Twins and Advanced Statistics?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I was curious to if there was any knowledge or articles of where the Twins front office and past coaching staff used advanced statistics. Does anyone know? It seems to me like they are probably behind most other teams out there.

 

I know I read an article on the defensive shift that showed how many times each team used it and their BAIP with it on opposed to with it off. The Twins were near the bottom. Only a handful of teams had worse BAIP with it off, and overall it there was a huge difference in it helping. 

 

I believe that everyone seems to be for using them or against. The old school people are against it seems. But, they don't have to be mutually exclusive. You can be smart and old school at the same time. 

 

I really wish the Twins would invest heavily in their front office with advanced statistics and have a coaching staff that at least would be open to using them and admit they are helpful. The staff doesn't need to be the ones doing the work on it.

 

The way I would like to see them used is to have a team of researchers compiling all the data and then have them come up with useful ways to use those stats. Then have the researchers present the stats and ideas of how to use them to the staff before every game, giving the manager options on weather or not to use them and how, with multiple options. That way the manager isn't overwhelmed and has a choice in the matter. 

 

I would like to see the Twins be near the top of the league in using advanced statistics though. Teams like the Twins need to capitalize on every area like this in order to compete with higher player payroll teams. Just my uninformed thoughts.

[Mike Sixel]

No one knows how much they use, and they won't really talk about it. Sometimes their stats guy comes her and talks to us, but not often. 

 

I'd like the Twins to be the best scouts and stats users. I don't think they are either right now.....

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Crap, that is kinda what I had assumed about the Twins. Its a shame. Knowledge is power. The best companies use them and its been pointed out many times how they help in baseball. You don't need to understand them to use them. 

[Mike Sixel]

It is clear they use them, it isn't clear how, or how much influence they have. As long as this leadership is in charge, that will remain murky. 

 

I don't care if they talk about it, I care that they produce better results.....that's why I'm pretty sure they aren't the best at scouting and math use, the results stink.

[Parker Hageman]

You can read this thread which has Jack Goin, the Twins' Manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, answering some of these types of questions: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/8688-ask-jack-minnesota-twins-jack-goin-answers-your-questions/.

 

I will say this -- having experience in dealing with the front office the past several years, there is definitely a movement towards the analytics side of things, particularly since when I first discussed it with Rob Antony in 2010 -- http://www.minnpost.com/sports/2010/04/statistical-analysis-and-twins-together-last.

 

It does not appear to be next level-type of analysis but they are working on growing that aspect of the organization.

[gunnarthor]

No one knows how much any team uses advanced stats.  Twins, like all teams, keep it close to the vest. 

 

Incidentally, the worst team defensively this year was Houston.  And they shifted the most.

[TheLeviathan]

No one knows how much any team uses advanced stats.  Twins, like all teams, keep it close to the vest. 

 

Incidentally, the worst team defensively this year was Houston.  And they shifted the most.

 

Team defensive stats is not the best place to check on how successful shifting is for your team, that's not where the results will show up.

[Mike Sixel]

Most defensive stats don't yet take into account shifts either, since the practice is relatively new on a wide scale.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

No one knows how much any team uses advanced stats.  Twins, like all teams, keep it close to the vest. 

 

Incidentally, the worst team defensively this year was Houston.  And they shifted the most.

 

I couldn't find the stats for this year, but The Astros, like the majority of teams, had lower a lower opponent BAIP with the shift on than with the shift off.  Many of the teams that did not benefit statistically from the shift were the teams that used it very little, so their sample sizes also can't be counted on as much. 

 

I am not calling for shifting at a ridiculous rate, but it should be employed against almost all known LH pull hitters. Also, it is really easy to point out and remember the times the shift failed than it is to remember the times it saved you. 

 

EDIT: I found this helpful recent article. Astros benefited the most by the way. It was pretty informative. Or course it is not going to work all the time or for every team though.  http://online.wsj.com/articles/baseballs-shift-does-it-work-1410304648

[Willihammer]

Its also worth pointing out that part of the reason Bo Porter was canned was because of the constant push back against the analytics dept. Who knows if the implementation was botched or employed as the analytics people intended.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Its also worth pointing out that part of the reason Bo Porter was canned was because of the constant push back against the analytics dept. Who knows if the implementation was botched or employed as the analytics people intended.

 

That is true. It is not all about shifting more or doing it for the hell of it. It is about shifting when it is appropriate and may give you an advantage to do so, and also doing it properly and efficiently. Failure to employ it properly does not mean a team should not shift, but that they need to be smarter at it. 

 

Also, the article I posted shows the Twins benefited by it overall.

[gunnarthor]

I honestly don't know how much the Twins shift and before this year, I don't remember people caring.  I do remember years ago when I lived out east and had ML extra innings package, I got the White Sox feed.  And their guys were saying that the Twins were shifting Delmon Young real close to the LF line against several LH hitters and it was really working against Chicago.  Hawk said something like the Twins advanced scouts must have seen something to put him (Delmon) that close to the line.

 

I also remember KLaw liking the Orlando Hudson signing and he felt Hudson's defense was better than it showed in LA (and several year downward trend) b/c the Twins were more likely to position him better before the at-bat.  And his defensive numbers did increase that year with us.  

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I honestly don't know how much the Twins shift and before this year, I don't remember people caring.  I do remember years ago when I lived out east and had ML extra innings package, I got the White Sox feed.  And their guys were saying that the Twins were shifting Delmon Young real close to the LF line against several LH hitters and it was really working against Chicago.  Hawk said something like the Twins advanced scouts must have seen something to put him (Delmon) that close to the line.

 

I also remember KLaw liking the Orlando Hudson signing and he felt Hudson's defense was better than it showed in LA (and several year downward trend) b/c the Twins were more likely to position him better before the at-bat.  And his defensive numbers did increase that year with us.  

Yeah, it is hard to know how much they shade defensively. I am sure they are doing their research on this stuff, my point is just that we need to be at the forefront and exploit these areas to make up for payroll. 

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, it is hard to know how much they shade defensively. I am sure they are doing there research on this stuff, my point is just that we need to be at the forefront and exploit these areas to makeup for payroll. 

I'm old enough to remember Tom Kelly dogging Todd Walker for his defensive deficiencies.  There wasn't much of an internet then but there were a few people attacking the Twins for their over reliance on defense. And then, years later, the advanced stats showed exactly what TK was saying.  

[ashbury]

Sometimes their stats guy comes her and talks to us, but not often. 

Kinda like that split screen scene in Annie Hall:

 

TD: Hardly ever.  Two, maybe three times a season.

Jack Goin: Constantly.  Two, maybe three times a season.