Article: Twins Being Overwhelmed By Underperformance

[TheLeviathan]

 

Aaron Hicks had virtually a league average bat last year (97 OPS+) in 390 PAs, with enough defensive ability to play CF, at age 25, and trending up with the bat.

 

That isn't "at least competent?"

 

Is it possible you're letting your opinion of him influence your analysis?

 

No, it's not.  My opinion of him is based on him being a bad baseball player and there is ample evidence of it.  

 

We're talking about a player that came back in July last year and was pretty good - other than that one short stretch of the season he was considerably below average.  A guy who hits 10 homeruns in a week and then absolutely sucks for 5 weeks may normalize into a semi-competent player but that didn't change the fact that he was a black hole of terrible play for 5 weeks.  

 

That's what Hicks is.  He can't do anything consistently enough to be a competent player you can rely on.

[savvyspy]

 

Bet Puckett had a higher BMI than Sano when he played RF for the Twins.  For the record, Kelly did not quit.

Right....

 

Kirby Puckett is a career outfielder that at his heaviest was MAYBE 225 lbs. He was 180 lbs as a rookie. BMI is no more relevant than his blood type. Puckett was a Hall of Fame outfielder his entire career.

 

Sano is a 280 lbs DH/3B who has never played in the outfield before this season.

 

Comparing Puckett and Sano is like comparing Apples and the Number 7. 

[LaBombo]

 

I don't think they expected Murphy to displace Suzuki as the starter.

Nor do I,   not right away at least.    But given how much they invested in continually overestimating Hicks,   it seems to me like they probably still valued him highly enough even after last season that they wouldn't have traded him if they felt they were getting just a disposable 'Butera 1.1' catch-and-throw guy in return.

 

My guess is that they hoped JRM would learn from Suzuki in 2016 while giving them enough production to only ask Suzuki to catch 100-110 games instead of the absurd 130 he had in 2015,  and then cross their fingers and hope that he might develop enough at the plate to take over for Suzuki before Zukes flamed out entirely.

 

That's not to say the Twins were misguided enough to see JR as 'The Answer' at catcher,  either right away or in the long run as the 120 games/year guy for a contender.    Then again,  it's the Twins,  so who the hell really knows what they're thinking at this point.

[chopper0080]

 

No, it's not.  My opinion of him is based on him being a bad baseball player and there is ample evidence of it.  

 

We're talking about a player that came back in July last year and was pretty good - other than that one short stretch of the season he was considerably below average.  A guy who hits 10 homeruns in a week and then absolutely sucks for 5 weeks may normalize into a semi-competent player but that didn't change the fact that he was a black hole of terrible play for 5 weeks.  

 

That's what Hicks is.  He can't do anything consistently enough to be a competent player you can rely on.

 

So, you are debating consistency vs competency.  The argument you are posing is that Hicks can be competent in spurts, but fails to do so consistently.  My counter to that is if Hicks was consistent, he wouldn't be a back up player.  Mastro can't be decent for any stretch, and he isn't going to develop into anything more than that.  Hicks at least has the ability to be a competent, league average player, even if it is inconsistently, and is young enough that there could be hope that he becomes more consistent.  You are never going to have a bench of guys who are both consistent and competent.  With that being understood, isn't a bench of guys who are inconsistently competent better than a bench of guys who are consistently incompetent?

 

[Platoon]

Another point in favor of Hicks as the 4th OF would have been that he's already a pretty good hitter when batting right-handed  (.257/.347/.418).    That made him a good choice to platoon with Arcia and pinch hit for him, in addition to his ability to serve as an excellent defensive sub for him.   It would also make him a good choice to spot start for Rosario occasionally against tough lefties.

What is this pinch hit and platoon you speak of? Hopefully not another of them new fangled ideas like the catcher wearing a mask!

[Platoon]

Whether one agreed with the decision or not, Hicks fate was just another fallout from not trading Plouffe. It's amazing the trickle down effect that non trade caused! By trading Plouffe, if possible for a better catching prospect, we would have had a better defensive OF, and a more balanced lineup. Santana tries, but Hicks is still a better CF.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You are never going to have a bench of guys who are both consistent and competent.  With that being understood, isn't a bench of guys who are inconsistently competent better than a bench of guys who are consistently incompetent?

 

Sure you do, the problem is not consistency vs. competency, it's what degree of competency you'll accept from a player on your bench.  

 

Would I be totally opposed to Aaron Hicks the 4th OF?  No, but I was arguing against the suggestion that Aaron Hicks is more than that.  I also would prefer a significantly better Plan B for Buxton than him.  The Twins could've signed someone capable of playing CF and played them in RFuntil he was needed.  

 

Now this required adding someone like Fowler (who I said all offseason would've been my top priority) and it would've required dumping the asinine idea of moving Sano to RF by trading Plouffe. However they did it, the point was that no one on the roster was a sufficient Plan B for Buxton including Hicks.  They needed to go outside and avoid the mistake they made when they rushed Hicks, instead they doubled down with Buxton.