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Which way should the Twins go for help?


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The Twins have struggled to score runs, that's no secret. The nine runs they scored on Saturday were the most they'd scored in the last six games. The offense is striking out at not just an alarming pace; but a record breaking one as well. They're currently on pace to catch the 2021 Cubs, who set the all time record. The Twins have 667 coming into today's game against TOR, in 65 games (10.26/game). Gallo and Michael A. Taylor lead with 62 each. But is this the Twins biggest problem and should it be something they try to address at the trade deadline?

The Twins pitching staff has been much better than the offense, well, the rotation has. The entire staff has the second best ERA in baseball at 3.46, just behind HOU at 3.28. The Twins as a staff are also number two in all of MLB in strikeouts with 617, behind TOR with 625 and second in quality starts with 32, behind only Seattle's 33. So what's the problem? The Twins are having one of the best season for pitching they've had in a decade. The problem is allowing runs late in the game. 

(Courtesy of ESPN, these stats are before the 6/11 game vs TOR)

So what inning has been the most problematic? If we use the graph below, it tells us the 7th innings. That's the inning that the SP usually gets pulled and the bullpen comes in. When you have Lopez with anERA over 4 that's a recipe for disaster. Factor in Jax, Pagan and Alcala and this bullpen has been total, garbage (outside of Duran, Headrick and a few select others.)

If the Twins have any hope of staying above .500 and winning the division and ending the 0-18 streak in October (you know which streak I'm talking about, and it's not The Undertaker's) they will need to acquire bullpen help. I truly think despite the strikeouts, the offense can scrap runs across, there's too many good hitters not too. 

My suggestion for Falvey and Co: Dont wait until the trade deadline to make a move. Do it now, build a lead in the worst division and baseball, and enjoy the summer. (Photo courtesy of ESPN)

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11 Comments


Recommended Comments

Devlin Clark

Posted

6 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

They need to DFA Pagan first thing.

I agree but somehow they won't. If they didn't last year, they're unlikely to this year. 

Karbo

Posted

Time to cut ties with Kepler. I've been a big supporter of his but its become obvious he is below the level of the others they have to replace him.

saviking

Posted

On 6/11/2023 at 11:09 PM, Devlin Clark said:

I agree but somehow they won't. If they didn't last year, they're unlikely to this year. 

If they don't then they need to be damn sure they only use him to mop up games we are either way ahead in or way behind. His brain goes numb in high leverage situations. 

weitz41

Posted

I like to see Kepler and Pagan moved. I want to believe they could get a 6 or 7th inning rental for one of them. Probably have to pay their wages to make that happen. Just cutting them loose is not in this FO's DNA. 

Aerodeliria

Posted

They do not execute in crucial situations (i.e., late innings). They make errors; they whiff three times with a runner on 3rd, they walk batters hitting .189, they run into outs, they fail to advance runners, etc. Of course, they all say they are one big happy family, but it seems like nine individuals each doing their own thing to me.

 

 

Jeff K

Posted

I agree, the Twins should go outside of the organization for a proven reliever.  I also firmly believe they should make internal moves with their lineup; and like most everyone, it should start with releasing Kepler.

Dave Borton

Posted

1) Dump Popkins and his two Lieutenants. You can't fire the team.

2) DFA Kepler

3) DFA Pagan

Promote on interim basis the batting coach job within the system who is doing the best job.

Promote Wallner to RF.

Promote the best BP pitcher from StPS. 

TopGunn#22

Posted

DFA Pagan.  Sign Anthony Bass who had an ERA of 1.41 in 48 games with the Marlins last year and then a 1.71 ERA in an additional 28 games with the Blue Jays after they made a deadline deal for him.  Kepler's value has cratered but maybe you could swap him and a minor leaguer to the Rockies for Randall Grichuk who has a low BBTV's value but would be a better RH outfield bat than Garlick.  Any Kepler move will be superficial.  Adding Bass with his track record of success and consistency would be huge for the BP and not cost the Twins anything of substance.  In the end, Buxton, Correa and Polanco need to play and hit.  I like what I've seen of Julien so far and a platoon of him and Farmer for 2B would be fine with me if the Twins could swing a trade with Polanco that adds something of significant value.  Polanco's BBTV is 36.10.  That kind of value should be able to bring something of solid value back.  It just depends on who we would trade with that needs an upgrade at 2B and what we could get back.  

Minny505

Posted

On 6/11/2023 at 3:08 PM, rwilfong86 said:

They need to DFA Pagan first thing.

I agree with you.

That said, the table the author used for the pitchers makes Pagan look like far and away their best RP. 

This is why analytics are important. If all you do is go off baseball card stats you won't find the context.

Devlin Clark

Posted

On 6/12/2023 at 5:56 AM, Karbo said:

Time to cut ties with Kepler. I've been a big supporter of his but its become obvious he is below the level of the others they have to replace him.

I thought maybe the ban shift would help him but it hasn't. 

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