In 2023, the Twins starting rotation was the strength of the team. So far in 2024, that has not been the case. Last year, Twins starters combined for a 3.87 ERA (6th in MLB), 1560 strikeouts (led MLB), and 1451.1 innings pitched (3rd in MLB). This year, the team’s ERA has ballooned to 4.14 (19th in MLB), while their starters have pitched 822.1 innings so far (6th in baseball). Their starters still lead MLB in strikeouts with 842, which could be a sign of good things to come. 

Joe Ryan has looked amazing so far, but he’s struggled after good starts in the past. Pablo Lopez is worse in almost every way compared to last season, but some advanced metrics point to future positive regression. Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson have been very good, but the Twins may not feel confident about sending them out to start a playoff game. The lineup and bullpen have carried the Twins despite some inconsistent starters, but once October comes around, the Twins will need another front-line starter to pitch in the playoffs.

Rangers Starters:
In my last article, I previewed the Rangers’ all-start reliever, Kirby Yates. Since then, the Rangers have improved to a 44-49 record, sitting seven games back of the AL West and 7.5 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot. The Rangers are a poor stretch away from their playoff hopes becoming increasingly unlikely, which is very possible with their next six games coming against the Astros and Orioles. If they become sellers, they may have the two most sought-after starters on the market: Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer. 

Nathan Eovaldi is synonymous with playoff success. In 17 career playoff appearances, he’s 9-3 with a 3.05 ERA, with 82 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. Eovaldi has a 3.10 ERA this season with 85 strikeouts across 87 innings. The hard-throwing righty generates swings-and-misses 32.5% of the time (85th percentile) while inducing ground balls 48.9% of the time (77th percentile). BaseballSavant’s run value, which is an accumulation of a pitch’s effect on an offense’s chance to score a run, qualifies two of Eovaldi’s pitches as some of the best in baseball. 

In 2024, Eovaldi’s fastball has a run value of 10 (95th percentile), and his offspeed has a run value of 4 (94th percentile). Eovaldi’s breaking ball run value is -2 (24th percentile), which leaves some room for adjustments. The Twins have played around with pitch splits in the past after acquiring new pitchers, potentially giving Eovaldi more upside than he already has. He is making $16 million this year and has a vesting option at $20 million next year if he throws 69 more innings this season. His potential extra year of team control would make it difficult for a team to pry him away from the Rangers, but the Twins have the ammo to do so if they’re willing to take on his contract. 

Max Scherzer is likely the best true rental among starters available at the deadline. Although he is owed $43.3 million in the last year of his three-year deal, the Mets are paying $20.83 million of that salary. Scherzer missed most of the first half of the 2024 season with a back injury, but since returning, he’s been solid in 23.1 innings pitched. Scherzer owns a 3.09 ERA with 17 strikeouts and just three walks. 

Although he doesn’t have the velocity he had earlier in his career, Scherzer still gets opposing hitters to chase 31.3% of the time while holding them to an average exit velocity of 87.5 mph. Despite this small sample size, Scherzer has an xERA of 2.74 and an xBA of .218. Scherzer has 171 strikeouts in 143 career playoff innings. Most contending teams should call the Rangers regarding Scherzer, but the Twins must do their due diligence on the 39-year-old starter (despite his no-trade clause), as they are in need of another playoff-caliber starting pitcher.  

Jack Flaherty:
After starting out hot, the Detroit Tigers have fallen back down to earth. They sit at 45-49 and will most likely be sellers at the trade deadline. Their recent regression has nothing to do with their new starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has enjoyed a career resurgence after signing a one-year $14 million deal this offseason. Through 95 innings, Flarhety has a 3.13 ERA with 119 strikeouts and 16 walks. Although his ERA is still great, Flarhety’s underlying metrics are even better. His xERA is 2.91 (89th percentile), while his xBA is .220 (79th percentile). His whiff rate (33.3%) and K% (32.1%) sit in the 94th percentile, while his BB% (4.3%) sits in the 95th percentile among major league pitchers. He has some of the best breaking pitches in baseball, as they’ve racked up a run value of 8 (96th percentile). With Flaherty heading for free agency after this year, one must think that the Tigers have no reason to keep him. The Twins should do everything in their power to go after Flaherty, especially if they strike out on the starters mentioned above. 

The Twins’ playoff success in 2023 was highlighted by strong starting pitching. Although others have stepped up this year, the Twins don’t have a starter that’s replaced Sonny Gray’s production. Starters like Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Jack Flaherty offer a veteran presence and prior playoff success that the Twins rotation lacks. The expanded playoffs ensure a seller’s market, and the scarcity of frontline starters available at this year’s deadline will make it difficult for the Twins to swing a deal. Ownership had the opportunity to replace Gray in free agency, but instead, they opted to cut $30 million of payroll. This is their opportunity to regain the trust of the fanbase by going all-in on a talented roster filled with upside.