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D.C Twins

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  1. D.C Twins
    Quick addendum: I refer to 'poo poo platter' for the relationship between the talent level of proposed players acquired/used versus the talent level needed to compete and win at the MLB level. The players on the MLB poo poo platter are phenomenal athletes in top 0.000 someting % of athletes and kudos to them. But unfortunately we are talking about what it takes to win at the MLB level.
  2. D.C Twins
    Trading Berrios was absolutely the right thing to do, because he telegraphed that he fully intended to go to FA. BUT, that had been obvious to anyone paying attention for quite awhile. As such, there should have been planning to have even more experienced MLB pitching under multi-year contracts going into the off season. In FA negotiations and trading discussions, we are going to look desperate, because we are. People who are desperate have much less leverage and generally are taken advantage of during negotiations. Finding 9 pitchers to fill a 3 x3 x 3 model is much harder than it looks. It is hard enough to be successful signing or trading for previously successful starting pitchers. Now, you are essentially having to bet on the fact that you can correctly identify 9! pitchers from the poo poo platter that have only lacked success because they did not have the depth of talent to pitch more than 3 innings. Even if you are great at it, you are probably only correct on 5-6/9 chances. Averaging one pitcher blowing out per game will lead to many losses and blow out the strategy quickly. No preexisting MLB starting pitching makes for a HUGE off season lift (with essentially no room for error). I highly doubt any FO would privately admit that this is a desirable strategy. I stand by the opinion that the Twins are at risk for disaster next season due to lack of long term planning for the rotation.
  3. D.C Twins
    With all do respect... a 'forward thinking front office' would not have allowed themselves to get into a predicament with exactly 0 proven starters on their MLB roster going into an off season. Kudos for them for trying to package 'we may have to go with a poo poo platter approach next year due to our catastrophic lack of foresight and planning' into 'i think with challenge comes opportunity' (did they get that line out of a spider-man cartoon?!). That verbal gymnastics could just buy them an extra year worth of salary... no shame in that game. This FO has done some very good things, but make no mistake about it, piss poor long term starting pitching planning is not one of them... and that lack of planning unfortunately is the odds on favorite for the cause of their demise at this point.
  4. D.C Twins
    Another great article Andrew! I hope you are a permanent addition to the TD writers. Well thought out, reasoned, and explained. First Buxton take on this site that could be possible! 20 mil-ish per year + playing incentives is in the ballpark and his team would at least take that call. Because the FO failed to have a long term SP plan, they are stuck having to take chances and Rodon is as reasonable as any. Going into an off season with exactly 0 proven MLB starters is an epic fail (any free agent or trade partner will know that we are desperate and try to take advantage). I like Ober and Ryan but we have yet to see how they will respond when the league has an off season to adjust or how they will hold up over a long season health wise (remember than we though Dobnak would be a stater last season!). Most likely outcome is than one is an effective starter next year and one is not and we should plan for that.
  5. D.C Twins
    I cannot remember which poster first brought this up but they absolutely nailed the conundrum this off season. There is a HUGE gap between the readiness of our line up and our pitching staff to compete next year. This makes planning confusing. When looking at the team through the lens of the line up.... 'we could compete next year as is!!!!' When looking at the team through the lens of the pitching staff.... "Holy Crap...we literally have 0 proven MLB starters on our roster going into the off season. We have NO chance to fill all of those gaps + enough depth for injuries in one off season with our payroll. I actually think the FO has done a lot of good things, but one of their biggest failures is not figuring out how to keep the pitching and line up progression on the same time line (or anywhere close) Again, this was first brought up by someone else and I wish I could remember who so that I could credit them!
  6. D.C Twins
    Nice Job Nick! Verlander likely would not come here and frankly I'm OK with that. I don't see us contending next year, so I'd rather put that 20 mil into a 3-ish year contract for an above average pitcher who would still be around after we (hopefully) build another window to open up (and the hubcaps could certainly come off Verlander this year). I think the planning strategy for Lewis should be somewhere in between the doubters (like me who are concerned he may never be a high impact MLB player because of his poor hitting against MiLB) and rainbow/skittles optimists who think he could be up mid-year. Maybe, 'unlikely to have an MLB impact this year but optimistic for next year'? I've been much more snarky in previous posts. But, being more collegial, it would be shocking to me if Buck bet on himself all the way to 1 year out from free agency and then elected to 'sell low' on himself after another injury plagued season. I believe that he has his management are willing to bet on him being healthier and more productive this year to put him in a very nice position as he hits the open market. Again, when team waits to extend just one year out of FA, they have to come VERY close to what a player and their management believe that they can get on the open market. (which for Buck I believe will be A LOT more than 84 mil). I want Buck, but it will likely take a significant amount of guaranteed money (120mil min), for him to bypass an opportunity on the free market at this point. (That swing is so sweet and compact now....I am very bullish on his future as I suspect other teams will be as well)
  7. D.C Twins
    Point #2 from the above post. I do believe it is tremendously difficult to fill 4 SP spots! Realistically if you want a legit contender, one of Ober or Ryan should be penciled in for #5 with the rest going to more sure things. I am high on both Ober and Ryan, but it would be a mistake to assume that they will both seamlessly become reliable starters next year (if so, GREAT... you have better depth for inevitable injuries) The bullpen, same problem. Some flashes of promise toward the end of the year, but if you depend on too many flashes of promise, you will inevitably be disappointed. Ergo... lots of proven bullpen experience would need to be added...IF we going to be honest contenders. These additions would far outstrip our anticipated budget (but trades could happen at the expense of the future for a questionable 2022 run) So yes, I do believe the pitching holes are too many to fill in one year. Again , I desperately hope that I'm wrong!
  8. D.C Twins
    It is totally fair for the FO and yourself to not be on board with signing Buck to a 5/125 extension due to obvious risks based on his history. It is totally fair to want to wait for more information. BUT... waiting also comes with a cost. When you try to extend someone only 1 year out from free agency, you have to almost match the ceiling of what Buck and his agent think they can get on the open market (with the likes of NY, Boston, LA, Angels, Chicago Cubs etc bidding). Players are more willing to take less money multiple years out from FA as a way to share injury risk with the club. Not-so-much 1 year out. I want to sign Buck....Total transcendent player....I just don't think the Twins will come anywhere near the price at this point. I desperately hope that I'm wrong! If a TD writer is interested in a great article idea.... research the history of players who signed extensions 1 year or less away from FA (with a focus on high level talent). That would be super interesting and may even disprove my position!
  9. D.C Twins
    Yesssirrr..... That is literally the purpose of the comment section... Or...perhaps better stated for you... it is my opinion that this is an opinion section for peoples opinions on other peoples opinions of sometimes of their opinions but other times just new opinions
  10. D.C Twins
    0% chance Buxton signs and extension. If an extension were to have happened it would have only made sense from his side 1-2 years ago. 0% chance of filling all of the holes in the starting rotation AND the bullpen. Poor chance of being meaningfully competitive next year.. SO..... Trade Buxton for great prospects. Call up Celelstino and let him learn on the job. Go with the kids in the starting rotation and see what we have in 2022 before signing FA in 2023. Ditto for our internal bullpen arms. Trade Donaldson for the best salary relief/prospect package available and let Miranda join Celestino. Let Sano try to be relevant one more time (nobody will trade anything for him anyway). Trade Garver (on borrowed time as 30 y/o catcher) and let Jeffers/Ro combo learn. Trade Kepler if there is a good offer (which there won't be so he stays). Sign one of the top 5 shortstops (good defense behind young pitchers while transitioning team into contenders....Also, Lewis is waaaaay far away and may never make it) 2022 for internal scouting and development.....2023 add what you learn that you need through FA/trades after 2022 information gathering. Regular season competitive with 1st round defeat in 2023 developing into playoff competitive in 2024 with potential for deep playoff run... That is the most realistic scenario to me. 5
  11. D.C Twins
    Sano claims that he is going to be in the best shape of his life EVERY year. Alas, if only long home runs counted for extra runs.... but they of course do not. Therefore, Sano will continue to be a liability through next year until we can finally be out from under his contract
  12. D.C Twins
    I think there is a reasonable chance that Ryan is the one that ends up as a shut down RP with his two pitch mix. If he cannot be a #3 or higher starter... I would transition him to that role pronto. Krill talent hype is legit.... BUT wrists are delicate and easily reinjured. I'm concerned about his long range health prospects Jax will be a great AAAA pitcher who can fill in as needed at the MLB level until he runs out of options... not a lot more....but nice maxing out of talent on his part! Good on him. I just don't see how Lewis will have an impact at the MLB level next year (or possibly ever). During his last full season he struggled in A ball with a 4:1 K to BB ratio... And that is before missing two seasons and a major injury. He has a much bigger chance of being a bust than being a longer term asset for the Twins. I hope I'm wrong. The only way we are playoff level competitive next year is if we have two Liriano like surprises come out of the minors. Not likely, but not completely impossible. Next year is going to be a development year
  13. D.C Twins
    I'm even more bullish on Celestino.... I think he is the heir apparent to Buxton in CF after he is traded this winter. I also think he will preform admirably next year in the MLB. (again... I don't WANT Buxton to leave the Twins, but he will leave on the open market, so the FO is obligated to get some return for hime)
  14. D.C Twins
    Um... 'fire and passion' is not the the same as 'fire and brimstone....emotional and angry', but thanks for playing! Most great leaders have a healthy dose of charisma and are able to adjust their approach and intensity to match what different players (employees, soldiers etc) need (not necessarily think they want at the time) in different situations. Rocco has not demonstrated this. Again, just curious, would you put any money on Rocco ever having another MLB manager position in the future?
  15. D.C Twins
    Umm... We were considered to be equally talented at the beginning of the year...so...yeah... Tony L and the White Sox had a fantastic season and made more than the expected progression with their youngish team. Us on the other hand wildly under performed, especially when the games actually mattered. During that stretch Rocco made obvious mistakes and mismanaged his bullpen, all while not deviating from his robotic demeanor. Again, Tony L has won with multiple MLB teams over decades. Rocco will never be a MLB manager again. You are right... Tony L is not a great example...he is an AMAZINGLY FANTASTIC example
  16. D.C Twins
    Rocco seems like a nice and knowledgeable dude. I think he works hard, prepares, and takes his job seriously. BUT, he is not great at making snap decisions in the moment during games and is prone to overthinking things. He is also not a great 'leader of men.' There is no fire or passion displayed or nuanced variance in his player approach to adjust to what his team may need at a given time (In response to the inevitable "you are not in the locker room," there has been absolutely no indication from media/players that he is any different behind closed doors) Unfortunately those are important traits for a successful manager. He was exposed by the tragic loss of Bell and the departure of his initial hitting coach. I'll give you all a thought experiment... when Rocco is eventually fired (and he will be).... do you think he will ever have another MLB manager job? If the answer is 'no' then he probably isn't the best choice for us now. What Tony L did with Chicago this year is no accident. A good manager shows up in results. I think Rocco would be fantastic as a bench coach or leading an analytics department, just not as an MLB manager
  17. D.C Twins
    Really an amazing 'get' for half a season of Cruz. Kudos to the FO on that trade! (But I do think Ryan will find that 70% will be too much fastball usage in the old MLB....he'll have to mix things up a little more against the best in the world)
  18. D.C Twins
    I actually have faith in Dobnak's long term viability as a 4/5 and feel comfortable penciling him into the starting rotation next year. I think his poor performance was somewhat related to injuries (immediately ducking to avoid incoming)
  19. D.C Twins
    Um... It would be business malpractice for Buxton's agent (and himself) to say anything other than he 'wants' to return. You NEVER purposefully remove a potential bidder for your services just in case they drive up the price from somewhere else where you want to go. You cannot take what someone tells you at face value... almost anywhere (insert ANY cable news show here). Remember, even your parents told you Santa Claus was real There were A LOT of people on this site pontificating about how Berrios could/would be signed to an extension by the Twins... so I'm not sure that it is very fair for you to tell them that they were really not doing much thinking
  20. D.C Twins
    This needs to be repeated every thread with the hopes that Rocco will eventually pull his head out of his fourth point of contact
  21. D.C Twins
    All three points are true... He has less than 1% chance of playing for the Twins in 2023. Tag this post for posterity if you'd like Again, this doesn't make me happy but that doesn't change the reality. Incidentally, I also said early and often that Berrios was never signing FA contract with us either (and therefore needed to be traded) Wasn't happy about that either, but our level of happiness with a scenario unfortunately does not change reality
  22. D.C Twins
    I pains be to see the ongoing denial surrounding Buck. Contrary to what is put out there in the media...Buck does not want to and will not sign long term with the Twins unless they go well past market value (and they will not). He is not happy with: 1. The messing with his service time 2. The mixed messages and lack of a cohesive strategy surrounding developing his hitting within the organization 3. Most recently the Twins petty leaking of their 'offers' to save face. In addition, he does not want to or need to sign a hugely incentive based contract which shifts risk away from the team onto the player. A team will give him lots of guaranteed money on the open market because he does indeed have the potential to be a transformational player. He is not an older reclamation project who needs to sign an incentive based contract. He has MUCH more leverage that that! I don't want to lose him at all and will be profoundly disappointed, BUT we will lose him so we need to focus on getting maximum return.
  23. D.C Twins
    If we go into next year with Ober tagged as our #2..... Yikes! Look out below. He could end up exceeding all expectations and becoming truly dominant, but that is a hope and cannot be a plan
  24. D.C Twins
    No. For a deep playoff run, not even close. Unfortunately we should be building for most likely 2024 for the window to crack back open. Goal should be to debut a number of promising pitchers next year, build confidence and success in 2023, and be ready to compete for playoff type success 2024. That is if most things go right. Not a fun take, but very realistic.
  25. D.C Twins
    This! Please take a look back at his SO/BB ratio and his OPS from his last full season playing (in A mind you). Since then, he has not played in 2 years (AFL does not take precendence over a full season as mentioned previously on this thread). He is not in my top five and is actually behind Miranda as well so make that outside my top 6. His position could change based on performance like all the prospects, but with our current data there is no way he is the #1 prospect of the organization. I sincerely hope he returns to the #1 ranking in the future, but he's absolutely not that now.
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