some leather.

[biggentleben]

The Braves also have Simmons backing up Pastornicky at SS. That guy can flash some leather.

 

Um, no, Simmons is the starter and nearly the most untouchable player on the Braves.

[biggentleben]

Biggentleben, as a Braves fan what do you think of this trade..

 

Denard Span, Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton and $2 million cash for Randall Delgado, Tommy Hanson, Nick Ahmed and David Hale

 

Prado in LF, Span in CF

Doumit catches til McCann is back and can play LF with moving Prado to 3B

Francisco at 3B vs. RH and Carroll vs. LH + Utility IF

Burton as the late inning RH to Kimbrel.

Leaves plenty of money to sign a Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum type pitcher and extensions for Prado and Heyward.

 

Seem pretty fair? Just fun to think about.

 

Only thing is Burton doesn't carry much value with a full bullpen already, at least not enough to include two prospects. If they were going to do something with a guy like Carroll, they'd just use Janish or Pastornicky. Value-wise, it'd be even, but it doesn't match up with the Braves' needs.

[PseudoSABR]

Biggentleben, as a Braves fan what do you think of this trade..

 

Denard Span, Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton and $2 million cash for Randall Delgado, Tommy Hanson, Nick Ahmed and David Hale

 

Prado in LF, Span in CF

Doumit catches til McCann is back and can play LF with moving Prado to 3B

Francisco at 3B vs. RH and Carroll vs. LH + Utility IF

Burton as the late inning RH to Kimbrel.

Leaves plenty of money to sign a Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum type pitcher and extensions for Prado and Heyward.

 

Seem pretty fair? Just fun to think about.

Seems pretty awful for the Braves. They get Span and crap.

[TheLeviathan]

The only thing that deal is missing is Brian Duensing to really cement it in the "I'm just making this stupid suggestion for laughs" category.

[johnnydakota]

I brought this up a couple months ago & I stick to it.....Dan Uggla (as well as an obvious pitcher back) takes care of the RH hitter.

I am NOT scared off by his 3yr/39m left...esp with Morneau's deal coming off. This team has MLB's weakest middle infield and has for the past decade & refuses to address it.

Uggla was an all star last yr but had his worst statistical year.....86runs(2nd worse) 29doubles, 48XBH (worst ever) 19HR 78RBI(both worst ever) 94BB.....these numbers would make him the best hitting middle infielder since Knoblauch. He had an .803OPS on the road as his struggles were in ATL (.656OPS) & mostly June/July. Strong other 4 months.

He's been criticized for his defense (rightly so) but was excellent last season as ATL had the best team defense in baseball.

We've seen with Willy what can happen when hitters vary from the 'Twins Way' & let them swing for the fences

I am available for criticism on this but absolutely would personally love to get him

well uggla and florimon just might make cy young look like nick blackburn

[biggentleben]

Biggentleben, as a Braves fan what do you think of this trade..

 

Denard Span, Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton and $2 million cash for Randall Delgado, Tommy Hanson, Nick Ahmed and David Hale

 

Prado in LF, Span in CF

Doumit catches til McCann is back and can play LF with moving Prado to 3B

Francisco at 3B vs. RH and Carroll vs. LH + Utility IF

Burton as the late inning RH to Kimbrel.

Leaves plenty of money to sign a Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum type pitcher and extensions for Prado and Heyward.

 

Seem pretty fair? Just fun to think about.

Seems pretty awful for the Braves. They get Span and crap.

 

I was trying to be nice

[biggentleben]

From MLBTR today:

 

The Braves are looking at center field options to replace Michael Bourn and the Twins' Denard Span "is likely high on the list of potential trade target," writes David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Braves and Twins match up well as trade partners, as Minnesota is desperate for pitching and Atlanta is one of the few teams with available young arms. The Braves "haven’t entirely given up" on re-signing Bourn, but the club is unlikely to match the demands from Bourn and agent Scott Boras.

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/nl-east-notes-span-hamilton-wright-upton.html#dMfMDqeCqLOO1dbk.99

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Biggentleben, as a Braves fan what do you think of this trade..

 

Denard Span, Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton and $2 million cash for Randall Delgado, Tommy Hanson, Nick Ahmed and David Hale

 

Prado in LF, Span in CF

Doumit catches til McCann is back and can play LF with moving Prado to 3B

Francisco at 3B vs. RH and Carroll vs. LH + Utility IF

Burton as the late inning RH to Kimbrel.

Leaves plenty of money to sign a Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum type pitcher and extensions for Prado and Heyward.

 

Seem pretty fair? Just fun to think about.

 

So we give them a bunch a guys we signed last offseason and Span? Seems a little crooked and the Braves would hang up quick.

[JP3700]

I'm not going to argue with any of the rude replies to a question where I specifically asked one person, but just know that there was a thought process to my question.

 

-Denard Span is obvious so I'll skip why he was involved.

 

-Brian McCann had shoulder surgery and will miss significant time. The Braves have a need at C and are looking at David Ross (their backup from 2012) who will cost similar to what Doumit is making. On top of this McCann is a free agent after the season and the Braves might not be able to afford him considering they have to pay Prado, Heyward and Freeman. Doumit would be a decent stop gap for Christian Bethancourt as Doumit is signed through 2014.

 

-The Braves have Juan Francisco to play 3B who has 20+ HR power and hits RH pitching well, but is brutal against LH pitching. Carroll had an .839 OPS against LH pitching in 2012. The $2 million added makes him only cost $1.75 and there were already reports that the Braves were looking for a backup middle infielder.

 

-The Braves have a strong bullpen, but their late inning guys are O'Flaherty and Venters who are both lefties. Durbin was their righty and he's a FA so Burton would not only replace him, but be an upgrade.

 

As for the return..

 

-Delgado is the centerpiece

 

-Hanson's value has significantly dropped with his drop in velocity and poor 2012. Sure the Braves would be selling low, but they may be wary of investing $4 million on a guy who could fall off the map like Jurrjens did.. Obviously I could be wrong on them selling low, but if you read the article I linked above there are opinions that Hanson could only get a "promising bullpen arm" now.

 

-Ahmed is blocked by Simmons and isn't that highly regarded anyway. Similar to Brian Dozier: no tools that stand out but does a lot of things right.

 

-Hale is a borderline top 20 prospect in their organization. he's 25 and hasn't pitched an inning past AA, so instead of asking for Sprull or Graham I added him.

 

Like I mentioned, it was just fun to ask. But instead of just reading names and assuming it's a bad trade, do some research and realize there was a thought process.. Thanks.

[DaveW]

Biggentleben, as a Braves fan what do you think of this trade..

 

Denard Span, Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton and $2 million cash for Randall Delgado, Tommy Hanson, Nick Ahmed and David Hale

 

Prado in LF, Span in CF

Doumit catches til McCann is back and can play LF with moving Prado to 3B

Francisco at 3B vs. RH and Carroll vs. LH + Utility IF

Burton as the late inning RH to Kimbrel.

Leaves plenty of money to sign a Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum type pitcher and extensions for Prado and Heyward.

 

Seem pretty fair? Just fun to think about.

 

Only thing is Burton doesn't carry much value with a full bullpen already, at least not enough to include two prospects. If they were going to do something with a guy like Carroll, they'd just use Janish or Pastornicky. Value-wise, it'd be even, but it doesn't match up with the Braves' needs.

 

Is that TRULY even Value wise? Burton and Carroll have like zero trade value to be honest, and Doumit, while a nice player is much better suited for the AL these days as he would not be an every day guy in the NL.

[biggentleben]

-Hanson's value has significantly dropped with his drop in velocity and poor 2012. Sure the Braves would be selling low, but they may be wary of investing $4 million on a guy who could fall off the map like Jurrjens did.. Obviously I could be wrong on them selling low, but if you read the article I linked above there are opinions that Hanson could only get a "promising bullpen arm" now.

 

-Ahmed is blocked by Simmons and isn't that highly regarded anyway. Similar to Brian Dozier: no tools that stand out but does a lot of things right.

 

Those were the two that made it a no-go in my book actually. Like I said earlier, consider the source on the article you posted. The Braves have actually refused him media credentials in the past, despite having one of the 2-3 longest running Braves blogs/forums on the internet. Multiple blogs that have started up in the last two years have received those same credentials. The Braves still value Hanson fairly high, and all reports from inside and outside the organization is that there is a lot of high-level interest in him.

 

Ahmed is probably not going to achieve MLB status until he's 25ish, but he's someone that the organization regards very highly. According to rumors, he was part of the reason for backing out of one deadline deal this year. He's what would seem like a perfect future utility guy, and it's highly doubtful that the Braves will consider moving him until he fails a level. He made a big jump (2 levels) this year and held his own. I'd wager he'll go up step by step from here, but he's very highly regarded by the organization, so he's going to be tough to get involved in a deal.

 

I guess from the upside/downside for both players, I've thought Hanson/Span makes way too much sense for both teams for it not to get done.

[biggentleben]

Biggentleben, as a Braves fan what do you think of this trade..

 

Denard Span, Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton and $2 million cash for Randall Delgado, Tommy Hanson, Nick Ahmed and David Hale

 

Prado in LF, Span in CF

Doumit catches til McCann is back and can play LF with moving Prado to 3B

Francisco at 3B vs. RH and Carroll vs. LH + Utility IF

Burton as the late inning RH to Kimbrel.

Leaves plenty of money to sign a Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum type pitcher and extensions for Prado and Heyward.

 

Seem pretty fair? Just fun to think about.

 

Only thing is Burton doesn't carry much value with a full bullpen already, at least not enough to include two prospects. If they were going to do something with a guy like Carroll, they'd just use Janish or Pastornicky. Value-wise, it'd be even, but it doesn't match up with the Braves' needs.

 

Is that TRULY even Value wise? Burton and Carroll have like zero trade value to be honest, and Doumit, while a nice player is much better suited for the AL these days as he would not be an every day guy in the NL.

 

Player-wise, no, but you have to realize the tight finances that the Braves in and how important cash would be to them. That said, all four guys the Twins would give up have proven to some level their performance expectation at the MLB level. Hanson is the only one who has enough track record for that on the Braves side. I just don't see it working for the reasons I mentioned just a post ago.

[JP3700]

-Hanson's value has significantly dropped with his drop in velocity and poor 2012. Sure the Braves would be selling low, but they may be wary of investing $4 million on a guy who could fall off the map like Jurrjens did.. Obviously I could be wrong on them selling low, but if you read the article I linked above there are opinions that Hanson could only get a "promising bullpen arm" now.

 

-Ahmed is blocked by Simmons and isn't that highly regarded anyway. Similar to Brian Dozier: no tools that stand out but does a lot of things right.

 

Those were the two that made it a no-go in my book actually. Like I said earlier, consider the source on the article you posted. The Braves have actually refused him media credentials in the past, despite having one of the 2-3 longest running Braves blogs/forums on the internet. Multiple blogs that have started up in the last two years have received those same credentials. The Braves still value Hanson fairly high, and all reports from inside and outside the organization is that there is a lot of high-level interest in him.

 

Ahmed is probably not going to achieve MLB status until he's 25ish, but he's someone that the organization regards very highly. According to rumors, he was part of the reason for backing out of one deadline deal this year. He's what would seem like a perfect future utility guy, and it's highly doubtful that the Braves will consider moving him until he fails a level. He made a big jump (2 levels) this year and held his own. I'd wager he'll go up step by step from here, but he's very highly regarded by the organization, so he's going to be tough to get involved in a deal.

 

I guess from the upside/downside for both players, I've thought Hanson/Span makes way too much sense for both teams for it not to get done.

 

Fair enough, appreciate the response. That's why I specifically asked you. You obviously follow the Braves, so you'd have a better grasp of what they'd be willing to do. I just didn't appreciate the posts that made it seem like a completely unreasonable trade without thought. Especially from people I didn't ask, nor have a grasp of Atlanta's needs as a team.