nicksaviking

I started to be snarky and post this to a particular thread that was annoying me.  But I thought twice, and will post it here, in a vacuum.
What's The Best Logical Fallacy?
A famous Logic professor told me the Appeal to Authority Fallacy is the best.
Anyone who doesn't say the Ad Hominem Fallacy is best is a poopyhead.
Argument from Repetition Fallacy is the best. Repetition. Argument from. Best.
Begging the Question Fallacy is the best because it is superior to all others.
Cherry Picking Fallacy is the best; this message is all you need, to see that.
Circular Argument Fallacy is best because nothing is better than an argument that is circular.
Either the False Dilemma Fallacy, or pure evil, is best, ergo False Dilemma.
Everyone is saying the Bandwagon Fallacy is best, so it must be.
False Equivalence Fallacy is no worse than any other and therefore is the best.
Have you or have you not stopped using the best: the Loaded Question Fallacy?
I bet double my last bet the next one will say the Gambler's Fallacy is best.
I just heard about the Recency Bias Fallacy. It's gotta be the best one ever.
I mistyped another fallacy, so Hasty Generalization Fallacy is the best.
I used to think Stockholm Syndrome Fallacy wasn't best but I'm warming up to it.
I've had success with Proof by Example Fallacy as the best. This is Exhibit A.
If Affirming the Consequent Fallacy is the best, then I wrote this. And I did.
If the Slippery Slope Fallacy isn't the best, pretty soon we'll have anarchy.
If you loved me you'd let me call the Emotional Appeal Fallacy the best.
It can't be a best list if you leave out the No True Scotsman Fallacy.
It's your job to prove the Burden of Proof Fallacy ISN'T the best. Not mine.
Super geniuses Dunning & Kruger invented the best Fallacy, Overconfidence Bias.
The Appeal to Nature Fallacy is best - it's only natural.
The Black and White Fallacy is either the best, or else all logic is wrong.
The Ipse Dixit Fallacy is best, full stop, case closed.
The Red Herring Fallacy is the best because, oh look, a squirrel!
The Straw Man Fallacy is the best because my opponent intends to outlaw it.
The Sunk Cost Fallacy is best and it's too late to pick a different one anyway.
The Survivorship Fallacy is best because it saved my life.
The long-neglected Appeal to Pity Fallacy is the one to support as best.
To deny Moral Equivalence Fallacy as the best is just like robbing a bank.
The Tautology Fallacy is best. When outlawed only outlaws will have Tautologies.

On Friday the Twins went out and struck a deal with the Miami Marlins trading LHP Kade Bragg for 1B Eric Wagaman. Wagaman who just completed his rookie season at age 28 is a solid backup for the Twins for 2026, Wagaman doesn't hit for power, or average really. But having him on the bench is better than not having a backup. Kade Bragg, the return for Miami was drafted by the Twins in the 17th round of the 2023 Draft out of Angelo State University. Bragg had a very solid season out of the pen for Double-A Wichita, posting a 3.22 era in 22 1/3 innings with a WHIP around 1.00. He could be a potential reliver for the Marlins pen in the future being only 24. 
The day after, the Twins went out and signed SS Orlando Arcia to a Minor League deal. Arcia who played with the Braves and Rockies in 2025 was a worse hitter than usual posting a 33 wRC+ compared to his career average of around 80. Arcia was an All-Star in 2023 having a 1.7 WAR that year. What does this mean for the Twins though? Well if the current starting SS Brooks Lee struggles we may see Arcia in more than a few games in 2026 for the Twins. 

How about a sports movie where a bunch of misfits are put together on one team and they somehow come together to win it all? *Yawn!* We've seen that already at least a dozen times.
What if they don't band together for the love of the game or each other, but out of pure spite for their money-grubbing boss? 
Now you have something. Major League!
Major League came out in 1989, which is right in the golden era of baseball movies. It doesn't hang its hat on nostalgia or pure love of baseball, but on comedy and it does it very well. There are so many great one-liners in this movie that I call it the Caddyshack of baseball. 

The plot for Major League is pretty simple. The owner of the Cleveland Indians dies and his "Vegas beauty" of a young wife, Rachel Phelps played by Margaret Whitton, inherits the team. She isn't a Cleveland kind of gal so she tries to put together the worst team imaginable so attendance will drop to the point where she can move the team to Miami. Here's the lineup:
Pedro Cerrano (played by Dennis Haysbert) - A power-hitting outfielder from from Cuba that practices Voodoo and can't hit a curveball.
Jake Taylor (played by Tom Berenger) - A former star catcher with bad knees but a good head for the game. 
Willie Mays Hayes (played by Wesley Snipes) - A dude no one has heard of who shows up and can run like the wind. Base stealer that can't really hit.
Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn (played by Charlie Sheen) - A fireball-throwing pitcher straight out of the California penal league. The bad boy of the team.
Eddie Harris (played by Chelcie Ross) - The aging junkball pitcher who will put anything, including snot or KY, on the ball to get an edge. Big fan of Jesus.
Roger Dorn (played by Corbin Bernsen) - A big-contract 3rd baseman who cares more about his paycheck and lifestyle than the game or the team.
Lou Brown (played by James Gammon) - A first time manager that gave up his job selling tires to take the helm, but he had to think about it for awhile.
Once these guys get wind of their owner's plan, they grind it out and start winning just to prove her wrong and aggravate her. Maybe the current Twins team should watch this one.
On the field, the baseball is fairly good. Harris, the junk-baller, doesn't look super-legit, but it's good enough. Berenger looks pretty good throwing, Haysbert looks like he could play for real, and Charlie Sheen was a stud high-school pitcher and shortstop who looks legit on the mound. Reports say that Snipes had zero baseball skills outside of running fast and sliding, so they had to do some fancy editing whenever he had to catch or throw the ball. It works well enough that I never questioned it. But, seriously, we're not here for the baseball. 
The cast is fantastic. I'm not sure how they could have done better at just about any of the spots. They're all likable, funny, and disturbing in their own way. Plus, Rene Russo as Jake Taylor's love interest and Stacy Carroll as Susan Dorn fit right in. Gammon, as manager Lou Brown, steals a few scenes in an understated way. In fact, he's one of the best characters on the screen. But, as if this wasn't all the makings for a great baseball comedy, they brought in a ringer. In the radio booth for the Cleveland Indians is Harry Doyle, played by none other than Mr. Bob Uecker...and it might be the best thing he ever did in his legendary career (sorry Brewers fans). Throughout the movie, he fires one-liners as he calls the game that are absolutely epic. Who hasn't watched a wild pitch and said, "Juuusst a bit outside!"
When people ask the question, "What's your favorite baseball movie?" many, many people immediately say Major League, and for good reason. It is funny as hell while sneaking in one of the more exhilarating moments in baseball movie history, If you don't get tingles when they call in Ricky Vaughn to face his nemesis on the Yankees and he comes out of the bullpen while the crowd roars along to "Wild Thing" (The Troggs, not Tone Loc), you're a little dead inside. It's a great moment that made kids in 1989 immediately think, "What would my entrance song be?" For the record, mine would be "Blood of Heroes" by Megadeth. 
All in all, Major League, is a baseball classic that keeps you laughing and has enough baseball legitimacy to work. It's definitely in my top five.
Run Time: 1 hr 47 min
Scorecard: Homerun to the second deck!
IMDB Score: 7.2
Best line: Yikes. There are so many! My personal favorite is when Hayes makes a showboating basket catch and returns to the dugout, the manager greets him at the step and says, "Nice catch, Hayes. Don't ever f#$%ing do it again!"

Twins Amateur Draft Choices – The Griffith Years – Part II (1975 to 1984)
 
A month ago I posted an article on the results of the first 10 years of the amateur draft which would have been lead by team owner Clark Griffith.
 
I did an analysis of the first 5 rounds from 1965 to 1974 and found that:
11 of the 51 total picks played at least one game for the Twins
6 of the 51 picks never signed a contract with the Twins and were available in later drafts
34 of the 51 players drafted never played a Major League baseball game
The best players drafted and signed by the Twins were: Graig Nettles, Dave Goltz, Bert Blyleven, Eddie Bane, and Butch Wynegar.
During this 10 year period the Twins finished 2nd (1), 3rd (2), 4th (4), 5th (1), and 7th (2)
 
The 2nd 10 year period of the Griffith era (1975-1984) produced the following results:
 
1975
Of the 1st 5 rounds only one player made it to the major leagues and with the Twins, it was 1st round pick Rick Sofield.
The best player drafted by the Twins in that draft was Paul Mirabella, who did not sign with the Twins.
1976
10th overall pick in the draft, Jamie Allen, never signed with the Twins
2nd and 3rd round picks, Terry Felton and John Castino played multiple seasons in Minnesota.
4th and 5th round picks never made it to MLB
The best player drafted by the Twins in 1976 was John Castino
In the Secondary Phase of that draft the Twins drafted and signed Pete Redfern, who had a lengthy career with the Twins
1977
In rounds 1 through 5 only 1 player made the majors with the Twins and the other 4 never played an MLB game including 1st round choice Paul Croft
The player who had a career with the Twins was Roger Erickson who played 4 ½ years with the Twins and was traded along with Butch Wynegar to the NY Yankees for Pete Filson, Larry Milbourne, John Pacella and Cash in 1982
Roger Erickson was the best player the Twins drafted in 1977
1978
First round pick (16th overall pick) was Lenny Faedo, who played SS for 5 seasons with the Twins.
3rd round pick, Dave Leeper, never signed with Minnesota
The other 3 picks never made it to the majors.
Best players drafted were 9th round pick, Tony Fossas, who did not sign and 17th round pick, Kent Hrbek, who had a 14 year career with the Twins and hit a career total of 293 home runs. Kent was drafted out of high school from Kennedy High School in Bloominton.
1979
2 of the 5 picks in the 1st 5 rounds made it to Minnesota. They were 2nd round pick, Randy Bush, and 3rd round pick, Tim Laudner. Both had lengthy careers entirely with the Twins
1st round pick, Kevin Brandt (11th overall) was one of the 3 players to never play a major league game
Best player drafted was Tim Laudner
1980
The 1980 draft saw 3 players never making it to the majors
First round pick, Jeff Reed and 3rd round pick, Tim Teufel, both played for the Twins during their careers. Reed was traded with Al Cardwood, Neal Heaton and Yorkis Perez to the Montreal Expos for Tom Nieto and Jeff Reardon. Reed played an addition 14 years after the trade. Reardon had a 3 year career with the Twins racking up 104 saves.
Best players drafted were Tim Teufel (2nd round) and 16th round pick, Jim Eisenreich
1981
The Twins had 7 picks in the draft
Mike Sodders (11th overall pick) and two other choices never made it to MLB
3rd round pick, John Marzano, never signed with the Twins
Frank Viola was drafted in the 2nd round and had an 8 year career with the Twins and a 15 year career overall, where he was a 3 time All-Star, World Series MVP and Cy Young Award winner. Viola was traded to the New York Mets in July 1989 and the Twins received Rick Aguilera, Tim Drummond, Kevin Tapani, David West and Jack Savage.
Curt Wardle was drafted in the 3rd round and played 1 ½ seasons with the Twins before being traded to the Cleveland Indians with Rich Yett, Jay Bell and Jim Weaver for Bert Blyleven. Blyleven was drafted by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 1969 draft and would play with them for 6th years before being traded to the Texas Rangers in 1976. He returned to play 3 ½ more years with the Twins in his Hall of Fame career
5th round choice, Dave Meier, had a short 2 year career with the Twins and even shorter history with the Rangers and Cubs.
Best Players drafter were Frank Viola and 9th round pick, Steve Lombardozzi
1982
The 3rd through 5th choices in the draft never played in the majors.
1st choice (4th overall pick) Bryan Oelkers had a short, one year (10 games pitched) career with the Twins before being traded to the Cleveland Indians along with Ken Schrom for Ramon Romero and Roy Smith. He would play one season with the Indians.
2nd round pick Allan Anderson would have a 6 year career with the Twins where he won the ERA title in 1988 (2.45).
The best pick in the draft would be 2nd round pick, Allan Anderson.
1983
3rd, 4th and 5th round picks never played a major league game.
1st round pick, Tim Belcher, had a 14 year major league career, but none were with the Twins because he did not sign with them.
2nd round pick, Bill Swift, had a 13 year major league career, but none were with the Twins because he, also, did not sign with them.
Belcher and Swift were the best picks in the 1983 draft.
1984
2nd, 4th and 5th round picks never made it to the majors.
3rd round pick, John Verducci never signed.
1st round pick, Jay Bell signed with the Twins and had an 18 year major league career, but none with the Twins. The Twins traded Bell in August 1985 along with Curt Wardle (1981 3rd round pick), and Jim Weaver to the Cleveland Indians for Hall of Famer, Burt Blyleven.
Jay Bell would be the best player drafted in 1984.
 
Recap - This summarizes the 11th through 20th year of Calvin Griffith’s amateur draft history.
1984 would be his last year as General Manager. 1985 would see Howard Fox as the team president and Andy McPhail as the General Manager.
1975-1984 -
15 of the 52 players drafted would appear in a major league game
6 players would never sign with the Twins
31 players would never appear in a major league game
Best Players Drafted who signed
Kent Hrbek, Roger Erickson, Tim Laudner, Randy Bush, Tim Teufel, Jim Eisenreich, Frank Viola, Steve Lombardozzi, Allan Anderson and Jay Bell
Best Players drafted who did not sign
Tim Belcher and Bill Swift
1st Round Picks
Rick Sofield, Jamie Allen, Paul Croft, Lenny Faedo, Kevin Brandt, Jeff Reed, Mike Sodders, Brian Oelkers, Tim Belcher and Jay Bell
 
Recap 1965 to 1974 (Griffith’s 1st 10 years)
51 players drafted in rounds 1 – 5
11 played in the majors
6 did not sign
34 never made a major league appearance
 
Conclusion – Neither of these decades produced a vast number of major league players. With the Amateur Draft providing most of the incoming talent for an organization the Twins never finished better than 2nd place. Their best 1 – 5 draft pick was Frank Viola. They did draft Kent Hrbek in the 17th round and traded Jay Bell and Curt Wardle for Bert Blyleven . Jeff Reed was included in a trade that brought Jeff Reardon to the Twins.

We are closing in on Trade deadline season, that time when we all can fantasize about trading mid-level prospects for other team's stars. Before we get there though, we need to decide what this team actually needs and evaluate whether there are in-house options that can fill the bill. Trading at the deadline is always high-risk and very expensive in terms of prospects. It always cost more than you think to get another teams solid, mid-level veteran and they're often on expiring contracts making them mere short term rentals.
What Do We Need?
I think our needs are pretty straightforward. We have a pretty good rotation that lacks backend depth, about 75% of a good bullpen, and about 80% of a strong lineup that could really use another middle of the order bat or leadoff hitter. An addition in each of those areas be great. It would be helpful if the starter was left-handed, the reliever a viable seventh or eighth inning option, and if the hitter could play 2B or corner OF. I say the latter on the assumption that if we could bring up a hitter that can play well at second base, Willi Castro could be an everyday corner OF. He is actually pretty good out there in the field.
Who Should We Try In-House?
I actually think we may have solutions to all three spots presently on our AAA club. Looking at them from most likely to fill in house to least likely, at least in my view:
Let's start with the hitter. Brooks Lee has been tearing up AAA since he came off the injured list - .367/.421/.561 (.982), with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 9 walks against only 14 strikeouts in 107  PAs, 98 ABs. Published reports say that he had basically made the team out of Spring Training before his back seized up so he must've held his own against major league pitching, at least this spring. He could come up and be an everyday 2B and our primary backup SS, with Castro moving to basically an everyday job in LF. We could create space for him by either putting Kepler on the IL to give Lee a try, shutting down Larnach through the ASB so he can actually recover from the turf toe problem, or parting ways with Farmer through a trade or DFA. Also, another injury opens the spot. This run of good health won't last forever.
I don't think that Matt Wallner is likely to be the answer, at least not now. He is absolutely hitting better at AAA than he was but he has 86 strikeouts in 250 AAA at bats, an almost 33% strikeout rate at the AAA level. Over the last two seasons he has struck out 97 times in 269 plate appearances at the MLB level, an over 36% rate. I think you have to wait until the strikeout rate goes down in AAA to at least around 25% before you can give Wallner another shot, especially when you remember how bad he was in the playoffs, how bad he was in Spring Training, and how horrendous his line was at the MLB level to start the season (.080/.273/.240 (.513)) before he was sent down. I believe in Wallner as a future solid MLB player but I do not think he is a short-term solution and probably not a solution for this season IMHO.
Bullpen help? I think the answer is actually pretty obvious - Louie Varland. I understand why they keep him stretched out at the AAA level as rotation depth. I do think there's a way to do that at the MLB level by having him pitch some long relief like he did last week against Oakland. If the need arises for him to become a starter, you can start with having him as the "bulk" pitcher on the bullpen day and slowly build him back up. At this point, the best we can hope for from him as a starter at the MLB level is a series of 5 or 6 inning starts and his track record this year suggests an ERA over 5. I don't think he's the answer for the rotation help. I know he's trying to learn a changeup so he can be an MLB starter. He can do that in the off-season and next year's spring training so he can help the Twins now. I would call him up now and put him in the bullpen while telling him that they'll stretch him out and give them another chance as a starter next year. Again, putting him on the roster shouldn't be too hard considering how bad Thielbar is pitching which suggests an injury that should result in an IL stint through the ASB. He could also come up and take Cole Sands place. Once again, any sort of injury would provide the opening.
How about the rotation? That may be a toughest one of all. I don't think Louie Varland is the answer. Festa might be and Boushley could be the kind of guy who has that one great career year and we catch lightning in a bottle. If either one can come up and give us some innings with an ERA even the 4.5 – 5 range, that would be perfectly okay for a number 5 starter. I just read that even Paddack thinks he needs a break as he comes back from a second TJ surgery. Now is the time. Put Paddack on the 15 day IL through the ASB and call up Festa (my choice) or Boushley. Give him three starts before the ASB and see what you have. Only way to know if we need to trade for a starter. 
What To Do and When
I think we need to try our in-house options before this FO gets fleeced again at the trade deadline for a mediocre veteran or a pitcher with arm trouble. To me, the moves are pretty clear and the time to make those moves is NOW, not two weeks from now, NOW. Let's give ourselves a chance to really evaluate these guys so a month from now we know whether there's any chance that any of our in-house options can work, whether we need to be out in the trade market,  or whether we should just decide that this isn't our year to do much more than sneak into the playoffs and get bounced early.
In sum, here are the moves to make:
Brooks Lee up, either Kepler or Larnach to the IL (or, if possible, a trade of Farmer)
Louie Varland up for the bullpen, Thielbar to the 15 day IL
David Festa up, Paddack to the 15 day IL
I would make the move with  Lee today on an off day so he is available in Arizona. I would bring up Festa for Thursday's start place of Paddack, and would Il Thielbar later this week to bring up Varland since Louie just pitched and got blown out yesterday. Varland's probably not available till at least Wednesday or Thursday. The latest I would make these moves is next Monday when we return from this road trip but I think that is too close to the ASB to be helpful.
What you guys think of these moves? Are there others that should be made in addition or instead of these? Inquiring minds want to know your thoughts . . .

If you have seen my previous posts in this series, you may have noticed a trend. I like simple, clean crisp designs in baseball cards. And the 1988 Topps design certainly fits my preference. However, I would say it’s good not great. Above average is what I would say about 1988 Topps. (Someday I need to define my rankings better. I feel like I say good or bad and like or dislike too often.)
The 1988 Topps design shows the team’s name in capital letters centered at the top and behind the player image. In the case of the Twins players, the team lettering is yellow. The Twins cards feature the player’s name in an orange diagonal banner in the lower right of the card. That’s it for the fronts. Quite simple. The backs have an orange background with card number, player name, position, and biographical information at the top. The central part of the back has the player’s career statistics. The bottom of the back has some player trivia unless the player statistics cover too many years.
The 1988 Topps base set has the same number of cards as 1986 and 1987 – 792 cards. The Topps Traded set has 132 cards, also the same as 1986 and 1987. There are 32 Twins cards in the base set. While the 1987 Topps Traded set had nine Twins cards, the 1988 Traded set has only one, that of the player who shall not be named. The base set has a rookie card of Hall of Fame starting pitcher Tom Glavine. Gene Larkin is probably the best Twins rookie card. The traded set has more key rookie cards than the base set with the best being that of Hall of Fame second baseman Roberto Alomar.
I feel like this set has fewer plain old head shots and a greater number of action pictures. I prefer it that way.
Please keep in mind that this article frequently mentions and provides details of the 1987 season. This is because 1988 baseball cards are mostly of 1987 players.
MOST OBSCURE PLAYER
In 1988, the Twins were, of course, coming off the 1987 World Series victory. Therefore, I don’t think there are many players in the 1988 Topps baseball card sets that qualify as obscure. I really only gave serious consideration for most obscure Twins player in 1988 Topps to back up catcher Tom Nieto and back up outfielder Mark Davidson. As you can see below, I chose Davidson (#19).


In 1987, bullpens were much smaller – many times only five pitchers deep. This allowed teams to employ more positional backups than they do today. For instance, the Twins carried three catchers for much of 1987, including Nieto. There was also enough room on the roster for two or three extra outfielders. In 1987, Davidson was one of those. Rosters today have only four bench players, so things in 1987 were much different. Anyway, Mark Davison was drafted in the 11th round of the 1982 Major League Baseball June Draft. He played three seasons for the Twins. In 1987 and 1988 he played 102 and 100 games, respectively. Those appearances were often as a defensive replacement late in games. He was a particularly good defensive outfielder. His statistics in three seasons with the Twins were .219/.283/.287. He hit two home runs and had 26 RBI. He also stole 14 bases. His WAR was -0.5 and his OPS+ was a paltry 54. The Twins traded Davidson to Houston during the 1989 season for Greg Johnson, who never panned out. Davidson played three nondescript seasons with the Astros.
In the 1987 postseason, Davidson got into three games with only one plate appearance. In game 3 of the American League Championship series, he appeared as a pinch runner for Sal Butera in the 7th inning and was thrown out at home on a fielder’s choice. That was the Twins lone loss in that series. He later appeared as a defensive replacement in game 1 of the World Series, a 10-1 Twins win. His last game action of the 1987 postseason was a game 4 loss at St. Louis. He pinch hit in the 9th inning for the pitcher. He flew out to center field in a 7-2 loss to the Cardinals.
THE BEST
I don’t always select the most valuable Twins card in any set as the best, but in the 1988 Topps set I just like the Kirby Puckett base card (#120). He shows a stance where he is ready and poised to do something awesome.

In 1988, Kirby would go on to the lead the American League in hits with 234. He was 3rd in voting for the Most Valuable Player behind José Canseco and Mike Greenwell.
PERSONAL FAVORITE
For the 1988 Topps set, I am going to cheat and select two cards as my personal co-favorite cards. I love card number 609, the Twins Team Leader card because it shows a couple of my favorite players, Gary Gaetti and Ken Hrbek. But better yet, the back has records some of the important statistics of the 1987 World Series winners. Every name, a Twins legend.


My second co-favorite card of 1988 is the unique record breaker card featuring Hall of Famer Phil Niekro and Joe Niekro commemorating the pair breaking the record for pitching wins for a set of brothers. It is noteworthy that the Niekro brothers broke a record held by another former Twin, Jim Perry, and his Hall of Fame brother, Gaylord Perry.


These sets of brothers ended up with remarkably similar statistics. One of each set up brothers made the Hall of Fame (Phil and Gaylord). The Hall of Famers ended up within four wins of each other and their brothers finished separated by only six wins. The Niekros career win total was 539 versus 529 for the Perrys.
Phil Niekro         318 wins Joe Niekro          221 wins Gaylord Perry   314 wins Jim Perry             215 wins The Perrys each won a Cy Young Award (Gaylord won two but Jim’s came with the Twins in 1970). Having said all that, Joe Niekro was the only one to win a World Series and that was with the Twins in 1987!
What are your favorite Topps cards from 1988? I’d love to see your opinions, thoughts, or comments below.
Go Twins!

It feels like Twins fans would burn Target Field to the ground if the team trades  Édouard Julien this offseason — roughly a year after they traded fan favorite Luis Arráez. I myself would never do it, but I don’t think it’s such a crazy possibility.
Let me start by saying my opinion right away: I don't think the Twins should trade Édouard Julien. However, one thing intrigues me: how can we be so sure Julien is the real deal? When I remember the kind of rookie season José Miranda had in 2022 and then how his bat disappeared in 2023, I can't help but feel a bit apprehensive. What are the chances the same won't happen to Julien?
Many might say, "There's no evidence that Julien will slump". Well, was there for Miranda? When you compare some of Miranda’s expected numbers with the actual ones during 2022, you find out that the gap between them wasn’t large. I’m not at all an advanced stats specialist, but I assume such a small gap didn’t point out the kind of regression he had in 2023.

Expected stats aren’t meant to be predictive, but if there's a significant gap between a player's expected stats and their traditional stats, regression to the mean should be considered. Since Miranda’s gap wasn’t significant — nor his sample size —, his regression in 2023 is hard to understand.
Was his 2022, both at the majors and Triple-A, a mere fluke?
Miranda’s case is perplexing, and we might get some more definitive answers in 2024. But with his case in mind, I come back to Julien. Say you’re Derek Falvey, and you could go 12 months back in time from today, knowing everything that would happen this year. Would you have considered trading Miranda in December of 2022? If you answer yes, given how you know he’ll regress in the following season, then considering a trade involving Julien right now isn’t the craziest of ideas.
I must remind you about what I wrote in the first paragraph and repeat it: I would not trade Julien right now. Just like I wouldn’t trade Miranda — I still hope he can bounce back. To be fair, Julien’s rookie season was better than Miranda’s, as you can you on the charts below. But even though I wouldn’t personally do it, I must admit: it’s tempting. His trade value is at its peak right now. Provided the Twins would get a haul in exchange for him, I’d be okay with it.

And a potential Miranda bounceback is actually a big part of why trading Julien wouldn’t be the end of the world. If Miranda can figure it out and handle third base on a daily basis, you can simply move Royce Lewis to second. Sign, say, Mitch Garver to be your everyday first baseman, and use Julien and Jorge Polanco as trade pieces to bring in more pitching help. There you have it.
Not knowing if Miranda is, in fact, going to bounce back next year shouldn’t stop you from trading Julien in this scenario. After all, you do have Lewis at third at this moment and wouldn’t need Miranda to step in over there right away. But that would make trading Polanco a considerable risk.
Anyway, I, personally, wouldn’t trade Julien, but I understand why anyone would, and I don’t judge. If Julien’s rookie season wasn’t a fluke, the Twins might have in him a tremendous bat for a decade. And if Miranda can figure things out, this Twins lineup can become a serious threat.
What do you think? Would you trade Julien right now? If so, what kind of return would you expect?
 

There haven't been any exhibition games played yet, but all teams are in Spring Training and there aren't a bunch of free agents left to be signed. The Twins hope to bounce back from consecutive injury-scarred disappointing seasons and make the postseason. Here is my prediction for the 26-man roster that will play Opening Day in Kansas City on March 30th:
Starting pitchers (5): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. All five acquired by trade from other organizations. All but Ryan have injury concerns. First alternate starter figures is to Bailey Ober, with Louis Varland an Simeon Woods Richardson also waiting in the wings.
Bullpen (8): Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar.  Alcala missed almost all of 2022 and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to contribute. The choices here for the last two spots in the 'pen are Moran (mostly effective last year with the Twins, less so in AAA) and Henriquez, who had a cup of coffee with the Twins after compiling less than dominant numbers in St. Paul. The choice of Henriquez is a pick to provide multiple inning outings from a bullpen member. Moran looks like he could take a step forward and be a late-inning arm, but he's not established. The last two cut (and two most likely to make the club) in my prediction are Trevor Megill and Danny Coulombe. Pitchers with options in the 'pen will most likely be up and down several times--that would include Megill, Henriquez and Moran and perhaps Alcala. 
Catcher (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. Really no competition here. The questions going forward are how will playing time be split up and if either Vazquez or Jeffers spends time as a DH. The Twins have three AAA catchers with major league experience--Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco.
Infield (6): Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Jorge Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano. There are injury questions around both Polanco and Kirilloff. If either one is placed on the Injured List, Nick Gordon and perhaps Joey Gallo might get some infield time. Barring injury, it would be huge upset for someone else to make the team at the expense of the six infielders listed.
Outfield (5): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor. Gallo and Gordon might see some time in the infield. Buxton is coming off knee surgery and may be built up slowly this year. There has been much speculation about Kepler's future with the Twins, but he's still here. Trevor Larnach (also coming off an injury) will probably have the opportunity to play himself onto the team. If there is a disabling position player injury in Spring Training, I would think Larnach makes the club as a DH/corner outfielder. Also in the mix is Matt Wallner, who made his big league debut last year in September. 
There is a significant amount of change from last year. I am predicting that five players will make their Twins'  debut in Kansas City. There will be injuries and many more players will see time with the major league club. As many have commented, there is depth in the rotation and among the position players. There will be injuries and the depth will be tested at some points through the season. A lot of players will get a chance to show their skills before the season is over. 
There aren't many surprises listed in these predictions. Personally, I think that a nearly set roster is a good thing. I can't wait for the games to start and see what this group of players can do.

Although the Twins are really hurting for viable future catching yet it seems like Ricardo Olivar is totally off the Twins radar. In '22, Olivar was named the MVP of the FCL, FCL post season All-Star catcher and FCL player of the month in July. Although he's listed at catcher, where he played the most of his games, he still played a lot of games at CF and some at 2B and cOFs. He's also good defensively w/ above average arm.
Season Team Level Age G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA   wRC+         2021 MIN FCL 19 34 59 1 5 5 3 13.6% 28.8% .143 .290 .204 .339 .347 .336   92         2022 MIN FCL 20 40 154 5 16 23 5 11.7% 21.4% .256 .430 .349 .442 .605 .480   181 He got drafted in '19 but didn't start pro ball until '21 because of covid. Like a lot of these prospects during this time their development stopped & they became stagnant. The problem is he turned 21 last Aug, & that's a little old for rookie ball. My hope is like Endy Rodriguez exploding this year going from A to AAA, Olivar will do this coming year starting at A ball. Endy was Rule 5 draft eligible this year & Ricardo will be next year.
Ricardo didn't even make TD's honorable mention but he's been on my radar & I'll be tracking him this coming year. 

The Twins franchise has lost key games to many legends over time: Koufax, Yastrzemski, most of the 21st century Yankees, and... Eric Fox?

That name may not be familiar, but if you followed the 1992 season with hopes of a repeat championship, Eric Fox played a large role in crushing those hopes.
As they did in 1991, the 1992 Twins started slow in April, but warmed up in May and June, and finally took sole possession of first place after a marathon 15-inning win vs. Baltimore on Independence Day, July 4th. Entering a 3-game showdown with the second-place Oakland Athletics from July 27-29, the Twins held first place by 3 games, as well as the best record in MLB.
The series should have favored the Twins: it was held in the Metrodome, packed with friendly fans off the excitement of 1991, and two of Oakland's stars, Rickey Henderson and Jose Canseco, were hobbled by injury. In their absence, the 28-year-old rookie non-prospect Fox was thrust into the A's outfield and leadoff spot, just 3 weeks after his major league debut. But Oakland won the first two games, prompting Twins GM Andy MacPhail to say "It looks like God wants a pennant race." Fox contributed 4 hits in 10 at-bats over those two games, which kept him in the leadoff spot for the third and final game of the series despite the returns of Canseco and Henderson.
In that third game, 30 years ago today (July 29, 1992), Bill Krueger out-dueled Dave Stewart for 8 innings before Rick Aguilera came on in the 9th to protect both a 4-2 lead in the game and a 1-game lead in the division. Back-to-back singles brought up the potential go-ahead in Henderson, who would have been a logical hero, but baseball heroes aren't always logical: Henderson flew out for the first out of the inning. The next batter was Eric Fox.
The switch-hitting Fox hit a 1-1 pitch off the facing of the Metrodome's upper deck in right field for a 3-run home run, giving the A's a 5-4 lead. After the game, Fox said, "Definitely the biggest hit in my life. Twenty-eight years worth. He came inside on me, and I just turned on it. The first thing I thought was that I might have turned on it too much. But I had that certain feeling."
Dennis Eckersley, on his way to a Cy Young Award, retired the Twins in order in the bottom of the 9th to secure the victory, the sweep, and his 33rd save in as many chances that season.

The 1992 Twins quickly faded into second place, as God's interest in a pennant race must have waned.
But the hero Fox quickly faded too, finishing his major league career with a .198 batting average and 5 home runs in 290 plate appearances spread across four seasons. He'd show at least one more flair for the dramatic, though: on Opening Day in 1993, with Oakland clinging to a late 1-run lead against Detroit, Fox would hit a pinch-hit grand slam for insurance.
Does God want a pennant race in 2022? The Twins' most recent games against Chicago and Cleveland might suggest that, and the Twins are scheduled to play them a combined 17 times over their final 33 games. If there is a 2022 version of Eric Fox, we can only hope God places him on the Twins this time.

Hello Twins Territory. My name is Jason and I would like to introduce myself. I have been watching the Twins since…well maybe when I was a young boy in 1987. I’m currently living near North Dakota but will be relocating to downtown Minneapolis this week if the closing does not fall through last minute. I don’t need an Alex Colome type April 2021 on this one. I am hoping to do some writing about the Twins here on Twins Daily. Maybe daily, but maybe not. Let’s see how this goes for a bit first. I would enjoy meeting some folks at a game or anywhere else to talk Twins, life, your story, or mine. If you need a 90’s pop culture guy for some trivia somewhere let me know. I am in.
A little about my Twins fandom and some other random thoughts:
The Twins are one of my reasons I decided to relocate to downtown Minneapolis.
I do think Byron Buxton should get days off.
As long as the Twins are in first place, they are not trading Carlos Correa.
Joe Mauer was not overpaid.
I like hockey just as much as baseball. A good high school hockey game is fantastic.
Tom Brunansky was one of my favorites.
Scott Erickson too.
Ron Coomer making an All-Star team with an OPS+ of 82 is a wild ride.
I thought Marty Cordova was going to be very good.
Anyway, until next time.

36 years ago today, Twins fans had a frightening experience at the Metrodome. And Ron Davis hadn't even entered the game yet!
It was a Saturday night in April 1986, and the stadium was unusually crowded with fans for that era, with an announced attendance of 31,996. I'd like to report that a mass of Twins faithful had shown up to support a young, exciting team building towards a World Series championship the following year, but Howard Sinker in the next morning's Star Tribune likened it to a timeshare presentation instead: 125 vacations were being awarded to fans that night.

As the Twins built a 5-1 lead in front of that captive audience inside the Dome, a severe thunderstorm was happening outside. Roads were flooded and trees were downed in the metro area, but thanks to the Dome's roof, the Twins and Angels played on in comfort. That is, until Mickey Hatcher stood at the plate in the bottom of the 8th inning, when the roof began to undulate, heavy light banks to sway, and rainwater to pour on fans in several places. The next day's KARE 11 newscast likened it to "a scene from a horror movie."
Caught in the turmoil were these two Chippendales dancers, apparently:

Home plate umpire Ken Kaiser halted play and called the players off the field, while public address announcer Bob Casey told fans to remain calm and evacuate the upper deck. Despite the drama, fans were never in any danger, the Metrodome operations crew was quickly able to adjust the air pressure to stabilize the roof, and the game resumed after a 9 minute delay.
How did it happen? Jay Weiner broke it down in the Monday April 28 Star Tribune:

When play resumed, Hatcher scored Steve Lombardozzi with a sacrifice fly to extend the Twins lead to 6-1. Unfortunately, that is when the real disaster began. Frank Viola started the 9th inning by allowing a double and a home run to cut the lead to 6-3, and the Twins brought in the aforementioned Ron Davis to try for the save. Davis had begun the 1986 season with 5 scoreless appearances, but his previous outing was a five-run shellacking at the hands of this very Angels ballclub.
As might be expected, Davis was greeted with a single and home run to further cut the Twins lead to 6-5, before finally recording the first out of the inning. A Reggie Jackson pinch-hit walk and another out followed, to bring the Twins within one out of victory. But eventual Rookie of the Year Wally Joyner clubbed a two-run homer to put the Angels on top 7-6, and the Twins went down in order in the bottom of the 9th to end the game. This game turned out to be the penultimate 9th inning save opportunity of Davis' career; remarkably, he was still able to be traded to the Cubs in August 1986 with a 9.08 ERA for the season.
This game proved to be the final Twins weather delay at the Metrodome, according to Stew Thornley. Even after being wind-battered, the Dome further proved it was not broken by hosting the Twins and Angels again the following afternoon, although the final outcome wasn't much different: an 8-7 Angels victory, this time without the help of Ron Davis.

Happy Opening Week! As a Twins fan who was a kid during the Metrodome era of the aughts, I have fond, cherished memories of being swept away by the wind when the Metrodome doors were opened after games, the giant milk jug down the first baseline, the outfield curtain, Dome Dogs, and uncountable other quirks and joys. Though I have strong nostalgia for our beloved Dome, there is no question that Target Field is one of the most beautiful, scenic stadiums in the MLB. Nothing can compare to sitting out at a a game with your friends on a perfect 70-some degree evening, and Target Field certainly is a great place to do it. In celebration of our beloved team taking the field this week, here are some of my favorite things about Target Field:
1. The view of the city skyline from the 3rd baseline- I’ve gone to uncountable Twins games since Target Field opened, but I think I can count the number of times I’ve sat down the first baseline or in the outfield on two hands. There’s nothing wrong with sitting elsewhere in the park- they just don’t offer the same sweeping views of the downtown skyline. No, Target Field does not have giant tailgate lots like the Brewers or White Sox, but the stadium's location smack-dab in the middle of downtown Minneapolis makes up for it. The giant Target dog Bullseye wagging his tail in right field is also pretty cute. If you’re looking for something to do in between innings, try counting the number of times he wags his tail in a minute, then extrapolate that into month, year, etc.

 
2. Club Rayne during rain delays- There is nothing quite as groan-inducing as when the clouds roll in and the Target Field grounds crew descends upon the field with a tarp. However, rain delays are made much more tolerable- and even entertaining- due to the Twins opening up “Club Rayne” during each rain delay- a bit where the Twins throw a rain delay dance party and show fans dancing on the jumbotron to somewhat chaotic party music ranging from intense electronic music you might hear at a club to Michael Jackson. Last year during a rain delay my brother got extended screentime on the jumbotron by doing the Thriller dance. The Twins also find other ways to pass the time during rain delays; last year’s Home Opener was briefly stopped by a rain delay and Target Field played part of the NCAA hockey tournament that was happening concurrently. It looks like Club Rayne dates back to Target Field’s early days, so Twins fans have been dancing in the rain for almost a decade. I'm hoping for few rain delays this year, but if the clouds do open up, I'm ready to get down. 
3. The real organist- Target Field-goers may or may not be aware that the stadium has its own organ player- Sue Nelson- who has been the Twins’ full-time organist since 1999! Look for her upbeat stylings in the 2 Gingers Pub located near sections 214-216. In a game that's constantly evolving, having an organ played live is a sweet nod to the game's longstanding traditions- similar to the players wearing button-up shirts, fans singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame," and coaches wearing baseball uniforms just like the players. Today, about 50% of MLB ballparks have a live organ player, so Nelson is one of the many reasons why Target Field is so special and unique.
4. Friday night fireworks- The Twins light up the downtown skyline with postgame fireworks every Friday night game from June to August. They are impressive shows that are accompanied by music- often tying in with the game’s theme (Star Wars songs for Star Wars night, for example). The downtown skyline and the Minne and Paul sign are simply a gorgeous backdrop to the show. The St. Paul Saints also do Fireworks Fridays too. It feels a little strange following up a Twins or Saints loss with fireworks, but the show must go on! Going to these Friday games is one of my favorite summer things to do with my friends because the show is a perfect, multicolor cherry on top to a beautiful evening. 
 

5. Minnie and Paul shaking hands after a win- Adorable and unique. I really enjoy how Target Field ties in both tradition with modernity (now to get the Twins to start wearing the “M” hats again).  Now that the Saints are over across the river, our favorite centerfield staples seem even more applicable. I also love how they play the same song after every win- 'On Top of the World' by Imagine Dragons.
6. Artwork outside the stadium- It is clear that the stadium was planned with painstaking detail; even the outside is lovely and unique too. The outside of the stadium is lined with murals and is surrounded with sculptures ranging from Kirby Puckett's iconic homerun trot to the giant glove that fans commonly sit inside to take pictures. Next time you're early for a game, take a lap around the outside of the stadium- I realized at one point that because I always park in the same spot and go in the same entrance, I didn't even quite know all that was there!
7. Cool giveaways- Though the Twins run a lot of special theme night packages, they still have some cool fan giveaways. The Twins always treat Opening Day fans right by giving away quality items like a Twins puffer vest or hooded zip-up sweatshirt. My siblings in particular love going to bobblehead days. Last year I showed up way early to get a baby blue giveaway jersey. Albeit thin material, it is a quality giveaway and will look great with a little ironing. It even has buttons and the patches!
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8. The Mascot Race- I love the Mascot Race and taking harmless bets with my buddies on who is going to win (I usually pick Bullseye- the Twins gotta uphold that Target sponsorship so the odds should be good, ya know?) I like Gracie the Gray Duck probably the best though. On Sundays the mascot race is run by cute kinds who rather than wearing the full mascot costume are just wearing mini versions of the mascot heads. The best was when the Twins had fans text in their pick for the race and if they won, they would get a coupon for something free like sunscreen or Oreos at Target. Let's bring that back, eh Twins?
9. Twingo and the Pick 3 Game- I have never won either but have come close. These are fun ways to be even more invested in the game and pay attention to the game's happenings. My Pick 3 strategy is to pick players who others are not likely to pick. Everyone is going to pick Buxton, so I gotta gain an edge somewhere, right? Then again, like I said I have never won, so proceed with my advice with caution. 

10. Dollar Dog Night- Nothing beats getting dinner- or following dinner up- with a dollar dog (or two or several). My friends and I enjoy going to these Dollar Dog games and buying round of hotdogs like people do with drinks at bars. They are delicious but not filling, so the amount of Dollar Dogs I could put away if I wanted is dangerous. Last year on a couple occasions I remember the Twins even toasted the inside of the hotdog bun! Not bad for a buck. 
 

 
That's it for now! I can't wait for another season of games at this beautiful stadium. What are some of your favorite things about Target Field?
 
 
 
 

Among my friends, I’m known as being a bit of a Minnesota sports optimist. I’m the type of person who, when it’s at the end of the NFL season and the Vikings hold a 11% chance of making it to the playoffs IF the Vikings beat the Packers at Lambeau, the Washington Football team beats the Eagles, AND the terrible, tanking Texans beat the Niners, I’m all in on following those scenarios.
Next week sounds like it will feature a marathon of bargaining sessions as the MLB and its owners and the MLB Players Association work to iron out differences in their CBA proposals. However, unless things really begin to pick up, we might be looking at the reality of a shortened regular season. But could a shortened season be good for the Twins on multiple fronts? Here is a look at a shortened season through an optimistic lens.
1. Smaller sample size
One of the truths of baseball is that most things tend to even out to their natural state by the end of the season in a theory called "Regression Towards the Mean." In all sports, there is certainly some luck involved. However, in baseball and its gauntlet of a 162 game regular season, over the long run most things average out, including batting averages, pitching performance, and wins for a team. But what happens if the season is short enough that things can’t regress to that mean? What if the Twins start hot and then just stay hot?
Twins leadership has maintained they anticipate being competitive in 2022 despite trading José Berríos to the Toronto Blue Jays at the MLB trade deadline last season and not pursuing any flashy free agent starting pitchers before the lockout commenced (we hardly ever do). I am not saying that I do not anticipate the Twins being competitive this season, but our favorite ballclub certainly has their work cut out for them once the lockout ends, including a pressing need to sign two starting pitchers, a starting shortstop, and a late-inning reliever. 
Thus, with such an uncertain rotation, glaring roster holes, and the jury still out on the future of some of their prospects like Royce Lewis, maybe the smaller the sample size for the Twins, the better. It seemed that last season was a perfect storm for the Twins in which the majority of their players were slumping or injured all at the same time. It is feasible the opposite could happen- multiple players could have career seasons. Maybe less games in 2022 would be beneficial to the Twins and if they started hot, would not allow them to regress to a mean which included statistics like finishing the 2021 season with the 17th best batting average at .241 and the 26th best ERA at 4.83. A somewhat anecdotal example illustrating sample size- do you favor the Twins' odds more in a one game playoff with the Yankees or a full series? ("Neither" is not an acceptable answer, thank you very much). There's sample size for ya.
Another note- the last time the Twins won the division it was in a small sample size 60-game season. More on that later.
2. Less injuries for star veterans
A shortened season would also benefit the Twins because less games means less wear and tear on their injury-prone stars. Josh Donaldson has struggled with recurring calf issues throughout his career- in a July 2020 Instragram post, Donaldson acknowledged that he’s torn “both of my calves a total of seven times in two years.” Calf issues held him to 28 games in 2020 and forced him to sit out of the playoffs that year. During the full 2021 season, Donaldson got in 135 games but was bothered by hamstring issues. He will be 36 for the 2022 season, and while he still can bring the rain, there is little doubt less games would be of great benefit to him.
The most evident beneficiary of a shorter season is Byron Buxton. To be clear, I was incredibly excited about the Buxton extension and did not remotely believe his injuries were a reason to not resign him, as many of his injuries have stemmed from somewhat freak occurrences like getting hit by a pitch (2020 and 2021) or fouling a ball off his toe (2018). To me, it is unfair to label him as being "made out of glass" from these instances of bad luck that could happen to anyone. Regardless, in looking at his game log through his entire Twins career- he has played triple digit games only once- 140 games in 2017. It is inarguable that the Twins are a much better team when Buxton is in the lineup; since the beginning of 2019, the Twins have played at a 99-win pace when Byron Buxton is in their starting lineup and an 81-win pace when he isn't. Therefore, less games would mean less wear and tear on their star centerfielder's body, which hopefully would result in him being in the starting lineup more regularly. More Buxton starts, more wins.
3. Games (almost) solely against AL Central teams

In 2020, the MLB faced another shortened season with only 60 games played due to the pandemic and boy, did it work out well for the Twins. During this season, the Twins played 10 games vs each of their four AL Central opponents and 20 games against NL opponents. The Twins won the American League Central division title for the second year in a row and had winning or .500 records against each of their AL Central opponents. The Twins were 13-7 in the 20 NL games they played. Maybe they just do better when avoiding beatdowns from the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Athletics- if you can imagine that (sarcasm). A shortened season would probably follow a similar model; with little time to waste, divisional games would be prioritized.
If you dig into this 2021 wins matrix, you will see that despite the Twins having a decidedly disappointing season with their 73-89 record, the Twins played disproportionally well vs each of their AL Central opponents with the exception of the White Sox, who ran away with the AL Central title and had their most wins as a franchise since the 2005 season. Despite landing in last in the AL Central rankings, the Twins went 11-8 vs the Cleveland Guardians, 11-8 vs the Detroit Tigers, and 9-10 vs the Kansas City Royals. Of all the other AL teams the Twins faced, the only other AL series the Twins won were vs the tied-for-league-worst Baltimore Orioles, the Houston Astros, and the Texas Rangers. Every other AL series the Twins lost, thus making the fact that the Twins won or were almost .500 vs all their divisional opponents (yes, except the White Sox- but the Twins were 5-5 vs them in 2020 and we'll get 'em next year) significant. Nothing says they couldn't perform similarly well vs their division opponents in 2022.
Even though there is nothing more I would like to do more than try to beat my personal record for number of home games I attend during a Twins season, I take heart knowing that a shortened season could very well shake out in the Twins' favor. Just a little optimism for you on this windy, spring training-less day.
 
Feature photo: Fireworks Friday after a 6-4 loss to the Astros on June 11, 2021
Photo: Byron Buxton warming up in the on deck circle during an extremely hot and muggy game I attended on June 10, 2021. Buxton went yard twice and returned to the outfield in what was the first game of his Saints rehab stint.

With the Buxton turmoil recently and much of the negative eye on the FO, there hasn’t been much talk about Baldelli. However, Baldelli has received just as much heat from this site over the past 7 months as the FO has. I’ve touched on Baldelli before in this thread, but that was incredibly one sided toward Baldelli and I never really talked about some of my criticisms toward Baldelli. Also, that was written in May. It is now November. Time has passed and we have more to look at. Baldelli now has his first losing season.
I’m going to look at some of the things I think make Baldelli the right guy for this team and I’m also going to look at some of the things I think make Baldelli not the right guy for this team.
Why he’s the right man for this team
The Twins had a real clunker of a season in 2018. Paul Molitor was fired as a result, and Baldelli was hired. Many other changes were made to the coaching staff as well. In 2019, the team looked much better and played really well throughout the year, en route to 101 wins. The team simply played much better under Baldelli, which implies good things about the manager. Even if you include the awful 2021 season, the team has averaged 88.6 wins per season (162 games) throughout three years under Baldelli. That’s better than any season they had from 2011-2018.
This might not look like much in terms of the things going for Baldelli, but the case here is that it doesn’t need much explanation.
Why he’s not the right man for this team
My first critique of Baldelli is that his team, particularly in 2021, looked poorly prepared. IMO, it hasn’t been talked enough how much this team struggled with the fundamentals of baseball. Failing to make the most basic of plays. I watched every game through late May (after May not every game, but most games) and I saw this team fail at the fundamentals, comedically at times. This could be attributed towards a coaching staff as a whole, but Baldelli is a pretty big part of that.
I talked about how the team performed better under Baldelli in the Pros section, but there are times where I wonder if Baldelli is getting less out of his team than the sum of its parts. To me, the biggest example of this is the 2020 Wild Card Series against the Astros. The Twins were favored to win, but they didn’t even show up to the ballpark. They lost the series without a single victory. Many on this site lamented about poor relief work, and while I agree that the bullpen was not good, you can’t overlook the fact that this team scored 2 runs in 2 games against a pitching staff composed entirely of Zack Greinke, Ryan Pressly, and a bunch of rookies. The Twins offense was underwhelming in 2020, but they were at least competent, especially at home. This is not a case of an incapable lineup being exposed, this is a case of everyone performing well below their talent level in a situation of high magnitude. It’s been obvious since January of 2020 that Mike Zimmer would consistently get less out of his Vikings than the sum of their parts, and I’m wondering if the same thing is happening with Baldelli. The 2020 Wild Card Series isn’t the only example of this, I also think that parts of the 2021 season are an example. This team had dog**** offensive performance after dog**** offensive performance for much of the beginning of the season, with the occasional 12-run blow-up.
All and all, those are my thoughts about Baldelli. What do I think his future should be on the Twins? As of right now, IDK. I want to say he would be on the hot seat for 2022 but right now, next season is on the FO. They need to untangle themselves with the Buxton situation and fill out a pitching staff. If they can do that, Baldelli should then be on the hot seat at the start of the season. But if they can’t and decide to punt 2022, it wouldn’t be Baldelli’s fault if the team doesn’t do well.
That was a lot. I think I’m going to go eat a cookie now.

With the 2021 season just about wrapped up for the Minnesota Twins, here’s yet another article to talk about starting pitching and why dumpster diving or even mid-tier free agent starters are actually much riskier than the top free agent starters with those big contracts.
Conventional Twins wisdom is that big name, free agent starters are simply too expensive and too risky. Jim Pohlad is very skittish when it comes to long contracts and big dollars. The idea of “crippling” a roster also sends some Twins fans into a panic. It makes sense, after all, the Twins free agent pitchers almost never actually pan out for more than a year.
For this year, the Twins’ front office decided not to pursue an arm to replace Odorizzi, leaving a major hole in the middle of the rotation. Instead, Happ and Shoemaker were signed to contracts all too typical of the Twins’ front office. The cost? $10MM utterly wasted. That said, the Twins are absolutely spending ace starter money in free agency and acquisitions every single year and have been spending $30-43MM annually for those arms for 7 consecutive seasons coming into 2021. I even adjusted the salaries for players which were traded away… Read it and weep.
Median WAR = middle bWAR season performance with 2020 being multiplied by 2.7 due to the shortened season. Total WAR = Total bWAR over the life of the entire contract, even if the player was traded away. $/WAR = Entire Contract Dollars, Adjusted for 2020 / Total bWAR, Not Adjusted for 2020. The salary figures shown are not adjusted for 2020 so they can be viewed in proper context.  
  Med. Tot $                 Player WAR WAR /WAR 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Correia -1.1 -1.1 -5 6               Pelfrey 0.4 0.8 13.8 6 6             Hughes -0.1 5.5 11.9 8 9 9 13 8 7     Nolasco 0.5 2 24 12 12 8 4         Milone 0.8 0.9 8.1   3 5           Santana 0.5 9.8 5.6   14 14 14 14 1     Santiago 0.2 0.3 32.7     2 8         Odorizzi 1.2 4.4 6.1         6 10 18   Pineda 0.8 3.3 8         2 8 10 10 Lynn 0.4 0.4 25         10       Perez 0.1 0.1 40           4     Maeda 2.7 1.8 2.7             3 3 Bailey 0.5 0.2 22             7   Hill 2.1 0.8 2.4             3   Shoemaker -1.9 -1.9 -1.1               2 Happ -1.8 -1.8 -4.4               8                           Season Total 31 43 37 38.7 39.8 29.5 40.8 23
 
In fact, almost none of the Twins signings and acquisitions were worth it, including the starters who were actually “worth the money” because they still weren’t worth starting. For example, Tommy Milone only cost $8.1MM / WAR. That’s an A grade signing. He was worth every bit of the money he was paid, on am average season. But he still wasn’t good enough to actually want him in the rotation. What about Ervin Santana? We all know what a huge asset he was over his first couple seasons and the Twins got one WAR for only $5.6MM which is an A+ kind of deal. The big issue is he was terrible over his last two years, dragging his median performance way down.
Ace = 4.0 WAR+ #2 = 3.0-4.0 WAR #3 = 2.5-3.0 WAR #4 = 2.0-2.5 WAR #5 = 1.5-2.0 WAR I’ve also adjusted the median values for 2020’s short season. That’s the problem with dumpster dives and even mid-tier free agents. All it takes is a slight decline and poof, all the money is utterly wasted because you’re paying guaranteed money to a starter who isn’t worth playing.
Well, everybody knows big free agent contracts never work out though, right? Wrong. Big name, free agent starters are almost always worth it. This is for two reasons. First, they often perform at ace levels even if they decline a bit, but if they take a major hit or injury, they almost always bounce back as a solid starter in the rotation. The money is virtually never totally wasted like it often is on mediocre or low cost starters. Of the 8 front line free agent starters signed since 2014, every single one of them has been worth a rotation spot in an average year. Most are even good deals. Don’t believe me again?
  Med. Tot $                                 Player WAR WAR /WAR Future? 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Grade Lester 2.1 13.2 9.6 - 30 20 20 23 25 28                 B Greinke 4.2 17.9 10.3 - 34 34 34 35 35 35                 C Scherzer 5.5 41.4 4.1 - 17 22 22 22 37 36 35 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 A+ Price 1.8 11.1 13.9 F   30 30 30 31 32 32 32             F Darvish 5.6 7.6 9.9 A       25 20 22 22 19 18           B Corbin 4.1 5.4 8.6 F         15 19 24 23 24 35         A Cole 5.6 7.6 6.4 A           36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 A Wheeler 6.8 7.6 3.45 A           22 23 26 25 24         A+ Strasburg 0 0 Inf F           24 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 27 F- *The summary is updated to reflect the addition of Strasburg to the chart. I decided against adding Bauer. Bauer doesn't have a long term contract, and part of the reason FA ace caliber pitchers are a low risk is a single lost season is easy to overcome. Among the 9 listed starters, only 3 have lost an entire season (Price x1.5, Darvish, Strasburg x2). Of the 38 seasons on the contracts from the 9 starters, 4.5 seasons have been lost. A risk of a starter losing a season is approximately 10% per contract season.
Right now, Corbin and Strasburg both look like a bad deals, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they rebounded. If you look at those contracts, something really stands out to me. Only Strasburg has played poorly enough so the team who signed them wouldn’t have wanted in the rotation and 6 of the 8 are bonefide ace level pitchers on their average season. Even David Price with all his injuries and down performance is worth trotting out there. Also, 7 of 8 of those front line starters have been absolutely C or better signings. Here’s how I’d arbitrarily grade signings based on the dollars spent per WAR.
$16MM+ = F- $14-16MM = F $12-14MM = D $10-12MM = C $9-10MM = B $6-9MM = A 0-6MM = A+ To sum it up, the scary big contracts for front line starters almost always work out over the life of the contract, and even when they don’t work out exactly as intended, the pitchers are almost always worth running out there every 5 days as part of the rotation. However, the low end and middle of the rotation arms are almost never worth it based on nearly a decade of track record by the Twins and over a dozen such starting pitchers. Considering the Twins absolutely do not need any #4-5 starters, the front office also needs to stop wasting money with their annual dumpster dive, refocus and acquire top pitching talent. After all, it’d barely cost more on an annual basis to replace the typical free agent signings they’ve been wasting money on to sign two top of the rotation arms as they’re available.

Hello and welcome to the second installment of Twins Tunes. My name’s Louie.
 
The second edition features Jim Kaat, Senators/Twins pitcher from 1959 to 1973. He also looks like he could be my uncle. And is also a lefty pitcher!
 
If you like what you hear, feel free to share it on social media and whatnot. I don’t have any of those anymore, so if this thing’s gonna go viral, it’s up to you, Twins Daily masses.
 
Special thanks to my cousin Bubba, who mixed, engineered, produced, and mastered the track. You can check out his music at BubbaHolly.com or by searching for “Bubba Holly” on Spotify/BandCamp/wherever you get your music. His new album is terrific. Also, Bubba and I make music under the name Bunkin’ Cousins, if you’d like to hear concept albums about the late medieval period or epic cabin weekends.
 
(Also, if anyone knows how to embed a SoundCloud track, let me know! I'm struggling with it, so a link will have to suffice in the meantime.)
 
Without further adieu, enjoy “Kitty Kaat.”
 
https://soundcloud.com/twinstunes/kitty-kaat

Hello and welcome to the first installment of Twins Tunes. My name’s Louie, the P.T. Barnum of this particular big top.
 
What is Twins Tunes? Basically, I’m going to write and record a song about a different Twin or piece of Twins’ history and post it on here every couple weeks.
 
The inaugural edition features Randy Bush, Twins pinch-hitter extraordinaire from 1982-1993. (Bush is also well-known for being the obvious replacement for Dan Gladden in the lead-off spot in RBI Baseball.)
 
If you like what you hear, feel free to share it on social media and whatnot. I don’t have any of those anymore, so if this thing’s gonna go viral, it’s up to you, Twins Daily masses.
 
Special thanks to my cousin Bubba, who mixed, engineered, produced, and mastered the track. You can check out his music at BubbaHolly.com or by searching for “Bubba Holly” on Spotify/BandCamp/wherever you get your music. His new album is terrific. Also, Bubba and I make music under the name Bunkin’ Cousins, if you’d like to hear concept albums about the late medieval period or epic cabin weekends.
 
I’d love to get suggestions for future songs; I have a few in the hopper but would love for this project to be collaborative.
 
(Also, if anyone knows how to embed a SoundCloud track, let me know! I'm struggling with it, so a link will have to suffice in the meantime.)
 
Without further adieu, enjoy “Randy Bush.”
 
https://soundcloud.com/twinstunes/randy-bush
 
Twins Tunes · Randy Bush

UCL Reconstruction Surgery
Heezy1323
 
 
I recently posted a blog about Chris Sale and the news that he was set to undergo UCL reconstruction. That post covered some questions surrounding the diagnosis and decision-making that occurs when players/teams are faced with this dilemma. That post got a little lengthy, and I chose not to delve into the surgery itself, as I felt that may be better presented as a separate entry. My intention with this post is to discuss some of the different techniques that are used to perform UCL reconstruction. This does get fairly technical, and I apologize in advance if it is more than people would like to know.
 
First, we should revisit the anatomy. The ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) is a small but strong ligament on the medial (or inner) part of the elbow. It is around the size of a small paper clip. Ligaments (by definition) connect one bone to an adjacent bone. The UCL spans from the medial epicondyle of the humerus (the bump you can likely feel on the inside of your elbow) to the sublime tubercle of the ulna (one of the two forearm bones). (As an aside, sublime tubercle is one of my favorite terms in all of anatomy).
 




 
As with nearly any reconstructive surgery in orthopedics, our aim is to recreate the native/normal anatomy as closely as possible. In order to do this, most techniques utilize small tunnels that are drilled into the bone at the ligament attachment sites. The tissue that is used to reconstruct the ligament is then woven through these tunnels and tightened to create a secure new ‘ligament’ that heals and strengthens over time.
 
The primary differences between different techniques are the ‘approach’ (or how tissues are moved aside to see the damaged areas), the specifics of how the tunnels are made and used, the type of tissue (or graft) that is used to make the new ligament, and the way that the graft is secured in place. There are a number of variations that exist, but I’ll cover a few of the most commonly used methods.
 
First, some history may be in order. The first UCL reconstruction was, famously, performed on Tommy John. Tommy John was an outstanding pitcher for the LA Dodgers in the early 1970’s, and had compiled a 13-3 record in 1974 when he had a sudden injury to his elbow and was unable to throw. Imaging was performed, and the diagnosis of a UCL tear was made by pioneering orthopedic surgeon, Dr. Frank Jobe (of the famous Kerlan Jobe clinic in LA). Dr. Jobe had an idea to perform a reconstruction of the UCL, and practiced on several cadavers until he felt he had worked out a promising technique. He told Tommy that he thought he had a 1 in 100 chance of a successful return to MLB pitching. John decided to go ahead. The surgery was ultimately successful, and John returned to pitching in 1976. Though Tommy made it back, he did have a temporary palsy of his ulnar nerve after surgery, which is the ‘funny bone’ nerve that is near the UCL. This caused him significant weakness in his hand at first, but fortunately the strength returned over time and Tommy was able to return to pitching. Interestingly, he won more MLB games after surgery than he did before surgery, and pitched until 1989. There is a story that Jose Canseco hit a homer off John late in his career. Apparently Canseco’s father was Tommy’s dentist, and Tommy said something to the effect of “When your dentist’s kid starts hitting home runs off you, it’s time to retire.”
 
The technique used for this first surgery was termed the Jobe Technique (for obvious reasons). It involved removing the attachment of the muscles to the inner part of the elbow and pulling the muscles toward the wrist to get a good look at the UCL itself. Tunnels were drilled in the bone at the normal attachment sites of the ligament, and a small tendon from the forearm (called the palmaris) was used to weave through the tunnels making a ‘figure-8’ in order to make a new ligament. (The palmaris is a non-necessary tendon that is located in the forearm of about 2/3 of the population. For those patients who don’t have a palmaris, we usually use a hamstring tendon called the gracilis for this procedure.) The old ligament was left in place and sewed into the graft. The nerve was also moved from its normal location (behind the bump) to in front of the bump to take some of the tension off. This is called a ‘transposition’ of the ulnar nerve.
 


 
This technique was used for a while, but it did have some drawbacks, such as a high percentage of patients having ulnar nerve problems after surgery and some weakness resulting from detaching and reattaching the muscles of the forearm. Because of this, other surgeons sought new ways to perform this surgery.
 
One commonly used technique was termed the ASMI-modification of the Jobe Technique. ASMI stand for American Sports Medicine Institute (in Birmingham, AL) and this modification was initially described by Dr. James Andrews and colleagues. This involved similar bone tunnels, but the main difference was in the way that the muscles were treated. Rather than detaching the muscle and reattaching at the end of the surgery, in the ASMI technique the muscle was lifted up (and not detached) and the work was done underneath the muscle. The ulnar nerve is transposed when this technique is used (like the Jobe technique). The passing and fixation of the graft is essentially identical to the Jobe Technique as well.
 


 
Another commonly used technique is called the ‘docking method’. There are a couple of main differences between the docking method and ASMI method. First, the docking method utilizes a ‘muscle-splitting’ approach rather than a ‘muscle-lifting’ approach like the AMSI technique (see figure). This means that the muscle is divided between its fibers and a ‘window’ is created in the muscle in order to see the torn UCL and make the tunnels. There is also a difference in the way the tunnels are made. In the ASMI technique, the tunnels are the same size all the way through, and the graft tissue is passed all the way through the tunnels. In the docking technique, the tunnel on the ulna side is the same. But on the humeral side, the tunnels are sort-of half tunnels with smaller tunnels continuing on through the back side of the bone. This is because the graft is fixed in a different way- there are strong stitches that are attached to the ends of the graft that pull each end into the large tunnels. The stitches then pass through the small portion of the tunnels and are tied behind the bone, which secures the graft in place.
 


 
This technique does not require transposition of the ulnar nerve, which is an advantage because less handling of the nerve generally means less risk of trouble with the nerve after surgery.
 
There are a handful of other techniques that are slight variations on these themes, primarily using different devices such as anchors, interference screws or metal buttons to achieve graft fixation. There have been a number of cadaver biomechanical studies done that have compared methods, and they have been found to be largely equivalent. There seems to be a smaller incidence of ulnar nerve symptoms after surgery when the nerve is not handled/transposed (which makes some sense). The return to play rates are very similar regardless of which technique is used, with perhaps a slight favor to docking technique depending on the study.
 
I trained with Dr. Andrews, and performed nearly 100 UCL reconstruction cases during my fellowship using the ASMI technique. In my own practice, I tend to use the docking technique most commonly. I do this because I would prefer not to transpose the nerve if I don’t have to in order to decrease the likelihood of nerve problems after surgery. We also saw some problems with fracture of the bone near the humeral tunnels when using the ASMI technique, and using the docking technique allows us to make smaller tunnels. This makes fracture in this area less likely. That said, Dr. Andrews has had (and continues to have) tremendous success using this technique. As we have learned more about this type of surgery, it has become clear that it is important that the bone tunnels be made very accurately, as improperly placed tunnels seem to be a risk factor for inability to return to full participation. There has also been some investigation as to whether addition of PRP or other biologics to the reconstruction area at the time of surgery makes a difference in healing speed or strength. At this time, I am not aware that any research has shown a difference.
 
If anyone has managed to make it this far without falling asleep, I hope you found this discussion interesting. Feel free to leave a comment below if you have additional questions. Thanks for reading. Safe wishes to you and your families.

I attended dozens of Twins games every year in the mid-90's as a kid. I sat through lineups composed of Otis Nixon, Butch Huskey, Midre Cummings and Rich Becker. I watched rotations that featured Scott Aldred, Bob Tewksbury and Rich Robertson.
 
Then, the 2000's happened. On one hand, it was very fun to see the Twins consistently contend for the playoffs and win 85-95 games every year. But the team never went out and traded for that one missing piece that would get them over the top and make them legitimate World Series contenders.
 
In the Metrodome years, it was understandable that they would be hesitant to take on contracts like those. The revenue streams were not there to support a $125 million payroll. Fine, so be it.
 
Then Target Field opened and fans were treated to what seemed to be a magical 2010 season. They had everything but a true #1 starter. Rumors flew around at the deadline, with names like Cliff Lee being floated as possibilities for the team to acquire at the deadline. We got Matt Capps, and were promptly swept by the Yankees in the first round.
 
Then, this time as a season ticket holder, I got to watch such studs as Darin Mastroianni, Chris Parmelee and Doug Bernier at the plate, while Mike Pelfrey, Sam Deduno and Scott Diamond "pitched" during the 2011-2018 seasons.
 
Meanwhile, the Twins raked in the money with revenue from the new ballpark and a new TV contract.
 
So forgive me if my patience has worn thin, and I am not content to just "enjoy the ride." I have been a loyal, money-paying, tv-watching, jersey-wearing fan for 35 years. It's time for the ownership to reward me, and the others who have been through the same thing, by unlocking the money bin and making some serious moves to become an actual World Series contender, not just a division crown contender.
 
I think the Twins need upgrades in the rotation and the bullpen. The team has the money and the prospects to get it done, right now. I personally don't give a crap if Trevor Larnach turns out to be a 10 time all star after he is traded if he brings back a player that can help the team win right now. Think of Shields/Davis coming to the Royals for Wil Meyers. Do any Royals fans really care if Meyers becomes a Hall of Famer after they traded him? I doubt it.
 
Don't think Madison Bumgarner is an upgrade over Kyle Gibson? Great. I can respectfully disagree with your opinion. However, calling fans who would like a trade "barbarians" (as Reusse did today) or talking down to people who aren't content to stand pat and see what happens, is just so frustrating.
 
It's great if you are fine to let the Pohlads rake in the dough and try to back their way into titles, that's your prerogative. I just think the narrative of fans who would like to see moves made being idiots, or bad fans, is growing tiresome.
 
Despite what Patrick Reusse, Jim Souhan or even commenters here might say, I personally think it's okay for fans to want more. We have waited long enough, and some of us aren't content with division championships.

Brusdar Graterol Shoulder Impingement Q&A
Heezy1323
 
 
Heralded Twins prospect Brusdar Graterol was recently shut down and placed on the IL for ‘shoulder impingement’. This is concerning given how promising a start to the 2019 season Graterol has had and what it could mean for his future.
 
So what is ‘shoulder impingement’? And when might it need surgery? Let’s see what we can figure out:
 
[Disclaimer: I am not a team physician for the Twins. I have not treated or examined any Twins players. The information I am using is only that which is publicly available. My goal with these posts is to provide some education to TD readers around general injuries that are peculiar to baseball players.]
 
 
Question 1: What is shoulder impingement?
Shoulder impingement is a sort of catch-all term that can be used to mean a number of different things depending on the specifics of the situation. It Is a term that is often used in application to patients who have pain in their shoulders, often without any specific structural damage or a particular injury. Most frequently, people have pain in their shoulder area that gets worse when working above chest level. It is often treated with physical therapy, activity modification, oral medication and occasional cortisone injections. It is uncommon for these patients to require surgery, but it is sometimes needed after the preceding treatments have failed to provide adequate relief. Some also refer to this condition as shoulder bursitis. It involves irritation of the rotator cuff and the bursa, which lies between the rotator cuff tendons and a part of the bone of the shoulder blade (called the acromion). You may have friends or family members who have been told they have ‘impingement’- this is a fairly commonly used diagnosis. More specifically, this condition is referred to as ‘external impingement’.
 


 
Shoulder impingement in pitchers, however, often means something entirely different than what is described above. Whereas external impingement occurs between the rotator cuff and the acromion (outside of the ball and socket joint of the shoulder), pitchers more commonly have problems with what is called ‘internal impingement’. This occurs specifically in overhead athletes because of the tremendous motion that is necessary to hurl a baseball 90+ mph accurately. During the course of throwing, the arm is cocked back, placing it in an awkward position. In this position, part of the rotator cuff can get pinched between the bone of the ball and the bone of the socket (also often including pinching of the labrum). This may not seem like a big deal, but over time this repetitive motion can begin to take its toll. Experts agree that some changes/damage to the structures of the shoulder are likely normal and adaptive in pitchers rather than problematic. In some cases, however, these structural changes progress down the spectrum and become an issue- causing pain, lack of velocity and/or control and fatigue of the shoulder.
 


 
There is not perfect agreement amongst experts about why exactly these athletes begin to have pain in some cases. Regardless, it is likely a very complex combination of factors ranging from subtle changes in mechanics to core strength to gradual loosening of shoulder ligaments over time (and many others). Each individual case is likely different, and treatment needs to be tailored to the specifics of the athlete.
 
 
Question 2: How/when did this injury occur?
Typically, this is not an injury that results from a single trauma (though theoretically it can happen that way). It is much more typical for this to be the result of an accumulation of ‘microtraumas’ over a long period of time.
 
Question 3: Does this injury always need surgery?
No. As mentioned above, painful shoulder impingement in throwers is likely related to a complex set of factors. Because of this, treating any ONE thing with a surgery is somewhat unlikely to be effective. As a result, treatment is almost always begun by trying to calm down inflamed tissues. This typically involves rest from throwing. It may also involve oral medications and in some instances, cortisone injections. There is some discussion around PRP and so-called ‘stem cell’ injections (what orthopedists refer to as Bone Marrow Aspirate Concentrate or BMAC) for these types of problems, though this is not yet something I would consider standard of care.
During this time, the athlete is also likely to undergo physical therapy to work on improving some of the other factors mentioned above- core strength, range of motion, rotator cuff strength, etc.
As the pain and inflammation improve, the athlete is likely re-examined by trainers and physicians. This can take anywhere from a week or two to several weeks depending on the case. When things have improved sufficiently, the athlete is likely to begin an interval throwing program, which involves progressively more aggressive throwing sessions. Once they have completed this, they would likely return to the mound and begin throwing from there. Once appropriate progress has been made (and of course presuming no setbacks are encountered), they are likely cleared to return to play.
The success of non-surgical treatment for these types of problems is all over the map in the literature. There are ranges from percents in the teens to 70%+. Again, it likely depends on a large number of factors which makes prognosticating nearly impossible.
 
 
Question 4: How do we tell which cases of impingement need surgery and which do not?
This can be among the most difficult decisions to make when dealing with pitchers. One of the problematic elements is that surgery to treat this problem is comparatively not very successful. As noted above, in general there are likely a number of different structural abnormalities in the shoulder that are in play with this injury. Some of them are adaptive and are considered ‘normally abnormal’ for pitchers. Others are problematic. Separating these two is something about which even experts readily disagree.
It is difficult (and perhaps foolish in this setting) to quote surgery success rates, but in general they are not the best. There is a reason behind the old saying that for pitchers “If it’s the elbow, call the surgeon. If it’s the shoulder, call the preacher.”
 
 
Question 5: What is done during surgery?
This is widely variable depending on the specific structures that are injured, and (quite honestly) the particular views of the operating surgeon. I was recently watching a lecture on just this subject that featured a panel of a number of the preeminent North American surgeons that treat these problems. The differences of opinion and differences in strategy between surgeons were substantial. Yet another reason to make significant efforts to make non-surgical treatment successful.
 
 
Question 6: How concerning is this for Graterol?
This is hard to know from the information available. As stated earlier, the term ‘impingement’ can mean a wide variety of things- some more concerning than others. One of the positives in this case would seem to be that Graterol was pitching very effectively quite recently. Thus, this doesn’t seem to be something that has been festering for months. Hopefully that means they’ve ‘caught it early’ and can get things back on track sooner than later. I would imagine he will be out for a few weeks at least, but I would be surprised if he required any surgery in the near future.
Overall, many pitchers have occasional blips on the radar with things like this that are improved with rest and rehab and don’t recur in the future. Predicting the future is difficult for anything- and this type of issue especially- but hopefully Graterol can get back on the mound throwing gas soon.
 
 
Go Twins!

Gaging value in relief pitichers is always a difficult task given that they are prone to issues with small sample size. Many relievers who were good one season will regress the next, and as we've seen with Blake Parker, guys who were nothing special can turn into a very good option.
 
Regardless, it was, without question, a point of contention this offseason among TD readers about the front office getting more help for the pen. I personally beat this horse dead on numerous occasions. I was happy with the Parker signing, but made it clear that I didn't want this to be the main acquisition. The pen so far has not been as bad as some of us (myself included) thought. It has essentially been slightly better than league average if WAR is be believed, though its peripherals definitely say that there's room for improvement.
 
As such, I'm going to wade into the dollars vs. development debate and take a look at the FA relievers from the 2018 season to see if it was worth spending the money. I'll split these out by contract value. That's a bit arbitrary, but it does speak to the general demand for these players. My main source is this ESPN list. I'm not going to pretend that I've found all of them, so apologies if I missed a few. I'm not going to touch minor league signings.
 
The cream of the Crop:
Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a bust, posting an ERA north of 5 out of the pen in 20 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP.
Andrew Miller - Another big name in the RP market, Miller has been, so far at least, a bust as well, posting a 4.80 ERA for the Cards after signing a 2/25 deal with an additional option. His K rate has improved this season but his WHIP has gotten worse with increases in hits, walks, and HRs per 9 innings.
Adam Ottavino - Our first success story on the big name candidates comes from Ottavino, who thus far has been a dominant option in the back of the Yankees' pen. His control has been a bit worse than normal (walking 6.5 batters per 9), but his hit rate is an absurd 4.5 per 9 and his strike out rate has increased as well. So far at least the 3/27 contract he signed has been good for NY.
Craig Kimbrel - He's still unsigned. So the book is still out.
Jeurys Familia - Familia chose to remain with the Mets this offseason, and thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed as his ERA is also north of 5 and his WHIP has skyrocketed due in large part to doubling his walk rate. His HR rate has doubled too thus far.
Zach Britton - Britton made bank signing a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has so far not disappointed. His K rate has increased substantially while the rest of his peripherals have remained pretty close to the same. His ERA is slightly lower as well.
Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has been probably the worst of this bunch. His ERA sits over 8. His K rate has dropped and he's seen large increases in both his hit and HR rates in his 16 appearances. His walk has dropped though.
David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow sorness.

In all, there have only been two hits of the 7 who signed in this group. I cannot emphasize enough that SSS is a huge factor here, but only 2 of these guys would have helped our pen... and unfortunately both are pitching for NY.
 
Second Tier
Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the mets, signing a 2/10 deal. Risk aside, he hasn't performed well thus far posting a 4.8 ERA in only 10 games. His peripherals are all over the place and seems to be buoyed largely by a couple extra home runs. His K rate and BB rates are both down this year.
Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and while the ERA is not pretty, his peripherals are in line with his career averages. Both his K rate and BB rates are up a bit and he has yet to give up a HR in his 21 innings. I'm not sure I'd call this a bust at this point as I think he's probably a victim of bad luck, but his 5.14 ERA is a bit ugly.
Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without.
Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and thus far every one of his peripherals have trended in the wrong direction. His ERA is north of 5.
Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and is currently in the minors rehabbing due to a viral infection. His 3 inning ML sample is a bit too small to gage at this point, though the results weren't good.

There are only 5 names in this tier, and so far every team wouldn't mind a do over. I could see a couple of these names evening out over the course of this season, but none of these guys would have helped us much at this point.
 
Cheap Fliers
Brad Brach - Brach has gotten results for the Cubs, but his peripherals say he's on borrowed time. His walk rate has doubled and his K rate is about at career norms. Still for 3 million dollar deal, Brach hasn't been bad.
Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been horrible in 15 innings so far.
Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. His ERA is a bit higher than we'd like for an RP at 3.63 but thus far he's performed. His K rate is way up as is his walk rate. Gearrin would be an upgrade over a couple players in our pen. Not bad for the money.
Greg Holland - I have to tip my cap to those on the Holland bandwagon along with Arizona for picking him for only 3.25M. He's been worth it posting a 1.80 ERA. Despite an elevated walk rate, his WHIP is down. His K rate is up. He's given up less hits and kept the ball in the park in his 15 innings. He would be one of our best relievers.
Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 14 innings, but has given up 9 hits and 2 runs in that span allowing for a 1.29 ERA.
Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness. The book is still out here.
Blake Parker - We know him. So far a win for the front office.
Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 10 innings to the tune of a 4.5 ERA thus far. Not a bad find in the value category. His peripherals all look pretty good and he's one of the few pitchers whose BB rate has dropped so far this season. I'm going with a bit of bad luck on the ERA, but he wouldn't present much of an upgrade to our pen.
David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He's yet to pitch.
Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's appeared in 17 games and only pitched 9 innings with an ERA of 6.
Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly. He's out a couple months due to a grade 2 strain of a lat muscle.
Adam Warren - Warren has been OK for the Padres with a 3.72 ERA. That's not special, nor are his peripherals, but he hasn't been horrible either. Not bad for 2.5M.

Of the 12 names on this list, there are only 3 clear misses at this point. Phelps was not expected to necessarily be pitching yet, so I'd say the jury is still out here. That may turn into a good deal for the Jays. Given their season though, he's likely going to be traded if he's pitching this summer. Holland, Kelley, and Parker have all been quite good for their teams. The other 6 fall under too soon to tell or value signings in that they haven't been bad, though they wouldn't necessarily be huge upgrades either.
 
One other trend that I noticed is that most relievers seemed to have noticeable increases in their BB rates. I'm not sure if that's more on an emphasis on Ks (which also were generally up), but relief pitching outcomes seemed much more skewed to higher BB and K rates over these pitcher's career norms. That appears, thus far, to the be the case across MLB as well, as RPs in general are averaging 3.93 BB per 9 along with 9.42 K per 9. Both are thus far significantly higher than last year.
 
Obviously, with these small samples, it's a bit too soon to tell on all of them, but for those of us (myself included) who wanted the Twins to do more, the results say that they would have likely missed.. The top tier has had some good performances, but has ultimately disappointed. The bottom tier has had about the same percentage of hits as the top tier along with some value guys who have performed as well as the top tier signings for much less. As much as I hate to say it, it looks like our front office hasn't done a bad job in this area.

Even a really great meal goes stale eventually.
 
I desperately wanted the Twins to do more to upgrade the bullpen this offseason, and was supportive of the idea of them pursuing Craig Kimbrel at one point, but I'm out now. I don't really want anything to do with him.
 
My frustration with the bullpen inactivity was never tied to any one particular reliever. Things have boiled own to that, since Kimbrel is the last man standing, but there were several attractive free agent bullpen pieces out there this winter. The Twins didn't sign any of them. I'm over it.
 
I'm not saying this bullpen is fine as it's currently constructed. While Ryne Harper has been a pleasant surprise and the backed trio of Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers and Trevor May has mostly looked good, there are some legit concerns about the depth.
 
But bringing in a project isn't the answer. Kimbrel is one of the greatest closers of all time. There's also a reason why he's still unemployed. Here are a few:
 
-He has to be rusty. This is item No. 1 with a bullet. There's no way he can possibly be sharp, I don't care what kind of simulated games he may be throwing.
 
-He had a 4.57 ERA in the second half and a 5.91 ERA in the postseason last year.
 
-His fastball velocity dropped from 98.72 mph in 2017 to 97.63 mph last year.
 
-It actually took him awhile to work up to that velocity last season, sitting below 97 mph through April. Yes, he's been working out, but I'd still be concerned it would take him some time to get up to full speed.
 
-His ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year.
 
-His line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year.
 
-He had a worse first-pitch strike rate (56.3%) than Fernando Rodney last year.
 
-He had the eighth-lowest rate of pitches in the zone (36.6%) of the 151 qualified relievers last year.
 
-He walked 12.6% of the batters he faced last year. That is horrible. It was the 20th-worst rate among 336 pitchers who logged more than 50 innings last year.
 
In nearly every single positive mention of the Twins I see, there is somebody in the comments who calls for Kimbrel. I get it, I just think the idea of Kimbrel doesn't even accurately reflect who he actually is at this point.
 
If the Twins seek to improve the bullpen, they should be looking for guys who are trending upward. Or at least, you know, active. Maybe Kimbrel will be great, I don't know, but I am comfortable with another team taking on that project. There are other ways to boost the bullpen.

A profound philosopher once proclaimed that “it just takes some time” and that while you might be “in the middle of the ride”, “everything, everything will be just fine.” “Jimmy Eat World lyrics? That isn’t philosophical.” Well, when I’ve been drinking a little on Friday nights, it starts to sound like Socrates to me so lay off of it. The name of that song is “The Middle”, a little diddy you may have heard of, and it was the inspiration for this article about where the Twins happen to find themselves in MLB’s landscape.
 
The Twins are of course quite a bit better than the trifecta of teams underneath them who have no interest in winning games but are still a fair bit worse than the Indians even if you squint really hard. The Indians also apparently are not very interested in winning more games considering the moves they have made this off-season and the fact that Jordan Luplow is currently one of their starting outfielders. Did I make that name up? Honestly, I checked Fangraphs and I’m still not convinced he’s a real player. But until there is a trade of either Trevor Bauer or Corey Kluber, the Indians will remain favorites for winning the AL Central again which leaves the Twins in the middle.
 
The Wild Card remains an opportunity but considering the Balrog that is the AL East along with a few strong contenders in the West like the Angels and the Athletics, that path may actually be harder than winning the division for Minnesota in 2019. Regression is prime for both the Athletics and the Rays, the former potentially following in the footsteps of Minnesota as the “performed better than everyone thought only to get moped up by the Yankees in a Wild Card game and then fall off the next year” team. But many things will have to go right for Minnesota to see the playoffs again. Is this a bad place to be in? I don’t think so.
 
Every year it seems that the MLB season is as much of a battle of quality players as it is a war of attrition, it comes as no surprise that the teams which make the playoffs are usually teams that avoided major injuries and were able to get consistent production from their major players. While betting on specific injuries and regression is not a good idea, betting on general injuries and regression among the contending teams is not necessarily a bad play. Just look at the 2018 Twins, who would have thought that Brian Dozier would forget how to hit a fastball, Jorge Polanco would get caught with too much O.J., Ervin Santana would lose a finger in the war, Jason Castro would bump knees with Teddy Bridgewater, Byron Buxton would be kidnapped at sporadic parts of the season, Miguel Sano having a metal rod shoved into his leg would be the 4th worst thing to happen to him that year, Logan Morrison would turn into a baked potato, and Lance Lynn would try to eat that potato.
 
The point is, there sits a bevy of teams who are perfect candidates for smiting by the baseball gods and if the Twins just outlast those teams in 2019, they could make the playoffs in a similar fashion to the 2017 team that was able to coast to a surprise Wild Card spot. The 2018 Oakland team saw this happen also when the Mariners fell off as they always do and when the Angels partnered with the local sports hospitals of the greater Anaheim area like they also always do. Once they were out of the way, the only other competition was a Rays team which was the sports equivalent of a Monty Python sketch.
 
After the addition of a boomstick, the 2019 Twins project by Fangraphs to be the 13th best team in baseball by fWAR at 36, .9 ahead of the 15th team (the A’s ironically) who are at 35.1, 2018 Josh Bell is the difference between them. The current free agents left are fairly uninspiring and will probably not make up enough of a difference to launch them into the upper echelon of teams. The farm system, while very very tasty, is probably a year away from having the major prospects grace the major league team. So the plan should be to put together a solid squad in 2018 which includes a reliever addition or two and then hope that things happen to fall in place to allow the 2019 team reach the playoffs while the prospects continue to develop and then hopefully cultivate in a 2020 team ready to take down the champ.

In one of their first moves this offseason, the Minnesota Twins plucked C.J. Cron off waivers after he was jettisoned by the Tampa Bay Rays. Following a 30-home run breakout campaign and having established relationships with the likes of Rocco Baldelli and Josh Kalk, the slugging first basemen seems like a decent gamble. What’s worth wondering though is whether Cron slots in as Joe Mauer’s replacement, or just another body on the 25 man. No matter what his role, the Twins do have Tyler Austin to worry about, and what’s next could be described as some uncertainty.
 
The Twins acquired Austin and pitching prospect Luis Rijo in exchange for Lance Lynn at the 2018 trade deadline. After seeing little playing time with the Yankees over the past three seasons, Austin got in consistent run with Minnesota down the stretch. From August through the end of the season, he played in 35 games for Paul Molitor’s club. His .782 OPS was a career best, and the nine longballs were also reflective of his power stroke. Now recently turned 27 years-old Austin looked to be in line for an expanded role with the Twins, but that may not be guaranteed.
 
Projecting the possible roster openings, we can guarantee that nine players fill out the lineup with another five in the starting rotation. A 13 man pitching staff has been customary for the organization of late, so an eight-man bullpen also seems probable. In that scenario there’s just three bench spots up for grabs, likely taken up by backup catcher Mitch Garver, utility man Ehire Adrianza, and fourth outfielder Jake Cave. At this point we’ve yet to consider Austin’s place meaning he’d need to start at either first base or designated hitter.
 
Although the Twins aren’t locked into Cron to start the season, a $4.8 million deal tendered to the former Ray suggests he’s in their plans. Whether that means he starts at first base or takes the bulk of the designated hitter reps remains to be seen. It would be my hope, and a logical expectation, that Minnesota is not yet done adding bats. Obviously, Jorge Polanco needs an up the middle partner, but a higher ceiling fit for first or DH still has plenty of promise. The duo of Cron and Austin would be passable, but the front office would also be plenty open for criticism if such a low reward avenue was embarked upon.
 
Next week the Winter Meetings commence in Las Vegas and we’re almost certainly (err, hopefully) going to see the free agent market pick up. Minnesota may let some of the chips fall first, but they’ll need to fill the necessary holes (middle infield, bullpen) at some point. Another bat entering the picture would only further signify what could be a suboptimal development for the one-time Yankees prospect.
 
For a guy like Austin these situations are never ideal. We saw him produce at a higher level down the stretch when given consistent playing time. He’s out of options however and could be up against a numbers crunch in a position Minnesota stands to benefit from improvement. A Cron and Austin tandem in the lineup would signify somewhat of a disappointing effort to acquire talent, but an improvement could make the stay in Twins Territory a quick one for Tyler.
 
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