Draft stuff

[gunnarthor]

 

This is my opinion, I could be wrong:

 

the Braves have dealt every veteran but 1, for picks/players. The Twins kept Perkins and others.

The braves have been working hard to acquire more picks, the Twins have not.

The braves are rumored to be spending big in the international world, the Twins are literally tied to zero of the top 30 players, and, contrary to belief, tied matters. It is all pretty much done at this point.

 

One team is truly rebuilding, the other is not.

 

I could be wrong, maybe they tried really hard to acquire more picks and tried to trade Plouffe and Perkins and others, and just couldn't. But, it does not appear to me that the Twins are all in on aquiring more youth.

 

As for the minor league system......it's going to look pretty barren next year for hitters other than Gordon. 

It stuns me to always hear you say the Twins weren't rebuilding.  It actually makes my head hurt.  I have no idea how you can say this.  The Twins kept Perkins b/c they thought a top closer at below market value would be a good thing to have on their next winning team.  It wasn't a bad thought.  Ryan traded Morneau, Slowey, Liriano, Doumit, Butera, Herrmann etc ....  my lord.  

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Not commenting on the Twins trying to add talent, but I do wonder where the farm system will rank starting next year. Half of the top 10 is going to graduate or fall off that list and the projected replacements aren't nearly as strong. The shine will wear off the overall system's reputation if these highly-touted prospects continue to struggle so mightily in the majors all season. The next crop is pretty much Gordon and the pile of pitchers in A-ball who are promising but still a big unknown. We don't have a strong draft pick or international FA coming into the system this year either.

 

 

Even after graduations, it'll be a solid system.  I think Gonsalves will jump into some top 100 lists and Stewart will as well.  Both should be at AA by the end of the year.  Gordon is our best hitter but we have a few potential sleepers in Cabbage and Vielma.  My guess is that next year we'll have five top 100 guys (assuming Kepler and Berrios graduate) - Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, Gordon and Polanco.  That's not bad.  And #15 in this draft could be a pretty good player and might be on a top 100.  Thorpe and Burdi (if he's still a prospect) might get some love.  It's certainly pitching heavy but not bad considering all the (assumed) graduations.  

[alarp33]

 

It stuns me to always hear you say the Twins weren't rebuilding.  It actually makes my head hurt.  I have no idea how you can say this.  The Twins kept Perkins b/c they thought a top closer at below market value would be a good thing to have on their next winning team.  It wasn't a bad thought.  Ryan traded Morneau, Slowey, Liriano, Doumit, Butera, Herrmann etc ....  my lord.  

 

You can't seriously be pointing to those examples and say that means we were rebuilding.  

 

The same Ryan Doumit that was very good in 2012, got a contract extension mid-season even though it was a 90 loss team and then was eventually traded for nothing? 

 

I could go on with the other players on your list but I can't tell if this is meant to be satirical or not

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

all farm systems graduate people.  I agree that the lower minors talent is a bit more sparse, but there's still some decent hitting prospects in the system beyond Gordon.  Cabbage, Blankenhorn, Wade, Arraez, Palacios, Diaz, and Javier are all guys who have pretty high ceilings.  We may find ourselves unbalanced with pitching prospects, but truthfully, those are much easier to move.  Pitching prospects are currency, whether that be for MLB talent or for picking up blocked higher ceiling prospects at positions we need. 

 

By the way, I agree with Gunnathor here on this rebuild.  The idea we haven't been rebuilding the last few years is down right silly.  Saying this isn't a rebuild because from what I can tell the Twins never called it as such and the Twins didn't operate exactly the way many people here would have is simply faulty logic.  Yeah, we aren't going to agree with every decision.  For that matter, we won't agree with each other on every decision that was made.  That doesn't mean that there was no rebuild or that the Twins are not trying to add talent, and that is what is being implied here, whether intentionally or not.

[alarp33]

I think people may be confusing "Losings lots of games" with "Rebuilding"

[Taildragger8791]

 

Even after graduations, it'll be a solid system.  I think Gonsalves will jump into some top 100 lists and Stewart will as well.  Both should be at AA by the end of the year.  Gordon is our best hitter but we have a few potential sleepers in Cabbage and Vielma.  My guess is that next year we'll have five top 100 guys (assuming Kepler and Berrios graduate) - Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, Gordon and Polanco.  That's not bad.  And #15 in this draft could be a pretty good player and might be on a top 100.  Thorpe and Burdi (if he's still a prospect) might get some love.  It's certainly pitching heavy but not bad considering all the (assumed) graduations.  

 

I would assume (hope) that Kepler, Berrios, and Polanco all graduate this year. That leaves Gordon as the only hitter that consistently shows up in the top 15. I scanned around to various lists and you see names like Cabbage, Palacios, Vielma, and Wander Javier (very raw 17-year old in DR) float in the mid- to upper-teens, but they all have a lower ceiling and much lower floor to consider. My only point was none of those are close to the pedigree of guys graduating off this list, so that's a big downgrade. It is nice to see some quality pitching in there, hopefully they can live up to expectations into AA this year. I think that will be the biggest driver in our system ranking next year.

 

The #15 pick has potential of course, but the draft overall this year isn't considered to be particularly strong and the Twins haven't produced much in the first round without a top 6 draft pick over the last 10 years. Hicks, Revere, and Parmalee is about it. That just may be my current pessimism showing through though. It's hard to be optimistic without a track record to point to.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You can't seriously be pointing to those examples and say that means we were rebuilding.  

 

The same Ryan Doumit that was very good in 2012, got a contract extension mid-season even though it was a 90 loss team and then was eventually traded for nothing? 

 

I could go on with the other players on your list but I can't tell if this is meant to be satirical or not

 

This is precisely the type of thing you do in a rebuild.  Doumit provide some value.  He wasn't blocking anyone, and wasn't going to be traded.  There was no heir apparent to move him, and so he got locked up for a reasonable deal, and was eventually traded. 

 

My fear with statements like this is that people seem to think that a rebuild is calling some kid at A ball up to the majors and playing the kids.  That will fail far more than it succeeds, and even if it works, you waste all their service time with them learning on the job.  You need placeholders like Doumit.  I won't argue that the Twins would have been served picking up more of these types of deals (such as Feldman/Baker instead of Pelfrey/Correia), but let's not pretend that this isn't a rebuild.  This is simply rebuilding differently than how you would have done it. 

 

Rebuilding is acquiring shorter term assets to act as place holders until the long term assets are available.  It's also about acquiring more of those lottery tickets to help long term.  There are lots of ways to do that. 

[Mike Sixel]

It is clearly a rebuild. It appears to be a somewhat slow one, and it appears to be further away than any of us thought.

 

However, imo again, signing pitchers to long term deals, making them not tradable, seems like an odd rebuild strategy. That's just my opinion, of course.

 

I don't think Polanco will be eligible for rookie status next year. I think gunnar has the other names correct for top 100, which as I stated, leaves the farm looking pretty barren for non pitching help (though I do think one of the catchers will be up, out of necessity if not readiness).

[alarp33]

 

This is precisely the type of thing you do in a rebuild.  Doumit provide some value.  He wasn't blocking anyone, and wasn't going to be traded.  There was no heir apparent to move him, and so he got locked up for a reasonable deal, and was eventually traded. 

 

 

Signing a 31 year old who is a free agent at seasons end, and is performing above career averages to a multi year deal certainly seems to be part of their plan (Suzuki, Doumit), but we'll have to agree to disagree if you think that is rebuilding.  

 

If I was rebuilding, I would have traded Doumit and Suzuki in the midst of these career years rather than give them 2 year extensions.  Neither figure into my long term plans, and they have trade deadline value. 

 

I'm not sure who suggested calling up kids from A ball and playing them means rebuilding, but I certainly didn't. 

[Mike Sixel]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-sold-a-draft-pick-again/

 

[jokin]

 

Signing a 31 year old who is a free agent at seasons end, and is performing above career averages to a multi year deal certainly seems to be part of their plan (Suzuki, Doumit), but we'll have to agree to disagree if you think that is rebuilding.  

 

If I was rebuilding, I would have traded Doumit and Suzuki in the midst of these career years rather than give them 2 year extensions.  Neither figure into my long term plans, and they have trade deadline value. 

 

I'm not sure who suggested calling up kids from A ball and playing them means rebuilding, but I certainly didn't. 

 

Bingo. Re: Steven Clevenger (back-up Cubs catcher) and Scott Feldman (flipped) for future key pieces. Many of us at the time were saying these are exactly the type of guys you sign and flip (Feldman) or throw in as sweetener (Clevenger) as part of the machinations of an ongoing rebuild.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Signing a 31 year old who is a free agent at seasons end, and is performing above career averages to a multi year deal certainly seems to be part of their plan (Suzuki, Doumit), but we'll have to agree to disagree if you think that is rebuilding.  

 

If I was rebuilding, I would have traded Doumit and Suzuki in the midst of these career years rather than give them 2 year extensions.  Neither figure into my long term plans, and they have trade deadline value. 

 

I'm not sure who suggested calling up kids from A ball and playing them means rebuilding, but I certainly didn't. 

 

Well they had no one coming up to replace him, and then they traded him.  Perhaps they should have let him go and found another 31 year old place holder?  Or perhaps they should have gone out and dropped 100M on a guy who will now be one of those aging contracts that you cannot trade. 

 

I never said I agreed with every move they made, but you have to respect the fact that they still have to put 25 guys on that roster.  If the value coming back in the trade isn't worth it, or there are no reasonable options in FA that offseason, then I don't think you just dump them.  You still have to put something on the diamond, and yes, something can be a lot worse than Doumit or Suzuki.  We all say Herrman and Butera take way too many at bats over the last few years, and guys like that would have (at best) been your starters.  It's quite possible we'd have had worse options than that. 

 

I find the Doumit example rather odd given that he was traded.  And while I expected Suzuki to be traded in 2014, the return obviously wasn't that good if Ryan was willing to give him 6M a year.  That's not much for a catcher by the way... not that Suzuki has been excellent since, but he's not exactly playing massively below value either. 

 

But that's just my point about a rebuild.  These are still rebuilding moves.  The Twins had a few no bat catchers and Pinto in the pipeline (to be clear, I didn't favor getting rid of him, but he hasn't exactly proven them wrong either).  They haven't hamstrung the team, Doumit got traded, and I suspect Suzuki will get moved as well for probably not much less than what he would have gotten in 2014. 

 

Simply put, their rebuilding doesn't involve nuking the whole franchise.  You may not agree, and I get that (I'd have probably made some different moves myself), but denying there is no rebuild going on is ignoring everything they have done. 

[Hrbowski]

 

Bingo. Re: Steven Clevenger (back-up Cubs catcher) and Scott Feldman (flipped) for future key pieces. Many of us at the time were saying these are exactly the type of guys you sign and flip (Feldman) or throw in as sweetener (Clevenger) as part of the machinations of an ongoing rebuild.

Meanwhile the Twins were the only other team in on Arrieta. It isn't like they are a bunch of gomers who nothing about baseball.

[alarp33]

Well they had no one coming up to replace him, and then they traded him.  Perhaps they should have let him go and found another 31 year old place holder?  Or perhaps they should have gone out and dropped 100M on a guy who will now be one of those aging contracts that you cannot trade. 

 

I never said I agreed with every move they made, but you have to respect the fact that they still have to put 25 guys on that roster.  If the value coming back in the trade isn't worth it, or there are no reasonable options in FA that offseason, then I don't think you just dump them.  You still have to put something on the diamond, and yes, something can be a lot worse than Doumit or Suzuki.  We all say Herrman and Butera take way too many at bats over the last few years, and guys like that would have (at best) been your starters.  It's quite possible we'd have had worse options than that. 

 

I find the Doumit example rather odd given that he was traded.  And while I expected Suzuki to be traded in 2014, the return obviously wasn't that good if Ryan was willing to give him 6M a year.  That's not much for a catcher by the way... not that Suzuki has been excellent since, but he's not exactly playing massively below value either. 

 

But that's just my point about a rebuild.  These are still rebuilding moves.  The Twins had a few no bat catchers and Pinto in the pipeline (to be clear, I didn't favor getting rid of him, but he hasn't exactly proven them wrong either).  They haven't hamstrung the team, Doumit got traded, and I suspect Suzuki will get moved as well for probably not much less than what he would have gotten in 2014. 

 

Simply put, their rebuilding doesn't involve nuking the whole franchise.  You may not agree, and I get that (I'd have probably made some different moves myself), but denying there is no rebuild going on is ignoring everything they have done.

 

Only 1/3 of Doumit's at bats were at Catcher in 2013, so I'm not really gonna go with "no replacements" angle. Yes, I know they traded him... For nothing, my point is at the 2012 All Star break he may have had actually value. Him, Suzuki, etc are the exact type of players rebuilding teams sell high on. Neither have provided the Twins with any value, and both will leave with no return

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Only 1/3 of Doumit's at bats were at Catcher in 2013, so I'm not really gonna go with "no replacements" angle. Yes, I know they traded him... For nothing, my point is at the 2012 All Star break he may have had actually value. Him, Suzuki, etc are the exact type of players rebuilding teams sell high on. Neither have provided the Twins with any value, and both will leave with no return

To be honest, I highly doubt that he ever had much value.  He was signed on a one year make good deal.  Any value he was going to have would have been contingent on him replicating the same season. I guy who had no value in April is not going to be worth a ton in July.  We may have to agree to disagree here, but teams aren't giving up nice prospects to acquire a guy like Doumit at the deadline. 

[biggentleben]

https://calltothepen.com/2016/05/25/mock-mlb-draft-projecting-first-41-picks-version-2/

 

That's my mock up with descriptions for each pick, not that there's a ton of in-depth writing on the Twins' pick, but more than just a name...

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Meanwhile the Twins were the only other team in on Arrieta. It isn't like they are a bunch of gomers who nothing about baseball.

Okay, but they were in on him before he was who he is now. Would have become who he is with the Twins? 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Okay, but they were in on him before he was who he is now. Would have become who he is with the Twins? 

That's probably not likely a big part of Arrieta's success has been they've let him throw how he wants to and how he used before the Orioles started messing with his mechanics.  The other thing is Chris Bosio, that man has turned more trashpile pickups into gold than Rumpelstiltskin.