Predicting MLB players

[Mike Sixel]

Please note, this article CLEARLY states you need scouting and stats......please don't turn this into a "stats heads no nothing compared to scouts" discussion.....or do, just don't expect me to come back then......

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-a-hitters-major-league-performance-with-minor-league-stats/

 

This is an interesting study looking at minor league stats and MLB careers. It points out something I've always suspected, walk rates in the low minors don't mean much. No real surprise Sano and Buxton don't make the list, they haven't really played in AA yet......which makes me wonder why everyone is so sure they'll both be in MN this year, frankly.

[Willihammer]

Here's how Katoh ranks the Twins prospects by projected WAR through age 28:

 

Rank Name WAR through age 28

1 Jorge Polanco 2.7

2 Aaron Hicks 2.5

3 Kennys Vargas 2.5

4 Byron Buxton 2.3

5 Josmil Pinto 2.2

6 Danny Santana 2.1

7 Zach Larson 1.9

8 Eddie Rosario 1.7

9 Daniel Ortiz 1.4

10 Travis Harrison 1.2

 

Last summer I used the Javier system developed by Chris St John at Beyond the Boxscore to come up with a position prospect ranking. Luckily I saved the results, the post isn't readable anymore http://twinsdaily.com/blog/277/entry-5221-twins-top-19-position-prospects-as-ranked-by-javier/

 

Basically, Javier ranked the Twins top prospects in the following order of most likely to be "productive" players (defined as "At least 1,000 PA in the majors and at least .0275 VORP per PA."), based on their age-level-statistics in 2013 in the minors.

 

1 Jorge Polanco

2 Byron Buxton

3 Travis Harrison

4 Max Kepler

5 Aaron Hicks

6 Eddie Rosario

7 Brian Navarreto

8 Zach Larson

10 JD Williams

 

*Sano broke Javier because his zISO for a 20 year old in the Eastern League in 2013 was 4.1 standard deviations from the mean and there were no MLB players in the population to compare him to.

 

As you can see, Polanco gets love from both systems. Hicks and Buxton are in the top 5 of each, Rosario, Larson, and Harrison crack the top 10 in both systems. Not any overlap after that.

[Steven Buhr]

Interesting (and encouraging) to see Larson on both lists. His 2014 was pretty much ruined with an injury early in April. Hope to see him come back really strong next summer.

[Paul Pleiss]

ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST FOR AARON HICKS! Praise the lord!

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks for the other information. Interesting, but not totally surprising, how similar the results are. 

[gunnarthor]

Please note, this article CLEARLY states you need scouting and stats......please don't turn this into a "stats heads no nothing compared to scouts" discussion.....or do, just don't expect me to come back then......

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-a-hitters-major-league-performance-with-minor-league-stats/

 

This is an interesting study looking at minor league stats and MLB careers. It points out something I've always suspected, walk rates in the low minors don't mean much. No real surprise Sano and Buxton don't make the list, they haven't really played in AA yet......which makes me wonder why everyone is so sure they'll both be in MN this year, frankly.

I haven't read your article yet but I will.  But, IIRC, there have been some articles out there discussing krate and bb rate in the minors before.  The general rule was that high krates in the low minors is worrisome if you also have a low walk rate.  Some of the biggest busts in recent prospecting have been b/c the players didn't have a feel for the strike zone, which showed in the low minors despite their offensive domination of that level. 

 

As to why people are optimistic about Sano and Buxton: 1) both are extremely highly regarded prospects by people that aren't just Twins fans and 2) both are starting the year in AA, which means they are close to being promoted.  Twins have been happily promoting AA players to the majors for a while, before they get to AAA.

[lightfoot789]

*Do these reports account for the type of pitches various minor leaguers see at the lower levels? 

*Are better prospects pitched around more? 

*Do teams with loaded prospects get challenged more because of who is ahead or behind them in a lineup? 

*Do certain prospects play better with the help of quality scouting reports? 

*When do minor leaguers get to study film or learn to do so in a proper manor?  A / AA / AAA / MLB?

*I've always been curious as to what do Managers and Coaches do in the Minors to help prospects become and stay MLB players?  Besides grit - what are the molders intangibles?

[brvama]

 

.... No real surprise Sano and Buxton don't make the list, they haven't really played in AA yet......

Just a minor side comment on Sano and AA. I've see this comment before that Sano hasn't played much in AA. In fact he played 67 games in 2013 vs. 56 at high A. That is over a half a year. I would think that would be somewhat significant time.

 

The rest is interesting about MiLb performance and MLB prediction. It does make sense that many statistics in low minors can be insignificant, like walks. Not sur I buy their predictions tho.

[Otwins]

Thanks for the post. Interesting stuff. I would agree that the prospects that I am most hopeful for do not have many AA abs. We had a couple veteran hitters in AAA have nice years but this system sorts them out. It would be interesting to look at this next year because looks like Double A this year should have quite a few interesting prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

My bad on Sano, I thought it was closer to 30 or 40 games in AA. And, that wasn't really the point of the post....