Reusse: Don't Rule Out JR Graham

[Seth Stohs]

Patrick Reusse, while in Ft. Myers recently, chatted with Twins Rule 5 pick JR Graham. Of course, as a Rule 5 pick, he will have to not only make the Twins opening day roster, but remain on the roster throughout the 2015 season or be offered back to Atlanta. 

 

Reusse introduces us to the 5-11 right-hander with a the big fastball who came back from shoulder injury in 2014. He explained why 9/11 meant a lot to Graham even though he was just 5-11. 

 

You can read the article here. 

[DocBauer]

No question there is real talent with Graham, and real potential. And who knows, he may come in lights out, throw bullets, and there's no looking back. But I still see him as a long shot.

 

 

Figuring Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Stauffer as locks or virtual locks...though I'm still very skeptical about Stauffer...that leaves only two spots left to fill, assuming a 7 man bullpen. May, Meyer, Pelfrey, Pressley, Tonkin, Achter, Oliveros are all legitimate candidates, as might be Powell, in addition to Graham. I know the team is in retool mode, if not rebuild, but can they afford, and would they, to keep someone as a stash at this point?

[Seth Stohs]

Figuring Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Stauffer as locks or virtual locks...though I'm still very skeptical about Stauffer...that leaves only two spots left to fill, assuming a 7 man bullpen. May, Meyer, Pelfrey, Pressley, Tonkin, Achter, Oliveros are all legitimate candidates, as might be Powell, in addition to Graham. I know the team is in retool mode, if not rebuild, but can they afford, and would they, to keep someone as a stash at this point?

 

 

Why skeptical about Stauffer? He's absolutely a given. 

 

Who is Powell?

[nicksaviking]

He said Stauffer was a lock. I assumed he was skeptical about his ability. The team hasn't done well with NL converts lately with Jared Burton's first year an exception.

[DocBauer]

LOL! Sorry. Of course, I meant Pryor. Typing way too late and too tired and didn't pay attention to auto correction. I believe Stauffer is an initial given. I'm just skeptical at this point as to what he will actually bring. He just might be a strong and experienced middle and long arm, but I just have this nagging voice in the back of my head that says away from the NL and his home park he's not going to make it.

[DocBauer]

He said Stauffer was a lock. I assumed he was skeptical about his ability. The team hasn't done well with NL converts lately with Jared Burton's first year an exception.

Yep

[Seth Stohs]

LOL! Sorry. Of course, I meant Pryor. Typing way too late and too tired and didn't pay attention to auto correction. I believe Stauffer is an initial given. I'm just skeptical at this point as to what he will actually bring. He just might be a strong and experienced middle and long arm, but I just have this nagging voice in the back of my head that says away from the NL and his home park he's not going to make it.

 

 

Sorry, I just couldn't figure out who it might be and figured I missed some late signing.

 

Stauffer will be fine. He's been solid for awhile. Assuming health, he can be a decent reliever. I don't know what to expect. ERA in the low 3s, decent K rate. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't get to excited about Stauffer, I think ERA rises a healthy bit and the Ks drop a ton away from the NL and Petco.

 

I suppose his ceiling could be Matt Guerrier in his prime? That's pretty good I guess though like Doc, I'm skeptical. I'll probably need to see more NL pitchers get the job done with the Twins before I stop giving them all a red flag from the start.

[h2oface]

There is a reason that Graham wasn't protected by the Braves. He is no where ready to hold down a spot in an MLB bullpen or rotation.  To give him a spot all year would be a waste for any team.  That doesn't mean that he may comeback, and he may develop (or may reinjure his arm). He is a giant question mark. To make the Twins roster a 24 man roster plus Graham all year with all the prospects in the mix would not be a decision I could get behind. 

[Jham]

What he command in a trade if we liked what we saw?  

[Seth Stohs]

There is a reason that Graham wasn't protected by the Braves. He is no where ready to hold down a spot in an MLB bullpen or rotation.  To give him a spot all year would be a waste for any team.  That doesn't mean that he may comeback, and he may develop (or may reinjure his arm). He is a giant question mark. To make the Twins roster a 24 man roster plus Graham all year with all the prospects in the mix would not be a decision I could get behind. 

 

But... What If he is back at 100% and throwing 97-98 with good secondary stuff? That's a guy I would certainly want to keep around. It's worth a shot. I don't know if he's a long shot or what, but we should get a couple of weeks of bullpens and a handful of spring outings before we come up with any definitives. 

[Seth Stohs]

I don't get to excited about Stauffer, I think ERA rises a healthy bit and the Ks drop a ton away from the NL and Petco.

 

I suppose his ceiling could be Matt Guerrier in his prime? That's pretty good I guess though like Doc, I'm skeptical. I'll probably need to see more NL pitchers get the job done with the Twins before I stop giving them all a red flag from the start.

 

I would take Matt Guerrier in his prime in the 7th inning any time. 

 

Also, regarding his K-rate, it's been close to or just over 9 per 9 the last two years strictly out of the bullpen. Without looking, I'm guessing he didn't face a ton of pitchers coming out of the bullpen. 

[jorgenswest]

Stauffer is 33. He is not in his prime. He worked low leverage situations at Petco Park. Away from Petco, he is not a good pitcher. If the Twins see him as a given to make the roster, they are fools.

 

The contract itself should be a sign that the league outside of Minnesota does not see Stauffer as a good late inning option. The going rate for a good set up man is multiple years at more than 5 million per.

 

If they believe Graham has upside and they see the velocity, releasing Stauffer must be an option.

[nicksaviking]

I would take Matt Guerrier in his prime in the 7th inning any time. 

 

Also, regarding his K-rate, it's been close to or just over 9 per 9 the last two years strictly out of the bullpen. Without looking, I'm guessing he didn't face a ton of pitchers coming out of the bullpen.

 

You're probably right that there likely should be no reason for a K drop off, but we've grown accustomed to it around here. Maybe it will hold up, it just isn't typical numbers for a righty who throws 91 mph. If he is Guerrier in his prime it striking out a batter an inning, he'll be a good asset.

 

I think Graham sticks if he's throwing gas and his control isn't off the charts bad.

[HitInAPinch]

At 5'11" you don't have much body to soak up the wear and tear that throwing that hard has on a body.  JR has had some shoulder issues in the past.  But he was being used as a started by the Braves.  I hope he makes it!

[jorgenswest]

I would take Matt Guerrier in his prime in the 7th inning any time. 

 

Also, regarding his K-rate, it's been close to or just over 9 per 9 the last two years strictly out of the bullpen. Without looking, I'm guessing he didn't face a ton of pitchers coming out of the bullpen.

 

I can think of three reasons why his strikeout rate might drop.

 

Petco Park is number 2 in park factor for strikeouts at 1.08. As for Stauffer over his career his strike out is more than 20% better at Petco. Two years ago as a reliever it was 20% greater and last year 14% greater.

 

Target Field depresses strikeouts by about 3%.

 

At his age, strike out rates are in decline.

 

Since he was in mostly low leverage situations last year, he did get to face 11 pitchers. He was perfect against them. He struck out three and accounted for 3.2 innings. Without those pitcher innings his ERA changes from 3.50 to 3.72.

[Thrylos]

Yeah, the Twins will give JR a shot.

 

Back of my mind tells me that they have more than 12 pitchers with either no options left, or who they might consider as "given" (like Fien & Thielbar, god forbid.)  Nothing to lose, they can always work out trades.

 

I am just concerned that a. they did not realize that their pen had the second worst xFIP in the majors (the rotation had the fourth worst) and b. they will keep pitchers who are part of the problem (like the 2 aforementioned, for starters.)   This pen needs a lot of work and everything should be up on the air right now, with no scholarships.  Kinda concerned that  Burdi and Reed did not invited, to tell you the truth.   I think that Stauffer will be an upgrade over Swarzak for the swingman role...

[jorgenswest]

Agree with everything above from Thrylos. I would add that while Stauffer may be an upgrade over Swarzak, that isn't a high leverage roster spot. It isn't a roster spot that will have a significant impact on the record. It might be better to develop a younger player with upside in that role even if the performance drops. A drop in performance might simply mean turning a few losses into bigger losses.

[Seth Stohs]

I'll never understand Thrylos's disdain for Fien and Thielbar. All Thielbar has done for two seasons is find a way to get people out. Same thing for Fien, with the exception of last September. 

 

That's not to say they'll be great, or even good, in 2015. No way to know that with any certainty. But they have been pretty strong the last two years.

[Thrylos]

I'll never understand Thrylos's disdain for Fien and Thielbar. All Thielbar has done for two seasons is find a way to get people out. Same thing for Fien, with the exception of last September. 

 

That's not to say they'll be great, or even good, in 2015. No way to know that with any certainty. But they have been pretty strong the last two years.

 

Disdain is not a good way to describe what I feel about them

 

Heck, disdain, is not a good way to describe even what I feel about Gardy n Andy

 

The problem I have (and it is not with them, it is with the people who play them in high leverage situations - that would be the Gardy n Andy) is that they are pretty much replacement level players who get people out when their BABIPs are approaching .200, but are getting shelled, when approaching .300.   Poster boys of mediocrity. 

 

And if you are going to use those 2 as your key relievers before you go to a closer (who last season was as shaky as Yesterday Eddie,) you will not win.

 

Yeah.  I do have a disdain for losing...