Fun With Numbers "A Positive Twist"

[Loosey]

Could the Twins be in 3rd place by the end of the week? Possibly. The Twins are currently only 3 games behind the Indians who are in a complete tailspin right now with the upcoming series between the two teams we might see some shifting in the middle of the AL Central. Personally, I think a finish in 3rd place in the division is quite a feat for this team if you remember how they started.

 

On May 27th the Twins were 15-32 (17 games under .500). Today August 6th, they are 47-61 (14 games under .500). Over their last 61 games or 56% of the games they have played this season Twins are playing .524 baseball (32-29). So really how bad is this season's team? The record of 47-61 is terrible, but the first 2 months of the season were historically bad. If they were playing at the their current 61 game clip over the entire 108 games this season this team's record would be 57-51, good enough for 2.5 games out of first place.

 

Where could the Twins end the season at? Using their currect full season record extrapolated 162 games the Twins projected record would be 71-91. But this post is meant to put a positive twist on things, so I'll do just that. Making the assumption of a continued .524 winning percentage the rest of the way the Twins projected record will be 75-87. If the Twins finish this season just 12 games under .500 I would say that is where most knowledgable fans and experts would put them to start the season and quite a ways away from the 100 loss season many were suggesting in Mid-May. What are your thoughts on the season if this is actually how it ends?

[J-Dog Dungan]

Everything relies on their pitching. If the starters continue to do well, they could beat the 75-87 mark. If not, then who knows?

[spideyo]

More fun: The Twins are currently 4th in all of MLB (2nd in the AL) in stolen bases, and have struck out less than everyone but the Royals. Also, Revere has the second longest active hitting streak in the league.

[snepp]

Hammer is just three home runs (28) behind the ML leader Dunn (31).

[Nick Nelson]

Revere is less than 10 PA away from qualifying for the batting title. His average would rank third in the AL behind Trout and Cabrera.

[jokin]

The "streaking Twins" idea is a bit of a mirage.

 

Twins in July: 12-14 Winning percentage: .461

[jokin]

Twins have in recent times started out stinky and finished even more feebly:

 

Twins in Sep 2010: 2-11 winning percentage- .153 (last 13 games counting the playoffs)

Twins in Ap/May '11: 17-36 winning percentage- .320

Twins in Au/Sep '11: 13-41 winning percentage- .240

Twins in Ap/May '12: 18-32 winning percentage- .360

Twins in Au/Sep '12: ??????

[Nick Nelson]

The "streaking Twins" idea is a bit of a mirage.

 

Twins in July: 12-14 Winning percentage: .461

You really seem to be missing the point of this thread. If you're incapable of saying anything positive, probably best to stay away from this one.

[snepp]

blah

blah

 

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/000/554/facepalm.jpg

[DaveW]

The Twins have the 2nd most come from behind wins after the 3rd inning in all of baseball.

[mikeee]

The twin's next opponent has a 9 game losing streak in tact.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins have the 2nd most come from behind wins after the 3rd inning in all of baseball.

On Tuesdays with a tail wind.

 

Sorry, that "third inning" caveat just cracks me up.

 

On the other hand, it's a testament to just how much their starting pitching has crippled their win total this season.

[DaveW]

Could the Twins be in 3rd place by the end of the week? Possibly. The Twins are currently only 3 games behind the Indians who are in a complete tailspin right now with the upcoming series between the two teams we might see some shifting in the middle of the AL Central. Personally, I think a finish in 3rd place in the division is quite a feat for this team if you remember how they started.

 

On May 27th the Twins were 15-32 (17 games under .500). Today August 6th, they are 47-61 (14 games under .500). Over their last 61 games or 56% of the games they have played this season Twins are playing .524 baseball (32-29). So really how bad is this season's team? The record of 47-61 is terrible, but the first 2 months of the season were historically bad. If they were playing at the their current 61 game clip over the entire 108 games this season this team's record would be 57-51, good enough for 2.5 games out of first place.

 

Where could the Twins end the season at? Using their currect full season record extrapolated 162 games the Twins projected record would be 71-91. But this post is meant to put a positive twist on things, so I'll do just that. Making the assumption of a continued .524 winning percentage the rest of the way the Twins projected record will be 75-87. If the Twins finish this season just 12 games under .500 I would say that is where most knowledgable fans and experts would put them to start the season and quite a ways away from the 100 loss season many were suggesting in Mid-May. What are your thoughts on the season if this is actually how it ends?

+50000

 

I have been trying to say this for weeks. 75 wins after this horrendous start would be a nice victory. Gives me hope for next season and beyond.

 

This team looks like a .500 team currently and has some money coming off the books this off-season along with some intriguing trade chips and prospects knocking on the door.

[mikeee]

Morneau hit .315 in the month of July. He's .421 in the 5 games he's been in this month.

[Obie]

Revere is less than 10 PA away from qualifying for the batting title. His average would rank third in the AL behind Trout and Cabrera.

He is also second in the league in SB behind Mike Trout.

[ALessKosherScott]

The calling up of Nishioka should lead to all kinds of fun jokes with Asian stereotypes. And we all win when that happens.

[Thrylos]

- Don't look, but the Twins' have a team OPS+ of 101 and each regulars in every position (except the middle infield) has individual OPS+ of >103

- Drew Butera has been well above the Mendoza line (.218) and flirting with a career best .600 OPS

[J-Dog Dungan]

Despite his recent slump, Willingham is 3rd in the majors with 81 RBI's.

[jm3319]

Twins are undefeated and score 10+ runs per game with Nishi in the lineup! Schedule that World Series parade now!

[Guest USAFChief]

I have said for a couple months now this team is not that far from contention in 2013. Fix the starting pitching--and there is money to spend this winter if the Pohlads choose to--and it's not out of the realm of possibility to dream of the postseason a year from now. That's why I was against trading Liriano, and have been against dumping guys like Morneau and Willingham.

 

Its also looking more and more like Diamond isn't a mirage. Someone made the comparison in today's game thread and I think it's a good one...looking like a poor man's Mark Buehrle.

[CDog]

Stolen from tonight's game broadcast, but thought it was worth sharing here in case folks missed it: Since the end of July last year (I think the 29th was the date they gave), the Willinghammer leads the league in home runs with 45.

[Ultima Ratio]

Cdog, I'd love to read your comment but some State Farm ad is blocking it.

[Ultima Ratio]

Oh good, the ad moved now. That is an impressive and encouraging stat.

[jokin]

You really seem to be missing the point of this thread. If you're incapable of saying anything positive, probably best to stay away from this one.

I'd like to think of it as a reality check.

[DJSim22]

75-87 would be a nice finishing mark considering where the team started, but I wonder if Sept call-ups may change your record?

 

The run differential has to be +10 or so since the horrid start. We were minus -80 almost after opening day.

 

I don't know what exactly to think about 2013:

 

Diamond is certanly promising, but can he realistically put up a 2.91 ERA again?

 

I am starting to like our line up more and more, if Plouffe can continue his improvement, it could be a real nice line-up.

 

And why in the world haven't we extended Morneau before we can't afford him? Multi year contract when his value was low would have made sense. Waiting now is going to drive up the price a lot I fear.

[jm3319]

 

And why in the world haven't we extended Morneau before we can't afford him? Multi year contract when his value was low would have made sense. Waiting now is going to drive up the price a lot I fear.

 

I agree. He's much more of a risk under his current cost, but if you added 2 years on at roughly half of what he is making now (made up figure, no idea what he is worth), he is more affordable and easier to move if he regresses a bit or we simply want to get younger at 1B. If he continues to rake like he has been these last few games (very small sample size I realize, but he is approaching his career BA) he's going to be getting closer to his $14 M a year value anyway

[jokin]

Pedro Hernandez debut for Rochester tonight, demonstrating that he has the pitch-to-contact concept down pat:

 

2I/10H/6ER/2K/.625OBA/27.00ERA/40 strikes in 60 pitches

[diehardtwinsfan]

why exactly would Morneau want to extend? He extends now, he's leaving significant dollars on the table. He knows he is returning to normal, just like we do. He plays out his contract and does decent next year and someone gives him a nice deal.

[snepp]

Pedro Hernandez debut for Rochester tonight, demonstrating that he has the pitch-to-contact concept down pat:

 

2I/10H/6ER/2K/.625OBA/27.00ERA/40 strikes in 60 pitches

Here's a reality check, it's almost as if one of the site's proprietors didn't ask you to move along.

[DaveW]

Jeff Gray > Jokin

 

Revere has broken the dry spell of first round picks who haven't had much of an impact for the Twins. Hopefully Hicks and Gibson can both help next year.