Jhoulys Chacín, Matt Wisler, and Diminishing Returns on Sliders

[Matthew Trueblood]

The best reason to believe in and take note of the Twins' latest pitching addition is the trait he shares with their first one of the winter: a heavy (and potentially damaging) reliance on sliders.For the second time in three winters, the Twins have signed a Venezuelan right-hander in his early 30s, with an impressive MLB track record but nightmarish recent results, to a late-winter minor-league deal. I don’t expect Jhoulys Chacín to be with the organization much longer in 2020 than Aníbal Sánchez was in 2018, because the Twins already have a number of potentially solid starting pitching options. However, one thing about Chacín should stand out for Twins fans: his slider usage. Like the first pitching acquisition of Minnesota’s offseason (Matt Wisler), this final one seems to reflect the Twins’ confidence that a good, heavily-used slider is a solid foundation on which to build success.

 

Chacín came up with the Rockies in 2009, and had impressive seasons with them. From 2014-16, however, he ran into a lot of trouble, especially with injuries. In that three-year span, he had a 4.81 ERA, in just 234 total innings. He was worth -0.4 WARP, according to Baseball Prospectus. Between March 2015 and the end of 2016, he belonged to five different teams.

 

His career on life support, Chacín signed with the pitching-starved Padres for $1.75 million for 2017—but found something there that (briefly, anyway) changed the course of his career again. After never having thrown his slider even a quarter of the time, he threw it 34 percent of the time that season, stayed healthy, topped 180 innings, had a 3.89 ERA, and racked up 2.2 WARP. That earned him his two-year deal with the Brewers prior to 2018.

 

Here’s where his slider usage has gone since.

 

Download attachment: Brooksbaseball-Chart.jpeg

In 2018, Chacín had a season fully in line with his early brilliance in Colorado. Using his slider as his primary pitch, he befuddled and frustrated opposing batters. They couldn’t get him to throw anything straight, and that left them hacking away at stuff they had no chance to drive. He made 35 starts during the season and another three in October, as the Brewers pitched him virtually every time he could be said to be on full rest. Their strategy was to get him out of the game before opponents could see him a third time, thereby giving them a chance to find the range on his slider and square it up.

 

Then, in 2019: disaster. As Chacín leaned more and more heavily on the slider, batters started taking its measure. His whiff rate (as a percentage of all sliders thrown) tumbled to a career-low 11.5 percent, not because it flattened out or he stopped commanding it, but because batters started sitting on it. They still didn’t exactly obliterate the pitch; they did most of their damage when he gave in and threw a sinker. However, the attempt to push his slider usage up to 50 percent while still starting was a failure. He found the point of diminishing returns for that pitch, in his particular repertoire, in the role he was asked to fill.

 

That point is higher, of course, if you’re a short-burst reliever. Opponents have far fewer chances to see and adjust to the pitch, and they can’t make you the focal point of their preparation for any particular game. Matt Wisler threw his slider 45 percent of the time even in 2018, but that wasn’t anywhere near the red line for slider use, because (although he began his big-league career in the Braves’ rotation) he’s a pure reliever. In 2019, though, he really pushed the envelope.

 

Download attachment: Brooksbaseball-Chart (1).jpeg

 

It backfired, though in a different way than Chacín’s strategy did. (That shouldn’t shock us; they’re very different pitchers and pitches.) Wisler still induced whiffs on a very impressive 20.9 percent of all his sliders, which is why the Twins liked him enough to claim him on waivers and slot him into the bullpen plans. By Baseball Prospectus’s advanced metrics (where 100 is league-average and lower is better), he had an 85 DRA-, a 93 cFIP, and was worth an impressive 0.7 WARP in just 51 innings last year. His ERA, however, was 5.61, because batters cracked 10 home runs against him in that relatively small body of work.

 

The problem wasn’t that Wisler’s slider lacked bite, or that batters began gearing up and swinging out of their shoes against him. Nor was it (solely) the aeroball that victimized him. The problem was simple: most pitchers’ sliders are prone to occasional slips, and some of those slips lead to balls in dirt, and some lead to balls left fat in the center of the zone. By throwing so many sliders, Wisler opened himself up to a few too many of those slips, and too many of them landed in hittable areas.

 

Pitch mix is always a delicate balance. Every pitcher must calibrate and tinker with their pitch interactions in their own, unique way. However, there are certain thresholds that should raise one’s eyebrows, and they can make for easy adjustments, especially for teams with ample confidence in their pitching infrastructure. That last modifier definitely describes the Twins, which is probably why they were happy to take their chances with Wisler and Chacín. If Wes Johnson can help them each hone their pitch balance the way he did with multiple Twins last season, these small investments could pay big dividends.

 

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[DocBauer]

There is 1 major difference between Chacin and Wisler, however. Despite a few poor and injury affected season's, Chacin has actually produced some solid seasons and OK career numbers while the younger Wisler remains an example of unfulfilled expectation.

 

There are similarities between both of them, as well as vast differences. What they both have in common, IMO, is a need for some kind of successful FB. Whether you throw 90 or 100, you need some kind of FB to make everything work. Sneaky, heavy, tailing, rising, you still need some decent form of the pitch. That would seem to be Johnson's #1 priority/opportunity with both of these guys.

[Nash Walker]

Really great writing as usual Matt. Love Wisler as I love Sergio for prowess against RHB. White Sox, Indians, Yanks, Astros are all right-handed and the current construction of the bullpen is favorable imo.

[highlander]

You can NEVER have too many arms!

[Cody Pirkl]

 

There is 1 major difference between Chacin and Wisler, however. Despite a few poor and injury affected season's, Chacin has actually produced some solid seasons and OK career numbers while the younger Wisler remains an example of unfulfilled expectation. There are similarities between both of them, as well as vast differences. What they both have in common, IMO, is a need for some kind of successful FB. Whether you throw 90 or 100, you need some kind of FB to make everything work. Sneaky, heavy, tailing, rising, you still need some decent form of the pitch. That would seem to be Johnson's #1 priority/opportunity with both of these guys.

That is true, but Wisler has a lot more of the statcast metrics that the analytically inclined front office would be interested in. Even between last year where Wisler was had a 5.61 ERA 4.23 FIP, his statcast numbers looked much better than Chacin's career year in 2018 with his 3.50 ERA and 4.03 FIP. With his Ks and being limited in exposure as a reliever, he could be one small tweak away from a monster season with the raw skills he has. Chacin however kind of is what he is. It'll be interesting to see how they work with both though, I'll be watching their pitch mixes closely.

[Cody Pirkl]

This is a fantastic write up. I've been interested in diminishing returns on those sliders, especially on Wisler, but had no idea where to even start looking. I wasn't even aware of Chacin's issue with overusing it. I'll be very interested to watch both of these guys and how Wes Johnson tweaks their pitching style.

[Parker Hageman]

Then, in 2019: disaster. As Chacín leaned more and more heavily on the slider, batters started taking its measure. His whiff rate (as a percentage of all sliders thrown) tumbled to a career-low 11.5 percent, not because it flattened out or he stopped commanding it, but because batters started sitting on it.

 

 

This is a really good profile on slider usage.

 

The one thing I would add is that in my cursory research, Chacin did stop commanding his slider in 2019. When you look at the pitch on BrooksBaseball, you'll see a slightly different spin axis and less vertical and horizontal movement. It did not flatten out, but it wasn't as sharp as the previous two seasons.

 

Mechanics were a big issue for him and when you go look at video of his sliders on Baseball Savant, you'll see him back up a lot of sliders and general misfire. When you look at his release points, you will see that it was a little more haphazard in 2019, a product of not being able to find consistency in his mechanics.

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1224078079422877702

 

The other interesting thing about Chacin is that while he did throw his slider more, it was used more in hitters and even counts. This may have been because he lost faith in his fastballs (which he had good reason), either way, he really ramped his use early in the count. Typically when you see some increases in a secondary pitch it happens when pitchers are ahead and are trying to put a hitter away. In those early parts of the count, hitters took or fouled off the slider at a high percentage. 

 

I think Chacin had a good sounding board in Derek Johnson his first year with the Brewers and lost that when he went to Cincinnati. It's possible that Wes Johnson will be able to help him regain that consistency. One of the things I expect Wes and the Twins might address is shortening Chacin's stride length. 

[Linus]

Or as Kirby used to say “Bad breaking balls are a gift from God”