Instead of Tulowitzki, I Might Rather Grab...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Let's not overrate team control of prospects.  Let's throw in Duffey, Gonsalves and Pinto.  Now there is 34 years of team control.  How can they say no?.

Notice I said "good young players", not "young players".

 

Gibson is turning into a nice piece, particularly if he continues to strike out hitters.

 

Berrios is a top 20-30 prospect who is on the cusp of entering MLB.

 

Rosario has a few more question marks but because he's capable of playing good up-the-middle defense, he doesn't need to hit a lot to have a lot of value.

 

It's one thing to give up a lot of talent for someone like Hamels. It's another thing entirely to give up that much talent when it's already in MLB or on the cusp of breaking into MLB. If you want to improve the team, give up talent that is going to help you down the road, not talent that is helping today or will help tomorrow (as in, could literally be "tomorrow").

 

That's enough talent to start rebuilding a franchise in a hurry and right now, I think that's too much for the Twins to give a 31 year old pitcher when they're clearly the second-best team in the division and Hamels won't change that fact.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

maybe take Rosario out and put in a mid range prospect?

Berrios and Gibson for Hamels essentially (nolasco as salary relief, or not) would be a no brainier for the Twins and provide enough upside to the Phils I think.

Hamels
Hughes
Santana
May

Would be a real nice start to a rotation for the next few years.

As I said in my last post, I'm not against giving up talent but I'd want that talent to fit into specific categories before I traded it:

 

1. Is not helping the team right now

2. Will not help the team in the next 12 months

3. Is superfluous due to organizational depth

 

If you acquire a pitcher of Hamels' talent level, either Gibson or Berrios might be expendable... But not both of them. The goal is to improve the rotation as a unit, not sacrifice multiple spots to fill one. The net gain there is probably negligible and might actually be in the negative as soon as 2016 or 2017. That's a bad foundation on which to build a long-term contender.

 

Rosario is probably expendable but he's helping the team right now. While I'm not against trading him, I'd prefer to do it this offseason and sacrifice as few 2015 wins as possible.

 

Gibson and Rosario have combined for 1.9 fWAR. In Rosario's case, that's a partial season of just 260 PAs. 

 

Cole Hamels has contributed for 2.7 fWAR.

 

I know WAR doesn't exactly translate across league and position but it's a useful tool to gauge whether it's likely you'll see a net gain from a player acquisition. In this case, it's less than 1 WAR, which tells me that if a gain is seen, it's likely to be a small one.

 

Remove any possible contribution by Berrios in 2016 and I don't see this deal working for the Twins. If they were truly on the verge of breaking through in 2015 and challenging the Royals, I might feel differently about it but I look at two teams and see one that is more refined, talented, and built for a postseason run than the other. Cole Hamels moves the needle but not enough that I'd be willing to part with all those good, young players for him.

 

And again, the Twins can keep all those players, pick up a SS and a catcher for less, and pretty easily cover that one win improvement in 2015 (assuming Hamels is worth one win through the rest of the season).

 

We need to stop being fascinated with a name and think about where the biggest team can be found for the least amount of money/prospects. Those gains will be found in the bullpen, shortstop, and catcher.

[USAFChief]

Notice I said "good young players", not "young players".

 

Gibson is turning into a nice piece, particularly if he continues to strike out hitters.

 

Berrios is a top 20-30 prospect who is on the cusp of entering MLB.

 

Rosario has a few more question marks but because he's capable of playing good up-the-middle defense, he doesn't need to hit a lot to have a lot of value.

 

It's one thing to give up a lot of talent for someone like Hamels. It's another thing entirely to give up that much talent when it's already in MLB or on the cusp of breaking into MLB. If you want to improve the team, give up talent that is going to help you down the road, not talent that is helping today or will help tomorrow (as in, could literally be "tomorrow").

 

That's enough talent to start rebuilding a franchise in a hurry and right now, I think that's too much for the Twins to give a 31 year old pitcher when they're clearly the second-best team in the division and Hamels won't change that fact.

Isn't this pretty similar to your take on KC a couple years so, when they gave up too much good young talent for Shields?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Isn't this pretty similar to your take on KC a couple years so, when they gave up too much good young talent for Shields?

It worked out for KC the second season with Shields but it sure didn't work out for them the first season.

 

I'd prefer to skip that first season when trading away talent.

 

I keep saying it over and over again... The 2015 Twins are simply not that good a baseball team. One name is not going to fix their problems (especially when that name plays at a position of relative team strength). People are too fascinated with a name and not fascinated enough with the gaping holes at catcher, short, and the bullpen. Sure, the Twins can fill one, maybe all three, of those holes (unlikey) but they're not going to fill all those holes and acquire the best SS (Tulowitski) or the best SP (Hamels) on the market.

 

It's not like this is a great (or even very good) team with a few holes. This is a team that is not very good at anything they do. They're not particularly good in the rotation. They're pretty horrible in the bullpen. They're not particularly good at scoring runs. They're not good at hitting for average. They're not very disciplined at the plate. They're not making good use of their team speed. They're not very good at preventing runs in the field.

 

Sure, they had one great month of baseball. I enjoyed the hell out of that month... But there's a reason why they're way under .500 outside of that single month. This isn't a team that likely wins the World Series because they have Cole Hamels on it. This is a team with multiple flaws that are too great to fix in a single deadline.

 

So, shore up the biggest holes, hope for lightning to strike, don't be surprised if it doesn't, and prepare to make real fixes to your biggest problems in the offseason when it's not only easier to do it but often cheaper to do it.

 

I saw all of these issues before the past nine games but after seeing the Twins flounder against some of the better teams in the AL, I don't see how it could be any more obvious the Twins are not built to win in the 2015 postseason. They don't have the horses and one name doesn't change that fact.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This team was 20-7 in May. A whopping .689 winning percentage.

 

Outside May, the team is 32-39. An ugly .405 winning percentage. Past winning percentages include:

 

2014: .432

2013: .407

2012: .407

2011: .389

 

Which of those two winning percentages looks more like the Twins? It sure ain't that .689 number.

 

I don't understand how some people see that and say "go for it" at the expense of young players. I prefer my teams built on talent, not luck.

[DaveW]

Hamels for Gibson and Berrios makes sense because you instantly have one of the better staffs in baseball with:

Hamels

Santana

Hughes

may

 

As far as 5th pitcher goes you have any number of guys such as: Milone, Graham, Meyer, Hu, Duffey in the next couple years.

 

Hamels is a legit top of the rotation bonfied ace and almost a guarantee that you win every time he is on the mound. Gibson is mid rotation tops, and more likely then not that's where Berrios ends up slotting in at as well.

[DaveW]

This team was 20-7 in May. A whopping .689 winning percentage.

 

Outside May, the team is 32-39. An ugly .405 winning percentage. Past winning percentages include:

 

2014: .432

2013: .407

2012: .407

2011: .389

 

Which of those two winning percentages looks more like the Twins? It sure ain't that .689 number.

 

I don't understand how some people see that and say "go for it" at the expense of young players. I prefer my teams built on talent, not luck.

The Twins are 3 games ahead in the playoff race with a couple months left to go in the season. That is why people are saying "go for it"

[DaveW]

Also it can't be emphasized enough that a guy like Tulo or Hamels not only helps immensely this year, but over the next few years as well. Which is why I'm not saying to go out and get a David Price type.

[Mike Sixel]

And how do they fix those holes next year, since there are no SS or C in FA, without a big trade? This is the same FO that built this RP corps, you really think they'll actually try young guys, or try re-treads again?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hamels for Gibson and Berrios makes sense because you instantly have one of the better staffs in baseball with:
Hamels
Santana
Hughes
may

As far as 5th pitcher goes you have any number of guys such as: Milone, Graham, Meyer, Hu, Duffey in the next couple years.

Hamels is a legit top of the rotation bonfied ace and almost a guarantee that you win every time he is on the mound. Gibson is mid rotation tops, and more likely then not that's where Berrios ends up slotting in at as well.

I look at that rotation and it instills very little confidence.

 

Hamels and Santana are going into their age 32/33 seasons. Hughes is getting good results but it's not based on solid peripherals. May is good but far from a sure thing.

 

Is that a good playoff rotation in 2015? No, because Santana can't participate in the postseason. Is it a good rotation in 2016? Yeah, probably but it's built on three pitchers in their 30s. That... makes me uncomfortable.

[DaveW]

And how do they fix those holes next year, since there are no SS or C in FA, without a big trade? This is the same FO that built this RP corps, you really think they'll actually try young guys, or try re-treads again?

I think they only need to "fix" one of the positions, one black hole in the lineup is fine, two is where things start getting ugly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins are 3 games ahead in the playoff race with a couple months left to go in the season. That is why people are saying "go for it"

And that would make more sense if the Twins actually looked like a good team.

[Mike Sixel]

BTW, not trying to get better is a self-fulfilling prophecy. When they fail this year, everyone that didn't want a trade will say "see, they weren't good".

[DaveW]

And that would make more sense if the Twins actually looked like a good team.

they are also two non blown Perkins saves this week away from being 5 up.

I think the twins do look like a good team, especially with the emergence of Hicks and Sano over the past month.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And how do they fix those holes next year, since there are no SS or C in FA, without a big trade? This is the same FO that built this RP corps, you really think they'll actually try young guys, or try re-treads again?

I'm not against a big trade. I could see the Tulo deal working under the right circumstances.

 

I'm also in favor of going after Lucroy or maybe even Wieters if it makes sense.

 

But Hamels? No, man, no. Why?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think they only need to "fix" one of the positions, one black hole in the lineup is fine, two is where things start getting ugly.

 

And how do they do that w/o a big trade? Brock only wants good players with years of control......those require, you know, lots of value going the other way. There are no good SS or C in FA next year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not against a big trade. I could see the Tulo deal working under the right circumstances.

 

I'm also in favor of going after Lucroy or maybe even Wieters if it makes sense.

 

But Hamels? No, man, no. Why?

 

I'm not arguing for Hamels, no way.

 

Tulo or Lucroy, heck yes.

[DaveW]

I'm not against a big trade. I could see the Tulo deal working under the right circumstances.

 

I'm also in favor of going after Lucroy or maybe even Wieters if it makes sense.

 

But Hamels? No, man, no. Why?

because he is an ace and makes the team instantly better?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

they are also two non blown Perkins saves this week away from being 5 up.
I think the twins do look like a good team, especially with the emergence of Hicks and Sano over the past month.

Perkins doesn't even come into one of those games if the rest of the bullpen isn't a joke.

 

One dominant closer does not a bullpen make. Perkins is good but he's going to make mistakes.

 

And the Twins can't close even most of their holes without completely blowing up the farm. Does anyone really want to see that happen in 2015?

[DaveW]

You can easily fix the bullpen without giving up anyone of value, Benoit for basically a PTNbL, ditto with trading for AJ.

 

There, two "holes" solved without blowing up the farm.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

because he is an ace and makes the team instantly better?

Does he play shortstop, catcher, and fill three positions in the bullpen?

 

Then it doesn't really matter.

 

The Twins have horrible, gaping holes at multiple positions. Picking up a starter doesn't solve any of their real problems.

[DaveW]

Again, you can trade for hamels, and go get Benoit and AJ for next to nothing. Hell, make them toss in Papelbon with Hamels and you suddenly only have one hole (SS)

[Mike Sixel]

apparently the FO doesn't agree that the bullpen is terrible, since they have rolled with it (other than tinkering on the edges) all year. You must be wrong Brock, because they are the experts.

[DaveW]

Ryan said yesterday that they need a power arm, I am 90% sure they will acquire at least one bullpen arm this week

[HitInAPinch]

Hamels, Lecroy and Tulowitzki trades.  Ever notice none of their current teams are making Twins counter offers? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Again, you can trade for hamels, and go get Benoit and AJ for next to nothing. Hell, make them toss in Papelbon with Hamels and you suddenly only have one hole (SS)

Instead of shuffling a dozen deck chairs (a la the 2014 Athletics), why don't you just skip right to the biggest problems and find a way to acquire Tulo or Lucroy? It makes way more sense to keep your good, young players at a position of relative strength and acquire pieces that fill the biggest holes for the longest period of time possible.

[DaveW]

One could argue that the twins biggest weakness moving foward is the lack of a true ace. None currently on the roster and none currently in the minor leagues.

 

I'm good with either Tulo or Hamels. I'm lukewarm on Lucroy due to his price to get him and his injury/concern for large regression since he plays catcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

One could argue that the twins biggest weakness moving foward is the lack of a true ace.

I don't agree with that at all. The Twins don't need an ace, they need a guy who pitches like one at the right time. The Royals made it to game seven of the World Series without a bonafide "ace". They had two very good pitchers and one of them was terrible last postseason. The other guy has been pretty bad this season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ryan said yesterday that they need a power arm, I am 90% sure they will acquire at least one bullpen arm this week

 

They've traded for and drafted power arms for three years now.......May is in the bullpen, and is a power arm, isn't he?

[DaveW]

They've traded for and drafted power arms for three years now.......May is in the bullpen, and is a power arm, isn't he?

may isn't a bullpen guy for much longer methinks