Taking a look at Mega Hunk Joe Mauer's Numbers

[DaveW]

Mauer has come up very "clutch" this season when it counts, but it seems that when it isn't a big moment Mauer has looked very pedestrian which has been strange, one thought that came to my mind is that with runners on, especially in scoring position teams are:

 

A.) Much more likely to give Mauer something to hit.

B.)Much less likely to do extreme defensive shifts.

 

Few numbers that pop out:

Mauer with RISP: .400/.500/.489 (989 OPS!)  58 PA

Mauer in "High Levare bRef): ..481/.581!/.840!! (1.421 OPS!) 31 PA

Mauer with runners on: .387/.406/.500 (.906 OPS) 90 total PA

Mauer with no runners on: .188/.212/.271    99 total PA

 

Not the hugest sample sizes obviously, but a 400+ difference in OPS between runners on vs no runners on signals to me that something is going on with Mauer's approach to the plate. I would like someone smarter then me (Parker) to add his two cents, is this all due to teams extreme shifts on Mauer when there aren't runners on? Then playing him more straight up with runners on?

If that is the case I am very confident Mauer will be fine moving forward, Mauer if nothing else is a very smart and disciplined hitter, I would have to think he would be able to make adjustments eventually when the shifts are put on, no? Also with the expanded strike zone, I am confident he will be able to make adjustments as well. IMHO all signs point to Mauer breaking out of his "no runners on" funk and becoming a

Any other thoughts?

 

Also I know USAFChief has been harping on moving Mauer out of the 3 hole, but these numbers show that for whatever its worth Mauer has been doing his job as a middle of the order bat (which is to bring in runs) and shouldn't be moved for now.

 

Notes: Career wise Mauer has a .902 OPS with runners on vs a .815 with bases empty. .936 with RISP

-In 2014 Mauer a .658 OPS with bases empty, .834 with runners on and a .933 with RISP

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

For the record, Imentioned moving him once, in a game thread.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Mega Hunk Joe Mauer.  That takes me back a few years Dave.  Perhaps we should find Dan and have him post a thing or two just for fun

[DaveW]

Mega Hunk Joe Mauer. That takes me back a few years Dave. Perhaps we should find Dan and have him post a thing or two just for fun

I saw him ranting and raving on a twins (official) Facebook post a few months ago, was hilarious. Him, Stat and Itstime were some awesome characters.

[zchrz]

I think hes trying to pull the ball with no one on, and hes just not very good at pulling the ball.  His swing generates no backspin and little loft so usually when he squares a pitch up its a laser somewhere, that laser has a better chance to find turf if its slicing into the gap in left opposed to right at the right fielder. 

 

When he really needs a hit hes reverting to inside outing it and having normal Mauer successes.  Ill take 10 singles the other way over 2 doubles to right.  The rbis are there because Dozier and Hunter are there to be driven in, he can do that with his old successful approach just fine.

[DaveW]

 

I think hes trying to pull the ball with no one on, and hes just not very good at pulling the ball.  His swing generates no backspin and little loft so usually when he squares a pitch up its a laser somewhere, that laser has a better chance to find turf if its slicing into the gap in left opposed to right at the right fielder. 

 

When he really needs a hit hes reverting to inside outing it and having normal Mauer successes.  Ill take 10 singles the other way over 2 doubles to right.  The rbis are there because Dozier and Hunter are there to be driven in, he can do that with his old successful approach just fine.

But the problem is if he doesn't pull it,the shift is eating him alive, no?

[Mike Sixel]

Sorted to "ignore" defense......

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

[DaveW]

 

Sorted to "ignore" defense......

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

With men on base he has the 2nd highest BA amongst 1st baseman and comes in at #7 amongst first baseman in the same stat you are referring to wRC+

 

So again, what is going on here?
 

[zchrz]

 

But the problem is if he doesn't pull it,the shift is eating him alive, no?

 

Seems like he had more success hitting into the shift than he has had trying to pull it.  I haven't watched all the games but I can think of 2 times he has pulled the ball with authority (the homer and the bases clearing double into the gap).  Pretty much everything else pulled is already the grounder to 2nd they shift him for.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With men on base he has the 2nd highest BA amongst 1st baseman and comes in at #7 amongst first baseman in the same stat you are referring to wRC+

 

So again, what is going on here?
 

Sample size?  Just eyeballing your link and mike's, Chris Carter and Mike Napoli have a similar overall vs men-on-base split right now.  Others perhaps too (Freddie Freeman has a big jump with men on base too, just coming from a higher starting point).

 

EDIT TO ADD: Looking closer, 7 guys on that list have a larger positive differential than the worst negative differential -- the above mentioned four, plus Goldschmidt, 

Solarte (he's playing 1B?!), and Encarnacion.  Average differential over all 29 guys is +16 in wRC+.

 

Given that we're talking men on base samples less than 100 PA for most of these guys, I don't know that you can or should try to explain away the differences.

[DaveW]

 

Sample size?  Just eyeballing your link and mike's, Chris Carter and Mike Napoli have a similar overall vs men-on-base split right now.  Others perhaps too (Freddie Freeman has a big jump with men on base too, just coming from a higher starting point).

It could be, but as mentioned in the OP the discrepancy is very large (.400+ OPS points) and even last year it was almost a .200 point discrepancy, career wise it is .082 for him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It could be, but as mentioned in the OP the discrepancy is very large (.400+ OPS points) and even last year it was almost a .200 point discrepancy, career wise it is .082 for him.

And I am saying, that kind of discrepancy isn't unusual for a small sample.  Napoli, Freeman, and Goldschmidt all have similarly large discrepancies over both 2014 and 2015.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sample size?  Just eyeballing your link and mike's, Chris Carter and Mike Napoli have a similar overall vs men-on-base split right now.  Others perhaps too (Freddie Freeman has a big jump with men on base too, just coming from a higher starting point).

 

EDIT TO ADD: Looking closer, 7 guys on that list have a larger positive differential than the worst negative differential -- the above mentioned four, plus Goldschmidt, 

Solarte (he's playing 1B?!), and Encarnacion.  Average differential over all 29 guys is +16 in wRC+.

 

Given that we're talking men on base samples less than 100 PA for most of these guys, I don't know that you can or should try to explain away the differences.

While I agree that it's too early to draw rash conclusions, this type of performance isn't new to Joe Mauer, it's merely exaggerated this season.

 

For his career, Joe has a +.122 OPS with RISP versus bases empty. He has a +.088 OPS with Men On versus bases empty.

 

That's absurd. He has routinely defied conventional SABR wisdom throughout his career, this year he's simply defying it with a little more panache.

 

What does that mean? I have no idea.

[Mike Sixel]

It means you REALLY want a high OBP player in front of him......BADLY.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

While I agree that it's too early to draw rash conclusions, this type of performance isn't new to Joe Mauer, it's merely exaggerated this season.

 

For his career, Joe has a +.122 OPS with RISP versus bases empty. He has a +.088 OPS with Men On versus bases empty.

 

That's absurd. He has routinely defied conventional SABR wisdom throughout his career, this year he's simply defying it with a little more panache.

 

What does that mean? I have no idea.

What conventional SABR wisdom is that?  The league as a whole hits better in those situations, and other batters have similar career split differentials as Mauer too -- Freeman and Goldschmidt, to name two from earlier in this thread with big 2014-2015 differentials too.

 

Randomly looking at a batter with similar career length to Mauer, Morneau also has similar differentials: +.077 with RISP, +.106 with men on base (as compared to bases empty).

 

I don't know if it's really that absurd at all.