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Mike Frasier Law

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Everything posted by Mike Frasier Law

  1. Mike Frasier Law
    I suspect it’s something like 4/86 with a $6m buyout or a $14m option. Guaranteed to get $92m
  2. Mike Frasier Law
    Is there a conversion of OAA to WAR or some other value we're used to seeing? When I see a -5, I'm trained to think that's worth about half a win, but I don't know if that's right. Anyone?
  3. Mike Frasier Law
    Pineda, and I think he can. Last year was his first after TJ, and the more he pitched, the better he looked. Here is his ERA and xFIP by month: April May June July Aug Sept/Oct ERA 6.21 4.50 3.58 2.59 3.52 2.25 xFIP 5.1 4.80 4.07 3.98 3.81 3.28 He increased his k/9 rate from 8.16 to 9.45 between halves. He dropped his HR/9 from 1.55 to 1.18. His second half k-BB% of 20.2% would have tied him with Robbie Ray for 15th in baseball. Berrios was 17.1% in 2019. I think Pineda has the skills and mental fortitude to be an ace. If he steps up next year, we're going to be scary good.
  4. Mike Frasier Law
    Agreed that Graterol won't pitch in the rotation all year, but I'd like to see the reverse - have him start in the rotation and move him to the bullpen when his innings exceed 120 or so.
  5. Mike Frasier Law
    I think Ryu is excellent when on the field. Considering owners likely have insurance policies covering significant injuries, it makes sense to me to go crazy here. I know this is a change of my own tune from a few days ago, but I think we need to adjust to the market. I'd do what it takes to sign him. 4/80? 4/90? If he's pitching, he's worth it. If he's not pitching, the Twins will need to find another starter at that point.
  6. Mike Frasier Law
    Cole: 7/260 Ryu: 3/60 (I'd prefer a 2/40 with team option) Bumgarner 4/85 and yes, i think each one is going to get more than that.
  7. Mike Frasier Law
    I feel like the combo signing of MadBum and Ryu would be ideal. Have one not-so-exciting workhorse and have another potential ace who won't be dependable to be on the field. If Ryu is ready to start the season but gets hurt early, he'll effectively be replaced by Big Mike in May. In the meantime, we'd have Odo, MadBum, Berrios every 5 starts, mixing in one of our exciting rookies when we can.
  8. Mike Frasier Law
    I feel like people forget that Big Mike was a badass prior to TJ and last year was his first year back. He'll be 31 and fully healed this year. In the three years with the Yankees prior to his TJ surgery, his line was better than Wheeler's career line: Mike: 9.5 k/9, 2.0 bb/9, 1.4 hr/9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.24 xFIP. Wheeler: 8.72 3.24 .9 3.71 3.91 The last time Bumgarner had a lower FIP or xFIP was in 2016. Ryu has had better numbers, but is going to be 33. Last year he pitched 182 innings, but he's only pitched more than 82 innings in 4 of the last 7 years, and 2 of those 4 were in 2013 and 2014. I think any of our current three starters has the ability to be an ace on any given day, and should be expected to pitch no worse than a #3 starter every time.
  9. Mike Frasier Law
    I concur as well.
  10. Mike Frasier Law
    Fangraphs ranked him the #42 free agent and estimated a 2-4 year contract worth between $8-10m per year. They describe him as a lumbering power hitter with bad hands. Says "there's no margin for error here because of the defensive limitations" I say pass. I'd rather see one of our prospects manning 1B
  11. Mike Frasier Law
    At 2d base. Should have clarified....
  12. Mike Frasier Law
    For what it's worth, projections see him as being for real (for the most part). Fangraphs has already posted 2020 Steamer projections, which " uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers." It also posts Depth Chart projections, which "are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff." With that in mind, I'd expect someone with such a small track record to have a very significant regression built into the projections. They both project that he regresses. But not that much. They project he walks less, but only from 9.8% to 8%. They project he strikes out more, but only from 7.9% to 8.5%. They project his BABIP drops from 355 to 332. All told, they project him to be a 312/369/415/784 hitter, which amounts to a 2.6 WAR. That would put him top 5 or so in the AL, and top 10 or so in baseball.
  13. Mike Frasier Law
    This story read like a eulogy to me - and it makes me sad. I am a fan of Gibson and I think he’s likely to have a very good year next year. I doubt it will be with the twins. He reminds me most of Scott Baker. A pitcher whose results were regularly good to very good but almost never outstanding. I was consistently frustrated with casual fans complaining about “merely” being good and not great.
  14. Mike Frasier Law
    Fangraphs did an article on the best bullpens in baseball, looking at it through multiple lenses. I was surprised to see how well the Twins ranked in every way.
  15. Mike Frasier Law
    True, but not the whole picture: MLB Average 9.23 k/9 3.76 bb/9 4.48 ERA 4.50 FIP 4.55 xFIP AL average 9.12 k/9 3.74 bb/9 4.43 ERA 4.52 FIP 4.60 xFIP Dyson: 8.29 k/9 1.24 bb/9 2.47 ERA 2.74 FIP 3.40 xFIP Romo: 7.91 k/9 3.03 bb/9 3.49 ERA 3.90 FIP 5.20 xFIP
  16. Mike Frasier Law
    What a weird deadline. Yankees and Red Sox did virtually nothing to improve their pitching. Houston traded for EVERYONE. Mets and Reds (non contenders) trade for two of the best starters on the market. Wheeler, Bumgarner, Vazquez, Minor don't get traded. Just weird
  17. Mike Frasier Law
    Ok, how many tabs do y'all have open? I have MLBTR, Reddit/r/baseball, and Fangraphs trade deadline chat. I feel like i should have a dozen more to switch back and forth between frantically
  18. Mike Frasier Law
    Still a lot of intriguing arms out that need to be traded. half hour to go and I haven't lost hope yet...
  19. Mike Frasier Law
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sure-the-twins-hitting-is-great-but-their-pitching-is-the-real-surprise/
  20. Mike Frasier Law
    That's a tough question. I don't know what I'd do in their situation. Cleveland's problem this year is the opposite of the Twins' problems. They have peak talent but no depth. Perhaps if I were in this situation, I'd trade peak talent for depth. It's the opposite of every single trade proposal Twins fans have been making for the last few years, where we try to trade 5 B+ prospects for an ace.
  21. Mike Frasier Law
    They did, but I wouldn't call it a roadmap to success generally speaking.
  22. Mike Frasier Law
    I'd love to see Cleveland sell off, but I think it's unlikely for a few reasons. First, they're still in the hunt for the AL Central title and are absolutely in the hunt for one of the WC slots. I don't think any team in their right mind sells when they have a reasonable shot at getting to the post season. Second, they still have team control over the vast majority of their best players for at least one more year. Arbitration might get expensive next year, but if I were them, I'd take a run this year and be buyers this offseason (like they should have been last offseason). If things go badly for them next year, then sell like hell.
  23. Mike Frasier Law
    According to Fangraphs rankings (WAR), Twins have 3 SP in the top 25. Odorizzi, Berrios, aaaaaand.... Martin Perez.
  24. Mike Frasier Law
    Re: Garver v Castro. I think the question comes down to what this team needs more from behind the plate - defense and managing the staff or a bat. I just perused all the different projections Fangraphs has (they have a lot!) and the general consensus seems to be that Garver's bat is significantly better, but is roughly offset (maybe more than offset) by his defense. They are within 1 win of each other on all the projections. So, do we need a bat or a glove behind home plate? IMO, I keep them both rostered as long as I can to see how much Garver can learn from Castro about defense and managing the pitching staff. That seems to me to be much easier to improve than hitting.
  25. Mike Frasier Law
    Fun article about the most enigmatic player: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/willians-astudillo-is-a-baseball-enigma/
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