Twins33

Same as Blyleven, it seems. They didn’t think either deserved it until they got into the MLB HOF.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2021/1/15/22227585/where-are-they-now-revisiting-players-the-braves-lost-during-ifa-scandal article before the 2021 season started. Looks like most are doing poorly

Yes, that’s why I’m not throwing him into the Arraez pile yet. Hopefully his wrist doesn’t become a multi-year thing that leads to surgery like Kirilloff’s did.

I agree with that. For me his bar is Butera. I think he has a better bat than Butera, not enormously better but better. If he becomes a successful backup for 10+ years then he will have at least met that Butera bar.

I guess I don’t see Miranda as that much of a miracle? Miranda was Arraez with a little more power before 2021. Now he’s Arraez with a lot more power, which I hope continues. It’s easier to teach a guy who has good plate discipline to hit for power, but it is not easy to teach a guy with power to have good plate discipline. Unfortunately for Rortvedt he’s not a power or plate discipline guy.

I think a lot of us are saying they are locks because if they aren’t the Twins still need to sign/trade for 4 SP which I absolutely do not see happening. I can see them signing/trading for 1-2, not 4. The reason Ober and Ryan are the two names brought up is because of what they have shown so far. They are both ready to be in the bigs. There are no guarantees that they won’t have setbacks but I believe in them way more than I believe in Bundy who has only had one good season (2020) in his career

You’re thinking of Goodrum. Baddoo was not cut.

Lewis, Winder, Miranda, Sands, Enlow, Vallimont I could see Scherff being taken but wouldn’t protect. If they did protect him, I’d be fine with it. Drops: Astudillo Cave Garlick (ok with keeping as 4th OF) Barnes (I don’t think he has what it takes to even be a RP) Garza Jr Minaya Smeltzer

I think Polanco has the most value but wouldn’t want him traded. I’ll say Arraez due to lack of defensive position and power.

I agree 100 percent. The White Sox aren’t any different from the Twins when it comes to results the last few seasons. They play really well vs the bad teams and are mediocre against teams that are actually good. I was shocked when they actually won one last night. I’m not sure it happens again. There really needs to be a more balanced schedule so the Twins and other ALC teams can see if they are truly for real each year or just pretending.

As is, no. I think Ryan and Ober need to be in the rotation next year guaranteed which means Ryan needs to be up ASAP. How they do in FA and trades will be more important than ever since they need so many pitchers. They need to go hard after guys who are way more than 4/5’s. My top choices are Rodon and Ray. Getting one of them would be a good start. I prefer both, but trying to be as realistic as I can. Trade for someone else (Means? Pablo Lopez?). Hard to know who would be available and seems to be slim pickings on the bad teams. I’m against signing guys who are 4/5 types next year. The Twins have had horrible health luck with their pitchers this year (I’m sure it’s the same for most teams) but I think they’ll have more than enough minors depth to handle 1-2 spots next year if something happens to Ober or Ryan. Too many injuries and it’ll turn into a lost season anyway so no reason to keep trying to waste money on the next Shoemaker/Bailey/Perez etc. So many of their attempts to just fill the rotation have backfired. Pineda has been the best one in recent years. I’d rather they take all that money they’d want to spend on three SP and spend it on one or two really good ones.

@twinkiesfan11

MLB Trade Rumors has a list they update though it hasn’t been in a week or so. Names I remember: Scherzer, Kershaw, Gausman, Stroman, Ray, Rodon, Wood, Hill. There are probably close to 10 names I wouldn’t mind the Twins signing when it’s usually just 2-3 any other offseason

I’m usually a bat first guy, if it’s a tie (always BPA). This year I am definitely in favor of going with a pitcher for their first pick. There are a handful I like so I hope at least one falls to the Twins and they actually take whoever that happens to be.

I’d be okay if the Twins gave him a Wheeler contract. Too much more than that would probably not be great. The way I see it, the Twins will probably need 3 SP and 3 RP next year. Two can be filled internally (Ober and Cano?) but the rest they may have to look at FA. If they have the same success rate as this past offseason then they aren’t going anywhere next year either. I can get behind trading Berrios, if needed, though I like him. Better that than him walking for nothing.

I wanted Gore or Wright. I still want Gore even with his struggles this year. I didn’t absolutely hate the Lewis pick but it’s not looking the greatest since it seems like he’ll be a CF vs a SS. It’s not bad if he’s a CF, but drafting a good SS one of these days needs to happen.

I’m not Seth, obviously but I believe he missed all of 2019 with a shoulder injury. Not sure what’s happening with it now but we know shoulder injuries are terrible for pitchers. He’s still listed as in the Twins org on the MiLB site

That is the exception. I heard somewhere, can’t remember where, that before the Nats did that...the last time a team started as bad as the Nats did and won the WS was 1914. So I wouldn’t count on it...

White Sox: Contender. Two to three of their starters will regress but the rotation will still be good especially if they give Kopech more starts. Their hitting has been good but less power than I’d expect so far. If they increase the power they could be the 2020 version of the Twins. Indians: Their pitching has been Bieber and not much else no matter what Civale’s ERA says. Hitting is bad but I think it will improve. If the rotation keeps this up they won’t even be a .500 team at the end of the year and we’ll have nothing to envy anymore. Royals: average to slightly above average pitching (mostly three starters) combined with average offense. I can easily see them being .500 and maybe even better than that. Tigers: 100 losses Twins: Average pitching at best (someone stop using a Maeda voodoo doll). Average hitting if they’re lucky. Buxton, Cruz, Arraez and Donaldson are carrying the team and if they’re not hitting then the team won’t win. Looks like a .500 team unless Maeda goes back to normal..not even 2020, just normal Maeda and other guys start hitting.

Gleeman said they are at 82%. He may have been quoting Dan Hayes, that part I don’t remember specifically but that’s the number coming from the Athletic reporters.

I expected the Tigers to have good stats for those three games, since I wasn’t able to watch. for the series: hitters wRC+ Tigers 75 indians 103 pitching: Tigers: 4.33 ERA, 6.06 FIP, 6.20 xFIP, 15 for K%, 11.5 BB% indians: 3.96ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.59 xFIP, 27.9 for K%, 12.5 BB% No good stats, just pure luck and luck will run out real quick if they keep pulling those numbers.

This is my take as well. I was watching on mute because I was in public so I have no idea how Dick and Justin called it. Ball off the bat, I thought it was a HR so I said “crap!” Then I saw Kepler actually there and got a little excited that it was going to be caught. Then of course ended up saying crap again. Mike Petriello said it had a 15% catch probability (this is first tweet but there is a thread) For me, the loss is 90% (at least) on Colome. The throw to second, this hard line drive. I think he’ll be fine but this was not a good first impression

That’s true. My memory of it is just knowing it was a huge issue in the minors and I thought it carried over. Would have been interesting what would have happened if he remained a starter. Probably would have been a 5 if he was lucky enough but no better than that.

Those are good facts to know, because my post was already getting way too long and I didn’t bother to look so thank you. With May, it was always the walks for me. I liked him and still do but he was never making it as a SP walking that many guys. He got better at that when he became a reliever and he’s actually the one reliever I absolutely wanted back. Colome takes his place but I’m greedy and would rather have both of them.

What I keep noticing is that you and I both keep mentioning the conversion of Twins players who were bad as starters. Thorpe hasn't failed as a starter yet, but those guys did over and over and over. Thorpe AA/AAA numbers in total: 28.9 K%, 6.9 BB%. He only played one game in AA in 2017 which screwed up his total FIP to 4.19. It's 3.55 without that one game. May: 23.5 K%, 10.6 BB%, 3.98 FIP. We all remember hoping he'd figure out that walk issue and he never did. Glen Perkins: 17.88 K%, 10.2 BB%, 5.65 FIP. Perk also had only one game in AAA in 2006 and it was bad so I gave him the same benefit as Thorpe. With these numbers it's a miracle he ended up turning his career around, but he is absolutely why I don't give up on failed starters until they are terrible in the BP too. Hendriks: 18 K%, 4.2 BB%, 3.02 FIP. Classic case of put him in the BP hoping for more K's because this guy won't make it as a starter striking out 18% or so if he does/did that in the majors. Otherwise he looked good. Duffey: 21.4 K%, 6.68 BB%, 3.60 FIP. Closest guy to Thorpe so far, but doesn't K guys as much. Rogers: 17.9 K%, 6 BB%, 3.12 FIP. Again, another guy that can't K people as a SP. These are just very basic stats obviously and they're not the be all end all but you can see how Thorpe is miles above every single one of them in results as a starter. Either they can't K people or can't stop walking people (Perk was both!). For fun: Berrios: 23.4 K%, 8%, 3.23 FIP (3.01 when also subtracting a one gamer). Berrios improved as time went on (2015-2017 seasons) Thorpe: 28.9 K%, 6.9 BB%, 4.19 FIP (3.55). Consistent year after year. Again, not the be all end all. There's "stuff" involved and many, many more stats. I get that you can't just say this guy will be this guaranteed because of stats. You can never guarantee anything in baseball. But I have always believed that Thorpe is just a step or so below Berrios and it looks like that "could" be true...which would hopefully put him as a 3 or 4 starter (more than likely a 4). After last year, my frustration with him was pretty high, but I still like him a lot. I'd like to see a Twins comp of a guy who is a good starter in the minors but was moved to the BP. I can't think of one, but I'm sure one probably does exist. As you can tell by this long post, I'm still not ready to give up on Thorpe as a starter. I do agree that there is not a spot for him or Dobnak in the rotation right now, though it's very debatable. That thought is also funny to me because I originally didn't want to hand the rotation spots to Dobnak or Thorpe this offseason. I wanted more depth from the inevitable injuries and IP increases, but if Dobnak can K more guys like he is doing and Thorpe is back to his usual self, I am now wanting it to happen. I expect at least two injures to our starters...which gives Thorpe and Dobnak spots (obviously I'm not wishing for injuries) so it's still possible. I'm sure the Twins agree with you though and think BP for Thorpe. And I don't necessarily disagree with it as a normal strategy as I said before...I just haven't seen a guy put up numbers like he has be put into the BP. Usually the pitchers are much worse than him, sometimes insanely worse than him.