Yahoo Sports Says Both Twins and Cardinals Pursuing Trade with Rays for Chris Archer

[bunsen82]

 

Darvish and Sano and it's not even close. Moutakas is a bad third baseman now. Archer has been worth 3 WAR the last two seasons combined. Sano is cheaper than all three guys mentioned. He has higher upside than Moustaka

 

 

 

If you are going to use WAR and say Moustakas is a bad defensive 3rd baseman- he had 1 slightly below average season.  Nothing to sneeze at (-.7), been positive everyother year.  His offensive War has been much better than Sano, now if you expect Sano to become the next Miggy then no, if you expect injuries, some other baggage to potential arise, and his poor poor defense to continue so all you are left with is a DH then you have a completely different situation.  As to Archer and Darvishes War.  Darvish has 3 War greater than Archer over the last two seasons.  However he would have a much better defense behind him.  Darvish I think would also benefit from a slightly better defense but not as much, add in he has played in the East with much more difficult batters than Darvish has faced on a consistent basis, I think you could see Archer blow up playing for a team like the Twins.  Yes there are positives and negatives, but I don't think its as far as what you are suggesting.  And if we can't get Darvish then what, you would still rather have Sano and whatever other FA still left?

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think we should pay close attention to this. It could be that Gordon will fall down the list because more scouts believe he NEEDS to be moved to 2B. Are we hearing this? Sickles mentioned it in the context of a future Lewis/Gordon tandem with Lewis at SS. He remains high on Gordon (B+) and didn't say he couldn't stick at SS.

 

Other scouts may question his splits and see it as a larger problem, and still others might question his power potential I suppose.

 

All that said, I'm personally inclined to think his second half falloff was the product of fatigue, and that's correctable thing. I think he's probably going to be penalized primarily for this, a bit unfairly, and much less for concerns about those other things. The numbers fell off. But we can't ignore his first half.

 

I'm not sure there have been any reports about Gordon not sticking. Prospecting has always placed too much value on the new comers, and I have to think that this is the big reason why he's dropped. Very little changed between 2016 and 2017 that says that Gordon should be valued less. This isn't Kohl Stewart still being unable to strike guys out...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You make a good point.  At what point do you decide to trade a few prospects because you know that a very low percent of them will actually help the club??  You would hope, since they're in your system, that you could do a better job of evaluating the prospects than everyone else. 

I don't think anyone can answer that. The easy answer is "sell high", but that involves knowing what a guy will eventually turn into and unloading him at his peak value.

 

I think the best answer is to trade from surplus and not weakness. If you're convinced that they guy you have will fail, you may as well unload him, but that shouldn't happen all that often.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If you are going to use WAR and say Moustakas is a bad defensive 3rd baseman- he had 1 slightly below average season.  Nothing to sneeze at (-.7), been positive everyother year.  His offensive War has been much better than Sano, now if you expect Sano to become the next Miggy then no, if you expect injuries, some other baggage to potential arise, and his poor poor defense to continue so all you are left with is a DH then you have a completely different situation.  As to Archer and Darvishes War.  Darvish has 3 War greater than Archer over the last two seasons.  However he would have a much better defense behind him.  Darvish I think would also benefit from a slightly better defense but not as much, add in he has played in the East with much more difficult batters than Darvish has faced on a consistent basis, I think you could see Archer blow up playing for a team like the Twins.  Yes there are positives and negatives, but I don't think its as far as what you are suggesting.  And if we can't get Darvish then what, you would still rather have Sano and whatever other FA still left?

 

I'd rather not trade Sano. You make the current team weaker by doing so and defeat the purpose of maximizing the window of opportunity.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think anyone can answer that. The easy answer is "sell high", but that involves knowing what a guy will eventually turn into and unloading him at his peak value.

 

I think the best answer is to trade from surplus and not weakness. If you're convinced that they guy you have will fail, you may as well unload him, but that shouldn't happen all that often.

Especially when it's a pitcher who stumbles because of injury.

 

There's a reason why teams are dedicating resources to predicting pitcher durability (it's important).

 

And why teams haven't been terribly successful in predicting injury (it's hard).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not sure there have been any reports about Gordon not sticking. Prospecting has always placed too much value on the new comers, and I have to think that this is the big reason why he's dropped. Very little changed between 2016 and 2017 that says that Gordon should be valued less. This isn't Kohl Stewart still being unable to strike guys out...

Eleven months ago, Sickels said Gordon projects to be an MLB shortstop so I'm not sure anyone has jumped off the Gordon train quite yet.

[gunnarthor]

 

If you are going to use WAR and say Moustakas is a bad defensive 3rd baseman- he had 1 slightly below average season.  Nothing to sneeze at (-.7), been positive everyother year.  His offensive War has been much better than Sano, now if you expect Sano to become the next Miggy then no, if you expect injuries, some other baggage to potential arise, and his poor poor defense to continue so all you are left with is a DH then you have a completely different situation.  As to Archer and Darvishes War.  Darvish has 3 War greater than Archer over the last two seasons.  However he would have a much better defense behind him.  Darvish I think would also benefit from a slightly better defense but not as much, add in he has played in the East with much more difficult batters than Darvish has faced on a consistent basis, I think you could see Archer blow up playing for a team like the Twins.  Yes there are positives and negatives, but I don't think its as far as what you are suggesting.  And if we can't get Darvish then what, you would still rather have Sano and whatever other FA still left?

Sano beats Mouse is oWAR now, despite playing in few games. He's younger. I'd bet much, much more on him over the next four years than Mouse.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanomi01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moustmi01.shtml

 

Archer has played in the AL East but it's not what it used to be and he also happens to pitch in one of the friendliest pitchers park in the majors and has had amazing defenders behind him. Kevin Kiermaier could be better than Buxton some years. His era in Baltimore and Boston, for example, is well over 6.50 and 7.00, respectively.  Darvish has been nearly twice the pitcher the last two years despite coming back from TJ and having to pitch fewer innings.

 

And yes, I'd rather have Sano and not have Archer, regardless.

[Platoon]

I would also prefer the pre Tommy John, pre leg condition, pre accusation, and pre conditioning issues, Miguel Sano. If I thought that was what I was keeping. But I don't think that's anywhere near a certainty. And that is what, at least to me, makes his value subjective and elusive. Or as Shelock said, "therein lies the question".