Since posting my first trade-target article, the Twins have remained hot. Although they trail Cleveland by six games,  Minnensota’s 48-37 record further cements them as buyers at the trade deadline. Other teams, however, are struggling as the trade deadline approaches. Three potential trade candidates from these teams could be on the move: the Texas Rangers’ Kirby Yates, the Washington Nationals’ Robert Garcia, and the Miami Marlins’ Tanner Scott. Each player is enticing for different reasons, and they could all strengthen contenders’ bullpens down the stretch. 

Kirby Yates

The reigning World Series Champion Texas Rangers are struggling, with a 39-46 record. They already find themselves seven games back in the AL West and are in contention for the last Wild Card spot. If their struggles continue, they may be one of baseball’s most shocking sellers. The Rangers have a surplus of talent, including right-handed reliever Kirby Yates. Yates is on his sixth team in ten years as he finishes his one-year $4.5 million deal with Texas. Although Yates averages only 93.1mph on his fastball, his underlying metrics are incredible. He’s in the 96th percentile for whiff rate (34.5%) and strikeout rate (34.2%), and he’s third in MLB in ERA (0.95) among pitchers with at least 100 batters faced. A 0.95 ERA isn’t sustainable, but few signs point to regression. Yates leads baseball in xERA (1.93), and he’s in the 99th percentile for xBA (.164), barrel percentage (1.7%), and xSLG (.214). As a 37-year-old reliever on an expiring contract, it’s unlikely that Yates shouldn’t fetch a massive package at the deadline if the Rangers decide to sell. 

Robert Garcia

Garcia has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this season. At first glance, his 4.44 ERA doesn’t stand out. His xERA, however, is 2.57 (96th percentile), a whopping 1.87 difference from his actual ERA. This difference is explained by his .375 BABIP, which is 11th out of 389 pitchers with 100+ batters faced. Garcia is already 28 years old but hasn’t yet accumulated an entire season of service time. He makes only $743k this season and is under team control until 2030. I can’t imagine that the Twins will assemble the type of package needed to snag Garcia, and ownership must decide between paying or trading prospects. Garcia meets a need for the Twins, as he has enormous swing-and-miss stuff (33.3% strikeout rate) from the left side. He could help offset Caleb Thielbar’s regression and replace him as the dominant leftie out of the Twins bullpen down the stretch.  

Tanner Scott

The Miami Marlins are just one game ahead of the NL-worst Colorado Rockies, with a 30-55 record. Few things have gone their way during the 2024 season, but Tanner Scott has been a bright spot. Miami has already begun selling (former-Twin Luis Arraez), and there’s no sign that they’ll stop there. Scott, like Garcia, is another dominant leftie. He has the lowest average exit velocity in baseball (83.4 mph), and he averages nearly 97 mph with his fastball. Along with his elite ability to induce weak contact, Scott is more than capable of getting swings and misses, with his 31.7% whiff rate (90th percentile). He also generates ground balls at a 51.7% clip (87th percentile). Scott is finishing his one-year $5.7 million deal with the Marlins, meaning the Twins won’t have to give up as much prospect capital as they would for other relievers who are under team control for more than one year. The Twins can afford to take on the rest of his deal, making this a possible fit. 

The trade deadline often brings unforeseen moves that shape the future of both buyers and sellers. For the Texas Rangers, Kirby Yates’s performance could yield some MLB-ready prospects to retool for next year. Despite his age and expiring contract, Yates’ absurd underlying metrics could land him in the back end of a contender’s bullpen. For the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins, the performances of Robert Garcia and Tanner Scott could land them some much-needed talent for their farm systems. Garcia’s unlucky BABIP and xERA could lead to some positive regression, while Scott’s ability to induce weak ground balls makes him a prime candidate to be a set-up man for a winning team. As the deadline inches closer, these players could be on the move, potentially changing the outlook of Major League Baseball’s postseason race.