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Jeffers and Catcher ERA


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By my eyes I believed Jeffers is better at handling pitchers than Caratini. I would even said the difference is significant.

I went to Fangraphs and Jeffers is a -1 for his cERA and Caratini is a +1. Yikes! My eyes must be way off. Sure enough Jeffers has a catcher ERA of 4.59 with Caratini at 3.88. Will the staff be in better hands with Caratini taking more of the load? Not satisfied I looked deeper to see if anything was skewing the data. Could it be one bad game? In my mind I trust Jeffers much more than Caratini. I looked at the four starters that have pitched the most. Their batters faced is much more than any other pitcher. Here is what I found.

Catcher Name PA OPS
       
Caratini Bailey Ober 89 .787
Jeffers Bailey Ober 143 .553
       
Caratini Joe Ryan 93 .485
Jeffers Joe Ryan 110 .672
       
Caratini Simeon Woods Richardson 44 1.237
Jeffers Simeon Woods Richardson 159 .893
       
Caratini Taj Bradley 76 .811
Jeffers Taj Bradley 123 .566

Abel, Prielipp , Matthews and Rojas were not included. Caratini has been his only catcher with an OPS against of .726. Jeffers has almost all of Prielipp's PAs with an OPS against of .592. Jeffers was the catcher for Matthews' start (.408) and the catcher for the vast majority of Rojas (.631) and his one start.

Caratini has the edge on Joe Ryan. Ryan is the pitcher coming into the season that needs the least help from a veteran catcher. Jeffers has the advantage with the three others and the advantage is a significant one. Jeffers cERA is tremendously skewed. Look at SWR and PAs. While SWR has been better with Jeffers those 159 PAS completely distort the cERA and Jeffers' resulting Fangraphs defense grade. It would not be hard for Fangraphs to calculate this skew in and give a more accurate number. They need to do better. Alternatively they might throw cERA out of the calculation completely. In this case it gives the completely wrong picture of Jeffers behind the plate.

I don't think my eyes are mistaken. Jeffers has done a great job of handling our young staff. I hope his work with them these two months will have a lasting impact on their development.

Data

 

5 Comments


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C-Gangster

Posted

really interesting article! Nice Work!

stringer bell

Posted

I remember one of the years that Jeffers and Vazquez alternated religiously that Jeffers had a slightly better cERA. Over a long season the randomness should be squeezed out. I think Jeffers is a pretty good handler of pitchers, he doesn't throw particularly well and at best average blocking and framing, but calling a good game makes up for most of his deficiencies. I don't know how long he'll be out, but for his and the Twins' sake it is before the trading deadline. 

jorgenswest

Posted

21 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I remember one of the years that Jeffers and Vazquez alternated religiously that Jeffers had a slightly better cERA. Over a long season the randomness should be squeezed out. I think Jeffers is a pretty good handler of pitchers, he doesn't throw particularly well and at best average blocking and framing, but calling a good game makes up for most of his deficiencies. I don't know how long he'll be out, but for his and the Twins' sake it is before the trading deadline. 

Do you think there is a  difference between the abilities Caratini and Jeffers to manage a game? I don’t disagree about the randomness of cERA with the many variables that impact it. I do believe there can be significant differences in the ability of catchers to manage a game with a pitcher. 

stringer bell

Posted

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Do you think there is a  difference between the abilities Caratini and Jeffers to manage a game? I don’t disagree about the randomness of cERA with the many variables that impact it. I do believe there can be significant differences in the ability of catchers to manage a game with a pitcher. 

I think the biggest part is randomness, but I also think calling a game and working with a pitcher are skills that can't be easily measured. The "working with the pitcher" piece might vary widely between pitchers. For example. maybe Jeffers really connects with Ober while Caratini brings out the best of Bradley or vice versa. Pitchers working with catchers they trust might have just enough more confidence to slip a strike on the inside corner with a 90 mph fastball. 

Twins GFP

Posted

On 5/19/2026 at 4:42 PM, jorgenswest said:

Do you think there is a  difference between the abilities Caratini and Jeffers to manage a game? I don’t disagree about the randomness of cERA with the many variables that impact it. I do believe there can be significant differences in the ability of catchers to manage a game with a pitcher. 

Personalities, trust, comfort... lots of intangibles can weigh into it as well

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