Article: Buyer Beware: Avoiding a Chris Archer Trade

[h2oface]

 

Hasn't Houston traded about a 10 of their higher end prospects the last few years?

Verlander, Cole, Pressley, Liriano, McCann

 

Higher end prospects for Pressly? Not in my book, or how they rate in our farm, or how they have performed. Mediocre.

[h2oface]

 

Per Baseball Reference Realmuto WAR 2.5, Garver 3.0, Castro .6, Astudillo -.1

My math says Realmuto and Garver better than Garver, Castro and Turtle

 

 

Castro is also outplaying Realmuto by a considerable margin.

 

Hmmmmm. And Castro couldn't even catch easy pitches the other day against Oakland, and he is supposed to be a glove guy. I don't know if WAR is the final authority, or if the above is correct as I am using a third party's homework, but I am not of the opinion that Castro is outplaying Realmuto.... by even a slight margin. Infact, it looks like Realmuto is outplaying Castro by the considerable margin.

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by h2oface

[SomeGuy]

It's shaping up to be a really bad trade deadline for buying teams. The starting pitching market is extremely bare. There will be like a dozen teams fighting for the available relievers. Expect to get fleeced on a Stroman deal. Not that he will be anywhere near as awful as Archer but you will give up the farm to get what is essentially an effective groundball/pitch to contact guy (not a true ace).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's shaping up to be a really bad trade deadline for buying teams. The starting pitching market is extremely bare. There will be like a dozen teams fighting for the available relievers. Expect to get fleeced on a Stroman deal. Not that he will be anywhere near as awful as Archer but you will give up the farm to get what is essentially an effective groundball/pitch to contact guy (not a true ace).

I agree more with the first half of your comment. I’m sure there are pitchers out there this deadline with unseen value, beyond the big names. But even those might cost more than a lot of posters here are comfortable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hmmmmm. And Castro couldn't even catch easy pitches the other day against Oakland, and he is supposed to be a glove guy. I don't know if WAR is the final authority, or if the above is correct as I am using a third party's homework, but I am not of the opinion that Castro is outplaying Realmuto.... by even a slight margin. Infact, it looks like Realmuto is outplaying Castro by the considerable margin.

B-Ref catcher WAR is close to useless.

 

FanGraphs tries to incorporate the unique nature of catchers into WAR and Castro has slightly more than half the WAR of Realmuto in less than half as many plate appearances (ie. Castro is slightly outplaying him, albeit much closer than I expected).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

None of that has played out yet, and it's tough to argue the Twins would be worse off with Realmuto.

 

 

 

Realmuto has been out performed this season by Garver, Castro, and Cron. We'd be worse off offensively with him this season (though probably a bit better defensively), and there's zero question about that... and I say that as a guy that wanted him. If he's here, Garver is probably spending a lot of time in AAA, except when Cron is on the DL. 

 

Right now, I have to conclude that NOT making that trade was the right thing... It may change next season when Castro is gone and Garver hits the DL for a lengthy period of time... but right now, this team would probably have a couple more losses of Realmuto was our starting catcher. 

[alarp33]

 

Realmuto has been out performed this season by Garver, Castro, and Cron. We'd be worse off offensively with him this season (though probably a bit better defensively), and there's zero question about that... and I say that as a guy that wanted him. If he's here, Garver is probably spending a lot of time in AAA, except when Cron is on the DL. 

 

Right now, I have to conclude that NOT making that trade was the right thing... It may change next season when Castro is gone and Garver hits the DL for a lengthy period of time... but right now, this team would probably have a couple more losses of Realmuto was our starting catcher. 

 

The Phillies gave the Marlins a major league catcher in that trade as well. It's reasonable to assume along with Lewis or Kiriloff, that Garver would've needed to be included in that trade.