Article: I Am Second (Base)

[Seth Stohs]

Brian Dozier posted some incredible numbers in 2016. Despite a very slow start and missing games at the end with injury, he hit .268/.340/.546 (.886) with 35 doubles, five triples, 42 homers, 104 runs scored and 99 RBI.

 

On Thursday, the Silver Slugger Awards were announced. Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros won the Award for AL Second Baseman for the third straight year. They don't give any ranking for the awards, but it's possible that, despite his remarkable numbers, Dozier could have finished as low as third among AL second baseman.

 

Long considered a defense-first position, second base has become a position where offense matters. This isn't necessarily new. Altuve, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano have been putting up strong offensive numbers for most of a decade. This year, however, ten American League second basemen posted an fWAR of at least 2.0.There's no real 'analysis' to the below. I'm just going to post the Top 10 rankings among American League second basemen in 2016.

 

What's remarkable to me is that 22-year-old Rougned Odor of the Texas Rangers knocked 33 home runs in 2016 and isn't among the Top 5 in other categories and he's not in the upper half at the position in most categories.

 

Read below to see where Brian Dozier ranked among American League second basemen. In the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, Nick wrote an article on Dealing Dozier. It's well worth the read. You can download a copy of the Handbook right now at no charge (or you are welcomed to give a donation if you choose).

 

Top 10 (Runs Scored)

• Ian Kinsler - 117
• Jose Altuve - 108
• Robinson Cano - 107
• Dustin Pedroia - 105
• Brian Dozier - 104
• Jason Kipnis - 91
• Rougned Odor - 89
• Jonathan Schoop - 82
• Logan Forsythe - 76
• Starlin Castro - 63

Top 10 (RBI)

• Robinson Cano - 103
• Brian Dozier - 99
• Jose Altuve - 96
• Rougned Odor - 88
• Ian Kinsler - 83
• Jason Kipnis - 82
• Dustin Pedroia - 74
• Starlin Castro - 70
• Logan Forsythe - 52
• Devon Travis - 50

Top 10 (Doubles)

• Jose Altuve - 42
• Jason Kipnis - 41
• Jonathan Schoop - 38
• Dustin Pedroia - 36
• Brian Dozier - 35
• Robinson Cano - 33
• Rougned Odor - 33
• Starlin Castro - 29
• Ian Kinsler - 29
• Devon Travis - 28

Top 10 (Home Runs)

• Brian Dozier - 42
• Robinson Cano - 39
• Rougned Odor - 33
• Ian Kinsler - 28
• Jonathan Schoop - 25
• Jose Altuve - 24
• Jason Kipnis - 23
• Starlin Castro - 21
• Logan Forsythe - 20
• Dustin Pedroia - 15

OPS+ (100 is average)

• Jose Altuve - 154
• Robinson Cano -138
• Brian Dozier - 136
• Ian Kinsler - 124
• Dustin Pedroia - 124
• Logan Forsythe - 113
• Devon Travis - 108
• Jason Kipnis - 107
• Rougned Odor - 105
• Brett Lawrie - 99

Top 10 (bWAR - Wins Above Replacement by Baseball Reference)

• Jose Altuve - 6.7
• Robinson Cano - 6.0
• Brian Dozier - 5.9
• Ian Kinsler - 5.8
• Dustin Pedroia - 5.2
• Jason Kipnis - 4.8
• Logan Forsythe - 2.8
• Devon Travis - 2.5
• Rougned Odor - 2.0
• Jonathan Schoop - 2.0

Top 10 (fWAR - Wins Above Replacement by FanGraphs)

• Jose Altuve - 6.7
• Robinson Cano - 6.0
• Brian Dozier - 5.9
• Ian Kinsler - 5.8
• Dustin Pedroia - 5.2
• Jason Kipnis - 4.8
• Logan Forsythe - 2.8
• Devon Travis - 2.5
• Rougned Odor - 2.0
• Jonathan Schoop - 2.0

Of course, FanGraphs also assigns a value in dollars to their WAR calculation. For 2016, that value was approximately $8 million. So just for fun, that would mean that Altuve's 2016 season was valued at $53.4 million. Cano was valued at $47.6 million.

 

Brian Dozier's 2016 season was valued at $47.2 million. Before the 2015 season, Dozier signed a four year, $20 million contract. In 2016, he more than earned his $3 million salary. Since joining the Twins during the 2012 season, he has been valued at $124.5 million to the Twins.

 

For some context, Joe Mauer's 2009 season was valued at $48.4 million. (7.6 WAR at about $6.4 million per) Mauer's 2009 season was the only season in which he eclipsed Dozier's 5.9 fWAR of 2016. Mauer had seasons with 5.8 fWAR () and 5.7 fWAR () and he accumulated 5.3 fWAR in 2013 when his season ended six weeks early with his concussion.

 

Brian Dozier had an incredible 2016 season, one of the best in organization history. He had an incredible season, historically, for a second baseman. In a year of many great second basemen, Dozier was right near the top.

 

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Again, the Offseason Handbook can be downloaded now at no charge (or, name your price).

 

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[Doomtints]

Dozier rocked last year at the same time everyone else tanked.  He deserves a lot of credit for tuning out what was going on around him and mashing the heck out of the ball.  

[mazeville]

I seem to recall a blogger or two - not Seth - being highly skeptical of Dozier and of members of the media who hyped him as a rookie. And then Dozier only went on to become an all-star and one of the best second basemen in the game. 

 

Good for Brian Dozier, who is by all accounts a great guy. One of the very few bright spots to last season.

 

That said, he is at peak value right now. So I cannot imagine Brian Dozier would not attract some good, positive attention on the trade market. This doesn't mean you HAVE to trade him. But the Twins would be bone stupid if they didn't explore the idea. They need too many pieces to ignore that kind of a trade chip.

[Vanimal46]

 

Dozier rocked last year at the same time everyone else tanked.  He deserves a lot of credit for tuning out what was going on around him and mashing the heck out of the ball.  

Watching him hit was literally the only reason for people like me to turn on Twins games during the dog days of summer. 

[Doomtints]

 

I seem to recall a blogger or two - not Seth - being highly skeptical of Dozier and of members of the media who hyped him as a rookie. And then Dozier only went on to become an all-star and one of the best second basemen in the game. 

 

Yeah, that was the narrative.  Dozier had a promising half-season and "regression" was predicted.  I never saw anything that suggested that he would not continue playing well and got a bit blue in the face about it.

 

To the skeptics credit, however, it only took a few months into the next season before they too saw that Dozier wasn't going to fall off a cliff.

As you say, Dozier has probably peaked.  And the Twins have a nice prospect ready to take his place.  This is the perfect storm for a trade that every GM dreams about.  

[bluechipper]

Switching over to the NL, the batting champ, Lemehieu, didn't win the Silver Slugger either because of Daniel Murphy.

 

And even Eddie Rosario calls Rougned Odor a free swinger. Just 19 walks in 632 PAs last year.

[Doomtints]

The Silver Slugger and Gold Glove are popularity contests.  I'm sure Dozier isn't losing any sleep right now.

 

How many Twins have "won" the award?  

Edited November 11, 2016 by Doomtints

[jimmer]

Dozier didn't deserve silver slugger over Altuve.

[operation mindcrime]

I ripped the hell out of Dozier in April and May. I'm real happy he made me eat my words!!! \m/

[snepp]

 

The Silver Slugger and Gold Glove are popularity contests.

 

Gold Glove, yes, quite often. The Silver Slugger not so much, the winners are typically ranked right at the top of their positions.

[jimmer]

Gold Glove has gotten better since they started using SABR info as part of the voting.  Hosmer being a top 3 finalist at 1B in the AL shows the award still has a ways to go.

[Doomtints]

 

Gold Glove has gotten better since they started using SABR info as part of the voting.  Hosmer being a top 3 finalist at 1B in the AL shows the award still has a ways to go.

 

SABR's methodology is terrible, however.  Laughingstock-level terrible.

 

SABR adds every advanced defensive stat together to make an index.  Sounds OK, right?  Lots of systems use indexes (like every major stock index).  But what happens when more than one defensive stat measures a particular event?  That event gets magnified when you add them all together.  Events that are not counted by multiple defensive systems then get silenced.  When an indexing system works, things only get counted once. 

Each defensive system starts by counting the same things, it's only by the margins where things are different.  The margins are important as can be illustrated by the fact that each system produces different results.  By adding each system together, you essentially end up with a metric that exaggerates some tendencies to grotesque extremes while the uniqueness of every system is tossed out the window. 

 

Remember 2015 when Dozier was considered by the media (with a straight face) to be a Gold Glove candidate, and SABR had his score near dead last in the league for defense?  I know Dozier's defense has been overrated, but he's not the worst player in the league.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Doomtints