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Next for Twins Offseason? Hopefully Not Much


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Last week, Minnesota Twins General Manager Terry Ryan went back-to-back-to-back making three deals in three days in an effort to improve his club, winning the bidding for the right to negotiate with Korean slugging first baseman/DH Byung-ho Park, trading backup catcher Chris Herrmann for a prospect, which cleared the way for catcher John Ryan Murphy to be added via trade.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

 

It has been almost a week since the last of those deals was announced, so the question has become, “Now what?”

 

I felt the catching situation was the most glaring need that had to be addressed this offseason and Ryan & Co. appear to have resolved that situation with the addition of Murphy.

 

Now, where should the GM turn his focus?

 

Given the state of the Twins the past four offseasons, it seems odd to say it, but I think Ryan's offseason work should be about done already.

 

Let’s take a position-by-position look at where the Twins stand right at this moment, with some thoughts as to how they could still be improved.

 

Between incumbent catcher Kurt Suzuki and the newly-acquired Murphy, the position appears to be set. If Ryan could find a taker for Suzuki, they could just hand the starting job to Murphy and look for another backup, but that seems highly unlikely.

 

Joe Mauer is at first base and isn’t going anywhere. The Twins added another first baseman in Park, which was surprising to most of us, so the odds are stacked high against seeing another one added. Kennys Vargas remains on the periphery of the 1B/DH mix and now we’re seeing reports that he could make a good sized payday in Korea or Japan if the Twins are willing to sell his contract.

 

Brian Dozier will play second base. If the Twins get an offer they can’t refuse for Dozier, Jorge Polanco would likely get his shot at a permanent promotion to the big leagues. It's hard to imagine the Twins adding someone else to the mix. James Beresford performed well in Rochester, but he's a minor league free agent again this year and is at least an even bet to sign elsewhere after the Twins didn't even give him a look in September.

 

Eduardo Escobar did everything anyone could ask of him at shortstop in 2015 and appears to have given the Twins the stability they’ve lacked at the position since the ill-advised trade of J.J. Hardy to the Orioles. The Twins will also have Danny Santana around as a utility player, should Escobar falter. It’s unlikely the Twins will go looking for another shortstop.

 

Everyone seems to think that third base is already crowded. Trevor Plouffe is still manning the hot corner, but is looking over his shoulder at the hulking figure of Miguel Sano. This has led many to recommend that the Twins trade Plouffe this offseason and hand the position to Sano.

 

While that might make sense, providing that Ryan could get fair value for Plouffe on the market (I’m not all that certain would be the case, but it’s possible), making that deal would mean putting all of the club’s third base “eggs” in the Sano basket. That makes me nervous.

 

Maybe Sano can play third base competently every day, but that’s hardly a certainty. If Plouffe is sent packing, Ryan had better have a reliable Plan B ready to step into the position. With Plouffe gone, who would that be?

 

There are few internal options that manager Paul Molitor could plug in. Do we want to see Eduardo Núñez as the Twins’ starting third baseman? Polanco and Santana have rarely played the position, even in minor league ball, but maybe one or both could do it.

 

Could a Plouffe trade be followed by the acquisition of a stop-gap type? Conceivably, yes. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook projects 37-year-old Juan Uribe to sign a one-year deal for $3 million. That sounds a little high, to me, for Uribe, but if it’s in that neighborhood, it wouldn’t be a bad price for this particular situation.

Unless Ryan is really wowed by an offer for Plouffe, however, I think he’s better off keeping the status quo. Let’s see how Sano handles the position (and how he handles his sophomore season at the plate) before running the risk of turning the third sack back into the black hole it was between the departure of Corey Koskie and the arrival of Plouffe.

 

Likewise, the outfield appears pretty full, even with the departure of Aaron Hicks to the Yankees in the Murphy deal.

Eddie Rosario will be in one corner and the Twins are hoping Byron Buxton claims centerfield right out of spring training. They’ve expressed their intention to teach Sano to play a corner outfield spot, especially now that Park seems likely to get most of the DH at-bats. Oswaldo Arcia is another internal outfield option, but the Twins won’t (or shouldn’t, anyway) consider any option that results in Arcia and Sano sharing the same outfield, no matter how good the man in centerfield is. Max Kepler earned the opportunity to impress coaches and the front office enough in spring training to claim an Opening Day roster spot, but I suspect they'll start him in Rochester, especially if the alternative is a fourth-outfielder role with the Twins.

 

And then there’s the pitching staff.

 

The predominant theory seems to be that the Twins have plenty of internal options to fill out their rotation, but need to look to the free agent and/or trade market to improve their bullpen.

 

I disagree. Not that the bullpen wasn’t bad (it was), but I disagree with that approach to fixing it. I would prefer to fix the bullpen by improving the rotation even more.

 

There are four pitchers that you have to figure should be locks to open in the Twins’ rotation. Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes will, unless traded or injured before then, open the year as Twins starters.

Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Tommy Milone, Jose Berrios and Ricky Nolasco all have starter pedigrees, in the minors and/or Major Leagues, and any of the five could earn the Twins’ fifth rotation spot. But if the Twins are set on being more than just a borderline contender in the American League Central Division, you have to ask yourself whether they could do better than those five pitchers in that final rotation opening.

 

Now, I’m a Zack Greinke fan from way back. After the 2010 season, I advocated here for the Twins to engineer a trade with the Royals to acquire Greinke. Five years later, I’d still love to have him at the top of the Twins’ rotation, but the Twins are not going to shell out the $25+ million per year over 5+ years that is being projected as being what it will take to sign the free agent - alas, nor should they.

 

Likewise, you can pretty much rule out names like Price, Cueto, Samardzija and Zimmerman, all of which are likely to garner $100+ million/5+ year deals on the open market. That’s an awful big commitment to make to pitchers who, in each case, come with some significant question marks about their abilities to perform at “ace” levels for the next half-decade. Only Price, in my view, is worth that kind of money. Unfortunately, he won’t be had for that kind of money – it will likely take over $200 million to get him. Ouch.

 

Berrios is a future Twins starter. May and Meyer could very well be future rotation fixtures, as well. The big unknown, in each case, is the definite arrival time of that future. We just don’t know. It could be April, 2016, and if it is, for just one of those pitchers, then the rotation question is asked and answered.

However, like the situation with Sano as a full time third baseman, relying on any of the five possible fifth starters currently on the roster to be good enough to help propel the Twins into an elite-level team in 2016 is pretty risky.

 

If Ryan decides to take that risk, it’s fine with me, but I wouldn’t mind seeing the Twins take a one-year flyer on Doug Fister, who certainly will be looking for a make-good contract to rebuild his value with an eye on trying free agency again next year. Two years ago, Fister was traded to Washington after 2 ½ successful years in a Tigers uniform. Had he been a free agent a year ago after notching a 2.31 ERA over 25 starts for the Nationals, he’d have undoubtedly been near the top of every team’s free agent starting pitcher wish-list.

 

But he was Washington property for another year and he did not live up to expectations in 2015, to put it mildly. He lost his starting rotation spot as the dysfunctional Nationals faltered and he finished the season working out of the bullpen.

 

Could a return to the familiar AL Central spur a revival of Fister’s starting career? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t mind if the Twins spent $10-15 million or so to find out. At that price, they can afford the risk. If it works out, he’s more than just another fifth starter. If it doesn’t work, all they’ve lost is a few bucks and they move on with whoever is looking the best from among the internal options.

 

With a rotation of Santana, Duffey, Gibson, Hughes and Fister, you are left with a lot of pretty strong options to improve your bullpen.

 

Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen will be there. You have to be concerned with the way Perkins pitched the last half of 2015 and I’m not certain Jepsen is really as good as he looked after being acquired from the Rays, but those two will be cornerstones of the 2016 relief corps, if they’re healthy.

 

Now, just for fun, plug the following five arms into the bullpen: Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Tommy Milone, Jose Berrios and Ricky Nolasco.

Yes, that leaves just Perkins and Milone as lefty arms, so I’d like to see Logan Darnell make the team, meaning Nolasco is cut loose or one of Meyer/Berrios is kept in Rochester to stay stretched out in case there’s an early hole to plug in the rotation.

 

No team survives a season without running 7-10 pitchers through their rotation during the year and all five of these guys could work their way into starting roles either by their own performance or attrition among those who open the year as starters.

 

But the point remains that the Twins have pitching that is capable of bolstering their bullpen and I’d spend $10-15 million to take a chance on Fister improving the rotation. Then, as the dominoes fall, quality internal pitchers are pushed to the bullpen.

 

To me, that’s preferable to making multi-year commitments to one or more of the flavor-of-the-month relief arms available in free agency when the Twins have guys like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, J.T. Chargois, Taylor Rogers, Zach Jones, Alex Wimmers and Mason Melotakis (to name just a few), any of which could become high-quality internal bullpen options before 2016 is over. Even 2015 top draft pick Tyler Jay, who will be given an opportunity to work in a minor league rotation somewhere to start the season, could be called on for a big league relief role, if needed at some point.

 

The best free agent bullpen arms will command large, multi-year deals, which the Twins should not invest in, and the next tier on the open market are no more likely to provide consistent quality relief innings than the Twins’ own internal options.

 

The bottom line, for me, is that Terry Ryan can get Park signed, make a deal with Fister, then go on vacation, as far as I’m concerned. If he can get someone to take Nolasco’s contract off his hands, terrific, but otherwise, I’d be content to head to spring training with that roster.

6 Comments


Recommended Comments

DocBauer

Posted

For the most part, I agree with you. But I do have to put my two cents in.

 

1* This team needs another OF for depth and competition. Originally, with Hicks around, I had leaned toward a LF bench bat. Now, however, with Rosario, Kepler on the way and Arcia still probably in the mix, I think a RH bat to play, PH, etc, should be brought in. Chris Young would be excellent, but Ryan Raburn or Jeff Francoeur may be more practical. (Marlon Byrd for 2016's version of Hunter?)

 

2* Trade or FA, this bullpen could really, really use one more top arm for the end of the bullpen to join Perkins and Jepsen. This big three could/would give the Twins a very strong 8th & 9th. It would seem May or Duffey, more than likely, for the 2016 season but not necessarily beyond, would be in the pen. May showed his potential in the role last season and Duffey has extensive past experience as a reliever. With a bit of luck, Runzler will be a really nice signing. That's five. Tonkin? Pressly? Graham? Fien no longer an 8th inning guy? Solid options to work with there. Milone, Rogers, Darnell and O'Rourke offer other options from the port side.

 

I believe there is the makings of a very nice bullpen with that one more addition and the likes of Burdi, Reed and others ready at some point.

 

3* Were this before the '14 or '15 season, Fister could be a smart move. But not now. Not with Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Duffey, May, Milone and possibly Meyer available. (This doesn't include Nolasco who we may be stuck with)

Rosterman

Posted

The Twins could move pieces still: Pinto, Arcia, Nolasco, any number of back-of-the-pen relief pitchers. Plouffe could be shipped out. Ryan could end up turning over 30% of the roster.

 

But what does he get in return? Do we get a slugging outfielder/DH (think Thome) who is year-to-year. Take the palce of Vargas, perhaps. Do we get a lowend Plouffe who can play the infield AND outfield to be our fourth outfielder? Do we contemplate trading Suzuki and getting still anotehr catcher worse than Murphy but better than Fryer? Is there a bullpen arm that we can have for one year (Storen from the Nats, perhaps) so as not to block the hot young guys supposedly in the wings?

 

Is Nunez gone? Is Fien needed? What happens to Milone? I would trust Duffey as a starter.....but would you? Is May that third bullpen arm we need to take us thru next season? But do we need a power lefty?

 

And how do we get Mauer back to the Joe of old. Sigh!

 

dbminn

Posted

SDBuhr, I like the idea of Berrios starting the season in the bullpen. I also agree that a good team has pitching depth at both the MLB and MiLB levels.

 

I would not sign Fister. He's had two years of decline in his underlying stats (fastball velo <87 mph, ground balls, Ks). My preference is to trade for one RP and sign or trade for a 4th OF. I'd take a chance with the other nine available starters. I would trade Plouffe if the deal is right but I have no problem keeping him in Minnesota if there are no decent offers.

nytwinsfan

Posted

Time to make a call. Either Sano is going to be able to play third or he's not. If you keep Plouffe then Sano isn't going to get a chance to play 3B, at least not every day where he can really show you his ability. At some point you have to stop hedging and make a call. Now is likely that time. If you think you can get more value for Plouffe mid-season, then I guess you could keep him for the first few months and split Plouffe and Sano between 3B and OF, but boy, you better be convinced you'll get more value mid-season to make that worth it. If not, trade him this offseason.

nytwinsfan

Posted

 

Plouffe could be shipped out. Ryan could end up turning over 30% of the roster.

 

But what does he get in return? Do we get a slugging outfielder/DH (think Thome) who is year-to-year. Take the palce of Vargas, perhaps. Do we get a lowend Plouffe who can play the infield AND outfield to be our fourth outfielder? Do we contemplate trading Suzuki and getting still anotehr catcher worse than Murphy but better than Fryer? Is there a bullpen arm that we can have for one year (Storen from the Nats, perhaps) so as not to block the hot young guys supposedly in the wings?

We would trade Plouffe ideally for pitching, either in the form of a good reliever or a pitching prospect. We don't need another DH or OF bat. Well, we could use a 4th OF for the first half of the season, but I don't want to trade Plouffe for just that. We don't need a 2B or SS, or middle infield prospect.  We don't need a 3B or long-term OF.  And with Murphy and to a lesser extent Garver and Turner, we don't need a C anymore. What does that leave? Pitching. And as the old saying goes, there is never too much pitching. Trade him for a good reliever or a pitching prospect.  Heck, through in Polanco (a MLB ready 2B) and get an even better pitching prospect.

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