Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/25): Pérez Impresses, Twins Beat Detroit for Series Win

[SwainZag]

 

I'd pump the brakes on that. He is currently a King of BABip. Batting Average on Balls In Play normally stabilizes around .300. Jake built his fine 2018 on a BABip of .363, and his major league numbers in 2019 are built on an even more outlandish BABip of .400.

 

Now, I (as a player) would not achieve .300 - BABip is meaningful only for a decent level of skill. One could speculate that a high BABip represents skill itself. Let me dig into that.

 

Jake has a career MLB BABip of .374 across 457 plate appearances. Do you know who has had a BABIp that high across an entire career (3000+ PA)? Just Ty Cobb. Not Babe Ruth, not Ted Williams, not... nobody.

 

Reduce the threshold to just the 457 PA that Jake has. Who now makes the cut? Just 2 more, besides Jake and Ty. Luminaries named Jorge Alfaro and Austin Slater, both of whom are 26 and currently playing, along with Cave. Alfaro's carving out a decent career as a young catcher (Philly, now Miami after a big trade). Slater's trying to reach "decent" with the Giants.

 

Seems a good bet that the BABip of these three contemporary players, early in their careers, will descend below .374 just like every other major league player not named Tyrus Raymond. These guys are extreme outliers. A high BABip of .374 doesn't look like a skill.

 

Which is the long way of saying, no, I'm far from convinced the bat is for real. With normal luck of balls falling in, he's Jason Tyner.

 

You are very right on your BABIP look at things, his BABIP since the break is overt .600 which is outrageous.  But you went too far comparing him to Tyner who had a SLG for his career of .323.

[jorgenswest]

I think there is enough here to believe he is a good fourth OF option.

 

I don’t know enough behind the math of BABIP and quality of contact.

 

I have seen that the BABIP on hard contact last year was .448 vs. .158 on soft contact.

 

I know that Cave has had hard contact 53.8% (2018 league 35.3%) and soft contact 3.8% (league average 18.1%)

 

I don’t know what it means. Clearly lots more hard contact and lots less soft contact is going to drive a BABIP way up. His high BABIP is explained by the quality of his contact (not luck).

 

So...

 

Is quality of contact luck or a skill? If it is a skill how much data is needed to be meaningful?

 

Who wants to take a chance it is luck and let Cave move to another team this winter?

[prouster]

Oakland fans might be saying something similar about THEIR starting left fielder Robbie Grossman.

I’m guessing you’re joking around, but this doesn’t make Cave a good outfielder.

[ashbury]

But you went too far comparing him to Tyner who had a SLG for his career of .323.

Gratifying that someone went to the trouble of reading to the end.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think there is enough here to believe he is a good fourth OF option.

 

I don’t know enough behind the math of BABIP and quality of contact.

 

I have seen that the BABIP on hard contact last year was .448 vs. .158 on soft contact.

 

I know that Cave has had hard contact 53.8% (2018 league 35.3%) and soft contact 3.8% (league average 18.1%)

 

I don’t know what it means. Clearly lots more hard contact and lots less soft contact is going to drive a BABIP way up. His high BABIP is explained by the quality of his contact (not luck).

 

So...

 

Is quality of contact luck or a skill? If it is a skill how much data is needed to be meaningful?

 

Who wants to take a chance it is luck and let Cave move to another team this winter?

It doesn't have to be luck to be unsustainable.

 

Regardless of what is driving his high babip, he's not Ty Cobb, it's going to regress.

[jorgenswest]

It doesn't have to be luck to be unsustainable.

 

Regardless of what is driving his high babip, he's not Ty Cobb, it's going to regress.

I don’t doubt that but how far will it regress. He is also early in his career and it is reasonable that he will improve his hitting skill.

 

I also am not ready to buy that it doesn’t matter what is driving his BABIP. If Cave has the skill of creating higher quality contact than normal his BABIP will be higher. In his case it is not simply a case where his balls in play have simply evaded the fielders due to luck of placement. They are missing fielders because the harder contact gives them less time to get to the ball. Is that hard contact a skill?

 

I think he is a good fourth OF. I wouldn’t give him away this winter.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don’t doubt that but how far will it regress. He is also early in his career and it is reasonable that he will improve his hitting skill.

 

I also am not ready to buy that it doesn’t matter what is driving his BABIP. If Cave has the skill of creating higher quality contact than normal his BABIP will be higher. In his case it is not simply a case where his balls in play have simply evaded the fielders due to luck of placement. They are missing fielders because the harder contact gives them less time to get to the ball. Is that hard contact a skill?

 

I think he is a good fourth OF. I wouldn’t give him away this winter.

When I said it didn't matter what was driving his babip, i meant as it related to the fact that it will regress.

 

You're right that skill can contribute to a higher than average babip, but nobody (except Ty Cobb) has enough skill to maintain his current babip.

 

Regardless of what's driving it, it's going to regress.

How much of it is skill will determine if it regresses to .330 or .300, but either way it will regress.