Article: Breaking Better

[twinsnorth49]

But it does appear to me that the Twins may never be comfortable with Pinto behind the plate (at least not as the primary catcher). So that does make it look like they need a bridge to someone further down in the system.

 

Just wondering how you feel it appears that way?

[jorgenswest]

But Mike, pitch framing isn't ALL that makes up the defensive side of catching, is it? I know statistically Suzuki doesn't seem to do that well on throwing out runners, etc. But pitchers seem to be pretty positive about the way he calls a game (and takes control). In addition, he is one tough cookie out there.

 

It seems to me that you have to weigh how all of those things relate. There appears to be some "art" (calling the game) and some "science" (the stats) involved.

 

I really don't have strong feelings on retaining Suzuki. But it does appear to me that the Twins may never be comfortable with Pinto behind the plate (at least not as the primary catcher). So that does make it look like they need a bridge to someone further down in the system.

 

The reviews Suzuki's defense have always been mixed.

 

It is hard to find data that shows he is a good defensive catcher. The pitch framing numbers are consistently poor. He has poor numbers throwing out runners.

 

Since he played with two teams in 2012 and 2013, it gave an opportunity to compare against several other pitchers. I compared strike out and walk rates.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/4837-Kurt-Suzuki-Signed-to-be-the-starter

 

I used three years of data and 12000 batters faced for the sample. Over three years, the other 12 catchers have a 23% better strikeout walk ratio, a strikeout rate that is 9% better and a walk rate that is 11% lower. Parker wrote that Suzuki's pitch calling included more fastballs than any other catcher.

 

Suzuki has poor pitch framing numbers but...

Suzuki has poor numbers throwing out runners but...

With Suzuki catching, pitchers walked more batters and struck out fewer batters but...

 

He is good at blocking pitches. BP ranks Suzuki 8th this year (7th, 14th and 7th the previous 3 years) in blocking pitches. He is credited with 1 run prevented this year due to preventing wild pitches and passed balls.

[JB_Iowa]

Just wondering how you feel it appears that way?

 

It's really just an impression I've formed from everything I've read. Gut reaction more than anything else.

[JB_Iowa]

There is something that the statistics aren't showing.

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_26154694/all-star-kurt-suzuki-helping-twins-and-oakland

 

The amount of preparation he does and the way he calls the game:

 

"I think a lot of the reasons Norris has been successful is he learned from Suzuki in the way that he prepares and the way he knows the opposing hitters and the scouting report inside and out," Doolittle said.

 

 

I don't know if this is statistically quantifiable but obviously his pitchers have a great deal of confidence in him. (not just from this story but from multiple stories I've read).

[Willihammer]

There is something that the statistics aren't showing.

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_26154694/all-star-kurt-suzuki-helping-twins-and-oakland

 

Why wouldn't the stats show the result of his prep? Along with his pitch framing, blocking, etc.

 

See Jorgensweet's blog. Suzuki gets fewer K's and more BB's than his teammates.

[cmb0252]

I don't believe it has ever been proven that moral victories lead to actual victories the next season. I care more about development than wins in a losing season. If Suzuki, Correia, Willingham, and whomever isn't in future plans trade them for assets instead of losing them for nothing at the end of the year.

[Mr. Brooks]

Pinto should be traded, not Suzuki. Suzuki leads the pitching meetings, and is a leader behind the plate. A young staff will need that. Pinto will not be the answer for the next Twins young catcher. The answer will be Stuart Turner or more probably, Mitch Garver (check out what he does with the bat in ceadar rapids and he was one of three finalists for the 2013 Johnny Bench Award that was won by Turner) Suzuki, even if he bats .250, is the transition catcher that needs extended for two years sooner than later. I would even say immediately if not sooner.

 

He is leading this pitching staff to the worst ERA in the AL, anyone could do that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Dumb question, but how new is pitch framing as a stat? I ask b/c I haven't heard much about it until recently, and that tends to make me a bit nervous about quoting it as gospel truth.

[Jim H]

Dumb question, but how new is pitch framing as a stat? I ask b/c I haven't heard much about it until recently, and that tends to make me a bit nervous about quoting it as gospel truth.

 

It is only about 2-3 years old. It is based on Pitch F/X. If a pitcher gets a strike called by the umpire on a pitch Pitch F/X called a ball, the catcher gets credit for it because of pitch framing. There are a few things to be nervous about, whether there is as much impact from a few stolen strikes as the creator suggests, the fact that Pitch F/X can't possibly be always right, whether the catcher should be the one to always get the credit, and a number of other things.

 

It is an interesting stat, but almost certainly needs refinement, and is certainly not the end all of ways to evaluate catchers.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess I'd assume it is not precise, but it is directional and indicates a consistent skill. Suzuki is last by both pages I visited. Even if the count is off, he's just not good at it.

[drjim]

It is only about 2-3 years old. It is based on Pitch F/X. If a pitcher gets a strike called by the umpire on a pitch Pitch F/X called a ball, the catcher gets credit for it because of pitch framing. There are a few things to be nervous about, whether there is as much impact from a few stolen strikes as the creator suggests, the fact that Pitch F/X can't possibly be always right, whether the catcher should be the one to always get the credit, and a number of other things.

 

It is an interesting stat, but almost certainly needs refinement, and is certainly not the end all of ways to evaluate catchers.

 

Two things I have wondered is if different stadiums lead to different pitch f/x readings, and how much do the pitchers impact umpires calls. The studies claim otherwise, but I have to think bad staffs make catchers look worse.

[Jim H]

One of the problems with the whole pitch framing idea is this: Pitch F/X calls the front edge of the plate, but the plate has depth(16 in). The catcher catches the ball a couple of feet? behind the plate. Where the catcher catches the ball really shouldn't matter. It is the track of the pitch that matters. Since Pitch F/X calls the front edge of the plate, it is going to be wrong sometimes on close pitches. Since umpires are apparently graded by Pitch F/X technology, I suspect the umpires are less concerned by where the catchers catch the ball, and more concerned with getting a good look at where the ball crosses or not crosses the front of the plate. That is probably what pitch framing is mostly about, trying to give the ump a good look at the ball.

 

As far drjim wonders, I think those are good thoughts. I doubt if the cameras used in different stadiums are in actually the same places in all stadiums. I doubt if everything is always perfectly correlated either. As to the 2nd wonder, clearly when you watch games on TV it seems that different pitchers don't always seem to get the same calls from umps. It seems that pitchers like Deduno for example and maybe Gibson as well, guys who have a lot movement but not consistently the same movement don't get as many close calls. I have a hard time blaming Suzuki for that.

[jorgenswest]

Dumb question, but how new is pitch framing as a stat? I ask b/c I haven't heard much about it until recently, and that tends to make me a bit nervous about quoting it as gospel truth.

 

Pitch framing data for catchers is available for the last 8 seasons.

 

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

 

It has been shown to be consistent for catchers season to season as many other commonly used measures.

[Willihammer]

It seems that pitchers like Deduno for example and maybe Gibson as well, guys who have a lot movement but not consistently the same movement don't get as many close calls. I have a hard time blaming Suzuki for that.

 

Who would you rather catch?

 

http://i.imgur.com/u3qH82M.png?1