Do large dollar, free-agent pitching contracts actually work out?

[prouster]

That is true, but the issue for the team signing the playing is whether that track is about to come to an end. Most of these large signings are based on past performance without real projection of what the future would be. I know Zips and others do it on Fangraphs and I am sure that the analytic departments have the ability. Projections mean more than the track record for the contract, the track record opens the door, the projections close it.

I get your point, but I argue that teams knowingly take on those risks when signing players. It's part of the deal.

[mikelink45]

 

I get your point, but I argue that teams knowingly take on those risks when signing players. It's part of the deal.

You are right, but that does not mean it should continue