Article: Out Of Options But Not Out Of The Plans

[Dr. Evil]

You can stick your head up a bulls arse to check the meat or you can just take the butcher's word for it.

[dxpavelka]

 

What are you talking about? Why does someone have to predict the future to justify the use of BABIP?

 

Also, I don't understand why using OPS to make a projection is fair game but BABIP isn't.

You're justifying the use of BABIP because it worked last year.  I'm simply asking what's going to happen this year with the low hanging fruit already having been used.  Are those crickets I'm hearing?

[dxpavelka]

 

But not all equal AVG and OPS figures are created equal. With fewer strikeouts and a lower BABIP, it would have been possible for Santana to have the exact same AVG and OPS in the exact same number of plate appearances in 2014. But that would have been evidence of a real change in skill (reduced strikeouts) rather than luck (abnormally high average on balls in play) and would have projected better going forward. So there is value in digging deeper beyond just AVG and OPS, and I see no problem with including BABIP in that deeper analysis. Heck, you yourself referenced OPS in your evaluation of Santana, another stat introduced by "stat geeks" 30 some years ago.

So you're not going to bite on the predictions for this year either.  Hell, you didn't even copy that part of my post.  Low hanging fruit has been used and now---nothing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You're justifying the use of BABIP because it worked last year. 

No, we're justifying the consideration of BABIP (along with other stats, of course) because of mountains of research like this:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/9/1/2393318/what-hitting-metrics-are-consistent-year-to-year

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So you're not going to bite on the predictions for this year either.  Hell, you didn't even copy that part of my post.  Low hanging fruit has been used and now---nothing.

You're asking me to prove the usefulness of BABIP by making a personal prediction for Danny Santana's 2016 stat line.

 

If I said that early childhood education was a leading indicator of future academic success, would you respond, "Prove it, hotshot -- what's my nephew Danny's GPA going to be next year?"

 

it's absurd.