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What if...?


Steven Buhr

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Twins Video

Here we are in the final week of the 2015 MLB season and the Twins are still in contention for a playoff spot. All things considered, that’s pretty incredible. Virtually none of us expected this when the season began.

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/what-if-600x304.jpg

Hoped for it? Sure. We all hope for it. We’ve hoped for it for the past four years, too, but show me someone who went on record in April that the Twins would have a .500 record locked down and still be pushing for a wild card berth, then I’ll believe someone actually expected this to happen.

 

(This article ​was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

 

The Twins front office, their manager and coaching staff, and particularly the players, deserve a lot of credit for putting the team in this unlikely circumstance. Twins fans should all appreciate the hard work that has produced the most encouraging Twins season in at least five years.

 

And yet…

 

It’s really hard for me not to play a little “what if?” game. If the Twins are not able to overcome both the Astros and Angels to capture the coveted final American League wild card spot, they’ll almost certainly finish within a couple of games of doing so.

 

A couple of games.

 

That makes it pretty easy to go back and look for opportunities that were lost to turn enough losses into wins to put the Twins in the playoffs.

 

The easy part is looking at late game leads that were blown by a failed relief pitching, by a late error, by a baserunning mistake or by failing to capitalize on runners in scoring position. Those examples are easy to come by.

 

Then again, you can say that about literally every team that finishes just short of the postseason, every year.

 

Similarly, though to a lesser extent, fans of any team that falls just short can come up with strategic managing/coaching decisions that failed and, ultimately, led to enough losses to make a difference. Not every decision made by a team’s manager is going to work and when a decision ends up in a loss, second-guessing is easy and, with Paul Molitor in his first season as a manager at any level, there have been plenty of second-guess-worthy decisions to choose from if you want to find a couple of games that could have had better outcomes.

 

And then there’s the front office.

 

On August 3, I wrote about my disappointment with the lack of results from the Twins at the non-waiver trade deadline.

 

To demonstrate that none of us are above being second-guessed, I obviously undervalued the addition of Kevin Jepsen at that time. Despite being underwhelmed with the Jepsen trade, my biggest problem wasn’t the trade itself or the prospects that were given up for the reliever. My problem with it was that it was the only deal made.

 

It seemed to me that either General Manager Terry Ryan should have acquired more help for his manager to take in to the final two months of the season than just an additional bullpen arm or he shouldn’t have bothered going out to get even that much.

 

Clearly, Jepsen has been a life-saver in light of the free-fall we’ve seen from closer Glen Perkins. Without Jepsen, the Twins would have almost certainly been eliminated before now, so kudos to the front office for that deal. I was wrong about Jepsen.

I’m still playing coulda-shoulda-woulda, however, on the question of whether there might not have been one or two other deals that “coulda-shoulda” been made in July that “woulda” made more than a couple games’ difference in the Twins fortunes this year.

 

It’s an impossible question to answer, of course. And, to be fair, you can’t just throw out a name and say, “if the Twins had gone out and gotten this guy, they’d be playoff bound by now.” There’s no way to know that.

The primary positions most people talked about upgrading were shortstop and catcher.

 

But would any of the shortstops available at the time done better at solidifying the position than Eduardo Escobar has? That’s a debate we could have, but it’s certainly not a given that any addition would have been a net-gain over Escobar for the Twins in the win column.

 

Kurt Suzuki has struggled to control opponents’ running games, but catching is about so much more than throw-out rates that I think it’s impossible to say whether a change at the starting catcher position would have had a positive effect on the team over the final two months. We simply don’t know what effects that would have had on the effectiveness of the pitching staff.

 

Could the Twins have added a starting pitcher at the deadline? Sure. But you have to ask who would have been the likely odd man out of the rotation to make room for a newcomer. It doesn’t take much imagination to consider that it might have been rookie Tyler Duffey. The same Tyler Duffey who has been arguably the most consistent starter in the rotation over the final two months.

 

If the Twins end up falling short of the playoffs this week, it will be almost impossible for us not to ask, “what if?” I know I’ll do plenty of that.

 

Sure, we can pretty much all agree that this Twins roster doesn’t look like it’s built for a deep playoff run this season, anyway. With the young talent in the pipeline, maybe 2016 or 2017 will be more likely seasons for legitimate title contention.

 

But, as Twins fans have learned, you can’t for granted any opportunity you get to qualify for the postseason. You can’t assume other opportunities are just around the corner. Stuff happens and that stuff isn’t always good stuff.

 

So I’ll continue to ask, “what if?” I’ll continue to maintain that more help should have been brought on in July; that Molitor was not given the tools to make a legitimate playoff run this season.

 

I’ll also acknowledge, however, that it wouldn’t have been easy and that there’s no assurance that any such additional “help” would have necessarily improved the results. I’m smart enough to know that any additional “help” that would have been brought in might have actually ended up resulting in fewer wins, rather than more (see: Nationals, Washington).

 

In the end, I’m glad it was Terry Ryan making those decisions in July, rather than me. Ryan may not have done everything right and he’s certainly accustomed to second-guessing from people like me. It all goes with the GM job.

 

And we are still paying attention to the Twins during the final two series of the season. I’d almost forgotten how much fun that is.

3 Comments


Recommended Comments

DocBauer

Posted

Adding Jepsen earlier would have helped. I, like others, maintain they should have picked up a second arm. Benoit? Someone with an expiring contract wouldn't have cost much and would have provided much needed depth.

 

If we lose out by a game or two, all I'll be thinking is...."why, oh why couldn't we just throw out that first week of the season?"

BrianTrottier

Posted

A couple more wins would definitely have proven useful at this point in the year, but I'm sure there are a few wins that the local squeezed out that has other teams asking what if.

zchrz

Posted

Lets pretend you had access to a crystal ball during spring training.  When you asked it where will the Twins be Aug 30th and it said  82-76, 1 game back in the wildcard, you could make some pretty logical assumptions on how that came to be.

 

-Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana had solid years and led the rotation

-Kyle Gibson took a step forward in consistency

-Arcia/ Vargas/ Santana avoided crashing back to earth and turned in decent seasons

-Young stud relievers rode the fast track and replaced the place holder bullpen

-Mauer regained some of his old form

-Buxton/ Sano/ Rosario made cameos as September call ups

 

None of that stuff happened, instead the Twins find themselves where they are based on a molten hot streak during the first half, a frigid cold streak in the 2nd, and a major rookie boost that came early. 

 

This season has been unexpected and fun to watch but in the end if they do not make it my major what ifs will be

 

-What if Santana didn't get suspended and Pelfry never got a chance to entrench himself in the rotation?

-What if DanSan/ Vargas/ Arcia didn't have terrible years?

-What if TR built a bull pen not based around the core of Boyer/ Fien/ Duensing?

-What if Suzuki had a competent backup (or preferably was that backup)?

-What if Hunter/ Dozier didn't disappear in the 2nd half?

-What if Berrios had been called up?

 

 

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