Sammy Says: Gardenhire to Manage in 2016!

[Guest]

WARNING: THE FOLLOWING IS A PREDICTION. IF IT WERE KNOWN FACT, THE AUTHOR WOULD BE IN LAS VEGAS LIVING IT UP INSTEAD OF WRITING THIS MERE PIECE FOR YOU. DO NOT BEND, FOLD, SPINDLE, OR MUTILATE THE AUTHOR. 

 

SUMMARY: How Paul Molitor will get Bill Smithed

 

You can buy a high-end tip sheet or just read this post, brought to you gratis and without expectation of any pecuniary or personal reward, and you'll get the same value for your money. Despite their spending millions or billions of dollars on research and marketing, if you want to know the weather a month from now, you would be better off looking at history books than relying on the glossing and exciting predictions published by forecasters. Yes, history is the best predictor. It may not repeat, but it definitely rhymes.

 

And what does history tell us about baseball that could be useful for predicting the future? Or at least for writing this electronic fish wrapper article? At least two things.

 

(1) Former managers are often preferred for open jobs. That's good for Ron Gardenhire. As one of only a handful of managers in history with more than 1,000 wins, and as one of the youngest living members of that club, any Karnak, Swami or Sammy can comfortably predict that he will manage again in the major leagues. This doesn't sound so bad, now, does it? Everybody wishes Gardy well, right? Right?

 

(2) Terry Ryan likes to bring the old gang back together. Uh, oh, this sounds more ominous. Gardenhire and Ryan are friends. As far as that goes, Bill Smith and Ryan are friends. If Ryan were to have an opening, history suggests you can safely expect him to give priority consideration to his old friends. 

 

Now, what does that mean about Gardenhire managing in 2016? Well, it would not take much more than we've seen for someone to decide that Paul Molitor is not cut out to manage the current version of the Twins. I can't stand the meme that veteran leadership is needed on the field and dugout; leadership is what the manager is supposed to do. Bruce Bochy, Ned Yost and Joe Maddon never cry about needing veteran leadership, the '87 Twins did not grow up with veteran leadership (no, Bert did not provide clubhouse leadership), and, going back at least to Phil Nevin, the veterans brought in to provide leadership are more often than not of little value as leaders and/or players. That said, it does appear that Molitor needs someone to be his emotional balance, someone to be hot to his cool. This is a weakness of Molitor as a manager.

 

So let's say the current miasma continues for a couple of months and the clubhouse starts to be an uncomfortable place. Management starts worrying about damaging the futures of its valued young players (well maybe not worried enough to hire personal trainers for them, but enough to allow anonymous quotes about the clubhouse to appear in newspaper articles written by their favorite local writers). Terry Ryan, he of the amazing one playoff series win in nearly 20 years of upper executive baseball management, will look for someone to take the fall. Well, hello Paul! And goodbye, Paul.

 

Molitor has been playing TR's line-up, running the team the way TR wanted it run (does anyone want to bet against the proposition that the most important factor in getting hired as manager two years ago was whether the person would be a good soldier?) and doing an all-around good job at being a company guy. Well, like Bill Smith (who must have consulted TR on many of his worst moves, including the trade for a "proven closer" that TR said he would do again), if things don't improve, Paul Molitor is going to be labeled as a good guy who just isn't cut out for all the responsibilities of a high level position.

 

Now, TR will need someone willing to be an "interim" manager. We've seen how "interim" works. Dougie Baseball would probably be willing, but TR will say that he doesn't want to interrupt Chattanooga's season. He'll stress the need to calm the clubhouse and bring in someone who can command immediate respect, yada yada yada. And then TR will say that Ron Gardenhire is refreshed and willing to do whatever he's asked to do on an "interim" basis. And, abra cadabra, ipso facto, "please join me in welcoming Ron Gardenhire as the Twins manager for the rest of 2016."

[Mr. Brooks]

And if so, this is why so many were upset at bringing Gardy back into the organization.

It makes him the default replacement if Molitor is ever fired.

[notoriousgod71]

If this were to happen Target Field would be burned to the ground.

[Monkeypaws]

Wwwait a minute, what about Dougie Baseball?

[Minniman]

I hope not.

 

[Bark's Lounge]

 

WARNING: THE FOLLOWING IS A PREDICTION. IF IT WERE KNOWN FACT, THE AUTHOR WOULD BE IN LAS VEGAS LIVING IT UP INSTEAD OF WRITING THIS MERE PIECE FOR YOU. DO NOT BEND, FOLD, SPINDLE, OR MUTILATE THE AUTHOR. 

 

SUMMARY: How Paul Molitor will get Bill Smithed

 

You can buy a high-end tip sheet or just read this post, brought to you gratis and without expectation of any pecuniary or personal reward, and you'll get the same value for your money. Despite their spending millions or billions of dollars on research and marketing, if you want to know the weather a month from now, you would be better off looking at history books than relying on the glossing and exciting predictions published by forecasters. Yes, history is the best predictor. It may not repeat, but it definitely rhymes.

 

And what does history tell us about baseball that could be useful for predicting the future? Or at least for writing this electronic fish wrapper article? At least two things.

 

(1) Former managers are often preferred for open jobs. That's good for Ron Gardenhire. As one of only a handful of managers in history with more than 1,000 wins, and as one of the youngest living members of that club, any Karnak, Swami or Sammy can comfortably predict that he will manage again in the major leagues. This doesn't sound so bad, now, does it? Everybody wishes Gardy well, right? Right?

 

(2) Terry Ryan likes to bring the old gang back together. Uh, oh, this sounds more ominous. Gardenhire and Ryan are friends. As far as that goes, Bill Smith and Ryan are friends. If Ryan were to have an opening, history suggests you can safely expect him to give priority consideration to his old friends. 

 

Now, what does that mean about Gardenhire managing in 2016? Well, it would not take much more than we've seen for someone to decide that Paul Molitor is not cut out to manage the current version of the Twins. I can't stand the meme that veteran leadership is needed on the field and dugout; leadership is what the manager is supposed to do. Bruce Bochy, Ned Yost and Joe Maddon never cry about needing veteran leadership, the '87 Twins did not grow up with veteran leadership (no, Bert did not provide clubhouse leadership), and, going back at least to Phil Nevin, the veterans brought in to provide leadership are more often than not of little value as leaders and/or players. That said, it does appear that Molitor needs someone to be his emotional balance, someone to be hot to his cool. This is a weakness of Molitor as a manager.

 

So let's say the current miasma continues for a couple of months and the clubhouse starts to be an uncomfortable place. Management starts worrying about damaging the futures of its valued young players (well maybe not worried enough to hire personal trainers for them, but enough to allow anonymous quotes about the clubhouse to appear in newspaper articles written by their favorite local writers). Terry Ryan, he of the amazing one playoff series win in nearly 20 years of upper executive baseball management, will look for someone to take the fall. Well, hello Paul! And goodbye, Paul.

 

Molitor has been playing TR's line-up, running the team the way TR wanted it run (does anyone want to bet against the proposition that the most important factor in getting hired as manager two years ago was whether the person would be a good soldier?) and doing an all-around good job at being a company guy. Well, like Bill Smith (who must have consulted TR on many of his worst moves, including the trade for a "proven closer" that TR said he would do again), if things don't improve, Paul Molitor is going to be labeled as a good guy who just isn't cut out for all the responsibilities of a high level position.

 

Now, TR will need someone willing to be an "interim" manager. We've seen how "interim" works. Dougie Baseball would probably be willing, but TR will say that he doesn't want to interrupt Chattanooga's season. He'll stress the need to calm the clubhouse and bring in someone who can command immediate respect, yada yada yada. And then TR will say that Ron Gardenhire is refreshed and willing to do whatever he's asked to do on an "interim" basis. And, abra cadabra, ipso facto, "please join me in welcoming Ron Gardenhire as the Twins manager for the rest of 2016."

By the time you read this, you will be probably coming down from your acid trip. Don't worry about it, all the folks that have taken that walk have for the most part, come out okay. Your gonna be fine, your idea was just a part of the experience.

[twinsnorth49]

TLDNR

[ScrapTheNickname]

no

[Platoon]

I doubt it will happen, but it would truly be a classic Twins Way move. It would be entertaining watching them try to spin it. And remember, Bud Grant, Terry Ryan, and Flip Saunders. It's not out of the realm. Soul crushing yes, but definitely doable! Just the fact that it is, speaks volumes of the disfunction in place!

[mikelink45]

What a nightmare you paint - Neil Gaiman should hire you.  If this happens I am going to turn to Rugby.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gardy is going the Carew/Oliva route.  He's done. I wouldn't be surprised if Molitor is gone in 2016, and I think Dougie M. is the candidate there. 

[Ncgo4]

The scariest part of what I just read is that it makes 100% sense in consideration of the "Twin's Way". It's a scarier read Steven King. By the way, it was a brilliant post but I could not check "like" 'cause I hated it so much.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I need to lie down for a while.