Sano & Buxton

[gunnarthor]

 

Thank god that Buxton has started tearing the cover off the ball lately. That's very encouraging to see. Sano however.... is a struggle bus. Any concerns from anyone else he could be the next Adam Dunn?

No.  As others have noted, his krate and bb rates are pretty good and his babip is unreasonably low.  He missed all of last year.  It'll take time to shake off his rust as well.  Let's wait until the break before we freak out too much.

[tobi0040]

 

Thank god that Buxton has started tearing the cover off the ball lately. That's very encouraging to see. Sano however.... is a struggle bus. Any concerns from anyone else he could be the next Adam Dunn?

 

I think we have to be careful about the negative Dunn comp.   The guy hit 462 HR, 35th all time.  40th all time in BB's. 135th all time in slugging, 150th all time in OPS. 

 

6 seasons of over 40 HR.  10 of over 30 HR. 8 seasons of over 100 BB's

 

If Sano put those numbers up at 3B, he would be 15th all time in slugging for 3B and 6th in HR's.  If that is his floor, we should be in for a good ride.

[2wins87]

 

Thank god that Buxton has started tearing the cover off the ball lately. That's very encouraging to see. Sano however.... is a struggle bus. Any concerns from anyone else he could be the next Adam Dunn?

 

Worried that the Twins will stick him in the outfield and allow him to accumulate -30 dWAR over his career?

 

A Dunn-like career at the plate would be a good outcome for Sano.  34 oWAR over a career is very good. We might hope for a bit more but we also might get a bit less.  He'll definitely hit homeruns and he's shown he can and will draw walks.

 

I'm not really worried that the Twins won't get some productive years at the plate from him.  It's not clear how much of a defensive liability he'll be or if he'll crush at an All-star level or just at a regular level.

[tobi0040]

 

Worried that the Twins will stick him in the outfield and allow him to accumulate -30 dWAR over his career?

 

A Dunn-like career at the plate would be a good outcome for Sano.  34 oWAR over a career is very good. We might hope for a bit more but we also might get a bit less.  He'll definitely hit homeruns and he's shown he can and will draw walks.

 

I'm not really worried that the Twins won't get some productive years at the plate from him.  It's not clear how much of a defensive liability he'll be or if he'll crush at an All-star level or just at a regular level.

 

If he sticks at 3B with those numbers, the oWAR will be much higher.  Dunn was a corner OF, then DH and 1B for quite some time. 

 

Sano does have 5 errors already this year though.

[Vanimal46]

The reason Adam Dunn came to my mind thinking of Sano is that he was typically a HR or bust kind of guy with a high amount of strikeouts every year. If I remember right Dunn has the MLB record for K's in a season?

 

If Sano could be a .250-.270 hitter with 35+ HRs I think that's a win for the Twins. But the pathetic average in AA has me concerned a little bit.

[tobi0040]

 

The reason Adam Dunn came to my mind thinking of Sano is that he was typically a HR or bust kind of guy with a high amount of strikeouts every year. If I remember right Dunn has the MLB record for K's in a season?

If Sano could be a .250-.270 hitter with 35+ HRs I think that's a win for the Twins. But the pathetic average in AA has me concerned a little bit.

 

Dunn was the type of guy that either walked, k'd, hit a HR or 2B.  Not a lot of slap hits the other way or groun outs to short.  I have made a similar point in the past, that Sano may profile as that type of hitter versus say a Miguel Cabrera, that is going to hit .310-.320 while hitting 35 HR and 120 RBI.  He just isn't going to be that type of guy.

 

 

[kab21]

I will be happy if Sano becomes Adam Dunn and hits 35+ HR with a .375 OBP.  It would be a bit of a bonus if he was marginally useful somewhere in the field.  But I think it's a lazy comp for a prospect based on the stats of a 20 yr old (this year's stats are meaningless so far) playing in AA.