What is up with Plouffe?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Our understanding of BAbip differs somewhat. My understanding is that BAbip correlates to line drive percentage. This year, Plouffe is near the bottom in that list also. There is an xBAbip calculation which puts him at around .235. So his combination of low line drive percentage thus far this year and poor luck has led to abysmal offensive numbers.

 

Plouffe has 471 plate appearances. At that number of plate appearances line drive rate (career 15%) does stabilize. BAbip doesn't stabilize even at 650 plate appearances. It is really impossible to use the data at this sample size to definitively say that Plouffe will not be a useful major league hitter. We might be able to say that about Valencia at this time.

I don't like BABIP as much for batters as I do pitchers. I just thought it was notable, because it's flat out ridiculous. And as RiverBrian said, I wasn't paying much attention to xBABIP, but I did mention that Plouffe would likely be below the MLB average BABIP (which you confirmed).

[twinsnorth49]

BABIP for hitters is pretty simple. Take your hits and subtract the Homers and divide it by at bats minus homers, strikeouts and Sacrifices. Batting Average on balls in play.

 

No one was quoting expected BABIP until you put the X in front.

 

Heres the deal... I love the advanced metrics. I read them... I understand them and they make sense in the proper dose but if you hang your hat on them... Your hat will end up on the ground and get stepped on from time to time. For all you guys who base your opinions seemingly at the sole discretion of advanced metrics... You are sterilizing the game to a certain point. Watch the game. Baseball is so much more. Watch Plouffe... Plouffe swings at tough pitches. If Joey Votto swung at the pitches Plouffe dives at. Votto would have a low BABIP and the Reds would have traded for Lyle Overbay.

 

Using Metrics... Until you can properly explain the large swings from month to month or year to year. You can't rely on stats alone. No one can explain it with metrics. Try and explain Joe Mauer 2009 with his lifetime of work with stats... It can't be done. Adam Dunn 2011... Albert Pujols 2012. These swings are margin of error and the swings are elephant sized large. This isn't jackknife replication and election exit polling size margin of error. Use baseball metrics to predict the president and Ross Perot would have gotten taken seriously.

 

How does Mike Napoli go from an expected out April, May and June 2011 to unstoppable July, August, September the same year. The stats will tell you it happened but not the why and nothing in his previous seasons suggested that those 3 months were possible.

 

Even the Moneyball A's have figured this out and have lightened up on their use of metrics. They still use them but in the proper dose.

 

Plouffe swings at bad pitches more often then most... He's talented... He either learns better discipline or he gets thrown on the large scrap heap of baseball players who now own a bar.

Yep squared, that's how I feel. Metrics are an interesting read from time to time but I wouldn't go near them with 30 foot pole while actually watching and enjoying a baseball game. I wonder what the sabre dudes were thinking when Hammer jacked that walk off over the wall tonight?.............That's not supposed to happen in the 9th with 2 on and 2 out in May at Target field against a left hander!!!!

[spideyo]

What's a BABIP? Nevermind, I don't care.

 

All I know is, 75% or more of the time, Plouffe doesn't deliver at the plate. He had two clutch opportunities tonight, where a single could have busted up the 0-0 tie far earlier, and he predictably failed both times. Right now, he is taking playing time away from Casilla and Carroll, who are both doing better than him at the plate and are far better fielders. As soon as Valencia comes back, Plouffe either needs to be a bench guy or get dumped. He's not going to be an asset to this team taking away playing time from Revere or Willingham, and Valencia isn't going to come back up to sit on the bench.

[CDog]

Yep squared, that's how I feel. Metrics are an interesting read from time to time but I wouldn't go near them with 30 foot pole while actually watching and enjoying a baseball game. I wonder what the sabre dudes were thinking when Hammer jacked that walk off over the wall tonight?.............That's not supposed to happen in the 9th with 2 on and 2 out in May at Target field against a left hander!!!!

I would guess I'm one of what you would call a "saber dude," although I wouldn't go that far. I can tell you that what I was thinking just before that was more in the form of hope, as it usually is. Hope that he'd get a good pitch to hit and he'd hit it on the screws. Being it was the Hammer, I hoped for something in the gap or over a fence. Before he'd finished his follow through I had uttered out loud (and scared my dogs) "*Expletive deleted* yes!" Point being, the impression that there isn't overlap between analytical thought, careful observation, and emotional investment isn't accurate in all cases. And a good "saber dude" knows that in any given at bat in any given situation, even 2 on and 2 out in the 9th in May at Target Field against a left-hander, that almost anything can happen. The numbers have little to do with any single event. It's baseball. It's amazing. That's why most of us watch. (I have thoughts on why the rest watch, but I'll keep them to myself...haha.)

[Game163]

He's making my "You can't handle the Plouffe" tshirt kind of sad.

[Riverbrian]

I would guess I'm one of what you would call a "saber dude," although I wouldn't go that far. I can tell you that what I was thinking just before that was more in the form of hope, as it usually is. Hope that he'd get a good pitch to hit and he'd hit it on the screws. Being it was the Hammer, I hoped for something in the gap or over a fence. Before he'd finished his follow through I had uttered out loud (and scared my dogs) "*Expletive deleted* yes!" Point being, the impression that there isn't overlap between analytical thought, careful observation, and emotional investment isn't accurate in all cases. And a good "saber dude" knows that in any given at bat in any given situation, even 2 on and 2 out in the 9th in May at Target Field against a left-hander, that almost anything can happen. The numbers have little to do with any single event. It's baseball. It's amazing. That's why most of us watch. (I have thoughts on why the rest watch, but I'll keep them to myself...haha.)

In the end... Baseball is about opportunity. I can't give you any names but I'm convinced that there are quite a few baseball players who could have been superstars or at least everyday starters in MLB who never got the chance because someone was blocking them or a decision maker marginalized his skills by focusing on one negative trait while ignoring something positive. Who knows... Maybe Lars Anderson is destined for MLB greatness but will never get the chance because Adrian Gonzalez is blocking him. Ryan Vogelsong on Jose Bautista got an opportunity and they made the most of it when that opportunity arose. How many players never got a chance. I don't know the answer but I'm sure that there are quite a few.

 

Trevor Plouffe is at such a crossroads right now and his opportunity is right now. He's at the right place at the right time and he is blowing it because he can't produce consistently.

 

The Twins don't want to let him go because he has potential to be a flexible guy with Pop. They don't want to play him either because he is taking the O-Fer to new levels. Trevor could be pressing trying to prove something in every at bat... I don't know but he has to get disciplined and he has to do it right now... Because his opportunity is right now and there are many players who just didn't get the chance that Plouffe is getting right now.

 

He will sit back and look at this year as the year that cost him a career if he doesn't get it together.

[Riverbrian]

One more thing... Plouffe knows it... You can see it in his body language. I feel bad for the kid. He just has to realize that he can do this... Look for his pitch... not the pitchers pitch...

[twinsnorth49]

I would guess I'm one of what you would call a "saber dude," although I wouldn't go that far. I can tell you that what I was thinking just before that was more in the form of hope, as it usually is. Hope that he'd get a good pitch to hit and he'd hit it on the screws. Being it was the Hammer, I hoped for something in the gap or over a fence. Before he'd finished his follow through I had uttered out loud (and scared my dogs) "*Expletive deleted* yes!" Point being, the impression that there isn't overlap between analytical thought, careful observation, and emotional investment isn't accurate in all cases. And a good "saber dude" knows that in any given at bat in any given situation, even 2 on and 2 out in the 9th in May at Target Field against a left-hander, that almost anything can happen. The numbers have little to do with any single event. It's baseball. It's amazing. That's why most of us watch. (I have thoughts on why the rest watch, but I'll keep them to myself...haha.)

Well the "Sabre Dude" thing was a little tongue in cheek, you seem like a well balanced Sabre Dude CDog , I think the real hardcore SD's would have turned the game off because there wasn't a statistically high enough chance for the Twins to win with a walk-off HR.

[snepp]

I find your references to "sabre dudes" to be, quite frankly, stupid and just plain ******* ignorant.

 

 

And I say that with the least amount of tongue-in-cheek possible.

[twinsnorth49]

I find your references to "sabre dudes" to be, quite frankly, stupid and just plain ******* ignorant.

 

 

And I say that with the least amount of tongue-in-cheek possible.

Oh, I'm ignorant? Nice post, as the saying goes, people in glass houses.....

 

Clearly you are one of those guys who takes himself Waaaay too seriously, if you're that easily offended, you need some medication. Chill out bud, we're talking about baseball, not the cure for cancer.

[CDog]

we're talking about baseball, not the cure for cancer.

What if baseball IS the cure for cancer? Hmmmmm??????

[Shane Wahl]

With Burroughs and Valencia hitting, Plouffe's days of starting are numbered. It would be nice for him to be the RH bench bat, but instead of homers I imagine it would be strike out after strike out for the most part.

[Rosterman]

Plouffe has the pop. He just needs the discipline. It seems he did not adjust well to bein a utility player, so he's getting his chance, largely at third. But he has to produce or be one. If he can't crack the starting nine (and you can POSSIBLY carry a dead bat - one dead bat - each year)...then he's gone or...that unproductive utility guy because so many others are outplaying him. Remember, he signed out of high school. He could be a leader, but he is still young at heart, spending his prime growing years trolling the minors with the rap of high draft pick with talent but not blowing people away. He does seem humble, frustrated......

 

I do remember a couple of TwinsFests ago when he was sitting at the farm club table and talking about his goal for his next season at Rochester was 25 homers and 24 steals. Didn't quite do it....but he was going to try.

 

Maybe he'll be Luke Hughes in a couple of years.

[Riverbrian]

I find your references to "sabre dudes" to be, quite frankly, stupid and just plain ******* ignorant.

 

 

And I say that with the least amount of tongue-in-cheek possible.

I remember my Grandmother who was 95 years old at the time had just baked some Cookies. I stopped by to visit and she asked me if I wanted a fresh baked Cookie right out of the oven and she set down a glass of milk for me and gave me a kiss.

 

I replied... "what the hell you old bat... Are you saying that I look like someone who needs one of your Cookies. My god... raisin Cookies... You put raisins in everything... Cookies... Stuffing... Hamburgers... Look... Take a look... See this... you have raisins in this glass of milk. Get a clue... Can I just stop by without you peddling your raisins and smothering me with your Grandmother breath".

 

In retrospect I may have over reacted to my Grandmother but thankfully not as bad as you just did with this post.

[Riverbrian]

What if baseball IS the cure for cancer? Hmmmmm??????

I will be drinking, smoking, eating asbestos, bathing in formaldehyde and strapping a transmitting cell phone to my head permanantly because Baseball will have made me invincible.

[Riverbrian]

He's making my "You can't handle the Plouffe" tshirt kind of sad.

Funny shirt... I'd wear that... If I had one.

 

I'd get stared at... But I'm used to it.

[Riverbrian]

Oh, I'm ignorant? Nice post, as the saying goes, people in glass houses.....

 

Clearly you are one of those guys who takes himself Waaaay too seriously, if you're that easily offended, you need some medication. Chill out bud, we're talking about baseball, not the cure for cancer.

Hey North... You know what your biggest problem is? POUTINE!!! its almost criminal what you do to your french fries... Other then that... I find no traces of ignorance.

[Bark's Lounge]

French Fries, Cheese Curds, Gravy.... yummmmmmm

[Rosterman]

He's still young, has some potential (where, I don't know), out of options, and the Twins did invest in him. Buts shades of B.J. Garbe amongst others, when will they throw in the towel........

[Bark's Lounge]

What if baseball IS the cure for cancer? Hmmmmm??????

A tear drops Dave Dravecky's eye. Harmon and countless other baseball players who did not survive cancer would be very disappointed in you for you comment.

[twinsnorth49]

Hey North... You know what your biggest problem is? POUTINE!!! its almost criminal what you do to your french fries... Other then that... I find no traces of ignorance.

The only issue with poutine is the people who insist on putting ketchup on it, those people should be arrested, I am not in that group. Really RB, you don't like Poutine? you seem like a well travelled guy, you must have had some good poutine, what's the issue? It has 4 of the same letters as Plouffe.

 

I hear you though.

[Bark's Lounge]

He's still young, has some potential (where, I don't know), out of options, and the Twins did invest in him. Buts shades of B.J. Garbe amongst others, when will they throw in the towel........

Plouffe vs B.J. Garbe... Huh?

[twinsnorth49]

French Fries' date=' Cheese Curds, Gravy.... yummmmmmm[/quote']

 

You got it, what else is there to say?

[twinsnorth49]

Plouffe vs B.J. Garbe... Huh?

 

I don't get it either, I don't believe Garbe ever played an inning of AAA let alone majors. Plouffe is worth waiting on for at least this season, if he can learn some discipline and find his pitches he has a good swing and has flashed some power. Quote all the metrics you want, it's yesterday's news, he's a young guy who if he figures it out, has some raw tools to do well.

[glunn]

The only issue with poutine is the people who insist on putting ketchup on it, those people should be arrested, I am not in that group. Really RB, you don't like Poutine? you seem like a well travelled guy, you must have had some good poutine, what's the issue? It has 4 of the same letters as Plouffe.

 

I had to google poutine. Is there such a thing as "good" poutine?

[twinsnorth49]

I had to google poutine. Is there such a thing as "good" poutine?

Oh my, you are from Beverly Hills! Tell you what glunn, you seem like a good egg, when I open my Poutine stand at Target your first order is free! You'll be converted.

 

Now if I can just find an angle on that work visa thing........damn you Yankee protectionists, don't you know what you're missing!?

[jokin]

Originally Posted by CDog What if baseball IS the cure for cancer? Hmmmmm??????

 

 

"A tear drops Dave Dravecky's eye. Harmon and countless other baseball players who did not survive cancer would be very disappointed in you for you comment."

 

 

On a website replete with logical fallacies, this comment has to be inducted into the Non-Sequitur Hall of Fame.

[Riverbrian]

The only issue with poutine is the people who insist on putting ketchup on it, those people should be arrested, I am not in that group. Really RB, you don't like Poutine? you seem like a well travelled guy, you must have had some good poutine, what's the issue? It has 4 of the same letters as Plouffe.

 

I hear you though.

I actually kinda like POUTINE. Its just that over the past month. I'm kinda running out of things uniquely Canadian.