Twins will seek 'affordable pitchers'

[Brock Beauchamp]

Terry Ryan will make a 3yr 30m offer to Mark Buehrle when he says he wont consider anything under 4 yrs. They'll offer 5yrs 100m to Johan Santana when he says he wont take less than 7 yrs. Same with Torri Hunter...offering 3yrs when he wanted 5

MN is about making just low enough of an offer to be in the arguement, but not really get serious with the player. Funny that they think that fans actuallly buy any of that

 

Mark Buerhle is going to be paid $19m as a 36 year old in 2015. Santana has turned mediocre for the Mets while making ~$23m a season.

 

The Twins put out the offers but thankfully, they were smart enough to keep those offers within reason. Pitching contracts that go over $50m in total rarely (almost never) work out for the team that "wins" the bidding.

[ThePuck]

better not to have quality pitching at all than to take a chance on spending what the market will bare for quality pitching I suppose...you know, just in case the pitcher doesn't work out. Cause, I'm sorry, they don't draft and develop quality pitching and getting a quality pitcher in trade is harder and harder without quality pieces to do it...especially when you overvalue the few quality trade pieces you do have...

[old nurse]

Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

 

Ryan got pitchers like Joe Mays and Carlos Silva. Do not forget Santana was aquired outside of the organization. Lohse was origionally from elswhere. That is off the top of my head.

[ThePuck]

Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

 

Ryan got pitchers like Joe Mays and Carlos Silva. Do not forget Santana was aquired outside of the organization. Lohse was origionally from elswhere. That is off the top of my head.

 

Joe Mays had one good season out of six with us. Silva pitched one very good year with us, two okay ones and a really bad one. Santana wasn't a FA signing or a trade, he was a rule 5 pick up. And Lohse wasn't that good with us either. He also failed to sign Santana early enough to avoid Smith having to trade him after the '07 season...

[Mike Sixel]

The puck has it correct.....

[kab21]

Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

 

Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.

[beckmt]

Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

 

Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.

It would be nice to operate with an unlimited checkbook, the Yankess did that for many years. Most FA pitchers do not work out well. We still need a bridge to the next set of pitchers coming up. This will be both FA and trades. TR just has to get it right. That is not easy.

[SweetOne69]

Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

 

Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.

 

Teams can go from losing seasons to make the playoffs in one season. Both the Twins and Braves did it in 1991 and the Twins almost did it again in 2001. The Twins went from 74 wins to 95 wins from 1990 and 1991 and from 69 wins to 85 wins from 2000-2001 (finishing 2nd in the division). The Braves went from 64 wins to 94 wins in 1991.

[Mike Sixel]

Signing one player for Huge money is probably a bad idea. Signing 2 legit starting pitchers for 12 to 15 million a year for 4 or 5 years, that is the market rate. I will ask again, if you do not want to do that, how is the team competitive in the next three years?

[kab21]

Signing one player for Huge money is probably a bad idea. Signing 2 legit starting pitchers for 12 to 15 million a year for 4 or 5 years, that is the market rate. I will ask again, if you do not want to do that, how is the team competitive in the next three years?

 

I'll ask you how devastating it would be to have 23M locked up in Mauer and 24-30M locked up in what ended up being two mediocre pitchers. History says that you probably aren't even getting two legit starting pitchers for 12-15M/yr.

 

Here is a list of FA starters since the 2006 offseason that fit your criteria (>3 yrs, 12+M/yr). There are 2 studs (well paid), 2 too early to tell, 2 alright pitchers (Dempster and Lilly) and a long list of brutal mistakes. Your proposal could be flushing 120-150M down the toilet and significantly extend any rebuilding that the Twins need to do. I do not like the prospect of being bad next year but you rebuild through the farm and supplement with FA. Spending recklessly in FA leads to becoming the Mets and Cubs and that is a very accurate comparison. They loaded their teams with expensive declining veterans and they sucked.

 

Buehrle 4/58

Wilson 5/75

Lee 5/120

lackey 5/82.5

Ollie Perez 3/36

Lowe 4/60

CC fort knox

Burnett 5/82.5

Dempster 4/52

Silva 4/48

Zito - 7/126

Suppan 4/42

Lilly 4/40

Meche 5/55

Schmidt - 3/47

[kab21]

 

Teams can go from losing seasons to make the playoffs in one season. Both the Twins and Braves did it in 1991 and the Twins almost did it again in 2001. The Twins went from 74 wins to 95 wins from 1990 and 1991 and from 69 wins to 85 wins from 2000-2001 (finishing 2nd in the division). The Braves went from 64 wins to 94 wins in 1991.

 

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

[Mike Sixel]

They have what, one guy in the minors who looks legit as a starter for the next two or three years? If you do not sign any free agents, where does the pitching come from? They will not trade their top prospects, we know that. They refused to trade Willingham at his peak value. So, if you will not get starters this year or next, what is the plan?

[ThePuck]

 

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

 

and our minor league system is hurting, especially in the pitching department

[kab21]

They have what, one guy in the minors who looks legit as a starter for the next two or three years? If you do not sign any free agents, where does the pitching come from? They will not trade their top prospects, we know that. They refused to trade Willingham at his peak value. So, if you will not get starters this year or next, what is the plan?

 

you say things like won't and refused based on one season. They have always had a pretty good rotation and decent depth in the minors so your historical trends are kind of worthless. Before last offseason they hadn't signed a FA to a 20+M deal either. The Garza/Young trade was also a first for the org.

 

I've already told you what I would do. Try to trade for Shields (willy or Span), sign the best they can get for 3/30ish and bring back Baker on a 1 yr deal with 2 generous options (10Mish). that's the making of a solid rotation without exposing the Twins to significant long term risk. Your plan of signing TWO FA starters for 4/48-5/75 looks awful when you look at the utter crap that comparable FA starters have done.

 

It sucks to lose but you don't fix teams in FA.

[ThePuck]

you say things like won't and refused based on one season. They have always had a pretty good rotation and decent depth in the minors so your historical trends are kind of worthless. Before last offseason they hadn't signed a FA to a 20+M deal either. The Garza/Young trade was also a first for the org.

 

I've already told you what I would do. Try to trade for Shields (willy or Span), sign the best they can get for 3/30ish and bring back Baker on a 1 yr deal with 2 generous options (10Mish). that's the making of a solid rotation without exposing the Twins to significant long term risk. Your plan of signing TWO FA starters for 4/48-5/75 looks awful when you look at the utter crap that comparable FA starters have done.

 

It sucks to lose but you don't fix teams in FA.

 

I think his point of not trading players at their peak value is valid. We didn't do it with Hunter, we haven't, as of yet, done it with Willingham. We also didn't do it with Cuddyer...and that was a must do that we failed to do.

 

If we're going to build a pitching staff, hard decisions need to be made....and the way the new collective bargaining agreement is worded, it may force us to do that.

 

As far as our rotation goes, it's been okay once in the last 4 seasons, bad the other other three. This isn't a one year thing, it's been broken for awhile

[Mike Sixel]

If hicks and arcia replace span and Willingham in the next year or two, you free up another 12 million in salary. Why not spend that on pitching? Free agency cannot fix all your woes, agreed. Waiting 4 years for this system to be fixed cannot either.

 

I still do mot understand the long term risk point. You will have minimum wage guys at two outfield positions, and probably first base.....where will all the money go if not to free agents?

[kab21]

As far as our rotation goes, it's been okay once in the last 4 seasons, bad the other other three. This isn't a one year thing, it's been broken for awhile

 

The rotation has been very solid except for one season until the disaster happened this year. you can say that it was obvious that the rotation looked weak going into 2011 but Liriano was coming off of a borderline great season and they had what should have been 3 solid #3's (plus Duensing and that crappy guy) behind him.

'03 - 20th

'04 - 4th

'05 - 9th

'06 - 9th

'07 - 10th

'08 - 15th - this is the first season w/o Johan

'09 - 26th

'10 - 16th - things looked pretty good going into 2011 unless you use hindsight

[Mike Sixel]

Where is that minor league depth other than the outfield? When is the next pitcher ready after Gibson? Middle infielder? Third baseman? Catcher? This is not a one year trend.

[kab21]

If hicks and arcia replace span and Willingham in the next year or two, you free up another 12 million in salary. Why not spend that on pitching? Free agency cannot fix all your woes, agreed. Waiting 4 years for this system to be fixed cannot either.

 

I still do mot understand the long term risk point. You will have minimum wage guys at two outfield positions, and probably first base.....where will all the money go if not to free agents?

 

Review this if you don't understand the long term risk. the risk isn't that you have 4.00 ERA pitchers earning too much money. The risk (pretty likely) is that you have multiple Blackburn level pitchers earning 12-15M/yr for a long time.

 

Buehrle 4/58

Wilson 5/75

Lee 5/120

lackey 5/82.5

Ollie Perez 3/36

Lowe 4/60

CC fort knox

Burnett 5/82.5

Dempster 4/52

Silva 4/48

Zito - 7/126

Suppan 4/42

Lilly 4/40

Meche 5/55

Schmidt - 3/47

[Mike Sixel]

What are those stats?

[Mike Sixel]

I understand the risk, but I see no other path. You rarely win by only doing safe things. Baker will not be ready for several months into the season. If signing one free agent is a good idea, why is signing two a had idea?

[ThePuck]

kab21: You forgot 2011 and 2012. Your original comment was he was basing things on one year, yet you don't post the last two.

 

I guess it depends on how far back you wanna go. I went back 4 years...the most recent times...trying to show it's been poor 3 of the last 4 seasons, not just one. That change was noticeably needed before just this last season. One could have looked at 2010 objectively and said a couple guys had career seasons...unusual season for them...like Pavano and Liriano for instance, and decided it was best not to put too much credence into those seasons, expecting the same results.

 

As far as '04-'07 seasons go, without Johan (one guy) where would that rotation have ranked? Truth is, we haven't done well in pitching for awhile...neither in drafting or developing, and it's shown...and not just for one season

[Chance]

last season i thought it would have been a good idea to pick up Bedard, this season I feel the same way.

I feel that an affordable "twins quality" rotation would be

Edwin Jackson, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, Erik Bedard, Liam Hendriks.

right, left, right, left, right.

This isnt that expensive at all, you still have Deduno, De Vries, Baker (when healthy), Vasquez, and others as backups.

 

For the offense I think you could trade Span and a few prospects for Starlin Castro to help our infield, Cubs want to trade him and he will eventually mature he is a guy the twins can and should target.

[kab21]

What are those stats?

Years and dollars.

[ThePuck]

For the offense I think you could trade Span and a few prospects for Starlin Castro to help our infield, Cubs want to trade him and he will eventually mature he is a guy the twins can and should target.

 

In my opinion, if we are trading Span, Revere, Willingham or Morneau, we have to get pitching.

 

And can you imagine Gardy having the biggest error machine in baseball on his team? Gardy would destroy him. I'm also not sure we have the right people to develop him into being the type of player his potential would suggest he is?

[kab21]

kab21: You forgot 2011 and 2012. Your original comment was he was basing things on one year, yet you don't post the last two.

 

I guess it depends on how far back you wanna go. I went back 4 years...the most recent times...trying to show it's been poor 3 of the last 4 seasons, not just one. That change was noticeably needed before just this last season. One could have looked at 2010 objectively and said a couple guys had career seasons...unusual season for them...like Pavano and Liriano for instance, and decided it was best not to put too much credence into those seasons, expecting the same results.

 

As far as '04-'07 seasons go, without Johan (one guy) where would that rotation have ranked? Truth is, we haven't done well in pitching for awhile...neither in drafting or developing, and it's shown...and not just for one season

 

The rotation is awful now. I didn't include the two most recent seasons because the Twins have had exactly one offseason to react to 2011 and I'm not going to create any trends based on one offseason. Before that the rotation was arguably solid. '09 got ugly but '10 rebounded well and I already showed that 2011 should have been decent with Liriano, Baker, Pavano, Slowey, Duensing and blackburn (only one season removed from back to back 4.00 ERA seasons) with Gibson in AAA.

 

Do you think that the Twins should have been trading OF'ers or prospects for pitchers that offseason because that is your complaint?

[ThePuck]

Do you think that the Twins should have been trading OF'ers or prospects for pitchers that offseason because that is your complaint?

 

No, the trading players at their peak value comment and the pitching problems comment are two separate issues, though one could say that if the team traded guys at their peak value (like they should have done with Cuddyer in the 2011 trading deadline) that pitching certainly should have been targeted.

 

My point about the pitching is that I don't think 2011 was the start of a trend...that's where I respectfully disagree with you. I think it started when Santana left. Certainly if your goal is to go deep into the playoffs for a W Series championship in mind, our pitching staff has lacked the pitching needed to win a short series against the best offenses in baseball for awhile now...even as improved as it was in 2010. If your goal is to be competitive in a weak division, I can see where hoping the 2010 Pavano and Liriano's 2010 was going to continue on to next season and keep us competitive, but not improving the rotation, and it staying the same as it was in 2010, certainly wasn't going to push us to the next level. IMO.

 

One could also say for a team that preaches to it's pitchers pitch to contact forcing ground balls, trading Hardy and not keeping Hudson (or replacing him with a solid glove) wasn't the best idea...

[johnnydakota]

Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.

Affordable from Terry Ryan (at least to me....based on the teams history) means players who'll play for a 1 year deal, maybe 2 under the right circumstances

Marcum/Jackson are gonna want a 3 yr deal minumum.....Twins have NEVER signed a FA pitcher with that many years & have NEVER traded for a pitcher with that many years remaining (not counting pre-FA pitchers).

They are the cheapest team in baseball that has a 90m+ payroll.....this will continue this year.

As good as FA went last offseason, nobody got a big deal. They went cheap, but it worked out for the most part

 

worked out for the most part?96 losses, and once again the cancer curly ryan rebuilding this team.....

[johnnydakota]

penny pinching might:

 

- make this an 85 loss team

- be the last nail in the Gardy and Ryan coffins...

 

i think the reason paul molitor wont be with the team as a coach this year is because he might wispher into jipppy pohlads ear....

hey boss the 3 stooges dont have a clue , hire real baseball people

[Chance]

.

In my opinion, if we are trading Span, Revere, Willingham or Morneau, we have to get pitching.

 

And can you imagine Gardy having the biggest error machine in baseball on his team? Gardy would destroy him. I'm also not sure we have the right people to develop him into being the type of player his potential would suggest he is?

 

 

I would agree with that but realistically with Jackson and Bedard as FA I don't see us getting anyone better in a trade so I wouldn't want us to try. Castro has had a lot of errors but most have been mental/indifference, that can be corrected especially when dealing with a 22 yr old. Right now the Cubs don't want to deal with him, they would like a center fielder and some prospects to rebuild. I wouldn't mind trading Span and some others to strengthen our lineup. The bottom line is Castro's problems can be fix and right now I believe you can get him for a steal. .283 ave with 15 hr is very desirable from the SS position. We had over 10 errors at SS this season and Castro had (without looking I believe 19?) with at least 9 of them coming on mental mistakes that should get eliminated as he reaches 24-25 years old and has a coach who can hopefully get the most out of him.

 

Its not a lock that these decisions would yield a high payoff but the reward is worth the risk in my opinion.