What Does a Byron Buxton Trade Look Like?

[gil4]

 

You forgot Revere too.  But he's playing in AAA right now.   

 

However, in a vacuum, all 4 of those trades were understandable.  

 

Gomez trade netted JJ Hardy.  

 

Span got the Twins Alex Meyer, a project to be fair, but a good prospect for a farm system desperate for pitching.  

 

Hicks trade got the JRM, who was coming off a decent season with the Yankees, but to be fair was a small sample size in 67 games.

 

In the Revere trade, that got them Trevor May and Worley.   May is decent when healthy.   Worley on the other hand is nausea inducing.

 

Having said all that, trading 4 MLB starting center fielders in a 4-5 year time frame is not good practice. 

Your mention of the Hardy/Gomez trade reminds me of one that was not understandable - Hardy/Hoey. Still not forgiven.

[TheLeviathan]

 

its a heck of a lot easier to fire and replace a manager than it is to replace a whole 40 man roster.

Looking at the results of the last 3 years and the contract situation/payroll for next year... it might be both in 19

 

It's one thing to say "we have to change something, sorry Molly" and literally have threads where we blame him for not playing a catcher that can't catch, Buxton for not hitting, and probably global warming too.  (Trying to catch up on the forum.  I'm sure it's there though)

 

As a board, there is almost no credibility in our criticism of him.  He deserves some, but good lord.

 

The issues with Buxton are not easily blamed on the manager.  Especially since, as of last September, Molitor would have been getting the credit for it then.  But I don't recall many threads giving him credit.

[caninatl04]

This. I think we're going to start seeing more 'Fire Paul' articles in the near future.

Why fire Molitor? Maybe the hitting coach?

[howieramone2]

 

I'm perpetually miffed at how poor our scouts evaluate our own guys, let alone other team's or amateur. Or the FO is too stubborn to admit or too gutless to move on.

The Rays traded Delmon, similarly rated prospect to Buxton. He had some good years but never came close to the hype. They recognized this early and got near max return value.

This is why I hate the "call them up and see what we got" pleas. why can't we know 90% what's there before then? As others have noted, failing reduces trade value a ton. Buxton is arb eligible now. If he figures stuff out he won't be cheap and controllable. His speed and defense will slide incrementally the rest of his career.

We should probably trade or extend. Buxton already refused an extension once, apparently. So maybe a Dozier deal buying out arbitration.

Since 2012, all of our drafts look solid with 2015 maybe an exception. You may recall our 2nd pick came up with problems on his physical and didn't sign. We also gave up a high pick to sign Santana. Year in and year out we have been one of the highest rated teams in IFA.

 

Our scouting is amongst the best baseball, on a consistent basis. No one is stubborn and no one is gutless. Do the research.

[howieramone2]

 

I'm not advocating this, but I see a decent argument for trading Buxton:

First,

- 2018 looks like it will be a lost year for the Twins. It was supposed to be a step forward, but instead it looks like a step back.

- 2019 was always going to be a quasi-rebuilding year with so much talent (Mauer-Santana-Dozier-Escobar) potentially leaving.

So, how does Buxton fix into a competitive window starting in 2020?

- He is a free agent after 2021.

- If he is a superstar player, then it doesn't matter (you keep your stars). But Buxton's bat might cap him as a 3-4 WAR player rather than a legitimate superstar (update projection systems have him as a 2.5-3 WAR player over a full season now).

- If he leaves after 2021, that sucks the wind out of whatever they are building for 2022 - even a 3-4 WAR player is hard to replace via free agency or trades.

So, it does make some sense to trade Buxton for a player or players that better fit a competitive window starting in 2020. The key is to not give him away. Priced as a 3-4 WAR player over the next 3+ season, he should fetch at least a top-25 prospect.

 

As a hypothetical, I can see a trade that makes sense with Colorado. They are in a win-now moment, and their outfield has been disappointing. They have Brendan Rodgers, a top-20 SS prospect currently raking in AA, but a crowded infield. I would swap Buxton for Rodgers. Colorado could probably get a better player than Buxton, but I doubt they could get higher upside with equivalent team control. And that is the kind of high-variance move that makes sense when competing in the same division as a team like the Dodgers. 

 

Also, note that you can basically make the exact same argument with Sano.

No to 2018 and no to 2019.

[USAFChief]

 

Since 2012, all of our drafts look solid with 2015 maybe an exception. You may recall our 2nd pick came up with problems on his physical and didn't sign. We also gave up a high pick to sign Santana. Year in and year out we have been one of the highest rated teams in IFA.

 

Our scouting is amongst the best baseball, on a consistent basis. No one is stubborn and no one is gutless. Do the research.

Possibly, but since the start of the 2010 season the Twins are 512-673. Topped out at 83 wins.

 

Somebody, somewhere, isn't doing something right.

 

 

 

 

[Doubles]

 

Let's try to take our biased hats off and think of Buxton's value as a fan of a different team.

Last year he made several "Trade Value Player Ranking" lists like SI and Fangraphs... Can his potential still be sold 1,000+ PAs into his career?

If teams outside of the Twins buy into his potential, what would the return look like?

When a player has bottomed-out, as Buck seems to have, is not really the time to consider trading him.

[Jham]

Since 2012, all of our drafts look solid with 2015 maybe an exception. You may recall our 2nd pick came up with problems on his physical and didn't sign. We also gave up a high pick to sign Santana. Year in and year out we have been one of the highest rated teams in IFA.

 

Our scouting is amongst the best baseball, on a consistent basis. No one is stubborn and no one is gutless. Do the research.

What research? It's an opinion. not based on ratings or rankings but actual results. I'm not suggesting that we can't draft or sign international free agents that the experts like. (I'll submit that if I simply selected mlb.com's "best available" mlb.com would probably rank my draft petty well, no scouting required). I'm suggesting that there's a disconnect between the team's perception of a player's value, readiness, and ceiling and reality. We start clocks too soon, we lose trades, and let power pitchers blow out their arms before throwing a single MLB inning. IMO.