The stock market

[Willihammer]

 

I think it's a byproduct of a few things:

 

1. Apple has more money than they know what to do with... No point in leaving it in a bank to waste away.

2. Apple is too stringent with their purchases of other companies (as I pointed out in a later thread).

3. A nice byproduct of investing in yourself is that your stock is unlikely to be as affected by market fluctuations and it shows stability.

4. Apple, at least outwardly, has lacked imagination since Jobs died and doesn't have enough good ideas to consume all that money in R&D (though their R&D expenditures have exploded in recent years).

 

Mostly, I think it's number one.

Well the last $40b would have been better in a zero-interest bank account, because its buybacks have been at $97/share on up to $128. Today the price sits at $96. 

I'm sure there's a lot of shareholder demand for buybacks / dividends, but that is an alarming amount of waste IMO. 

[glunn]

I think that VR is the next big thing, but am not willing to bet on who will win this market.

 

My surest bet is that there will be a lot more old people, so I am heavy on SNH and am looking to get into NRZ.  I endured a big dip in SNH, but recently it has come back and in the meantime the dividends exceeded 8%.  These may be especially good plays for an IRA or other retirement plan where the taxes on dividends are deferred.  They are not high flyers, but seem pretty safe over the long run.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya. I have been trying to pick a health care reit....if I had just picked one.....oh well

[gunnarthor]

Mike - If you are looking for a nice dividend stock and want to take advice from some idiot on a baseball message board, I will say that one nice stock we owned was HP, the oil rig company.  We bought it in 07 and sold it a couple years ago when we paid off a bunch of my student loans.  We tripled our money on that investment and that's not even counting the really nice dividends we got.  Oil's been knocked around a bit the last few years but it's starting to come out of it.  I think it's priced a bit high - in the 60s - but if it slips into the 50s it's a bargain.  IMHO. And the dividend approaches 5%.  Since it's an oil rig company, it rises and falls with oil demand but the price will eventually get over 100 again.  

[Mike Sixel]

At or near an all time high.....Obama has really killed industry in this country.....

 

Glad I keep doubling down on NVIDIA. 

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, it looks like you timed that market really well.  That always feels good.  I was talking to my wife about that stock because you brought it up.  We both are skittish around "technology" stocks b/c we don't feel like we know enough about the industry (as if I know enough about banking or oil, but whatever).  So we haven't made many investments in 'tech'.  Although we did buy up some Oracle stock in Summer '00.  

Edited July 11, 2016 by gunnarthor

[gunnarthor]

Anyone jump on Netflix? 

[Mike Sixel]

I had previously gotten out....but I may get back in now.

 

I have a very large sum of money I just moved into my trading account (having sold my house), and want to gamble about 10K, and "safely" invest the rest.

 

Having sat on it for a few weeks while we paid bills and figured out our "free cash".....I probably lost around 10-15K in profit already.......sigh. And now I'm less confident in my choices.

[gunnarthor]

We were kicking the tires on it but decided to hold our money. I do expect the economy to go down so we haven't invested (and the darn thing keeps going up) but we also might invest in some real estate so ....

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm a bit bearish on Netflix for the next few years even though I own, dunno... $3-4k of their stock? I'd have to check.

 

This is the way I see it playing out:

 

1. Netflix struggles in the short- and mid-term as everybody and their mother decides "Herp derp, we can offer our own streaming service! It'll be tops! There's no way we'll lose money supporting a team of developers and server costs (probably starting at half a million a year) because people will love the idea of paying $8/mo to stream only AMC television shows! PROFIT!"

 

2. These individual stations will lose their ass as they realize that unless the content is spectacular, a la carte television will not work. A few content providers will shine: Netflix, HBO, Amazon. The rest will see either diminished subscription rates (who wants to pay $8/mo for AMC?) or 2-3 month subscriptions that binge-watch everything over the past year and then cancel. Either way, it won't be enough to support the infrastructure, which is super-duper-expensive. Developers aren't cheap. The amount of bandwidth required to stream seamless video isn't cheap.

 

3. After all this plays out, Netflix and Amazon will continue plugging away as content providers realize they can make more money by leasing their content to an aggregate provider instead of going all Wild West and creating/maintaining their own streaming service.

 

I could be wrong but I foresee stuff like CBS All Access being giant failures when all is said and done. If a network can't provide 4-5 stellar shows a year - which Amazon, HBO, and Netflix have shown they can do - they won't survive.

 

And Amazon and Netflix aren't only providing great original content, they're also aggregating content from other providers. They may stumble a bit for a few years but ultimately, I see them coming out on top.

[joethastud]

Relatively small dollar amount, but I got in on and out on NTDOY in a lottery ticket like fashion.  Probably my best stock transaction to date. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Relatively small dollar amount, but I got in on and out on NTDOY in a lottery ticket like fashion.  Probably my best stock transaction to date. 

I fugged up the launch date of Pokemon Go and missed my opportunity. I planned to jump into Nintendo in a (rare for me) short-term move and then... Completely forgot about it.

 

Arghblargh.

 

Nice work, Joe.

[joethastud]

 

I fugged up the launch date of Pokemon Go and missed my opportunity. I planned to jump into Nintendo in a (rare for me) short-term move and then... Completely forgot about it.

 

Arghblargh.

 

Nice work, Joe.

 

I was extremely hesitant because NTDOY is a OTCMKTS.  I had to pay a small % fee to make the trade - buy & sell.  I snuck in at 18 and change and stormed out at 34.

 

The only other time I've bought short term was two years ago.  The week before Alibaba went public, I bought  Yahoo hard.  Alibaba went public and Yahoo tanked.  I got killed.  I sold on impulse and Yahoo ended up rebounding.  If it would have been less money, I probably would have stuck around.  I played it like an absolute rookie.

[DaveW]

I was extremely hesitant because NTDOY is a OTCMKTS. I had to pay a small % fee to make the trade - buy & sell. I snuck in at 18 and change and stormed out at 34.

 

The only other time I've bought short term was two years ago. The week before Alibaba went public, I bought Yahoo hard. Alibaba went public and Yahoo tanked. I got killed. I sold on impulse and Yahoo ended up rebounding. If it would have been less money, I probably would have stuck around. I played it like an absolute rookie.

You should take your money and put it in the statfreak 1 on 1 baseball camp, I hear they are prime for a large expansion nationwide soon!

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's kinda funny, in a sad way, to see Nintendo stock plummet because PEOPLE ARE STUPID.

 

Nintendo announced they only receive 32% of Pokemon Go profits and their stock immediately went into freefall. ARE INVESTORS DOING NO RESEARCH? I thought this was common knowledge, stuff I found out during casual internet searches a few weeks ago.

 

The Pokemon Company - the real owner of the franchise - is split between companies. Then Niantic gets its cut. And Apple and Google get their cuts.

 

The real winner here is Google. They receive 30% of all sales on Android and they own part of Niantic.

 

The secondary winner here is Apple. They do jack **** and receive 30% of all iOS sales.

 

Sometimes I'm baffled by how little the "experts" know about the **** they invest in.

 

It's likely Apple is going to make as much from Pokemon Go as Nintendo does and they literally did absolutely nothing and are not involved with the game in any way.

[Willihammer]

Over the weekend I watched Boom Bust Boom and The Big Short in succession.

 

Word of advice to anyone holding stocks or index funds, don't do that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Over the weekend I watched Boom Bust Boom and The Big Short in succession.

 

Word of advice to anyone holding stocks or index funds, don't do that.

 

Terrible advice. Where would you put your money? in a mattress?

[Willihammer]

 

Terrible advice. Where would you put your money? in a mattress?

That was a joke, they're both really good shows. But after watching them I've started to think I've been a little reckless with my savings yeah.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That was a joke, they're both really good shows. But after watching them I've started to think I've been a little reckless with my savings yeah.

 

Ah, got it. Always hard to tell.

 

Yes, investments come with risk. Yes, the wealthy and powerful and others will do everything they can to manipulate the system to milk it (and us) for every penny.

[Mike Sixel]

Still considering getting back in NFLX, since I am "playing" with a bit of money as bets.....

 

EDIT:

Fascinating, it is trading within pennies of when I bailed......so maybe not.

 

 

 

And, even though I HATE doing this, I might just have to cash in on NVIDIA, the stock is much higher than I ever thought it would go.....

Edited July 26, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Willihammer]

Would you consider selling a covered call? Could generate some income from it that way and continue to hold.

[Willihammer]

One of the NFLX directors bought 600k shares over the last three days so its getting a bump.

 

I hold NFLX and will continue holding. Its programming is expanding into French, Japanese, etc. and I can think of no good reason viewers in those places wouldn't soak it up just as people here soak up the English language shows.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Would you consider selling a covered call? Could generate some income from it that way and continue to hold.

 

I did consider this......haven't decided.

[Mike Sixel]

 

One of the NFLX directors bought 600k shares over the last three days so its getting a bump.

 

I hold NFLX and will continue holding. Its programming is expanding into French, Japanese, etc. and I can think of no good reason viewers in those places wouldn't soak it up just as people here soak up the English language shows.

 

Ya, the cash I have now might be needed for a house in 9-12 months, so I'm more into "safe" or short term items (I've never been in this position before, so a bit paralyzed).

[joethastud]

 

You should take your money and put it in the statfreak 1 on 1 baseball camp, I hear they are prime for a large expansion nationwide soon!

 

Is this a joke from BYTO?  I don't remember.  Its been like 10 years now?

[gunnarthor]

 

Ya, the cash I have now might be needed for a house in 9-12 months, so I'm more into "safe" or short term items (I've never been in this position before, so a bit paralyzed).

The few times we've known we'd need money in less than a year, we've just dumped into a CD. It doesn't make much money, really, but it's safe.  The one exception was about a year ago.  We dumped 10k into HSI thinking that the Court would uphold Obamacare and the stock would spike.  It did but we held it hoping to hold for a year (so lower taxes) and it bottomed out.  I think we technically lost about 200 dollars on that.  So we just should have done the CD.

[Willihammer]

Any thoughts on Twitter? Its down big today and trading near a 52 week low.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Any thoughts on Twitter? Its down big today and trading near a 52 week low.

 

the only way I like Twitter is if you think someone will buy them

[Willihammer]

 

the only way I like Twitter is if you think someone will buy them

That seems to be the consensus, from what I've read.

 

I wonder how cheap it has to get before someone deems it worth buying out. Back in 2014 this source thought its brand value alone was worth $14b. Today the company is only valued at $11B.

 

http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/google-beats-apple-list-world-s-most-valuable-brands-157868

[Mike Sixel]

 

That seems to be the consensus, from what I've read.

 

I wonder how cheap it has to get before someone deems it worth buying out. Back in 2014 this source thought its brand value alone was worth $14b. Today the company is only valued at $11B.

 

http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/google-beats-apple-list-world-s-most-valuable-brands-157868

 

Nothing compared to Yahoo's drop.......