twinstalker

The year before Zebby exploded he had 1.3 BB/9 at A and A+ without injury. The walk rate and increased velocity combined with health is what got him to the majors. I see nothing similar from these three guys, especially because they're all injured in their own way. They'll be lucky to make it through the year, much less make it to the majors.

Why would the Twins extend an injured player? I haven't understood why or how people think a problem like his is simply going to disappear. My feeling is it either reappears or creates other issues. Also, it's pretty clear this front office believe pitching is fungible. They extended Pablo, but they sort of had to, plus they made a big trade for him relatively close to his free agency. I think the general plan is to replace expensive pitching with that in the pipeline. If Ryan has three more years left, and the Twins are developing pitching like they seem to be, I don't see this being a thing.

Yuck. I wouldn't give up the next eight years of Keaschall for a perpetually injured Luzardo. Keaschall is a necessary piece to lineup if the Twins have any chance for good hitting in the near future. The Twins send up a lineup of guys who struck out at too high a rate in the minors and expect them suddenly to have good ABs against MLB pitchers. The Twins rarely select good hitters in the draft (I think the most recent draft was a waste of its first three picks, but the draft was bad overall). If one of them comes through (and it would be K. Culpepper), I'll be surprised. But they killed it in 2023 with Jenkins and Keaschall and may have signed a real good follow-up in Eeles. These are the guys who can be extremely tough outs, and you are best to leave them out of trade deals for guys injured and nearing FA.

Articles and comments on this site simply ignore this, even though it's almost the only thing that matters. Beyond that and for players who actually could be locked up, foremost why would you give someone a six-year deal? Emmanuel Rodriguez stands a good chance at flaming out with his minors strikeout rate. Tell me why you give him a deal when you have control over him anyway? Afraid of paying too much for that last arbitration year? That's silly. The Twins, if they are ever lucky enough to have a Jackson Chourio who isn't a Boras client might have reason to sign him for as long as possible, but six years hardly makes sense. Another note: even if Jenkins weren't represented by Boras, he's still not in the class of players who have been signed to the extra long, big contracts (Chourio, Franco). Those guys were just about guaranteed superstars, though one of them will never get his money. But Jenkins will never sign a "good for team" contract that delays free agency, and E. Rodriguez is very possibly a flameout candidate. This topic makes no sense, imo. It might make sense to identify non-Boras guys and sign them to post-FA contracts, but I have zero confidence in the front office to identify good hitters or make strong offers at the right time even if they do. My take is that while I wouldn't sign EmRod to an 8 yr contract because we have no idea whether he'll be good or not, I would sign Luke Keaschall to an 8 yr contract on the eve of his major league debut. The cost won't be much, and he'll be worth it. That's because Keaschall is a better prospect. He doesn't strike out in the minors at nearly the rate Rodriguez does. MLB pitchers might get torched by EmRod initially, but they'll figure out how to get him out, just like they did Julien. If EmRod has two full years of great production, sign him up for two past FA, but I think we'll hear the phrase "sophomore slump" as if it has nothing to do with the issues Rodriguez has now.

Wow. First, as I've said before, it makes so little sense to get in bed with Boras, but it's too late for that. Lewis' value now lies in trade, and it's not a lot of value unless he improves a lot. He's shown enough that Boras won't let him sign for anything close to reasonable. If he starts out like he's done before, trade, trade, trade. Is the front office smart enough to make a good deal? I"m not sure.

SMH and disagree. Amick is not likely a good prospect, and even the 10th best 3B prospect doesn't usually make it to the majors because 3Bmen in the majors are guys that were former SS prospects. The few who came up at 3B were outstanding hitters, meaning they destroyed college and the minors and didn't strike out there. Amick strikes out too much to be a legit prospect...probably. His homers were hit in a tiny college ballpark. Look at how the Tennessee hitters who had a meh k rate have done in the minors. Can't think of any? My point exactly. I can give you a few first rounders: Drew Gilbert, Sterlin Thompson, Jordan Beck, and don't forget our own 2nd rd pick Alerick Soularie. Amick played professionally against guys his same age who were a long way from the majors, and he didn't impress. Most quality college prospects find their way to A+ after a short stint in low A. The real hitting prospects are the ones who handle low A well at age 19 or less, not struggle at age 21. This was a really bad draft, and the Twins would have been well-served to draft more of their pitching projects.

Except in some rare years, it's impossible for anything bad to happen. Losing Olivar or especially Rosario (who isn't really a threat to make or do anything in the majors) is no big deal. Olivar has a small chance. Even Eiberson can be a negative if the Twins incorrectly keep him the whole year and potentially lose out on a vet reliever they think they don't have room for.

So Olivar and Rosario are on the Triple-A roster? Is that available to look at some place? I assume it's full of guys eligible for the MLB phase. How many names are allowed on this one?

My only research on him was another's. Fangraphs didn't include him in Phillies top 43 for 2024. In fact, after they laid out their top 26 prospects, among Other Prospects of Note they had a sublist of what they called "Young Dev Project Pitchers" and didn't include him among the six names. Of course, maybe he wasn't young enough. But his name wasn't mentioned anywhere. Prior to 2023 Fangraphs did include him in that bottom sublist area called "Many More Relief Prospect" and just had this note: "Castellano sits at 92-93 but has been up to 96 on backfields. He throws strikes and his curveball has a chance to be a plus. His delivery is reliever-y but otherwise he's a pretty stable prospect." Then he had a bad 2023 and they didn't mention him prior to this past season. In 2024 his xFIP as mostly a starter was about 3.05, while his ERA was 3.99. I'm not sure why he wasn't considered more of a prospect, but it may have to do with velocity (wild guess) or, more likely, he'd be considered more of one after 2024. Fangraphs does like to look at results. I have no real opinion on this other than it probably tells us the Twins don't expect to be bring in much relief-wise. They'll have a long guy out of the pen in Eiberson Castellano, as long as they want him in the org this season.

Cory, you don't get that kind of return for such a salaried player. They probably get someone like Teel back with a few guys whose likelihood of being anything special are tiny. A couple far-off arms. Twins would do well to trade Correa for Mayer straight up, but probably no one is giving up their top 5 overall guy for Correa, especially if the guy is a shortstop. Correa's not likely the answer at short for very long, and Devers is moving to first. I do think Mayer is not really a top 5 guy, so if the Sox recognize this, I suppose it's possible. Another possibility would be some of their pitching and a guy like Kristian Campbell, very similar to and a little better at this point than Luke Keaschall.

Wow, you do realize WAR is relative to league hitting/pitching? 2004 was still the steroid era, juiced ball era, etc. Overall numbers were huge. That's why Santana was so great and why Betts is the same with "worse" numbers.

Whose WAR? Were all WARs like this (usually they aren't)?

Koosman's 1979 combined with Smalley's start, Willie (neither leather) Norwood's first month, and good early play from Hosken and Bombo led to a little optimism as the Twins started well. Unfortunately, KC had a great team, and Carew's Angels were too good for the Twins to stay competitive in the AL West. I was a kid back then and in 2003 a full-fledged adult who definitely remembered the trade of Orosco for Koosman. It's the type of recognition that keeps you young, because the trade seemed like yesterday. In 1989 I was in NY and do not recall ever seeing or listening to the Twins that year, so in that sense I missed the whole Wally Backman experience. I did read the box scores in USA Today, a new-ish paper that would actually have the Twins box scores, unlike the local paper I got. NY was a million miles away from MN that year, compared to now where every part of the world is connected to every other.

I normally smh at these sort of articles, but Suzuki would be a quality get who's actually gettable. The problem is what they'd accept back. If the Cubs accept Vazquez, a prospect will have to be attached. I'd give them Raya in a second. Maybe that's the reason we're calling him a top five prospect. Strategy. Then, yes, someone like Duran. So essentially Duran and Raya and Vazquez for Suzuki and cash. This, though, would require the Twins to spend on a relief a little, because, as dxpavelka says, our relief will have been xxxxxx but good.

So the top three are Jenkins, Keaschall, EmRod, Zebby, and Eeles?

It's going to be difficult fitting Eeles, Jenkins, Zebby, EmRod, and Keaschall into the top 4. I'd have Spencer Bengard higher than Raya.

Yeah, who needs track record? This #20 plus or minus. Unreal.

Should be higher. Only Jenkins, Keaschall, Zebby, and EmRod should be ahead of him. I'm going to trust you put Payton Eeles at 5 now and left Raya off.

What in the world?

LOL. He belongs around 20, admittedly ahead of DeBarge and Amick.

Much too low, plus, since I know you can't resist putting Marco Raya in the top 10 for some weird reason, does this mean you left Zebby out? That makes no sense. He's still a prospect.

Seriously? Winder got hurt and Severino was never a prospect past his age 17 year.

Rosario has no business in the top 20, and I doubt DeBarge does, either. I'd rather have MacLeod in there. If Amick is in the top 10, then we know this is messed up. I'm praying this is not the case...such that the top 20 stats we get each day are for someone who can't hit high A. Jenkins, Zebby, Keaschall, EmRod, Morris, Lewis, Eeles, Soto, Pena, Gonzalez there's 10, so Raya and Amick hopefully didn't make the list. But again, get rid of Schobel and feel free to put Raya in his place (after moving DeAndrade to 11 and moving others down).

Schobel isn't a top 20 guy. De Andrade should be a lot higher, Flop him with Raya, wherever you have Raya.

Yunior Severino isn't a prospect. He's a career minor leaguer some org, maybe ours, will be kind to at the end of the year and call him up like they did Hellman and will drop him off the 40 immediately. That's best case for YS.