2015 MLB Draft Thread

[twinsfanstreif]

Wow, I've never disagreed this much on mlb.com's rankings before. They have Cameron at #8 and I feel like that's insane! Mark my words, barring arrest or injury, Cameron will be top 5. They also have Bickford at 17, that's ridiculous. Rodgers is a nice player (although his scouting report reads suspiciously like Matt Bush's) but #1 overall is pushing it, he doesn't have one stand out tool and looks to be a little above average on all of them, not exactly #1 overall unless it's a $ saving strategy. I don't know who mlb.com is using for scouts but they seem to be getting some second rate info in my opinion. It'll be interesting to see some of the other guys (TTF already has a few things) and how they see it.

[gunnarthor]

And here's their first mock:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103053582/2015-mock-draft-callis-mayo-call-top-10

 

Both have the Twins taking Vanderbilt righty Walker Buehler

[nytwinsfan]

The bad news is that it seems likely Matuella, Aiken, and Rogers will likely be gone (although much can change before next summer). The good news is that it seems like one of the next tier of pitchers (Kirby, Buehler, Funkhouser from college and Allard and Hooper from HS) will be there. I'd prefer a college arm at this point, so they can debut before 2020, but obviously if the value is significantly higher for a HS arm, you have to go with that. I have to say I'm not too enthralled with Cameron at #6, or with the other bats after Rogers, unless we were going to pay under slot and use the rest to sign a very high upside HS arm in the second round.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think I'd go upside with the HS arm.  They have a lot of nice arms coming up through the system right now, and all a college arm does is clog that up. 

[nicksaviking]

Both pick Buehler?  Eh, I hope that changes.  Small righty who's fastball sits in the low 90's but then unsurprisingly got a little boost in the Cape Cod League.  I think we've seen that several times now the last couple years it's turned out to be a mirage.

[twinsfanstreif]

Both pick Buehler?  Eh, I hope that changes.  Small righty who's fastball sits in the low 90's but then unsurprisingly got a little boost in the Cape Cod League.  I think we've seen that several times now the last couple years it's turned out to be a mirage.

Yea, I don't get the fascination with Buehler. He seems like a lesser verson of Nola from last year and his weight could be a problem. I just don't see teams looking at him until later, Small guys in the past have been passed over even though their numbers were ridiculous (Stroman, Lincecum) and those guys could hit the upper 90s, why is buehler different? I'm also not sure why they hate Bickford so much, I see him as one of the top 5 college pitchers

[markos]

Wow, I've never disagreed this much on mlb.com's rankings before. They have Cameron at #8 and I feel like that's insane! Mark my words, barring arrest or injury, Cameron will be top 5. They also have Bickford at 17, that's ridiculous. Rodgers is a nice player (although his scouting report reads suspiciously like Matt Bush's) but #1 overall is pushing it, he doesn't have one stand out tool and looks to be a little above average on all of them, not exactly #1 overall unless it's a $ saving strategy. I don't know who mlb.com is using for scouts but they seem to be getting some second rate info in my opinion. It'll be interesting to see some of the other guys (TTF already has a few things) and how they see it.

Lots of people are down on Cameron right now after a so-so summer. ESPN, Fangraphs and now MLB Pipeline all have ranked him at #8 or worse in the past couple of months. However, he is still my expected pick for the Twins at #6. Toolsy outfielder with bloodlines is right up their alley.

[twinsfanstreif]

Watch this youtube video of Cameron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1Iax4AwFYQ he has some of the quickest wrists I've seen in a while. He's a lot bulkier than Buxton was at that age and he looks to be a lot stronger, I just hope he doesn't fill out too much like Delmon Young did and become a defensive liability.

 

I watched a bunch of other youtube clips of a lot of these top guys and here are my observations:

 

1. Hooper can hit 98 MPH on the gun but he has some serious mechanical issues and needs A LOT of work. Too risky for #6

 

2. Allard is a hot name right now. He's almost lackadaisical on the mound and he shows his hand in his wind up. This could be a problem if not fixed as advanced hitters will pick up on it. He does have a sick Curve though. He's risky because he's essentially a 2 pitch guy and has a lot of growing to do. Nevertheless I could see the Twins target him.

 

3. Brenden Rodgers swing is long and I think he's gonna struggle, he's not nearly as athletic as most of the top SS prospects that have come out in the past. I see him moving to 3rd and being a Plouffe guy at best, Matt Bush at worst.

 

4. Nathan Kirby has the most consistant and smoothest mechanics of any pitcher I watched

 

5. Matuella has pretty inconsistant mechanics but by far the best stuff. With his delivery I would worry about shoulder issues as he puts a lot of effort forward and cranks his shoulder forward as he throws (I'm not exactly sure how to discribe it), Mark Prior did the same thing BTW

 

6. Bickford has really improved since high school. He was almost a full on side arm in HS and was super inconsistant. Video from this past year he was more of a 3/4 slot and repeated it well making his control much better, plus he gained a few ticks on his FB, props to his coach at Cal State Fullerton.

 

7. The only video of Trenton Clark I could find is when he was 15, He's intriguing to me bacause of his numbers but I can't really evaluate him right now

 

8. Walker Buehler reminds me of Greg Maddux. Their mechanics are so similar it's scary and they are both smaller guys (although Greg gained a beer gut in his latter days). I'm not saying Buehler's gonna be Maddux or that I would even take him it's just interesting.

 

9. The only video's of Aiken are all the same ones from last year (not sure why I expected more of them) and I still like him.

 

10. Cody Ponce will have TJ surgery at some point. His delivery is heavy arm action and looks to be high stress on his arm

[nicksaviking]

The Astros avoided legal wranglings with last year's pick Jacob Nix by agreeing to some kind of settlement. 

 

For those that forgot, the Astros promised Nix $1.5 million, which was overslot to begin with.  When the team failed to sign Brady Aiken they lost the Aiken slot allotment.  With the allotment gone, Nix's bonus would have put the Astros over their spending limit and would have caused them to lose two future draft picks.

 

At this time the payoff isn't being reported, and surely the Astros want to keep it that way.  Here's hoping the league and the MLBPA doesn't let Houston continue with these shenanigans and penalizes the Astros accordingly, pulling draft picks from them regardles of their inability to sign the players.

[JB_Iowa]

The Astros avoided legal wranglings with last year's pick Jacob Nix by agreeing to some kind of settlement. 

 

For those that forgot, the Astros promised Nix $1.5 million, which was overslot to begin with.  When the team failed to sign Brady Aiken they lost the Aiken slot allotment.  With the allotment gone, Nix's bonus would have put the Astros over their spending limit and would have caused them to lose two future draft picks.

 

At this time the payoff isn't being reported, and surely the Astros want to keep it that way.  Here's hoping the league and the MLBPA doesn't let Houston continue with these shenanigans and penalizes the Astros accordingly, pulling draft picks from them regardles of their inability to sign the players.

 

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo  · 17h17 hours ago 

Astros essentially admit wrong paying off $1.5m to Jacob Nix. So why does MLB not punish them? Still Stros paid $1.5m to unsigned draftees

 

Baseball America ‏@BaseballAmerica  · 16h16 hours ago 

More Jacob Nix news: He'll throw for scouts, along with other #mlbdraft prospects, on Dec. 26. Details here: http://ow.ly/G0bgc

 

 

If Houston gets away with this with no penalties, shame on MLB.  Everybody can start manipulating picks - its only money.

[Mike Sixel]

What did Houston manipulate to their advantage?

 

They paid a guy for nothing. I think that's probably penalty enough, frankly.

[tobi0040]

I starting following prospects very early last year (maybe not quite this early).  But everything changed so much from March to the draft that in hindsight it was a waste of time.   Guys that were in contention at #1 and I thought we had no shot at went 10 picks behind us, guys like Aiken shot up past us.  I am trying not to get caught up as early this year.  Show me a few weeks out and I will start spending time on it.

 

I would say, from a position standpoint I would think the Twins would take note at how quick Schwarber and Zunino have moved (although Zunino probably moved too quick).  A college catcher in that mold would seem tempting to time with the core guys that we have. Assuming we conclude Pinto is not the guy.

 

Mock from March of last year:

 

1. Rodon
2. Hoffman
3. Beede
4. Turner
5. Kolek
6. Jackson
7. Gatewood
8. Gettys
9. Nola
10. Reid Foley
11. Aiken
12. Gordon
13. Pentacost
14. Zimmer
15. Holmes

 

Actual draft:

 

1. Aiken
2. Kolek
3. Rodon
4. Schwarber
5. Gordon
6. Jackson
7. Nola
8. Freeland
9. Hoffman
10. Conforto
11. Pentacost
12. Medieros
13. Turner
14. Beede
15. Newcomb

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2014/03/2014-mlb-mock-draft-5-0-top-41-picks-2556008.html

[tobi0040]

What did Houston manipulate to their advantage?

 

They paid a guy for nothing. I think that's probably penalty enough, frankly.

 

Did he refuse to go to college based on a promise of $1.5M?  That seems wrong to me.

[James]

What did Houston manipulate to their advantage?

 

They paid a guy for nothing. I think that's probably penalty enough, frankly.

Agreed.  It probably came with an agreement for the Astros not to draft him again.  

 

The settlement would also cause problems for him with the NCAA if he had gone to the college he committed to, but I don't think it'll be an issue as we went to junior college instead.  

[nicksaviking]

What did Houston manipulate to their advantage?

 

They paid a guy for nothing. I think that's probably penalty enough, frankly.

 

They didn't manipulate to their advantage, but only because they completely bungled the situation.  They TRIED to manipulate to their advantage, but failed.  I would think the intent should play a part in any decsion MLB makes in this case. 

 

MLBPA is probably torn as they wouldn't want a team trying to low ball the draft picks again but also wouldn't want to completely wipe out a couple of draft picks, and their slot bonuses.  If there was going to be pick forefiture (and there probably won't be) the best compromise would probably be to take a pick(s) away from the Astros and make one more pick up for grabs among the competitive balance teams, excluding Houston.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nice deal for Nicks. A year off, 1.5 in the bank, and another shot at the draft. I'd have probably forced them to honor the deal and taken the first pick away from them if I were MLB. I'd think though that this should keep this from happening ever again.

[nicksaviking]

 

I would say, from a position standpoint I would think the Twins would take note at how quick Schwarber and Zunino have moved (although Zunino probably moved too quick).  A college catcher in that mold would seem tempting to time with the core guys that we have. Assuming we conclude Pinto is not the guy.

 

 

I don't think Schwarber is going to stay at C, I think he's supposed to be pretty bad defensively.  I'm pretty prejudiced against catchers as I want the offensive guy with the highest ceiling and catchers rarely have the highest offensive ceiling.  Better college catcher than HS catcher though.  HS catchers have a near 100% bust rate since Mauer and McCann got drafted early this century.

[diehardtwinsfan]

They didn't manipulate to their advantage, but only because they completely bungled the situation.  They TRIED to manipulate to their advantage, but failed.  I would think the intent should play a part in any decsion MLB makes in this case. 

 

MLBPA is probably torn as they wouldn't want a team trying to low ball the draft picks again but also wouldn't want to completely wipe out a couple of draft picks, and their slot bonuses.  If there was going to be pick fordeiture (and there probably won't be) the best compromise would probably be to take a pick(s) away from the Astros and make one more pick up for grabs among the competitive balance teams, excluding Houston.

The overall salary slotting really wouldn't change if they took the pick as everything just moves up one. If it's the number of picks the MLBPA is concerned about (which I doubt), you give Houston the last pick in the 10th round in exchange, as that's really the slot value that's eliminated if Houston lost the pick.

[JB_Iowa]

Thank you for answering Mike better than I could have,

 

Both Aiken and Nix have probably lost their NCAA eligibility.  JUCO for both. I would guess.

 

Nix got a nice consolation prize,  So far Aiken has nothing.

[nicksaviking]

Thank you for answering Mike better than I could have,

 

Both Aiken and Nix have probably lost their NCAA eligibility.  JUCO for both. I would guess.

 

Nix got a nice consolation prize,  So far Aiken has nothing.

 

I guess the silver lining is they are now very unlikely to be forced to play for the Astros.

[Mike Sixel]

Also, they didn't want to go to college. If they go now, they are stuck for three years.....so that's not really an option for them anyway, right?

 

Neither one was going to college. Now, one gets $1.5MM and pitches at a JUCO instead of rookie ball. One, well, that's the risk you take entering the draft (which is just one of many reasons the draft is bad for players).

[Mike Sixel]

I starting following prospects very early last year (maybe not quite this early).  But everything changed so much from March to the draft that in hindsight it was a waste of time.   Guys that were in contention at #1 and I thought we had no shot at went 10 picks behind us, guys like Aiken shot up past us.  I am trying not to get caught up as early this year.  Show me a few weeks out and I will start spending time on it.

 

I would say, from a position standpoint I would think the Twins would take note at how quick Schwarber and Zunino have moved (although Zunino probably moved too quick).  A college catcher in that mold would seem tempting to time with the core guys that we have. Assuming we conclude Pinto is not the guy.

 

Mock from March of last year:

 

1. Rodon

2. Hoffman

3. Beede

4. Turner

5. Kolek

6. Jackson

7. Gatewood

8. Gettys

9. Nola

10. Reid Foley

11. Aiken

12. Gordon

13. Pentacost

14. Zimmer

15. Holmes

 

Actual draft:

 

1. Aiken

2. Kolek

3. Rodon

4. Schwarber

5. Gordon

6. Jackson

7. Nola

8. Freeland

9. Hoffman

10. Conforto

11. Pentacost

12. Medieros

13. Turner

14. Beede

15. Newcomb

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2014/03/2014-mlb-mock-draft-5-0-top-41-picks-2556008.html

 

Those actually look quite similar to me, given that they were that many months apart.

[tobi0040]

The overall salary slotting really wouldn't change if they took the pick as everything just moves up one. If it's the number of picks the MLBPA is concerned about (which I doubt), you give Houston the last pick in the 10th round in exchange, as that's really the slot value that's eliminated if Houston lost the pick.

 

That is the issue for me. If a team has the #1 pick and gets cold feet, they may think the #2 pick the next year will be better and they have a ton of leverage over the player.  MLB needs a bigger penalty if they make don't offer slot type money....like what Diehard proposed

[Mike Sixel]

That is the issue for me. If a team has the #1 pick and gets cold feet, they may think the #2 pick the next year will be better and they have a ton of leverage over the player. MLB needs a bigger penalty if they make don't offer slot type money....like what Diehard proposed

That's how a draft works.....and why a draft is bad for players.

[nicksaviking]

That's how a draft works.....and why a draft is bad for players.

 

There was a January draft not too long ago.  It was for amatures who graduated in the Winter.  It's how the Twins acquired Kirby Puckett.  Whatever the requirements, there could be an auxilary draft for players who were not eligible to be drafted during the Rule IV draft or players like Aiken or Nix who were screwed over by the Astros.

 

The draft isn't bad for players, it just doesn't maximize their earnings.  Sorry boys, but it's better than the old way, that is unless one thinks it's OK that the Twins and other non-major markets never get the top talent.

[tobi0040]

That's how a draft works.....and why a draft is bad for players.

 

I think a draft is still the best system.  They just need to tweak some of the rules.  If Houston could have either offered Aiken $6M or lost the #1 pick and only received a 10th rounder in return, it would not have been so bad for Aiken.

 

Instead they tried offering him like $3M knowing he was really boxed into a corner.

[Mike Sixel]

There was a January draft not too long ago.  It was for amatures who graduated in the Winter.  It's how the Twins acquired Kirby Puckett.  Whatever the requirements, there could be an auxilary draft for players who were not eligible to be drafted during the Rule IV draft or players like Aiken or Nix who were screwed over by the Astros.

 

The draft isn't bad for players, it just doesn't maximize their earnings.  Sorry boys, but it's better than the old way, that is unless one thinks it's OK that the Twins and other non-major markets never get the top talent.

 

It's terrible for players. They have to go where they are drafted, want to or not. They lose millions at the top of the draft. 

 

that has nothing to do with if it is good for teams.....

[tobi0040]

It's terrible for players. They have to go where they are drafted, want to or not. They lose millions at the top of the draft. 

 

that has nothing to do with if it is good for teams.....

 

Certainly 18 year old prospects would benefit and get more money if they could jump right into free agency. But that would be horrible from a partiy perspective.  That is why this area will be reformed for international prospects/free agents.

[nicksaviking]

It's terrible for players. They have to go where they are drafted, want to or not. They lose millions at the top of the draft. 

 

that has nothing to do with if it is good for teams.....

 

Not great for players, pretty good for owners, and optimal for fans.  Sounds like the best it's going to get from a fan's perspective, unless you're a fan in California or New York. 

 

The game is still about drawing fans, it doesn't work if everyone outside of LA and New York lose interest.  These guys know going in that becoming a MLB player doesn't allow them to choose their destination.  It's not unique that way.  The military, large law compaines, finance companies, insurance companies and hospitals may require the same.

[Mike Sixel]

That's why I said it is bad for players. ....nothing more or less.